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SoylentGreen
Heavy Crude
Joined: May 25, 2008
Posts: 168
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 Posted: Sun Jul 13, 2008 6:44 pm Post subject: Re: Oil will drop to $70 within 3 years' time: Kevin Petak |
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Oil Sands and some of the deep water extraction costs as much $50-55 a barrel.
We are depending more and more of the deep Oil deposits.Just on a current day average cost to produce 80 millon bbbls. No way is ever going below $110. |
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americandream
Light Sweet Crude
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Joined: Oct 18, 2004
Posts: 1927
Location: kiwibush
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| Posted: Sun Jul 13, 2008 7:03 pm Post subject: Re: Oil will drop to $70 within 3 years' time: Kevin Petak |
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Pond scum! Wat next? Bath water scum?
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Bugger me, I hear oil's runnin out mate! |
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zberry
Heavy Crude
Joined: Mar 21, 2006
Posts: 135
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| Posted: Sun Jul 13, 2008 8:41 pm Post subject: Re: Oil will drop to $70 within 3 years' time: Kevin Petak |
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| Quote: | | What kind of trend line are you using? |
To tell the truth, I haven't looked at a long-term chart for at least 6-8 months, but I'm sure I'm in the ballpark.
Get a monthly chart going back to 1995 or 1998 at least. Draw a trendline from the low at 10 or 15 in late 90s. Notice it touched the trendline on the January 2006 price correction, at about 55-60.
That's the worst-case scenario, IMO. |
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alpha480v
Heavy Crude
Joined: Jan 29, 2005
Posts: 318
Location: Western NY
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| Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 3:18 am Post subject: Re: Oil will drop to $70 within 3 years' time: Kevin Petak |
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| No way it's going to $70 again. |
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pstarr
Expert
Joined: Sep 27, 2004
Posts: 7089
Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain
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| Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 9:41 am Post subject: Re: Oil will drop to $70 within 3 years' time: Kevin Petak |
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| Brickhead wrote: | | A different way to produce oil, could mean a different commodity to buy. And the oil that's already in the ground might not be worth what it is now. Or this oil from pond scum gets grouped in with the oil in the ground and the price goes down because supply can keep up with demand. |
Did you look at the movie?
That stuff in the tubes is not a commodity. It is a precious refined product (much like perfume) that is dependent on petroleum at each complex step. The greenhouse structure, the pumps, refrigeration and filtration etc. all run on petroleum---not algae.
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 ree rah rip ram. sunofabitch godamn. hidey didey christ almighty. rah rah crap  |
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VMarcHart
Intermediate Crude
Joined: May 26, 2008
Posts: 884
Location: Chicago, IL
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| Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 10:46 am Post subject: Re: Oil will drop to $70 within 3 years' time: Kevin Petak |
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There's an economic rule of thumb that says a commodity lose value near the end of its life, ie the black-and-white TV, but it assumes there's a replacement, in this case, the color TV.
I doubt we'll be out of oil in 3 years, and that we'll have found a replacement.
That said, I'd like a little bit of whatever Mr. Petak is smoking. |
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