Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 4:39 pm Post subject: Re: "Oil drops by most in 17 years"
syrac818 wrote:
What?? LOL... You guys, oil did drop by the most in 17 years. And yeah, that's going to be the headline. I know mainstream media hasn't given peak oil the attention it deserves, I know we don't get enough honest voices about conservation, and I know the endless predictions from analysts about it simply being a "bubble" are beyond tiresome. But I hardly see the fact that oil's largest drop in 17 years made the headline as "the MSM is desperately trying to quell fears and push the market along on a string". Sometimes man, this place. Just gets a little too into it's own world.
Ya know, I've watched all this for a few years now, and one thing has remained constant. Price going up produces a lot less stories than price going down. I cannot even count the number of times prices rose by a couple dollars, then fell by a buck, and the only story you'd see was "Oil prices tumble!".
When in just over 6 months we've seen prices go from around $90 a barrel to just under $150, I'm sorry, but the bouncing fluctuations caused by the speculators isn't the story. The fact that seemingly no matter what is happening, the price continues to push up, is the story.
Joined: Jun 13, 2007 Posts: 3588 Location: Minniesotuh
Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 5:00 pm Post subject: Re: "Oil drops by most in 17 years"
And, 17 years ago a barrel of oil was how much?
Just remember: with the price of oil is two steps forward, one step back.
With the Dow, it is two steps backward, and one step forward. _________________ "RRrrruuuunnnn!!!" ~Apocalypto
Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 5:09 pm Post subject: Re: "Oil drops by most in 17 years"
The headline should be about the high level of volatility in oil prices, but this does not sound very comforting. High volatility is exactly what we expect to be happening at this point.
Joined: Jun 13, 2007 Posts: 3588 Location: Minniesotuh
Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 5:12 pm Post subject: Re: "Oil drops by most in 17 years"
What gets me is that Bush has lifted the ban on drilling, and wants Congress to go along with that choice.
Does no-one in MSM seen this as an indication that things are getting Really bad? _________________ "RRrrruuuunnnn!!!" ~Apocalypto
Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 6:14 pm Post subject: Re: "Oil drops by most in 17 years"
alokin wrote:
the story tells more about the state of the US economy than of oil. look at bloomberg: bloomberg
That is exactly what was running thru my mind this afternoon while working, the volatile swings up and down in price of just about anything you can name is very unnerving. Truly today's actions are a snapshot of the times we are facing. G-men from the top down trying to offer us kool-aid, stock market (our money) wildly trying to find its value, oil trying to find its value, and everybody walking around wondering WTF is going on!
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5891 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 6:23 pm Post subject: Re: "Oil drops by most in 17 years"
US oil inventories are going to continue their decline the next few weeks to low levels. One bad Gulf of Mexico tropical storm and there won't be enough oil to go around the US.
It's hard for me to imagine this is the beginning of any major price drop. _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 7:49 pm Post subject: Re: "Oil drops by most in 17 years"
Hester wrote:
Sometimes man, this place. Just gets a little too into it's own world.
From the opening bell the NYSE dropped 136 points in an hour. That drop took the Big Board through the critical technical resistance point of 10,983. The next stop down is 7,400 and every program trader in the world was ringing the bell.
Then miraculously crude fell 9.50 in 10 minutes. Someone REAL big dumped one hell of a pile of futures, at one horrendous loss, to stop that fall. If anyone believes that all of that was co-incidence, go long Lunar Blue Cheese. The Rat from Alpha Centuri just landed there and supply is going to be short demand.
Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 7:51 pm Post subject: Re: "Oil drops by most in 17 years"
DantesPeak wrote:
US oil inventories are going to continue their decline the next few weeks to low levels. One bad Gulf of Mexico tropical storm and there won't be enough oil to go around the US. It's hard for me to imagine this is the beginning of any major price drop.
Hey DP, I am wondering how close they are getting to MOL. Didn't we calculate that the MOL is around 285 million barrels? Seems like inventories are continuing to drop:
Quote:
Supplies of crude declined 2.2 million barrels in the week ended July 11 from 293.9 million
Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 7:54 pm Post subject: Re: "Oil drops by most in 17 years"
shortonoil wrote:
Jester wrote:
Sometimes man, this place. Just gets a little too into it's own world.
From the opening bell the NYSE dropped 136 points in an hour. That drop took the Big Board through the critical technical resistance point of 10,983. The next stop down is 7,400 and every program trader in the world was ringing the bell. Then miraculously crude fell 9.50 in 10 minutes. Someone REAL big dumped one hell of a pile of futures, at one horrendous loss, to stop that fall. If anyone believes that all of that was co-incidence, go long Lunar Blue Cheese. The Rat from Alpha Centuri just landed there and supply is going to be short demand.
I agree, shortonoil. I think the PPT is trying to temporarily lower oil prices to shore up the collapsing stock market. They won't be able to continue doing this.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5891 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 8:09 pm Post subject: Re: "Oil drops by most in 17 years"
Hogan wrote:
DantesPeak wrote:
US oil inventories are going to continue their decline the next few weeks to low levels. One bad Gulf of Mexico tropical storm and there won't be enough oil to go around the US. It's hard for me to imagine this is the beginning of any major price drop.
Hey DP, I am wondering how close they are getting to MOL. Didn't we calculate that the MOL is around 285 million barrels? Seems like inventories are continuing to drop:
Quote:
Supplies of crude declined 2.2 million barrels in the week ended July 11 from 293.9 million
The official MOL is 270 million, but that is from a dated report. The figure may be closer to 285 million, and as shortonoil previously noted, would seasonally fluctate.
My WAG is falling below 285 million would result at least in some kind of supply disruption somewhere in the US. _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 8:35 pm Post subject: Re: "Oil drops by most in 17 years"
shortonoil, who do you think is able and willing to sell so much futures to stop the stock market to break down? And stupidly asked, do you think if oil is cheaper the market would be stabilized (and why can buyers believe in such a sudden drop?).
I read on bloomberg that oil is steady now.
This all is very much like in the theory that if the plateau hits prices get more volatile. And even that I only watch this for about 10 month now prices got much more volatile recently.
Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 8:35 pm Post subject: Re: "Oil drops by most in 17 years"
DantesPeak wrote:
]The official MOL is 270 million, but that is from a dated report. The figure may be closer to 285 million, and as shortonoil previously noted, would seasonally fluctate. My WAG is falling below 285 million would result at least in some kind of supply disruption somewhere in the US.
Unfortunately, we don’t have as good a handle on the MOL for crude stocks as we did for gasoline last year. 193 brought shortages in the Midwest. But it has to be above the 270 figure because demand is so much higher than what is was when that report was prepared.
It could be as high as 290, if so, we will known in a couple of weeks as refineries utilization falls. Not because of equipment problems, but because they have run out of crude. When we see utilization at 85% we will know we have hit the wall.
Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 8:56 pm Post subject: Re: "Oil drops by most in 17 years"
alokin wrote:
shortonoil, who do you think is able and willing to sell so much futures to stop the stock market to break down? And stupidly asked, do you think if oil is cheaper the market would be stabilized (and why can buyers believe in such a sudden drop?). I read on bloomberg that oil is steady now.
The first question is easy. GS
If oil is artificially kept lower it would stabilize the markets for maybe a month. As the available energy to the economy declines the economy will decline. No power on earth could keep it boosted for much longer than that. All the cash available from the SWF and China would only compensate for the loss in US housing for only about two years. With the insolvency of the banking system thrown in, less than a year.
Oil was steady this afternoon, at 136+. When the crude inventory report comes out tomorrow, thing could very well change, very rapidly.
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