How then, do we move backwards? How does a society, with most of the people having no clue of future events, move from being dependent on a vast and intertwined network of goods and services produced by the indigenous people of whereever, to a local resource and renewable energy based society, and do so in the timeframe available (20-30 years using the most liberal extimates, 10-20 with resonable estimates, 5-10 with worst case scenarios), all the while prices on everything increasing, world politics getting more militaristic, governments continuously reducing civil liberties, shortages of goods on the market and weather patterns resembling bad Hollywood movies?
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 9:18 am Post subject: Re: THIS is the end. Peak Earth. Easter Island #2
Also, let's not forget that this report comes from the British Government.
The Brits can't stand the idea that they are losing their grip on the world and that their energy resources are gone. They go crazy over the idea that the countries of the South are taking over.
The Brits will use all possible forms of Green Imperialism to prevent a country like Brazil from becoming more powerful than the UK, because it owns huge land, biomass, water, agro-ecological and energy resources.
That's why they are now pushing all kinds of ideas like localism, rights for indigenous communities, the environmental footprint of agriculture, etc... in order to block progress in these countries.
Luckily, a country like Brazil no longer gives a fvkk about what the UK thinks. Because it doesn't have to. It works with the Chinese, with the South Africans, with the Indians. With the societies of the future.
Seriously, Green Imperialism is one of the newest ways used by the West to try to keep rivals down. Until recently, the Human Rights discourse played the same imperialist role. _________________ The Beginning is Near!
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 9:23 am Post subject: Re: THIS is the end. Peak Earth. Easter Island #2
lorenzo wrote:
shortonoil wrote:
lorenzo said:
Quote:
I'd kindly like to call serious BS on this.
Scientists (that is: not ideologues), have found that:
-by 2050, when population stands at 9 billion
-we can produce enough food, fodder, fiber and forest products
-to meet demand
etc.
What batch of witches do you intend to burn to supply the energy to produce these miraculous miracles. That energy sure isn’t going to be coming from oil!
Do you honestly think top scientists are so stupid as to not to include this question in their research?
Sounds like a good idea. No need to build new delivery infrastructure, rather the witches are self-propelled and will fly their own brooms into the power plant. What is the energy return on a burned witch?
I wonder if they use co-products in their system? (Like the brewers yeast in corn ethanol facilities) Do they gasify the robes? Do you get extra lipids from the toads? _________________ ree rah rip ram. sunofabitch godamn. hidey didey christ almighty. rah rah crap
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 9:30 am Post subject: Re: THIS is the end. Peak Earth. Easter Island #2
So it's 'Green Imperialism' that prevents the 3rd world from realizing it's biofuel dream?
Why wouldn't BP want a piece? Didn't BP get in and then get out of this scam? _________________ ree rah rip ram. sunofabitch godamn. hidey didey christ almighty. rah rah crap
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 9:50 am Post subject: Re: THIS is the end. Peak Earth. Easter Island #2
I live in timber country and I am seeing the opposite effect. It takes beaucoup energy to engage in industrial timbering, at least here in Northern California. Very large diesel machines traveling further into the woods to extract smaller trees with lessening energy return. As we slide down the slope of the petroleum curve this particular kind of life will disappear, not accelerate. Who will pay the timber workers to live where the work is?
This entire thesis is backwards. The reason we have despoiled the earth at such a magnificent rate recently is because, not in spite of, cheap petroleum. The natural world is a hard place. Parasites, predators, cold and wet, dry and hot, etc. all attack the fragile human body. Only cars, trucks, pumps, power, heat and refrigeration make it possible to live in and ruin the earth.
People will flock with great rapidity into the cities for a bit of food and companionship. The country will empty out and nature will return. _________________ ree rah rip ram. sunofabitch godamn. hidey didey christ almighty. rah rah crap
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 9:54 am Post subject: Re: THIS is the end. Peak Earth. Easter Island #2
lorenzo said:
Quote:
Do you honestly think top scientists are so stupid as to not to include this question in their research?
Yes of course, that must be Plan B. We are all familiar with Plan B.
Didn’t Simmons say we don’t have a Plan B. Silly guy! TOP scientist couldn’t have forgotten to include Plan B! Some knuckled headed grad student probably just forgot to include it in the report!
Joined: Oct 23, 2005 Posts: 1653 Location: East of Eden
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 9:59 am Post subject: Re: THIS is the end. Peak Earth. Easter Island #2
I wonder what the effect of peak oil will be on this issue. My intuition has long told me that the plunge of energy availability would launch the greatest scramble to "develop" resources the world has ever seen - forests included. But certain things have been trending slightly away from that: for one thing, the world is catching on to the ethanol/biofuel scam much more quickly than I would have thought possible. I always figured people would do anything to get their fuel, but maybe not if that fuel is competing with food. For another thing, Heineken and others are reporting that timber is doing poorly because of fuel prices. Timber is an energy-intensive industry, and the runup of fuel prices may ultimately make it more difficult for developers to even get at some of the remoter regions of the wild.
Things like these give me some slight hope. If some of the forests can survive this century, it will mean the world to our descendents. _________________ "If a path to the better there be, it begins with a full look at the worst." — Thomas Hardy
Joined: Oct 23, 2005 Posts: 1653 Location: East of Eden
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 10:01 am Post subject: Re: THIS is the end. Peak Earth. Easter Island #2
pstarr, we're on the same page. I hope you're right. _________________ "If a path to the better there be, it begins with a full look at the worst." — Thomas Hardy
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 10:06 am Post subject: Re: THIS is the end. Peak Earth. Easter Island #2
coyote wrote:
I wonder what the effect of peak oil will be on this issue. My intuition has long told me that the plunge of energy availability would launch the greatest scramble to "develop" resources the world has ever seen - forests included. But certain things have been trending slightly away from that: for one thing, the world is catching on to the ethanol/biofuel scam much more quickly than I would have thought possible. I always figured people would do anything to get their fuel, but maybe not if that fuel is competing with food. For another thing, Heineken and others are reporting that timber is doing poorly because of fuel prices. Timber is an energy-intensive industry, and the runup of fuel prices may ultimately make it more difficult for developers to even get at some of the remoter regions of the wild.
Things like these give me some slight hope. If some of the forests can survive this century, it will mean the world to our descendents.
I've said it here a hundred times. People will flock to cities and bread will be shipped in by rail.
Think Lagos, Mexico City, Cairo, Calcutta. The teeming masses will leave the countryside alone.
I am seeing it already here in Humboldt Co. Country land is getting cheaper and city land dearer.
The woods will heal. _________________ ree rah rip ram. sunofabitch godamn. hidey didey christ almighty. rah rah crap
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 10:18 am Post subject: Re: THIS is the end. Peak Earth. Easter Island #2
lorenzo wrote:
I'd kindly like to call serious BS on this.
Scientists (that is: not ideologues), have found that:
-by 2050, when population stands at 9 billion
-we can produce enough food, fodder, fiber and forest products
-to meet demand
-while having enough land left to grow biomass for the production of 1500 Exajoules worth of energy (that is: 4 times as much energy as we consume on the planet today)
-without cutting a single tree (a strict no-deforestation scenario), and while keeping 10% of all land on the planet as conservation areas
The scenario I refer to - made by the Copernicus Institute - is now the official backbone of the FAO's projection models on food, fiber, fodder and fuel potential.
It sounds like a wishy washy pipe dream to me.
I'd like a link tot he study if you have it. _________________ "Battle not with monsters, lest ye become a monster, and if you gaze into the
Abyss, the Abyss gazes also into you."
Ammo at a gunfight is like bubblegum in grade school: If you havent brought enough for everyone, you're in trouble
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 10:46 am Post subject: Re: THIS is the end. Peak Earth. Easter Island #2
aflurry wrote:
Specop_007 wrote:
Hell, my 7 year old now probably knows more about gardening then 3/4 of our subdivision.
agriculture is every bit part of the problem in this context.
Actually I think our blind faith in "Science" is the big part of the problem.
We've cheated our way through a lot of things these past six decades and now finally the bill is being presented.
But that's where I do see the biggest problem too: we have destroyed a lot of farm land with "modern agriculture", in a way that is no longer sustainable, much less so once the cheap carbon is gone.
Reading "The Omnivores Dilemma" recently it just hit home just how screwed we are, forget about not having gas or diesel to truck the "food" to the supermarket. We're screwed right at the beginnig of the foodchain where the corn is grown.
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 11:25 am Post subject: Re: THIS is the end. Peak Earth. Easter Island #2
aflurry wrote:
Specop_007 wrote:
Hell, my 7 year old now probably knows more about gardening then 3/4 of our subdivision.
agriculture is every bit part of the problem in this context.
Thats the problem, and dont take this the wrong way...
Those on the outside of the agricultural system dont really understand how it works. Its similiar to telling a structural engineer the problem with buildings is they all can collapse in high wind. Well, theres different ways to build a building...
By the same token, theres different ways to farm. Many farmers even in America are moving to a more sustainable farming practice.
Just because slah and burn is bad doesnt mean every farmer is practicing it.
My son can tell you some plants are friends and some are not friends, and you should plant friends together. He can tell you some prefer to be planted in cooler periods (Summer, fall) and some prefer to be planted in the dead of summer.
The point is to understand theres many ways to farm and promote those that are environmentally friendly while maximizing yields. _________________ "Battle not with monsters, lest ye become a monster, and if you gaze into the
Abyss, the Abyss gazes also into you."
Ammo at a gunfight is like bubblegum in grade school: If you havent brought enough for everyone, you're in trouble
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 11:28 am Post subject: Re: THIS is the end. Peak Earth. Easter Island #2
Snowrunner wrote:
aflurry wrote:
Specop_007 wrote:
Hell, my 7 year old now probably knows more about gardening then 3/4 of our subdivision.
agriculture is every bit part of the problem in this context.
Actually I think our blind faith in "Science" is the big part of the problem.
We've cheated our way through a lot of things these past six decades and now finally the bill is being presented.
But that's where I do see the biggest problem too: we have destroyed a lot of farm land with "modern agriculture", in a way that is no longer sustainable, much less so once the cheap carbon is gone.
Reading "The Omnivores Dilemma" recently it just hit home just how screwed we are, forget about not having gas or diesel to truck the "food" to the supermarket. We're screwed right at the beginnig of the foodchain where the corn is grown.
Land is amazing resilient.
It only asks for one thing, the one which we cannot give it.
Time. _________________ "Battle not with monsters, lest ye become a monster, and if you gaze into the
Abyss, the Abyss gazes also into you."
Ammo at a gunfight is like bubblegum in grade school: If you havent brought enough for everyone, you're in trouble
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 12:29 pm Post subject: Re: THIS is the end. Peak Earth. Easter Island #2
lorenzo wrote:
Do you honestly think top scientists are so stupid as to not to include this question in their research?
They are not stupid but rather deluded.
For example they are expecting phosphorus fertilizer to last forever, they are forgetting about soil erosion, they are forgetting water shortages, they are assuming for pesticides and herbicides to be available in ever increasing quantities, they are assuming oil for running agriculture machinery to be here forever etc.
Plain delusion.
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