Bush says OCS has 18 billion barrels of oil

GASMON

One for Golem !!!!!!!

Gasmon
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Been there, Done that, Bought the tee-shirt

skeptik

ROCKMAN

Even the oil industry can't provide a valid number. They may offer a big reserve "potential" (makes the share holders very happy to hear such pronoucements). I've been a petroleum geologist for 33 years and can tell you exactly what "potential" means in oil patch lingo: I can offer any number I want and you have no data to prove I'm wrong.

There are lots of examples I can offer to show you huge errors (both optimistic and pessimistic) when it comes to predicting "potential". Here's the best: The North Sea oil fields were a huge boom to the UK economy as well as the rest of the EU (and they blew the opportunity to modify their economy away from oil just like the US did when oil hit $10/bbl in 1986). About 25 billion bbl of oil produced the last I heard. But are you aware that the first major N Sea field was found with the 93rd well drilled out there? Not the 9th...not the 3rd....yes...the 93rd well. I've seen many fields discovered, drilled up and put on production. And even at that point I've seen ultimate recovery estimates be in error by 50% either way. On the other hand, my current client spent $148 million on a dry hole (yes...just one hole in the ground) last fall in the Deep Water Gulf of Mexico. Do you think they thought there was some good potential there or just didn't know how to get rid of so much money so fast. Potential...potential...potential...how I love to hate that word (as Cher once sang).

So when you here someone minimize or maximize "potential" reserves bear in mind: they can't tell you for sure IF oil exists under this spot or that spot but they can be very sure how much is or isn't there under that spot. That's because they use the word "potential" as opposed to the word "is". (Please...no Clinton jokes regarding the definition of "is"). Sorta like: I can't be sure if I have a mouse in my cupped hands but I'm sure he weighs 1.2 ounces...if he is actually there...or not. Maybe. I think. I'm almost sure. Oh, I know...I just got a report from the USMS (that's the Mouse Survey). They say it ways between 0.3 oz and 3.6 oz if, in fact, there is a mouse in my hands.

I've dealt with exploration geologist's BS for too long to take any numbers thown out as serious. And as far as GW helping out the oil patch it's like having Osama bin Laden help you buy an airplane tickert...please don't help us anymore.

tsakach · Heavy Crude Joined: Mar 09, 2005 Posts: 326

It could take at least a decade before these deepwater GOM resources start producing. Not including delays for availability of deepwater rigs, the average time to develop deepwater resources is 7.8 years.

Deepwater Concept Selection and Records Poster

Plantagenet

Plantagenet

MonteQuest

Plantagenet

Plantagenet

Far-sighted Mathew Simmons really had the best take on this, as he has had on other peak oil issues.

Simmons suggested 20 years ago that the US federal government should do detailed seismic on its OCS to inventory structures and identify prospective oil lease sale sites, so the land could be promptly leased when the OCS ban was overturned.

Sadly, Simmons' advice was ignored.

Now we have people like Sen. Harry "oil makes you sick" Reid in charge of Congress, and the delays are likely to continue even though almost anyone who doesn't have a government car is becoming painfully aware that the world is dealing with peak oil. Cool

MonteQuest · Last edited by MonteQuest on Mon Jul 14, 2008 4:03 pm; edited 1 time in total

Big error on my part here. What Bush actually said was that "experts estimate that the OCS can provide 10 yrs of America's current annual oil production." Not consumption. CNBC captioned it as "OCS could produce 10 years worth of oil."

I walked in just as it came up. After replaying the video I caught the error.

My bad.

5.1mbpd x 365=1.8 x 10 = 18 billion barrels

http://www.cnbc.com/id/25674997
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Windmills

The sooner we start drilling everywhere, the sooner the public will figure out that it won't solve anything, and then we can move past this issue, perhaps on to the next useless solution. Let the loose the capitalist dogs. I'm tired of hearing them bark.

Plantagenet

No one knows if the OCS contains 18 billion barrels of oil (Bush's estimate), 77 billion barrels (Monte's just redacted estimate) or 116 billion barrels of oil (the uppermost USGS estimate).

Mathew Simmons is right......we should at least find out the scientific facts about the OCS.....where are the structures, how big are they, and how much oil is likely to be there.

IMHO, it was very short-sighted of the Congress to block all exploration of the OCS for 30 years.

Shouldn't the US Congress act promptly and at least approve finding out the basic scientific facts about our land?

MonteQuest

MonteQuest

Plantagenet