Don’t worry, just a little bump - $70 is just around the corner. Short traders just keep making those margin calls, mortgage the house if you have to. Fortunes await you! PO is for pansies and doomers. At $70 short some more ..... it is going back to $22 .... the world is awash with oil ........ reality has nothing to do with it, its all in those charts!!!!!!!!!!
Joined: Jul 04, 2008 Posts: 106 Location: Europe: European Historian
Posted: Mon Jul 14, 2008 1:28 am Post subject: Re: If american economy crashes?
hope_full wrote:
I still have hope that the US can support its 300 million residents in some fashion *if* we stop burning our food in the gas tank and *if* we stop shipping it overseas. And another thing - the US population growth is speeding toward ZPG. It's the OTHER guys (and girls) in the rest of the world that are procreating like mad.
No! America will not be able to support these people. What youve seen for the past 50 years has been a byproduct of the oil age.
Just take a trip to a Wal Mart and ask yourself...will these and 300 million+ people survive an extreme depression? Then take a trip to a city..say Detroit and ask what will happen once government can no longer float the bill for these people.
Also the USA is being flooded by people South of the border..and expect as the recession -depression crash of Mexico economy happens..about 30-50 more million to flood in. I expect by 2020 the USA will have around 350 million people "50 million added from 2008-2020 mostly from Mexico, Asia, Africa and Arab nations.
hope_full- Thats a good name for you...because you do have allot of wishful thinking.
If the US economy crashes the world will follow..plain and simple...if the US stock market crashes so will the worlds.
Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 7:49 am Post subject: Re: If american economy crashes?
Life is always vastly more complex and unexpected than almost anyone imagines. The system is not static, if there is a severe crash in the stock market and a series of sympathetic bankruptcies running through the global financial system due to outstanding CDS's and other interconectedness... the following morning when the world looked at itself it would have just short of half of the oil we will ever consume left, huge factories and an infrastructure that can continue to support billions of people for decades to come.
The easy imaginitive solution is Collapse----> Mad Max. That is one credible if in my opinion low probability outcome. The most likely outcome of a severe economic crisis from the fiancial sector would be (in my opinion) a rapid return to the thirties, chaos mixed with people trying to rebuild order, New Deals and National Socialism. Make work programs and make war plans. Protectionism and populism would dominate the politics of the era.
Out of the panic the nations of the world would largely rebuild along socialist lines. Work for all, just back breaking building of new railways and farms wheather you want to or not.
Id guess in these circumstances if you can grow your own food and make enough money from selling food or services you would not need to be handed a shovel to earn your bread.
History has many suprises for yet. I just have a rather uncomfortable feeling none of them are going to be overly pleasant.
Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 8:41 am Post subject: Re: If american economy crashes?
dorlomin,
I agree with your characterzation of a possible future especially the complexity of a system that can't really be predicted. The world survived the global depression brought on the the late 70's oil spike. In fact, the oil price collapse of the mid 80's led to a great economic boom here. But we weren't knocking on PO's door in 1986 either. For me the future hinges on the race between demand destruction vs. PO production decline rate. And I don't think anyone can offer a credible expectation...just to many "what ifs".
Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 9:10 am Post subject: Re: If american economy crashes?
OilFinder2 wrote:
Munqi wrote:
What would be the impact on rest of the world and especially Europe if the american economy were to crash?
The price of oil would also crash.
That's hopeful. Depending on how the value of the USD oil may just go the other direction.
Of course, should this happen, the question is how long others are willing to accept to get oil (and other commodities) listed in USD before they switch to an alternative Monetary system (Euro?).
Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 9:20 am Post subject: Re: If american economy crashes?
dorlomin wrote:
The most likely outcome of a severe economic crisis from the fiancial sector would be (in my opinion) a rapid return to the thirties, chaos mixed with people trying to rebuild order, New Deals and National Socialism. Make work programs and make war plans. Protectionism and populism would dominate the politics of the era.
Out of the panic the nations of the world would largely rebuild along socialist lines. Work for all, just back breaking building of new railways and farms wheather you want to or not.
Id guess in these circumstances if you can grow your own food and make enough money from selling food or services you would not need to be handed a shovel to earn your bread.
History has many suprises for yet. I just have a rather uncomfortable feeling none of them are going to be overly pleasant.
I think we'll fall a bit further than the 1930s, more like to a lifestyle akin of the turn of the last century, at least for a few years, then slowling coming back to the 1930s and eventually we'll "peak" at a 1950 approximation as this was probably the height of sustainability we have achieved.
But even in that "rosy" scenario it will still mean people dying of starvation and the question is how stron the community feel is, for example, in the United States vs. a "me vs. the rest" mentaility. Even if North America can level out a 1930s level it will still cause some social unrest.
As for China. Around ten years ago they announced a ten year plan that they wanted to bring up to 1/3 of the population into the cities / middle class. That almost seems to be achieved.
If there is a world wide recession (or even depression) China will obviously suffer too, but if they have reached their goal the impact may be a lot lower. Likewise this would "echo out" to places that provide raw materials (e.g. Australia and Canada) especially if there is little or no resistance from a weakened US.
Finally, even if they haven't made it and the whole thing does go into a tailspin world wide, China still has something that the US does not:
- Lots and lots of cheap labour for whom a lot of things won't change very much.
- All the factories and machines that the US (and partly Europe) has sold off for cheap goods. So after the dust has settled they essentially only need to flip a switch. Most of the other countries need to completely re-tool.
Joined: May 20, 2008 Posts: 355 Location: I have a whole ward
Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 4:58 pm Post subject: Re: If american economy crashes?
What makes you think the US, even in the midst of a depression, will roll over and play dead?
The US military kicks ass and takes names with the gloves on.....imagine a wounded US, and the military with the gloves off!
I can promise you this. Chavez is a dead man walking. Never mess with an addict when he needs his fix. _________________ Viddy well, little brother. Viddy well.
Last edited by AlexdeLarge on Tue Jul 15, 2008 7:14 pm; edited 1 time in total
Joined: Sep 17, 2005 Posts: 143 Location: The Netherlands
Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 5:44 pm Post subject: Re: If american economy crashes?
OilFinder2 wrote:
Munqi wrote:
What would be the impact on rest of the world and especially Europe if the american economy were to crash?
The price of oil would also crash.
Anyone know what has happened with oil prices (or commodity prices in general) during economic crashes/recessions/depressions in the past? I'm guessing demand will drop, but for something as magical as crude oil it can't be that much can it? _________________ The man who moves a mountain begins by carrying away small stones.
Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 6:22 pm Post subject: Re: If american economy crashes?
AlexdeLarge wrote:
What makes you think the US, even in the midst of a depression, will roll over and play dead?
The US military kicks ass and takes names with the gloves on.....imagine a wounded US, and the military with the gloves off!
I can you promise this. Chavez is a dead man walking. Never mess with an addict when he needs his fix.
That's nice, but thanks to your Commander in Chief deciding to build Sandcastles in the middle east most of the troops are already comitted.
I doubt very much he could convince the ones that are still at home to pack up and move to Venzuela or another part of the world he thinks may be beneficial. My guess is that the majority of troops at home will stay there, mainly because they are already stretched thin.
Of course there is the option of calling a draft and thus getting more people, but it seems the problem is not only boots on the ground but equipment that goes with it. I doubt even the US can manage to mobilze and equip an army strong enough to intervene anywhere, it has tried to pacify Iraq for the last five years and that hasn't worked out yet, Afghanistan where there is more international help isn't at peace either.
The best the US could manage I guess is to bomb Venezuela back into the stone age (or the rest of the world for that matter), if Bush or whoever pulls his (or whoever the next President is) strings is anybody's guess.
EDIT: Oh, and even if you have the people and the machines, where are you planning to get the oil from to drive the tank or fly the plane? The Strategic reserve will only last so long, and if the states in the middle east see the US going on a crusade they will turn off the tap and start their own little war. Getting oil out of that region will be a futile act, there are too many geographic choke points to make this a viable solution.
Canada then? Just guessing, but there will probably be enough Canadians around that won't like an invasion force driving up to the oil patch either, and those refineries, pipelines, upgraders etc. tend to be rather volatile equipment.
So if you're hoping for a military "relief" if that should happen I think you may find yourself bitterly disappointed.
Joined: May 20, 2008 Posts: 355 Location: I have a whole ward
Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 7:09 pm Post subject: Re: If american economy crashes?
Building Sandcastles? LOL Nope, he sent the Centurians to sit on top of last, largest known reserves of oil in the world. This was done with the assitance and blessings of all the countries in the West and Japan.....and perhaps with even a nod from the Kingdom. The spice must flow.
As for Chavez, the business owners and the Venusualian upper and middle class want him gone. So with a little help from the men in black, he will just be a footnote in the history. No major military effort required. (Frankly, I'm surprised he is still alive. I guess that's proof the intelligence agencys don't have the balls they use to, Or it suits their purpose to leave him alone for the moment.)
On another note...........if things get really bad, (Unemployment High) there will be no problem bringing back the draft. When Americans have their way of life yanked out from under them, there will be no shortage of volunteers.
This is not argument to say if this is right or wrong..........it is just the way it is. _________________ Viddy well, little brother. Viddy well.
Last edited by AlexdeLarge on Tue Jul 15, 2008 7:23 pm; edited 1 time in total
Joined: Apr 12, 2007 Posts: 1162 Location: Central NC
Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 7:19 pm Post subject: Re: If american economy crashes?
Snowrunner wrote:
EDIT: Oh, and even if you have the people and the machines, where are you planning to get the oil from to drive the tank or fly the plane? The Strategic reserve will only last so long, and if the states in the middle east see the US going on a crusade they will turn off the tap and start their own little war. Getting oil out of that region will be a futile act, there are too many geographic choke points to make this a viable solution.
According to a post on some thread here the U.S. military has a 20 year supply of oil which should come as no surprise. It doesn't make sense that they would be living "paycheck to paycheck" so to speak. _________________ "The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences…"
Sir Winston Churchill
Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 7:48 pm Post subject: Re: If american economy crashes?
AlexdeLarge wrote:
Building Sandcastles? LOL Nope, he sent the Centurians to sit on top of last, largest known reserves of oil in the world. This was done with the assitance and blessings of all the countries in the West and Japan.....and perhaps with even a nod from the Kingdom. The spice must flow.
Last I checked this was a silent agreement. And sitting on top of it hasn't really done anything to get it out though.
But yes, I am pretty sure the Kingdom was all in favour for it, they were under pressure to get rid of the US troops stationed in Saudi Arabia and moving a bit north looked like a good idea at that time.
Too bad that even though they are sitting on lots of oil, it just doesn't seem to be coming out of the area.
Quote:
As for Chavez, the business owners and the Venusualian upper and middle class want him gone. So with a little help from the men in black, he will just be a footnote in the history. No major military effort required. (Frankly, I'm surprised he is still alive. I guess that's proof the intelligence agencys don't have the balls they use to, Or it suits their purpose to leave him alone for the moment.)
They tried to off Castro in the 60s a few times and failed, let's face it, it's not as easy as Hollywood makes it out to be.
But even if you get rid of Chavez, do you honestly think that whoever comes next will just invite the US in? They know full well that they have leverage and unless they have absolutely zero understanding of what that means will do their darnest to give it all away.
Quote:
On another note...........if things get really bad, (Unemployment High) there will be no problem bringing back the draft. When Americans have their way of life yanked out from under them, there will be no shortage of volunteers.
This is not argument to say if this is right or wrong..........it is just the way it is.
It wouldn't be the first time that the someone goes to war to cover up a Fark at home, but I somewhat doubt that the majority of people would go along with it, not after they are already being in a war for four years and at least have an incling (I hope) of what that means.
But yes, it IS a concern to me on how the American Empire will exit the stage, and I somehow have my doubts that it will be completely peaceful.
Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 7:50 pm Post subject: Re: If american economy crashes?
Homesteader wrote:
According to a post on some thread here the U.S. military has a 20 year supply of oil which should come as no surprise. It doesn't make sense that they would be living "paycheck to paycheck" so to speak.
I wouldn't doubt that, but it would still need to be refined and moved around where it is needed.
My guess is when they set this up the idea was to be able to defend the homeland without having to rely on foreign oil.
Question is: If it would come to that, that this is the only oil left in the country, do you think Americans will cheerfully go to war over trying to secure more oil (where? More Iraq? Canada?) or will they say: "Hold on, wasn't that what is going on since 2003 and didn't work? What would be different THIS time?" and then actually belief it?
Joined: May 20, 2008 Posts: 355 Location: I have a whole ward
Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 9:12 pm Post subject: Re: If american economy crashes?
Snowrunner wrote:
Last I checked this was a silent agreement. And sitting on top of it hasn't really done anything to get it out though.
It takes time. The war was not about the price of oil.......it was to ensure access to the oil. _________________ Viddy well, little brother. Viddy well.
Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 9:30 pm Post subject: Re: If american economy crashes?
AlexdeLarge wrote:
It takes time. The war was not about the price of oil.......it was to ensure access to the oil.
I agree about the motivation, but I don't think that it really has helped or will help.
How will they get the oil out of there? Build a pipeline to Israel? That's pretty much the only "safe bet" I could see and I doubt that Pipeline would be cheap to maintain, much less reliable.
And the question is: who is going to bankroll this? The Fed right is hard at work trying to get the Dollar made worthless, even if they have a 20 year reserve for the Military, I doubt that alone will allow the Powers That Be(TM) to fullfill the plan.
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