Joined: Apr 27, 2007 Posts: 4262 Location: The Great Sonoran Desert
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 12:34 pm Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
Iaato wrote:
I'm not sure I believe this, and I don't want to lose my bet with Rocc about LEH just because FNM and FRE got there first. I still believe the Fed and Co. will bail out those entities that they deem important to the structure of the economy, and leave the rest to get plowed under in takeovers. But who will those entities be?
Nope - the well is dry. Citi took a guido loan from Dubai a few months ago...
Don't feel bad Iaato - you won't be the only one who loses a bet with me. _________________ "There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
"... hope is a rotten-thighed whore" Niko Kazantzakis
Joined: May 19, 2005 Posts: 762 Location: Merry Ol' USA
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 12:49 pm Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
Eli wrote:
Agreed Specky
JD no link it came off of News Wire, and the stock is trading again.
Hey by the end of the day they may wish that it had been stopped! _________________ After fueling up their cars, Twyman says they bowed their heads and asked God for cheaper gas.There was no immediate answer, but he says other motorists joined in and the service station owner didn't run them off.
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 1:16 pm Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
You have to admit, its pretty damned amusing watching the reactions to something that never was come about from something that never should hgave been cease to exist.
To clarify for those that dont get it.....
Money that never really "was" (It was just all numbers on computers) that came about from investment vehicles that should have never existed and the whole affair is going up in smoke and ceasing to be.... _________________ "Battle not with monsters, lest ye become a monster, and if you gaze into the
Abyss, the Abyss gazes also into you."
Ammo at a gunfight is like bubblegum in grade school: If you havent brought enough for everyone, you're in trouble
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 1:18 pm Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
jdmartin wrote:
Eli wrote:
Agreed Specky
JD no link it came off of News Wire, and the stock is trading again.
Hey by the end of the day they may wish that it had been stopped!
Too late in the day. If it doesnt happen by noon it wont happen till tomorrow.
Rmemeber the old adage..
"All deposits recieved after 2 PM wil be credited on next days business." _________________ "Battle not with monsters, lest ye become a monster, and if you gaze into the
Abyss, the Abyss gazes also into you."
Ammo at a gunfight is like bubblegum in grade school: If you havent brought enough for everyone, you're in trouble
Joined: Mar 12, 2007 Posts: 890 Location: As close as I can get to the beginning of the pipe.
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 1:19 pm Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
roccman wrote:
Don't feel bad Iaato - you won't be the only one who loses a bet with me.
_________________ "For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth; to know the worst and provide for it." --Patrick Henry
This guy made the correct call on Indymac on Monday before it was public.
All righty then, for those of us who basically live paycheck to paycheck with a Wamu account; will the FDIC kick in in time for us not to miss our monthlies? Or will we be forced to wait weeks?
In that case, the $100k threshold doesn't really matter if most are one paycheck away from being broke.
Also, I'm assuming that a cashier's check is the best way to get money out and into another bank's hands - is this a correct line of thinking?
I think I'll be switching to my other account starting tomorrow. _________________ "It's called the American Dream because you'd have to be asleep to believe it."
Joined: Mar 12, 2007 Posts: 890 Location: As close as I can get to the beginning of the pipe.
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 1:52 pm Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
TB, you asked what the next inflection point would be. Here's a guess.
We're going to have many many banks failing from here on out. But the Fed has a formula now for dealing with it. Bail out the key big ones, rollover the small ones into the big ones, and keep printing money for FDIC to use. This might take a long time, with all of the delaying/stall tactics that the Fed and the Treasury are using. We have learned how easy it is to conceal the damages, at least for a while. And everything always takes longer than predicted in a complex system.
I think that the next key inflection point will be created when the petrodollar loses its grip. Previous administrations had real reason to be fearful of the middle east decoupling their oil trade from the dollar. The dollar has maintained its status because of our empire and because one needed USD to buy oil. Once the dollar is cut loose, it truly will become as valuable as toilet paper. Its backing will disappear, and it lose most of its value overnight. When that happens, we enter hyperinflation with a vengeance.
Certainly we've all discussed this on this thread, among the many other variables swirling in this increasingly chaotic system. I think this will be a key driver. It won't be something that happens internally. The coup de grace will come from the outside. Again, as usual, it's all about the oil. _________________ "For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth; to know the worst and provide for it." --Patrick Henry
Joined: Jun 18, 2005 Posts: 3766 Location: In a van down by the river
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 1:56 pm Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
Emer if you are below the 100,000 limits you really don't have much to worry about right now.
The FDIC still has you covered, if things get rolling the FDIC gets in trouble and then the dollar really craps out. Then it will be a bank holiday time.
At this point I am thinking of upping my cash on hand to get through any craziness.
This guy made the correct call on Indymac on Monday before it was public.
So where are we...I say PANIC
_________________ "There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
"... hope is a rotten-thighed whore" Niko Kazantzakis
Joined: Dec 02, 2005 Posts: 6284 Location: Oil-addicted Southern Californucopia
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 2:15 pm Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
Iaato wrote:
...I think that the next key inflection point will be created when the petrodollar loses its grip. Previous administrations had real reason to be fearful of the middle east decoupling their oil trade from the dollar. The dollar has maintained its status because of our empire and because one needed USD to buy oil. Once the dollar is cut loose, it truly will become as valuable as toilet paper. Its backing will disappear, and it lose most of its value overnight. When that happens, we enter hyperinflation with a vengeance...
That's all absolutely correct, of course. However, the key point here is whether or not the global powers that be would actually cut the dollar loose. Weak as it is at the moment, and dim as its future might be, who knows what might ensue if the world abandoned it? What would be a motivation for jettisoning it? How would anyone know that such a move couldn't backfire catastrophically?
Oh, and by the way, the empire ain't what it used to be, but it's still largely there, you know. _________________ "Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
"Petroleum-exporting nations from Saudi Arabia to Russia are not only charging Americans record high prices for fuel, they are also poised to become the biggest creditor to the U.S. government.
Holdings of Treasuries by oil producers and institutions such as U.K. banks that are proxies for Middle East nations rose 44 percent this year to $510.8 billion through April, four times faster than the rest of the world, according to the Treasury Department's most recent data. At the current pace, they'll surpass Japan, which holds $592.2 billion, as the largest owner this month....
Questions of whether purchases by foreigners are a threat to U.S. economic sovereignty are again being raised. The Chrysler Building was acquired last week by the Abu Dhabi Investment Council for an undisclosed price. Last month a Dubai fund was part of a group that paid $2.8 billion for the General Motors Building in Manhattan.
``It's a net transfer of wealth from the United States to the oil exporting economies on a very, very significant scale,'' said Brad Setser, an economist with the Council on Foreign Relations and former acting director of the Treasury's Office of International Monetary and Financial Policy. ``That is a reality. Anybody who is pursuing a policy with large deficits is implicitly planning on relying on demand from those countries.'
' _________________ "For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth; to know the worst and provide for it." --Patrick Henry
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