Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 3:14 am Post subject: Bush gives amber light for Israel to attack Iran
Quote:
.S. President George W. Bush has given Israel an "amber light" to begin preparations for a military attack on Iran, a Pentagon official told The Sunday Times this week.
"Amber means get on with your preparations, stand by for immediate attack and tell us when you're ready," the official said.
The official told the Times that Bush informed the Israeli government he would back an Israeli plan to strike Iran's main nuclear sites with long-range aerial weapons if diplomatic talks over Tehran's contentious atomic program broke down.
Bush's voice of support comes despite U.S. military officials' opposition to the risks of an aerial strike on Iran, the official told The Times. However, the U.S. would not deploy American forces for such a strike nor would Israel be able to depend on U.S. military bases in Iraq for logistical support, the official said.
The U.S. would not necessarily give the "green" light for an attack without unquestionable proof that Iran is involved in military preparations of its own, the official told The Times.
Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 7:09 am Post subject: Re: Bush gives amber light for Israel to attack Iran
Given that Israel does have have aircraft carriers to park just off Iran's coast, any Israel "surprise" air strike on Iran requires over flights of either: Turkey/Syria, Iraq or Saudi Arabian airspace.
The only country that could/would possibly grant such a request is Iraq's puppet government, but since the US military actually controls Iraq's air space, any such attack would require active US coordination at the highest levels of the military/gov't, and unequivocally show to the world that Iraq certainly is not a democracy.
Because an air attack on Iranian nuclear facilities will roil world financial markets and thus provide Obama with even more of an edge over the Republican party, Israel may be less inclined to attack Iran before the election. On the other hand, after the inauguration, Israel will be in the hands of a new American president who will show it much less sympathy than Bush. That's why someone might bet on the period between the election and the inauguration -- say December -- as the perfect time for an Israeli attack.
There is a problem, though. Violating, say, Jordanian or Turkish airspace is not really the issue. The issue is that largely because of the on-going Iraq war, the U. S. controls the airspace over the entry points to Iran: in Iraq and in the Persian Gulf. Thus, an Israeli attack on Iran could probably only happen with U. S. connivance. And even if Israel could evade American sensors, few would believe that it honestly did so. As a sort of a last hurrah, one might speculate that Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney would let Israel bomb Iran with a wink and a nod. But I do not believe that Secretary of Defense Robert Gates would do so. And because Gates has emerged as such a critical cabinet member, beloved by both the Pentagon staff and by the media, his word would be crucial.
...rarely do I agree with Robert Kaplan and his strange imperial proclivities, but in this article he is actually correct about the US having "checkmated" itself regarding Iran.
Quote:
Bottom line: precisely because the U. S. dominates the airspace around Iran, it has checkmated itself. Israel will find it very hard to pull America's chestnuts out of the fire in Iran. An Israeli attack is, in the last analysis, still unlikely. The problem of a nuclear Iran is far from being solved.
— Robert D. Kaplan
Let's hope that Gates could pervail in a showdown with Bush and the insane neocons such as Cheney et al. Regardless of this dynamic, with 50 new US military bases, and the US running the show, it really just a big US military launch pad, kind of like the 51 state - nevermind those natives and their puppet gov't.
Speaking of which, I would expect even the placid gov't in Baghdad to protest quite loudly...but of course the bigger immediate issue is that I would expect a full-blown Shi'ite uprising inside Iraq if any unprovoked attack on Iran were to occur - possibly cutting off US supply lines from Kuwait - thus potentially resulting in a replay of the 1975 rooftop helicopter lifts in Vietnam...
Yes, things would get very unpredictable if Israel attacks Iran over a non-existant nuclear weapon's program (according to the CIA in 2006, and the NIE in 2007). Venezuelean oil to the US would stop flowing, so we'd have a serious energy crisis here within a few weeks...nevermind the potentially devestating economic blowback from China et al regarding the US dollar and associated debt-financing of the US economy...
Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 8:47 am Post subject: Re: Bush gives amber light for Israel to attack Iran
Then again, Israel could just go with ballistic missiles, thereby avoiding officially using anyone’s airspace.
If an "attacked Iran" is anywhere nearly as dangerous to the world economy as everyone (including themselves) says they are, and if Israel sees them as an existential threat without an attack (which they say they do) then why does everyone assume that Israel will go with conventional weapons. What’s the point of having nukes if you can’t use them when you feel you need them (right or wrong on the perception is another discussion all together….)
Say Israel fires off some nukes, then sit right back down without so much as saying a word and declares that they’re done for now. Yes, I’m sure they’d get sanctioned, and I’m sure there would be charges brought against their leaders, but that’s the magic of a democracy… just appoint new leaders… I seriously doubt it would escalate since I don’t see either China or Russia as willing to trade their capitals for Iran… so, turmoil, economic pain (boycotts, sanctions, etc.), political slap in the face (temporary disengagement by other governments), but no more threat from Iran…
Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 10:01 am Post subject: Re: Bush gives amber light for Israel to attack Iran
Viper wrote:
so, turmoil, economic pain (boycotts, sanctions, etc.), political slap in the face (temporary disengagement by other governments), but no more threat from Iran…
That's an extremely hopeful and simplistic out come.
A nuclear missile strike on Iran would be the beginning of the world's largest Jihad, not to mention all out war between Iran and Israel.
Although considered bit players on the world stage, there's some major players in the area that have to be considered.
What would Syria, Jordan, and Lebanon do?
What would Iraq's Sunni's, Kurds, and Shiites do?
What would Saudi Arabia do?
What would Pakistan?
That whole place was a powder keg before the US invasion. Now its an armed grenade with the US holding the release. Anything that happens now nukes or not, will blow the place apart.
Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 10:47 am Post subject: Re: Bush gives amber light for Israel to attack Iran
Aren't they talking about ballistic missiles here though? I was under the impression that the only way they thought they could be sure of getting Iran's underground bunkers was by using nuclear bunker-busters.
Quote:
The official told the Times that Bush informed the Israeli government he would back an Israeli plan to strike Iran's main nuclear sites with long-range aerial weapons if diplomatic talks over Tehran's contentious atomic program broke down.
Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 11:06 am Post subject: Re: Bush gives amber light for Israel to attack Iran
So I guess what we should be looking for in terms of red flags is Gates "resigning".
I find Kaplan odd too. His articles predating the run up to war in Iraq were pretty good, but then he seemed to do a full Chris Hitchens thing. Someone other than publishing companies might be cutting these guys checks.
Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 11:44 am Post subject: Re: Bush gives amber light for Israel to attack Iran
Viper wrote:
Say Israel fires off some nukes, then sit right back down without so much as saying a word and declares that they’re done for now. Yes, I’m sure they’d get sanctioned, and I’m sure there would be charges brought against their leaders, but that’s the magic of a democracy… just appoint new leaders…
That would carry huge risk of Israel being wiped out in resulting atomic war.
Joined: Aug 03, 2007 Posts: 3646 Location: Boston Suburbs
Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 11:50 am Post subject: Re: Bush gives amber light for Israel to attack Iran
Israel is highly unlikely to use nukes first. They have more of a conscience than people give them credit for. _________________ Peak oil is sort of like a mental Everlasting Gobstopper, except it tastes like ass and you can't get it out of your mouth.
Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 11:56 am Post subject: Re: Bush gives amber light for Israel to attack Iran
FoxV wrote:
A nuclear missile strike on Iran would be the beginning of the world's largest Jihad, not to mention all out war between Iran and Israel.
Going into purely theoretical territory here, but IF Israel were to decide to use nukes, it wouldn’t be one missile. I would imagine it would be more like 50. And if Israel immediately stopped all other operations I would imagine that the immediate reaction from the other players in the neighborhood would be “WTF!!!!!!!!” followed very soon thereafter with “I knew they were crazy but I didn’t ever think they were THAT crazy!!!”
There would be no “all out” war between Iran and Israel because 1/3 of Iran’s population would be charcoal, and another 1/3 would be too busy helping the 1/3 who were suffering from radiation sickness. Basically for the foreseeable future, Iran as a national entity, able to do anything whatsoever, would be gone. It would probably be something on the order of 20-30 years before they could focus on anything other than medicine and food.
As for the other countries in the neighborhood, mostly they would be screaming murder at the UN for somebody please to do something to disarm those crazy MFs with the nukes. Not that any credible nuclear power has ever been disarmed, but they would ask for it nonetheless.
@EnergyUnlimited:
What nuclear power would want to engage Israel in an exchange for Iran's sake?
Joined: Apr 17, 2005 Posts: 2719 Location: Vancouver Island
Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 12:03 pm Post subject: Re: Bush gives amber light for Israel to attack Iran
I doubt there would be a nuclear response aimed at Israel but palestine would explode, syria and egypt would be coming over the border within hours and israel would have one hell of a fight on it's hands.
As well most of the doomers around here will tell you the end result of peak is all out war in a game of last man standing. Israel lets fly with the nukes and the game may officially be started. _________________ shame on us, doomed from the start
god have mercy on our dirty little hearts
Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 2:03 pm Post subject: Re: Bush gives amber light for Israel to attack Iran
Viper wrote:
Going into purely theoretical territory here, but IF Israel were to decide to use nukes, it wouldn’t be one missile. I would imagine it would be more like 50.
Now you're really upping the stakes. The effects of turning Iran into glass would be disastrous around the world.
World outrage would polarize, and galvanize, an already polarized Muslim/non-Muslim world.
Europe and Asia would lose a major oil and Nat gas supplier at a time when heating fuel, fertilizer, and food production is become a global issue.
Possible minor nuclear winter affecting crop yields (as well as heating demand for Europe?)
nuclear fall out affecting crop yields?
Prevailing winds put Israel and the rest of the middle east down wind of nuclear fall out.
An attack on Iran is pretty dumb. A full nuclear strike is insane and is in the realm of TEOTWAWKI Mad Max style. So other than being good material for Doomer Masturbation, I can't see much point in even discussing it
Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 2:16 pm Post subject: Re: Bush gives amber light for Israel to attack Iran
You have to wonder why Israel is so frightened of the thought of a nuclear Iran. Perhaps because it knows Iran just may be serious when it says it wants to wipe Israel and "The West" off the map....
Something to consider. People like to assume Israel would be crazy for using nukes but take into consideration they would be doing it to stop a country gone mad. _________________ "Battle not with monsters, lest ye become a monster, and if you gaze into the
Abyss, the Abyss gazes also into you."
Ammo at a gunfight is like bubblegum in grade school: If you havent brought enough for everyone, you're in trouble
Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 3:45 pm Post subject: Re: Bush gives amber light for Israel to attack Iran
50 air burst (as opposed to ground burst) nukes would kill a lot of people but would NOT "glass" Iran... the fall out and "cooling" effects would be negligible since those are mainly the effect of the dirt kicked up by a ground burst weapon.
That's not to say that the areas hit would not be radioactive, but the knock on effects would be minimal. Also means that their oil infrastructure could be up and running again in no time. Which is good since they would need the exports to deal with a destroyed economy.
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