How then, do we move backwards? How does a society, with most of the people having no clue of future events, move from being dependent on a vast and intertwined network of goods and services produced by the indigenous people of whereever, to a local resource and renewable energy based society, and do so in the timeframe available (20-30 years using the most liberal extimates, 10-20 with resonable estimates, 5-10 with worst case scenarios), all the while prices on everything increasing, world politics getting more militaristic, governments continuously reducing civil liberties, shortages of goods on the market and weather patterns resembling bad Hollywood movies?
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5328 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 8:01 pm Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
Eli wrote:
Are you guys talking about them nationalizing the oil company's too?
This is just my WAG, but I don't think oil will be nationalized anytime soon (within two years).
The problem being if the oil futures market becomes restricted the only the way to own oil would be to buy oil company stocks. But I expect 'windfall' profits tax to start somewhere around $200.
A windfall profits tax on oil inventories was almost put in place 1 1/2 years ago, but was narrowing defeated in Congress at the last minute. Still even now the method used to value oil inventories discourages accumulation of standing oil inventories, which has and will become a problem when there are supply disruptions. _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Joined: Dec 07, 2005 Posts: 1626 Location: Australia
Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 8:19 pm Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
TEDBIT of Gold/Silver info.
TOCOM - the Japanese commodity market is the only one with transparency to who has what kind of positions.
(That is about to change next year when to implement a new platform.)
Goldman Sachs started shorting gold on TOCOM some 30 months ago and quickly became the largest short position.
For the last several months they have been covering their short positions and with Monday's cover of 1,475 contracts left them with a net short position of only 5,756 contracts.
That suggests that GS doesn't believe in POG deteriorating significantly from here
STDJ (Standard Bank?) became the largest short hand after GS started covering. But also they cut their net short position on Monday by a hefty 5,579 contracts to leave them net short 33,158 contracts.
What is very interesting is that there has been no covering of significance of Silver.
So are they thinking that Silver price will drop even though Gold goes up? Or are they terrified of the price action that will take place if they do start covering?
Personally I am getting more and more convinced that Silver is making them sh*t their pants and that Silver eventually will make a much stronger move than gold.
By the way, did I post Hommels chart on Silver consumption?
Unless Hommel got his figures all wrong, physical silver stocks are shrinking and this has been going on for some years...
_________________ Lets take a ride, and run with the dogs tonight
In suburbia
You cant hide, run with the dogs tonight
In suburbia
- Pet Shop Boys
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 3:07 am Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
mattduke wrote:
UncoveringTruths wrote:
Quote:
July 15 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission will take emergency action today to limit the ability of traders to bet on a decline in the shares of Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae and brokerages, the agency's chairman said.
Christopher Cox told the Senate Banking Committee that the SEC will issue an order today imposing a ``preborrower requirement'' on short sales in the mortgage-financing companies and Wall Street firms. The requirement would prohibit the practice known as naked short selling, in which traders avoid the financial burden of borrowing shares when betting they'll fall.
``In addition to this emergency order, we will undertake a rulemaking to address the same issues across the entire market,'' Cox said in his remarks to the committee.
This seems to bar naked short selling only. Naked short selling is similar to banking: brokers loans shares they don't have. As such, it is a blatant violation of property rights and should be outlawed as fraud. It does seem however that they are creating a mechanism to disallow it selectively, and not across the board. That is a powerful manipulation mechanism and it should not be done this way. Naked short selling is so bad in certain sectors that there can be more counterfeit shares outstanding than there are legitimate shares.
Exactly. So when does the rest of the market get the protection from naked shorting that F&F apparently deserve? _________________ "Who knows what the Second Law of Thermodynamics will be like in a hundred years?" - Economist speaking during planning for World Population Conference in early 1970s
Joined: Dec 07, 2005 Posts: 1626 Location: Australia
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 4:25 am Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
From the Bloomber article; (My emphasis)
Quote:
July 15 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission will limit the ability of traders to bet on a drop in shares of brokerage firms, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae as part of a crackdown on stock manipulation, the agency's chairman said.
Christopher Cox told the Senate Banking Committee the agency will require traders to hold shares of the two mortgage buyers and the brokerages before they execute a short sale. The order, to be in effect for as long as 30 days, will bar the practice called naked short selling, in which traders avoid the financial cost of borrowing shares when betting they'll fall.
Isn't this just an admission that nothing is done about naked shorting unless TPTB so demand.
No wonder so many junior miners are suffering. SEC for one doesn't care at all. _________________ Lets take a ride, and run with the dogs tonight
In suburbia
You cant hide, run with the dogs tonight
In suburbia
- Pet Shop Boys
Joined: Dec 07, 2005 Posts: 1626 Location: Australia
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 4:59 am Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
Jim Sinclair has been warning for some time now that the system is broken and that people need to 1) hold physical metal and 2) take share certificates (cut intermediaries)
He now went a step further with this; (My emphasis)
Quote:
The financial system is broken and all that can be done by the US Federal Reserve and the US Treasury is monetize all major financial entities.
The reason that all this has happened is the $1.114 QUADRILLION dollar mountain of crap paper made of unfunded, unlisted, unregulated and non-transparent financial specific performance contracts called OTC derivatives.
Those that create and peddle OTC derivatives are guilty of financial murder one.
I cannot imagine you reading the information above and failing to protect yourself, but knowing mankind, I doubt many did.
You should hold no dollars except what is required to pay bills for six months. You know now that FDIC is grossly under-financed compared to potential claims. Get all your money out of financial entities now before you have to stand in line to get it. Screw interest rates. Keep six months of cash in your safety deposit box, invest the balance in short term treasuries of other currencies.
You should put a minimum 1/3 of your LIQUID net worth in gold and gold equivalents.
You surely know by now that SIPC is grossly under-financed when it comes to covering potential claims. The secondary insurance held by brokers is written to them for you, but not for you.
There are three ways you can protect your securities:
Have your shares delivered to you as paper shares registered in your name. Have your shares put in direct registration as a book entry at the transfer agent of the company you are invested in.
After consulting a tax counsel and receiving their blessing, order your retirement 401K, Roth and other like investments transferred into the name of your Trust Company, for the benefit of you.
Failing to do this because your broker disagrees or makes a fuss is you becoming complacent.
The basic thesis is please distance yourself and your assets from financial agents.
I got this via mail, but you can also find it on his website jsmineset _________________ Lets take a ride, and run with the dogs tonight
In suburbia
You cant hide, run with the dogs tonight
In suburbia
- Pet Shop Boys
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 8:47 am Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
DantesPeak said:
Quote:
Congress appears to be moving slowly towards bailing out F & F. I don't think they want to bail out the shareholders.
Even though the sub-prime market appears to be bottoming to some extent (there is a growing shortage of people to default) the Alt-A and prime markets, which are ten times larger, are just beginning to pick up a full head of steam.
This mess is not ending, it is just beginning. Congress can’t bail out F&F even if it wanted to, and it seems likely that they know that. This is all political rhetoric, and like all political rhetoric it will come to nothing. The share holders and the bond holders of F&F are toast. The game right now is to make sure that no one really knows this, yet.
This is idle dialogue to appease the SWF and foreign central banks that are on the line for much of F&F’s debt. Congress will dittle and daddle until this thing explodes into a trillion $ financial mushroom cloud. Then they will claim that they did everything possible to prevent it.
Joined: Dec 06, 2005 Posts: 823 Location: Stopped at the border.
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 10:35 am Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
shortonoil wrote:
DantesPeak said:
Quote:
Congress appears to be moving slowly towards bailing out F & F. I don't think they want to bail out the shareholders.
Even though the sub-prime market appears to be bottoming to some extent (there is a growing shortage of people to default) the Alt-A and prime markets, which are ten times larger, are just beginning to pick up a full head of steam.
This mess is not ending, it is just beginning. Congress can’t bail out F&F even if it wanted to, and it seems likely that they know that. This is all political rhetoric, and like all political rhetoric it will come to nothing. The share holders and the bond holders of F&F are toast. The game right now is to make sure that no one really knows this, yet.
This is idle dialogue to appease the SWF and foreign central banks that are on the line for much of F&F’s debt. Congress will dittle and daddle until this thing explodes into a trillion $ financial mushroom cloud. Then they will claim that they did everything possible to prevent it.
Politics as usual, is the name of the game!
Sure they can bail F&F out. All they need to do is get the money necessary from the ME and Asia by means of selling them special bonds or real estate owning packages, take your pick or make a suggestion. They can package the risk in recognizable sections and make promises of limited sovereignty as to having rights in local voting. The collateral will be all of the sub-prime property that the Fed, by means of bailout transfer of title, now has in addition to what needs to go on the block directly in order to fund the scheme.
The potential to deflate the supply of dollars that are expatriated and to effect change in the long term value of the dollar against especially the euro makes it tempting. There would be even more financial sector pain, but hey, it is already so bad that a little more couldn't hurt. That pain might go a long way toward keeping the impulse to over-consume that prevails even yet in the US at bay. _________________ "Hope encourages men to take risks; men in a strong position may follow her without ruin, if not without loss. But when they stake all that they have to the last coin (for she is a spendthrift), she reveals her real self in the hour of failure."
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 11:59 am Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
RonMN wrote:
Miki Wrote: Silver eventually will make a much stronger move than gold.
IMHO I totally agree with you Micki...I am pretty heavy silver myself.
Silver is better than paper, no doubt, but it's value lies partly in it's industrial utility. In a global recession, wouldn't this actually weigh against it? Just asking---I really don't know much about silver, am biased against it, since my parents lost a good 50% of their savings buying gold a few decades ago. Their reasons for buying it were "sterling", and they appeared to do everything right, but didn't know the Hunt bros had cornered the market and were pumping the price.
Joined: Mar 18, 2005 Posts: 2563 Location: Minnesota
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 12:47 pm Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
threadbear Wrote: In a global recession, wouldn't this actually weigh against it?
Yes, I would guess it would, That's why I wouldn't put more than 10% of my net worth into any one thing...However, since Ben started trading US treasuries for mortgage debt a few months ago, there is really no place safe...gotta do the best ya can with the knowledge you have
Getting out of debt is still the #1 defense IMO.
<edit> Don't forget that some of silvers "industrial applications" are necessities (like water purification & on hospital bandages due to its anti-microbial properties...and nothing we know of conducts electricity better). _________________ Quis custodiet ipsos custodes.
Last edited by RonMN on Wed Jul 16, 2008 2:01 pm; edited 1 time in total
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 1:51 pm Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
Iaato wrote:
The beginning of the end for America's AAA rating?
You will probably agree that we will not see a formal downgrade any time soon, the ratings agencies are businesses and a guest does not foul his host's carpet. We have seen that much already. But in the fullness of time it can trade as AA, if that is the value the market places on it.
threadbear wrote:
Silver is better than paper, no doubt, but it's value lies partly in it's industrial utility. In a global recession, wouldn't this actually weigh against it?
Half its use is industrial. Its continued strength, especially with the advent of digital photography and rapidly increasing production, owes as much to the infrastructure boom as anything else. It might rise on the back of a financial panic, but I doubt that will hold if the world then slides into a depression that halts the further industrialisation of India and China and slows that of the ME Gulf states and Russia. And I doubt demand for ornaments and silverware will continue to rise when stainless steel is all people can afford. It is reasonable to assume that some of that growth was discretionary/aspirational and fuelled by the credit bubble. Short-term, you might decide to take the risk. Long-term, the stuff we talk about here would suggest that position will be diving deeper underwater year after year. Widely held assumptions can change quickly here. _________________ "The American people are watching the numbers climb higher and higher at the pump and they're waiting to see what the Congress will do." - George W Bush
Joined: Mar 18, 2005 Posts: 2563 Location: Minnesota
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 2:39 pm Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
Quote:
Treasury Department has only days to act before foreign patience runs out,
<snip>
Some financial experts warned that Treasury has only 2-3 days to put real money behind its promises to back up Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac "or face a dangerous crisis that could spiral out of control," the paper reported.
Joined: Apr 27, 2007 Posts: 4236 Location: The Great Sonoran Desert
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 3:04 pm Post subject: Re: Housing & Economic Collapse - In Progress - #2
threadbear wrote:
RonMN wrote:
Miki Wrote: Silver eventually will make a much stronger move than gold.
IMHO I totally agree with you Micki...I am pretty heavy silver myself.
Silver is better than paper, no doubt, but it's value lies partly in it's industrial utility. In a global recession, wouldn't this actually weigh against it? Just asking---I really don't know much about silver, am biased against it, since my parents lost a good 50% of their savings buying gold a few decades ago. Their reasons for buying it were "sterling", and they appeared to do everything right, but didn't know the Hunt bros had cornered the market and were pumping the price.
S:G Ratio has historically been around 1:15
Currently it is around 1:50
Silver should be $65/oz today. _________________ "There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
"... hope is a rotten-thighed whore" Niko Kazantzakis
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