Joined: Dec 02, 2005 Posts: 6417 Location: Oil-addicted Southern Californucopia
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 2:25 pm Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
Eli wrote:
I disagree we are just now starting the fear stage.
People in general in the US are not half a scared as they should be about what is happening.
My wife and my boss are at the denial stage. I'm hovering somewhere around fear.
From what I see and hear, I'd say that among the people who have at least a slight amount of awareness that something is going on (and most don't, of course), pretty much all of them seem to be in one of those two stages. _________________ "Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 2:54 pm Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
Zardoz wrote:
My wife and my boss are at the denial stage. I'm hovering somewhere around fear.
From what I see and hear, I'd say that among the people who have at least a slight amount of awareness that something is going on (and most don't, of course), pretty much all of them seem to be in one of those two stages.
I am not even in the US and I feel "trapped" and kinda "fearful" as I have no idea what the fallout of this will be.....
Some other people I know are pretty much at the same stage. there are many more though who seem to be utterly obvlivious to what is going on.....
Joined: Mar 12, 2007 Posts: 1004 Location: As close as I can get to the beginning of the pipe.
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 2:55 pm Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
Zardoz wrote:
That's all absolutely correct, of course. However, the key point here is whether or not the global powers that be would actually cut the dollar loose. Weak as it is at the moment, and dim as its future might be, who knows what might ensue if the world abandoned it? What would be a motivation for jettisoning it? How would anyone know that such a move couldn't backfire catastrophically?
Good questions, Zardoz. And my knowledge about currencies would fill a small teacup, so someone correct me on this if I'm wrong. But coupling of middle eastern currencies with the USD is an ongoing problem for them because the inflation that we are creating rubs off on them. Eventually the inflation will get unbearable, and the Saudis use their dollars to buy all of our good stuff and then switch to another currency for an oil peg.
And could it all backfire catastrophically? Well, what isn't backfiring catastrophically right now?
edit: Oh, and I think most of J6P are still somewhere between denial and fear, at that point where your stomach just plummets down to your feet and you feel that rush of adrenaline pumping through your arteries. _________________ "When fascism comes to America it will be wrapped in a flag and carrying a cross." --Sinclair Lewis
Treasuries gained, pushing two-year note yields down the most in more than two weeks, as stocks fell on concern that U.S. banking-system losses may be worsening.
Predictions of wider losses overshadowed the Treasury Department's support of Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. Washington Mutual Inc. posted its biggest drop ever and National City Corp. tumbled to a 24-year low after last week's collapse of IndyMac Bancorp Inc. spurred speculation that more regional banks may be short of capital.
"There's a significant amount of grave concern about the banking sector,'' said T.J. Marta, a fixed-income strategist at RBC Capital Markets in New York, the investment-banking arm of Canada's biggest lender. "Now what we're having is solvency concerns.''
It may be only days away... _________________ "Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 3:18 pm Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
Eli wrote:
I disagree we are just now starting the fear stage.
People in general in the US are not half a scared as they should be about what is happening.
What good does fear do? For many (most?) of us, there's not a hell of a lot that we can do at this point. We just have to ride the train until it crashes. I've done the best that I can do to prep and have my assets in conservative places. IMHO, there's just not a lot more that we can do.
After a tense weekend that raised further doubt about the strength of the U.S. mortgage market, the stock market drew some reassurance from news that the Treasury and Federal Reserve stood ready to come to the rescue of mortgage finance giants Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.
But, despite a relatively mild Monday selloff, there was no question that a bear market is well underway, the latest sign that the economy is probably in recession. If history is any guide, both the economy and the stock market have a way to go before they hit bottom.
Stock prices have been near bear-market levels for weeks but officially landed there last week when the broad Standard and Poor's 500 index fell to more than 20 percent below its October peak level. The more narrow Dow Jones industrial average already had fallen more than 20 percent from its latest peak, the standard definition of a bear market.
_________________ "Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
Joined: Apr 27, 2007 Posts: 4353 Location: The Great Sonoran Desert
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 4:07 pm Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
Quote:
"There's a significant amount of graveconcernabout the banking sector,'' ...
Hmmmm...
"grave concern" = "panic" ??
Maybe ...maybe not, but to put a stop watch from fear to panic one would need to be watching the thousandths position.
In the end - by the time one panics - it is already too late...so it really does not matter if we spend anytime at fear. _________________ "There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
"... hope is a rotten-thighed whore" Niko Kazantzakis
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5905 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 4:16 pm Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
Zardoz wrote:
Iaato wrote:
...I think that the next key inflection point will be created when the petrodollar loses its grip. Previous administrations had real reason to be fearful of the middle east decoupling their oil trade from the dollar. The dollar has maintained its status because of our empire and because one needed USD to buy oil. Once the dollar is cut loose, it truly will become as valuable as toilet paper. Its backing will disappear, and it lose most of its value overnight. When that happens, we enter hyperinflation with a vengeance...
That's all absolutely correct, of course. However, the key point here is whether or not the global powers that be would actually cut the dollar loose. Weak as it is at the moment, and dim as its future might be, who knows what might ensue if the world abandoned it? What would be a motivation for jettisoning it? How would anyone know that such a move couldn't backfire catastrophically?
Oh, and by the way, the empire ain't what it used to be, but it's still largely there, you know.
There comes a point that the sinking US dollar can not be saved: that would be when the US trade deficit gets to somewhere about $900 billion to $1 trillion per year. The rest of the world just doesn't have enough savings to finance any more than that. A few months ago it had been running at about $750 billion rate, so the dollar is hanging on for dear life.
The annualized rate may well be about $850 billion per year now, and climbing as the price of oil moves higher. _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Last edited by DantesPeak on Mon Jul 14, 2008 4:23 pm; edited 1 time in total
This guy made the correct call on Indymac on Monday before it was public.
WaMu has a branch in my town.
I advised friends/associates that WaMu may go bankrupt and if they are lucky enough to have more than $100,000 there, to remove it immeadiately - if not sooner.
Still I don't think such a probable event will register for most until they see the FDIC form letter taped to their branch office door that the bank is closed. _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 4:38 pm Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
Iaato said:
Quote:
We're going to have many many banks failing from here on out. But the Fed has a formula now for dealing with it. Bail out the key big ones, rollover the small ones into the big ones, and keep printing money for FDIC to use. This might take a long time, with all of the delaying/stall tactics that the Fed and the Treasury are using. We have learned how easy it is to conceal the damages, at least for a while. And everything always takes longer than predicted in a complex system.
Complex systems are also highly susceptible to chaotic collapse. Remember Galloping Gertie, the Tacoma Narrow bridge. It swung for hours in high winds, but came apart in minutes.
Complex economic systems in the digital age have the potential to act similarly. We rarely fully comprehend the ramifications of the technology that we employ.
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 4:58 pm Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
shortonoil wrote:
We rarely fully comprehend the ramifications of the technology that we employ.
Sounds like something the scary control voice from The Outer Limits would say.
Then comes a chilling morality tale. Who knows what ours will be when this is all over? Crises do enrich culture, and ours seems to have stagnated of late.
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 5:11 pm Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
I just called my boss to stop automatic deposit into my WaMu account.
I'll take my check over to my C Union for now and cash it and pay for my goods with cash. I think we may just use the credit union until things start looking bad for them.
Here we goooooooo!
catbox _________________ President Bush: “There’s no question about it. Wall Street got drunk—that’s one of the reasons I asked you to turn off the TV cameras. It got drunk, and now it’s got a hangover."
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 5:27 pm Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
The effects have hit a lot of places. One customer told me Saturday that the Cummins Engine plant nearby that builds diesel engines for light trucks is down from over 700 engines per day, to 320 a WEEK, or, under 10% capacity.
"Trickle Down Economics"?
And we have a National City Bank branch in town. I'll be watching it closely. _________________ Local fix-it guy..
From: HiddenBling
Date: Fri, May 23 2008 12:18 pm
Rating: (4 users)
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imho you wont get the opportunity again. Theres a month till earnings
and all the bad news is priced into the stock. Shorts will also cover
soon
**************************
Methinks a few people got fleeced, badly. _________________ "Battle not with monsters, lest ye become a monster, and if you gaze into the
Abyss, the Abyss gazes also into you."
Ammo at a gunfight is like bubblegum in grade school: If you havent brought enough for everyone, you're in trouble
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