Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 4:29 am Post subject: Re: "Oil drops by most in 17 years"
emersonbiggins wrote:
Perhaps if "record high" was accompanied by "OMFG!!1!11! - like higher than it's ever been!," I'd trust that the reaction by J6P would be on a similar scale as he will undoubtedly express with "drops by most in 17 years." Hell, perhaps it isn't worth my arguing about...
I think we may just look at stuff w/ somethingoranother colored glasses, and I can't say I ain't as guilty as anyone else. I suppose the only way to know for certain would be to assess the impact of how people view time periods. Is "ever" seen as more or less powerful than a couple decades? _________________
Joined: Jun 13, 2007 Posts: 3585 Location: Minniesotuh
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 4:51 am Post subject: Re: "Oil drops by most in 17 years"
yesplease wrote:
I can't say I ain't as guilty as anyone else. I suppose the only way to know for certain would be to assess the impact of how people view time periods. Is "ever" seen as more or less powerful than a couple decades?
Right off the bat, I'd say one of the factors would be age. If you are 50, you see things a lot different than if you were 20. _________________ "RRrrruuuunnnn!!!" ~Apocalypto
Joined: Jul 03, 2008 Posts: 12 Location: Colorado Springs, CO
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 5:43 am Post subject: Re: "Oil drops by most in 17 years"
You've gotta be kidding me. Seems like every day for the past six months we've been hearing/reading news stories on a daily basis about how oil has set a new record, and all of a sudden MSM reporting on oil's biggest drop in 17 years is some sort of cornucopian conspiracy? This site gets better by the day.
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 7:16 am Post subject: Re: "Oil drops by most in 17 years"
ThereWillBeMoreBlood wrote:
You've gotta be kidding me. Seems like every day for the past six months we've been hearing/reading news stories on a daily basis about how oil has set a new record, and all of a sudden MSM reporting on oil's biggest drop in 17 years is some sort of cornucopian conspiracy? This site gets better by the day.
I'm just not a big fan of qualifiers, if they're used selectively and inconsistently.
No conspiracy here - that's all in your head. But thanks for playing! _________________ "It's called the American Dream because you'd have to be asleep to believe it."
Joined: Dec 07, 2005 Posts: 1821 Location: Australia
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 7:48 am Post subject: Re: "Oil drops by most in 17 years"
Quote:
You've gotta be kidding me. Seems like every day for the past six months we've been hearing/reading news stories on a daily basis about how oil has set a new record, and all of a sudden MSM reporting on oil's biggest drop in 17 years is some sort of cornucopian conspiracy? This site gets better by the day.
15th of July will from now on be celebrated as Plunge Protection day.
Seriously, this was tape painting of the most blatant kind.
But it was easy. So many traders sit on profits. Just apply the right kind of pressure and the black boxes start yelling SELL SELL.
I've been watching same stuff on the gold market for a few years now. Come options expiry week, Bernanke makes a speach, Paulson says something, bad employment data, high inflation figures. Gold always goes into sell mode. _________________ Lets take a ride, and run with the dogs tonight
In suburbia
You cant hide, run with the dogs tonight
In suburbia
- Pet Shop Boys
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 8:07 am Post subject: Re: "Oil drops by most in 17 years"
emersonbiggins wrote:
I'm just not a big fan of qualifiers, if they're used selectively and inconsistently. No conspiracy here - that's all in your head. But thanks for playing!
Perception trumps reality - until reality catches up!
Joined: Sep 09, 2004 Posts: 388 Location: Upstate New York, U.S.A.
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 8:44 am Post subject: Re: "Oil drops by most in 17 years"
Hogan wrote:
DantesPeak, by the way, I think I found you a new avatar:
That Iranian oil worker looks like someone out of 1970's Buck Rogers.
Master Blaster runs Barter Town! _________________ "I went to the woods because I wished to live deliberately, to front only the essential facts of life, and see if I could not learn what it had to teach, and not, when I came to die, discover that I had not lived." - Henry David Thoreau
Joined: Mar 04, 2005 Posts: 2638 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 11:20 pm Post subject: Re: "Oil drops by most in 17 years"
Betting on Oil's Return to Earth
Quote:
When will oil's visit to the stratosphere end? Almost to a man (and woman), the oil watchers of Wall Street say the question cannot be answered, even though the price per barrel slid more than $10 on July 15 and 16. There are just too many factors propping up crude even to contemplate a dramatic decline.
But Edward L. Morse, Lehman Brothers' (LEH) chief energy economist, says the oil bubble (he dubs it Oil Dot-com) will burst by New Year's. Not only that, he predicts a plunge to about $93 a barrel. Pretty audacious as prognostications go, at a time when Goldman Sachs (GS) foresees $200 a barrel. To that Morse just replies that he's the one talking sense. "We are trying to keep our heads in a wild market," he says.
Morse is the most prominent oil contrarian on Wall Street. Before joining Lehman two years ago, he taught international monetary policy at Princeton University, was Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for international energy policy in the Carter Administration, co-founded consultants PFC Energy, and was publisher of Petroleum Intelligence Weekly. "He likes to be a provocateur," says Frank Verrastro, director of energy at the Center for Strategic & International Studies in Washington, who served with Morse under Carter.
The 66-year-old Morse gives several reasons for being bearish. First, oil has long been cyclical. Why should the pendulum stop now? Second, Morse thinks China's go-for-broke industrial economy is slowing, leading to a "radical" reduction in its oil demand after the summer. Third, he foresees a big buildup in oil inventories this fall and, longer term, a greater flow of crude as new deepwater drilling rigs reach equipment-starved producers in the Gulf of Mexico. Finally, 13 million barrels a day of new refinery capacity will be available by 2013, making hard-to-process crudes more marketable.
businessweek _________________ Human history becomes more and more a race between education and catastrophe. H. G. Wells.
Fatih Birol's motto: leave oil before it leaves us.
Joined: Dec 07, 2005 Posts: 1821 Location: Australia
Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 11:33 pm Post subject: Re: "Oil drops by most in 17 years"
Quote:
Morse thinks China's go-for-broke industrial economy is slowing, leading to a "radical" reduction in its oil demand after the summer.
For now I take issue with the above. Growth is slowing, it is not negative. So oil demand should continue to increase albeit at a slower speed.
The whole talk about trend reversal is quite premature for the simple reasons that $150 resistance was to be expected.
Heck even I predicted this on 3rd of July (here). It is really simple, too many have made too much money too easily. Start a sell off and traders rush to exists to take their profits.
Trends rarely change unless there is an underlying fundamental change. I just don't see that now.
Secondly, the timing of the whole selloff seems so sus it suggests it was tape painting excercise together with normal selloff.
How low can it go??? Depends on if government can start selling SPR oil without the market knowing. One has to wonder if they can attempt leasing of SPR oil to traders who then short the market like they do with gold. That could make things look really good for a little while. If this happend I would probably step over into the doomer camp as the long term implications could be horrendeous. _________________ Lets take a ride, and run with the dogs tonight
In suburbia
You cant hide, run with the dogs tonight
In suburbia
- Pet Shop Boys
Joined: Dec 07, 2005 Posts: 1821 Location: Australia
Posted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 7:11 pm Post subject: Re: "Oil drops by most in 17 years"
Hmmm...don't even remember.
I save pics that I think I may want to use in the future to my HD whenever I come across them.
It is actually just a trick of the camera that isn't well seen when the picture is cropped. The dog is jumping after a frisbee or something that the lady is holding just in front of her. (Appologies if anyone is disappointed) Thought the effect came out quite well after cropping it. _________________ Lets take a ride, and run with the dogs tonight
In suburbia
You cant hide, run with the dogs tonight
In suburbia
- Pet Shop Boys
Posted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 7:23 pm Post subject: Re: "Oil drops by most in 17 years"
Once Dolly hops into the Gulf and gets her feet wet, maybe we'll have the largest INCREASE in oil in 17 years!
_________________ "By the time individuals discover that remaining resources will not be adequate for the next generation, the next generation has already been born. " David Price
Joined: Dec 06, 2005 Posts: 848 Location: Stopped at the border.
Posted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 9:21 pm Post subject: Re: "Oil drops by most in 17 years"
There is no way that market manipulators can arrest the oil price curve. Demand destruction can, however, accomplish that. As we enter the peak period, which may last a while, we should be prepared for wild price fluctuations in which there is real uncertainty in the markets as to which way things will go. No one should be surprised if we see oil at $85 sometime in the fall. Neither should they offer any exclamation if we see $200 in two years. This is going to be a wild ride! _________________ "Hope encourages men to take risks; men in a strong position may follow her without ruin, if not without loss. But when they stake all that they have to the last coin (for she is a spendthrift), she reveals her real self in the hour of failure."
Posted: Fri Jul 25, 2008 2:00 pm Post subject: Re: "Oil drops by most in 17 years"
rdsaltpower wrote:
Gas fell today from 4.03 to 3.99.
Holy Jeez - quick, let me fire up the Winnebago. _________________ Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
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