Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 11:54 am Post subject: Re: Oil Prices Dropping
I like days like today. When the clueless see the price droping it allows them to hang on to their disbeliefs that much harder. It washes the rug out from under Simmons in their eyes. To them its all cycles. They just have to make it through this one then it's happy days are here again time.
These are more of doomsdays than when prices are skyrocketing.
It gives false hope. _________________ There will come a day when we would have wished to do a little evil for a greater good.
The Iran issue adds at least $10,if not $20 to a barrel of oil. Geopolitical factors is a big part of the price.
Whether we import 12 or 15 million bbls a day.
If we burn less ,India and China will burn it up, no problem.
So much of what is happening is the fact thst America doesnt wag the dog anymore. What is happening to America now... isnt that much different than the financial collapse of the former USSR did in 80's. The modern American economy is so huge and deverse, it just taking longer.
The US Dollar also hit a record low against the Euro today.
Whatever American money in stock/commodity markets do to the price of Oil in terms of manipulation is less significant now yjan anytime in history.5% to the price of a barrel tops.
The Bejing torch gets blown out 08/24. Look for some Iranian dust to get kicked up shortly there after.
Not saying that this is the top by any means, but markets surge and then correct. This one is way over due for a correction back to the 200 day moving average.
SPG - with the exception of medical issues, I agree with almost all of your posts.
I disagree with this one.
I'm not saying it's impossible for a turn down, but I am saying that the paradigm you are applying to arrive at your conclusion does not apply to oil.
200 day moving averages don't, to me, mean anything for a commodity that is about to fall off a production cliff and for which no alternatives exist.
People - we get to live through the most critical, non-religious, event in human history, and it's a one-time only thing! Glorious. Especially if you're the 1 in 10,000 who can see the event for what it is while it is happening. _________________ Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
I'm not saying it's impossible for a turn down, but I am saying that the paradigm you are applying to arrive at your conclusion does not apply to oil.
200 day moving averages don't, to me, mean anything for a commodity that is about to fall off a production cliff and for which no alternatives exist.
Fair enough, and you may be right. The problem though, is why does a commodity that is in the situation you described have an $8 dollar drop in one day? As far as I can see, the laws of supply and demand haven't been repealed yet. _________________ "I was born in a deep forest
I wish I could live here all my life
I am made from stones and roots
My home, these woods and roads
All my life I loved this sound
Of the woods all around
Eagles fly where the winds blow free" -Korpiklaani
The problem though, is why does a commodity that is in the situation you described have an $8 dollar drop in one day? As far as I can see, the laws of supply and demand haven't been repealed yet.
Instability. The more pressure that is put on a system, the more unpredictable it becomes at a breaking point. And the higher this one gets, the more there will be people holding large contracts that they can sell and make (or lose) very large dollar profits (losses); the more jitter is observed, the more people will try to guess $20 high, $20 low. _________________ Yes, we are. As we are.
And so shall we remain; Until the end.
why does a commodity that is in the situation you described have an $8 dollar drop in one day?
Not to quibble here my dear SPG, but it wasn't exactly an $8.00 drop. It was a $6.44
drop from open to close.
At one point it was briefly down around nine bucks, most of that in one freaky few minute dive. _________________ Everything is Impermanent. Shakyamuni Buddha
Okay, so it was a $10.81 drop from a session high of $146.73 to the session low of $135.92, but let's not forget that $135.04 was an *all-time record high* less than two months ago.
The early peakoilers have long ago warned us that as we get near the peak, prices will become more and more volatile. We are already getting used to seeing $10 swings in both directions, and Phil Flynn of Alaron Trading had commented on that recently as well.
Now, I suspect that the next step is to get $15 swings, and then $20 swings, in both directions, and things will start to get more and more "interesting". _________________ Live quotes - crude oil, gold and currencies
http://www.post1.net/lowem/page/livequotes
Not to quibble here my dear SPG, but it wasn't exactly an $8.00 drop. It was a $6.44
OK. Fine. I didn't have the chart in front of me. The point is, that prices move up because bulls have money to bid them up. Prices move down because bears have money to bid them down. The bullish movement of oil, of late, has been pretty anemic. The bearish movement, more robust. When the price struggles to get back up and barely makes a new high before plummeting on heavy volume, it signals that the bears are starting to gain strength and may take control. The uptrend is still intact for the moment, but it's showing signs of weakness and that a short term reversal may be in the offing. I think it's also particularly telling that natural gas and coal already began similar corrections two weeks ago.
Anyway, it'll be interesting to see where this goes over the next week. _________________ "I was born in a deep forest
I wish I could live here all my life
I am made from stones and roots
My home, these woods and roads
All my life I loved this sound
Of the woods all around
Eagles fly where the winds blow free" -Korpiklaani
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 9:42 am Post subject: Re: Oil Prices Dropping
Down another $4.50 today. _________________ "I was born in a deep forest
I wish I could live here all my life
I am made from stones and roots
My home, these woods and roads
All my life I loved this sound
Of the woods all around
Eagles fly where the winds blow free" -Korpiklaani
Joined: Dec 18, 2004 Posts: 4134 Location: One Mile From the Columbia River
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 9:47 am Post subject: Re: Oil Prices Dropping
smallpoxgirl wrote:
eastbay wrote:
Not to quibble here my dear SPG, but it wasn't exactly an $8.00 drop. It was a $6.44
OK. Fine. I didn't have the chart in front of me. The point is, that prices move up because bulls have money to bid them up. Prices move down because bears have money to bid them down. The bullish movement of oil, of late, has been pretty anemic. The bearish movement, more robust. When the price struggles to get back up and barely makes a new high before plummeting on heavy volume, it signals that the bears are starting to gain strength and may take control. The uptrend is still intact for the moment, but it's showing signs of weakness and that a short term reversal may be in the offing. I think it's also particularly telling that natural gas and coal already began similar corrections two weeks ago.
Anyway, it'll be interesting to see where this goes over the next week.
It could end up similar to what occurred last January when energy markets corrected 20%+ then sprang back 40%+ from those lows until the recent correction. Up, down, up down... isn't watching the energy market fun! Especially if you in it! _________________ Everything is Impermanent. Shakyamuni Buddha
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 9:56 am Post subject: Re: Oil Prices Dropping
Oil down almost 10% (~7-8%) in the last two days.
So, are the Priuses and Yarises finally making a dent, or are we entering a full-blown recession? _________________ "It's called the American Dream because you'd have to be asleep to believe it."
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 10:08 am Post subject: Re: Oil Prices Dropping
emersonbiggins wrote:
Oil down almost 10% (~7-8%) in the last two days.
So, are the Priuses and Yarises finally making a dent, or are we entering a full-blown recession?
Well the news reports it being the surprizing jump in supplies. I think a lot of us lay non doomer traders felts at a certain price point there would be demand destruction that would lower the price.
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 10:09 am Post subject: Re: Oil Prices Dropping
NOBODY knows.It could have peaked pricewise and may trade between $110 and $145 for a while? Im betting theyre will be a spike after the Bejing Olympics.
Were on a production downslope 2-4 years out before the cliff goes vertical.
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