Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 6:53 pm Post subject: Re: There's plenty of oil left
Well done.
Now that we're saved, anybody want a beer?
Let's get a Bud. It's owned by the Belgians. _________________ Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 7:25 pm Post subject: Re: There's plenty of oil left
hmmmm.... did anyone tell you that our current lifestyle is based on easy recoverable oil?
And that easy recoverable oil is almost gone?
Why do you think big oil started to process the tar sands in Alberta?
If it is economically convenient is because the light sweet crude is almost gone !
Joined: Oct 11, 2005 Posts: 409 Location: Arizona, USA
Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 8:26 pm Post subject: Re: There's plenty of oil left
I heard that nuclear fusion is right around the corner, along with personal jetpacks and flying cars. And just think, Star Trek technology is not that far away! The replicator! "Honey, make me a damned ham!"
Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 9:26 pm Post subject: Re: There's plenty of oil left
Vogelzang wrote:
I read a couple years ago that recovery of Canadian tar sands are profitable as long as oil stays above $30 a barrel.
The tar sands require large amounts of water fresh water and natural gas to cook the sand. There is a shortage of water and likely to be a shortage of gas in Alberta to ramp production up beyond the planned projects. In fact they may not have enough water for all the planned production.
Additionally tar sands have a very poor energy return due to the high amount of energy used to mine the sand, transport, cook, etc. It is in the range of 5:1 (5 barrels of oil produced for every barrel (equivalent) used) though this figure may be lower - this is far lower than Texas where some wells got as high as 30:1. It is unlikely that the daily production volume will ever match the needs of the US market and the costs are significantly higher than conventional oil plus it is not a direct substitute chemically for conventional oil.
Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 10:07 pm Post subject: Re: There's plenty of oil left
You know, I've been coming here for a while now, trying to stay up on things. And I've been reading everyone's comments to see what they have to say. I think a lot of people who comment here are genuinely concerned about the future of energy. They're comments are genuine and their fears understandable. But I'm disturbed by the number of comments I've been reading by people who knock every bit of good news that comes along. Honestly, it almost sounds as if some of those here actually want things to get worse, are looking for bad news, and will denounce every bit of good news that gets posted as ridiculous. What do you want? If the point is to find solutions, good and well. Isn't that what it's all about? But if the point is to suggest that there's nothing we can do, everything is going to hell in a handbasket and we might as well just blow our heads off, I mean, what's the point of that? If anyone here actually wants things to get worse, whoa, scary!
Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 10:33 pm Post subject: Re: There's plenty of oil left
Concerned1 wrote:
You know, I've been coming here for a while now, trying to stay up on things. And I've been reading everyone's comments to see what they have to say. I think a lot of people who comment here are genuinely concerned about the future of energy. They're comments are genuine and their fears understandable. But I'm disturbed by the number of comments I've been reading by people who knock every bit of good news that comes along. Honestly, it almost sounds as if some of those here actually want things to get worse, are looking for bad news, and will denounce every bit of good news that gets posted as ridiculous. What do you want? If the point is to find solutions, good and well. Isn't that what it's all about? But if the point is to suggest that there's nothing we can do, everything is going to hell in a handbasket and we might as well just blow our heads off, I mean, what's the point of that? If anyone here actually wants things to get worse, whoa, scary!
I don't think the comments are all negative - in fact I think my response to the tar sands was very factual and based on years of news articles on the tar sands we get here in Canada.
Too many of the positives are similar to the compact flourescant solution - too small to make a difference but a feel good for the public. Here the Ontario government is running adds telling people to have stock of 3 days supplies of water, etc. in their houses on TV (general problems like blackouts, pandemeic, etc. not PO).
Unfortunately large scale measures are needed to fix the problem all of which will have major effects on society - any of them in isolation is like putting a finger in a broken dyke to stop a leak. Major societal changes in transportation, agriculture, personal consumption, etc. will be required and it is unlikely that this will occur smoothly.
Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 10:43 pm Post subject: Re: There's plenty of oil left
Concerned1 wrote:
You know, I've been coming here for a while now, trying to stay up on things. And I've been reading everyone's comments to see what they have to say. I think a lot of people who comment here are genuinely concerned about the future of energy. They're comments are genuine and their fears understandable. But I'm disturbed by the number of comments I've been reading by people who knock every bit of good news that comes along. Honestly, it almost sounds as if some of those here actually want things to get worse, are looking for bad news, and will denounce every bit of good news that gets posted as ridiculous. What do you want? If the point is to find solutions, good and well. Isn't that what it's all about? But if the point is to suggest that there's nothing we can do, everything is going to hell in a handbasket and we might as well just blow our heads off, I mean, what's the point of that? If anyone here actually wants things to get worse, whoa, scary!
Concerned1, it's difficult to read constant, chronic pessimism. It is especially unpleasant when it is couched, as it often is here, in cynical and abusive language. If your own life has any meaning to you personally than the demise of the world that created you should bring grief, not joy. Apparently many here do not really like their own lives.
However false hope is worse. It leaves one ill-prepared and is often a cover for scams or other self-serving agendas. I don't know what the articles say, but I am familiar enough with these technologies from my own research to know that at best they are horrible to the environment and impossible to scale up.
Vogelzang is a troll with an agenda and I am sure his post is a complete joke. Don't waste your time reading it. I didn't There are possible solutions to peak oil but there do not involve trashing our only planet and expecting our car culture to continue. We need to powerdown, transform out transportation system, and rethink and rewire suburbia. Think that can happen in time?
Posted: Tue Jul 15, 2008 11:01 pm Post subject: Re: There's plenty of oil left
I'm probably one of most optimistic person on this planet, but I'm also a very logical/technical person and study the facts from all sides in all detail and try to come to conclusions in an objective, unbiased way.
I laughed at people who worried about the year 2k problem and I generally don't believe in any dooms-day scenarios. And I *want* to have a good future, I have kids for gods sake...
However, this is truly different. All the facts I've read lead to the same conclusion no matter how "optimistic" I try to be.
Oil will be declining in a few years at the latest, and it will drag down the economies with it, inflate food prices (and almost everything else too!). I see a real possibility of food shortages/starvation and chaos. It has completely changed my outlook of life, and I think I will be spending my old days gardening (if I survive...)
Vogelzang, you have to consider a few things:
- it's the *flow rate* that matters, not the amount!
- the "30$" price is calculated using *cheap oil*. The machinery to extract the tar sands uses lots of energy/oil! As the price of oil increases, so does the cost to extract! So the"30$" oil suddenly turns into "140$ oil" and so on. It's called the "law of receding horizons"
- even if we could get a huge flow rate (how), and it would be viable, it will take *many years* to ramp up any significant amount of production
- in addition, there are limits as mentioned above about the environment (water usage etc!)
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 12:38 am Post subject: Re: There's plenty of oil left
He's right, there is plenty of oil left. We just won't be able to get it out of the ground and into our cars/trucks/ships/planes fast enough to keep up with demand.
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 7:26 am Post subject: Re: There's plenty of oil left
Actually, "plenty" describes a situation in which there is far more oil than there is demand, indicating a price that should be low relative to other things in demand.
I would, instead, say we have "a lot" of oil left, because that doesn't carry the connotation that what we have is excessively plentiful, mainly because we USE "a lot" of oil.
Because it's not. _________________ "It's called the American Dream because you'd have to be asleep to believe it."
Joined: Jul 02, 2008 Posts: 436 Location: Espinho, Porto, Portugal
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 7:45 am Post subject: Re: There's plenty of oil left
vilemerchant wrote:
He's right, there is plenty of oil left. We just won't be able to get it out of the ground and into our cars/trucks/ships/planes fast enough to keep up with demand.
This is pretty much the incontrovertible problem. As pstarr pointed, powerdown seems the first sensible step, then a genuine investment in renewable, varied power sources.
Despair drives people into unreasonable ideas. Nuclear power is - in MY personal opinion - one of those ideas. Same with heavy sands.
This might give me a tree-hugger reputation, but one of the main problems with tar sands is the environmental impact: it's nuts! We'll HAVE to live in THIS planet, you know?
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There are possible solutions to peak oil but there do not involve trashing our only planet and expecting our car culture to continue. We need to powerdown, transform out transportation system, and rethink and rewire suburbia. Think that can happen in time?
ree rah rip ram. sunofabitch godamn. hidey didey christ almighty. rah rah crap 
