Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 2:34 pm Post subject: Re: Bush says OCS has 77 billion barrels of oil
Even the oil industry can't provide a valid number. They may offer a big reserve "potential" (makes the share holders very happy to hear such pronoucements). I've been a petroleum geologist for 33 years and can tell you exactly what "potential" means in oil patch lingo: I can offer any number I want and you have no data to prove I'm wrong.
There are lots of examples I can offer to show you huge errors (both optimistic and pessimistic) when it comes to predicting "potential". Here's the best: The North Sea oil fields were a huge boom to the UK economy as well as the rest of the EU (and they blew the opportunity to modify their economy away from oil just like the US did when oil hit $10/bbl in 1986). About 25 billion bbl of oil produced the last I heard. But are you aware that the first major N Sea field was found with the 93rd well drilled out there? Not the 9th...not the 3rd....yes...the 93rd well. I've seen many fields discovered, drilled up and put on production. And even at that point I've seen ultimate recovery estimates be in error by 50% either way. On the other hand, my current client spent $148 million on a dry hole (yes...just one hole in the ground) last fall in the Deep Water Gulf of Mexico. Do you think they thought there was some good potential there or just didn't know how to get rid of so much money so fast. Potential...potential...potential...how I love to hate that word (as Cher once sang).
So when you here someone minimize or maximize "potential" reserves bear in mind: they can't tell you for sure IF oil exists under this spot or that spot but they can be very sure how much is or isn't there under that spot. That's because they use the word "potential" as opposed to the word "is". (Please...no Clinton jokes regarding the definition of "is"). Sorta like: I can't be sure if I have a mouse in my cupped hands but I'm sure he weighs 1.2 ounces...if he is actually there...or not. Maybe. I think. I'm almost sure. Oh, I know...I just got a report from the USMS (that's the Mouse Survey). They say it ways between 0.3 oz and 3.6 oz if, in fact, there is a mouse in my hands.
I've dealt with exploration geologist's BS for too long to take any numbers thown out as serious. And as far as GW helping out the oil patch it's like having Osama bin Laden help you buy an airplane tickert...please don't help us anymore.
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 3:04 pm Post subject: Re: Bush says OCS has 77 billion barrels of oil
It could take at least a decade before these deepwater GOM resources start producing. Not including delays for availability of deepwater rigs, the average time to develop deepwater resources is 7.8 years.
Joined: Apr 09, 2007 Posts: 6374 Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 3:28 pm Post subject: Re: Bush says OCS has 77 billion barrels of oil
tsakach wrote:
It could take at least a decade before these deepwater GOM resources start producing. Not including delays for availability of deepwater rigs, the average time to develop deepwater resources is 7.8 years.
Thats why its such a shame that Congress banned exploration on the OCS 30 years ago, and why it is foolish that the dems who control Congress now continue to block and obstruct and delay exploration on the OCS now even though the world has reached peak oil.
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 3:31 pm Post subject: Re: Bush says OCS has 77 billion barrels of oil
Plantagenet wrote:
Why is it so hard for people to accept the fact that there are likely significant deposits of oil on the OCS??
Enough to bet the farm on?
Or energy policy on?
Get real! _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Joined: Apr 09, 2007 Posts: 6374 Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 3:51 pm Post subject: Re: Bush says OCS has 77 billion barrels of oil
Far-sighted Mathew Simmons really had the best take on this, as he has had on other peak oil issues.
Simmons suggested 20 years ago that the US federal government should do detailed seismic on its OCS to inventory structures and identify prospective oil lease sale sites, so the land could be promptly leased when the OCS ban was overturned.
Sadly, Simmons' advice was ignored.
Now we have people like Sen. Harry "oil makes you sick" Reid in charge of Congress, and the delays are likely to continue even though almost anyone who doesn't have a government car is becoming painfully aware that the world is dealing with peak oil.
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 3:57 pm Post subject: Re: Bush says OCS has 77 billion barrels of oil
Big error on my part here. What Bush actually said was that "experts estimate that the OCS can provide 10 yrs of America's current annual oil production." Not consumption. CNBC captioned it as "OCS could produce 10 years worth of oil."
I walked in just as it came up. After replaying the video I caught the error.
Joined: Oct 11, 2005 Posts: 415 Location: Arizona, USA
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 4:00 pm Post subject: Re: Bush says OCS has 77 billion barrels of oil
The sooner we start drilling everywhere, the sooner the public will figure out that it won't solve anything, and then we can move past this issue, perhaps on to the next useless solution. Let the loose the capitalist dogs. I'm tired of hearing them bark.
Joined: Apr 09, 2007 Posts: 6374 Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 4:10 pm Post subject: Re: Bush says OCS has 18 billion barrels of oil
No one knows if the OCS contains 18 billion barrels of oil (Bush's estimate), 77 billion barrels (Monte's just redacted estimate) or 116 billion barrels of oil (the uppermost USGS estimate).
Mathew Simmons is right......we should at least find out the scientific facts about the OCS.....where are the structures, how big are they, and how much oil is likely to be there.
IMHO, it was very short-sighted of the Congress to block all exploration of the OCS for 30 years.
Shouldn't the US Congress act promptly and at least approve finding out the basic scientific facts about our land?
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 4:13 pm Post subject: Re: Bush says OCS has 18 billion barrels of oil
Quote:
What Bush actually said was that "experts estimate that the OCS can provide 10 yrs of America's current annual oil production."
"Bush says offshore drilling could yield up to 18 billion barrels of oil over time, although it would take years for production to start."
Welcome to the spin zone!
The numbers we want to see is how many barrels per day and when?
It's 1 to 2 mbpd in 2030 according to the EIA report on the OCS potential. About an hour or two of America's daily consumption in 2030 using EIA's projection of 22.8 mbpd.
22.8/24 = .95 barrels per hour
Not enough to offset decline of existing fields and reduce import growth. Maybe slow the rate of growth of imports. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 4:16 pm Post subject: Re: Bush says OCS has 18 billion barrels of oil
Plantagenet wrote:
IMHO, it was very short-sighted of the Congress to block all exploration of the OCS for 30 years.
And it was long-sighted to consume half of the world's oil in only 125 years?
I'd say it was looking to the future to conserve those resources. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Joined: Apr 09, 2007 Posts: 6374 Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 4:21 pm Post subject: Re: Bush says OCS has 18 billion barrels of oil
MonteQuest wrote:
The numbers we want to see is how many barrels per day and when?
It's 1 to 2 mbpd in 2030 according to the EIA report on the OCS potential. About an hour or two of America's daily consumption in 2030 using EIA's projection of 22.8 mbpd.
22.8/24 = .95 barrels per hour
Not enough to offset decline of existing fields and reduce import growth. Maybe slow the rate of growth of imports.
Anyone can multiply through with any assumptions they prefer, but no one actually knows how much oil is there...not Bush, not the EIA, and not the USGS because the OCS areas haven't been studied or drilled.
One of the most basic things necessary to make a good decision is knowledge about the facts of the case.
We DON'T KNOW what is on the OCS because Congress blocked it off 30 years ago.
Of all the estimates by all these groups, I would put the most credence in the USGS because their estimates are made by scientists who are world class experts in petroleum geology. George Bush does not have expertise in petroleum geology, and the EIA analyses are done by economists (the same people who regularly disprove peak oil using commodity models).
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