I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 12:42 am Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World)
Disclaimer: I haven't the time to double check the grammar, let alone the math on this and won't for a couple of weeks. so
1)please fact check me.
2)I'm intrigued enough that I will put something together in mid to late august.
Until then:
I was wrong. The issue is not (yet) one of grain production and biofuels.
1960 we produced `.75 billion tons of grain when the world population was 3.04 billion people... so there was about 500# of grain per person on the globe.
Presently we are producing 2 billion tons of grain a year, we are using ~.06 billion for ethanol and the population is 6.6 billion so there are 1.94 billion tons of grain available to eat or 580# per person on the globe.
Concerning biodiesel, The data is so scattered (and in various units of measurements from tons to tonnes to gallons and conversion rates that go from grams to ounces and pounds to tons of liquid) that we will have to leave any detailed breakdown to another day. But it must be noted that harvest size has multiplied by a factor of 6 since 1960 while population has "just" doubled.
"I was guilty of making the world too simple and I will try to keep that in mind in the future."
---------------
Let me try to "sketch out" the complex situation. I will address this in more detail when I have more time (mid to late August).
1. There remains however the increased world consumption of meat.
This is tricky to parse, not all of that meat was raised in the american feedlot system of beef and most of it was chicken (and behind that pork) and chicken is a more efficient way to convert grain to meat. We are producing more grain per capita but how much of that net gain is going into meat? I have no idea. Meat production has, however, multiplied by a factor of 4 during a time period when population doubled (a 100% increase per global person) while grain production has only increased 16% per global person.
Because I can not quantify how much more grain is going to produce that meat I cannot fully demonstrate that there is less grain available as a primary food source for people but it seems like a reasonable assumption. I don't think we have increased efficiency to the point where a 16% per capita increase in grain could lead to a 100% per capita increase in meat with out resulting in a net loss of grain availble for primary consumption per capita. But I will try to track down some information in August.
2. Ultimately our "growing food crisis" is a problem of income disparity.
As we divert grain previously used as a primary food for people to other uses (for meat and, to a much lesser extent, fuel) we are doing so in a world where the richest third is expereincing increased income compared to the second and lowest thirds.
While the first world reached a milk and meat saturation point decades ago (our consumption has been relatively flat) I would suspect that the middle third has seen an upturn in their curve in the last 10 years (when that graph ends). I would point to the changes in China as an example:
.
The growing food crisis is a problem of allocation. the richest 2/3rds can and are choosing to allocate grains to meat and the lowest 1/3 have not been able to keep up with the compartive wealth build and are being out bid.
Consequences:
A fall in prices would not help unless the incomes of the top two thirds fall faster than grain prices and the bottom third can maintain their current proportion of world income... otherwise we will just continue to out bid them... at least until such time that it such decreases in disparite income result in less meat consumption (and thus production) on the part of the first and second thirds of the world population making more grain available for primary consumption bringing down prices even further.
I do not think we will grow ourselves out of this problem. we discussed the problems of a second green revolution earlier in the thread and I will not re-hash the arguments, conservation is the key.
This could happen before we reach some type of "die-off" situation but this is just a rough sketch so I will address it when I try to put out something more comprehensive.
See you in a few weeks...
-wisconsin_cur
---------------------------------
edit: thank you to yesplease for articulating an argument in such a way that it forced me to think more complexly... is that even a word?
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 8:19 am Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World)
wisconsin_cur wrote:
Specop_007 wrote:
wisconsin_cur wrote:
The fact that we have been trying not to drown for a long time is not proof that we are not under threat of drowning. To sit back and say bobbing in the water is fun when it is not you who are under the immediate threat is a little... well pick your own adjective.
It does however seem to demonstrate a lack of empathy.
I would contend assuming I should run around ina panic because someone, somewhere is in risk of drowning is a little...well, as you say. Pick your adjective.
Panic is a sudden fear which dominates or replaces thinking and often affects groups of people or animals. Panics typically occur in disaster situations, or violent situations (such as robbery, home invasion, a shooting rampage, etc.) which may endanger the overall health of the affected group. The word panic derives from the name of the Greek god Pan, who was said to have the ability to cause extreme, irrational fear, especially in lonely or open places. Panic is also known as Anxiety.
Prehistoric man used mass panic as a technique when hunting animals, especially ruminants. Herds reacting to unusually strong sounds or unfamiliar visual effects were directed towards cliffs, where they eventually jumped to their deaths when cornered.[citation needed]
Humans are also vulnerable to panic and it is often considered infectious, in the sense one person's panic may easily spread to other people nearby and soon the entire group acts irrationally, but people also have the ability to prevent and/or control their own and other's panic by disciplined thinking or training (such as disaster drills). Architects and city planners try to accommodate the symptoms of panic, such as herd behavior, during design and planning, often using simulations to determine the best way to lead people to a safe exit and prevent congestion (stampedes). The most effective methods are often nonintuitive. A tall column, approximately 1 ft (300 mm) in diameter, placed in front of the door exit at a precisely calculated distance, may speed up the evacuation of a large room by up to 30%, as the obstacle divides the congestion well ahead of the choke point.
I think my responses are rationale and rooted in the facts. Perhaps you can point out the irrationality of my argument? Without sarcasm, I can say that I would love to be shown where I am wrong, rationally.
I would pick the adjectives, "compassionate", "empathetic" or even "self-centered" since I too am a human being and could (it is unlikely but conceivable) someday be bid out of the market for food. Keeping track of the rise in world-wide food prices helps me know how to prepare.
It is at the very least I think it is important to be humane by showing compassion toward those who are suffering. but that is an issue of another thread. but I do think humanity is worth hanging onto regardless of what the future holds.
I dont need the dictionary qouted to me.
Fact is as I have said people will die. Your irrational argument is assuming we can save them, or that we should even care.
Rationally you should not care. YOU CANNOT SAVE THEM. There are going to be lots and lots of people who are going to starve to death, or die in other painful ways.
More to the point, why care? Give me a rational, logical reason I should give a flying rats ass about these people in turd world countries that are being raped, burned, hacked and are starving? Mind you not an emotional argument, I want a rational logical argument devoid of emotion.
The continuance of the human race? We hardly need 6 million people for that let alone 6 billion. To maintain diversity amongst humanity? Again that doesnt take 6 billion people.
Your trying to pass off emtional arguments and unbiased and objective logic. _________________ "Battle not with monsters, lest ye become a monster, and if you gaze into the
Abyss, the Abyss gazes also into you."
Ammo at a gunfight is like bubblegum in grade school: If you havent brought enough for everyone, you're in trouble
كا&#
Last edited by Specop_007 on Wed Jul 16, 2008 11:44 am; edited 1 time in total
Rain continues to fall in Wheatbelt
Wednesday July 16, 2008 - 15:25 EST
Rain is continuing to fall in parts of the Mid West and Wheatbelt after 24 hours of strong falls.
Coastal areas were drenched, averaging more than 30 millimetres.
The Wheatbelt averaged between 15 and 20 millimetres in most parts.
Heavy rains also fell in the South West.
John Williams, who runs a merino property south of Bindoon, says the deluge was enough to not only soak crops but fill dams as well.
"So good, absolutely so good," he said.
"The basketball court out here was awash with water, water was running off the roofs, it was absolutely magic. It's the way it should be. Like the winters of old, I'd guess."
The wet conditions look set to continue with further rains forecast later in the week.
Wheat Tumbles as Harvest in U.S. May Overwhelm Grain Demand
By Tony C. Dreibus
July 17 (Bloomberg) -- Wheat fell almost 3 percent on speculation that the biggest U.S. winter crop in a decade will overwhelm demand.
Domestic growers may collect 1.86 billion bushels, or 51 million metric tons, of winter wheat in the harvest that began last month, the most since 1998, the Department of Agriculture said. About 62 percent of the crop was harvested as of July 13, USDA data show. Wheat futures have plunged 40 percent from a record in February as global farmers increased seeding.
``We've got lot of soft red-winter wheat to move,'' said Darrell Holaday, the president of Ag Watch Market Advisers in Manhattan, Kansas. ``Prices will come down.''
Wheat futures for September delivery fell 24.5 cents, or 2.9 percent, to $8.095 a bushel on the Chicago Board of Trade. The percentage drop was the biggest for a most-active contract since July 7. The price still has climbed 35 percent in the past year after adverse weather curbed production in 2007. The record on Feb. 27 was $13.495.
U.S. growers seeded 46.6 million acres with winter wheat from September through November, up 3.6 percent from the prior year, government data show.
Production of soft red-winter wheat, grown mostly in the eastern Midwest from Arkansas to Ohio and used to make cookies and cakes, will total 606.5 million bushels, up 69 percent from the prior year, the USDA said on July 11.
Growers will collect 1.04 billion bushels of hard-red varieties, seeded mostly from Kansas to Texas and used to make bread, up from 961.6 million bushels the prior year, according to the government.
Posted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 6:35 am Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World)
I have 60 acres of irrigated land in CRP program where govt pays me to NOT grow anything.
THere are 60 million acres like that in the midwest. And millions more in golf courses, right of ways on the highways, yards, football stadiums, and parks. THINK what we COULD raise if we wanted too.
Posted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 7:30 am Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World)
joelcolorado wrote:
I have 60 acres of irrigated land in CRP program where govt pays me to NOT grow anything.
THere are 60 million acres like that in the midwest. And millions more in golf courses, right of ways on the highways, yards, football stadiums, and parks. THINK what we COULD raise if we wanted too.
Which would bring down prices, allow more humans on the top two thirds of the economic food chain to eat more meat while the poorest 1/3 go continue be unable to afford the feedstock we are giving to the meat
I am becoming convinced that the immediate problem is one of income disparity while population growth and production plateau are secondary to the issue . as it stands today.
Joined: Apr 12, 2007 Posts: 1185 Location: Central NC
Posted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 7:38 am Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World)
joelcolorado wrote:
THere are 60 million acres like that in the midwest. And millions more in golf courses, right of ways on the highways, yards, football stadiums, and parks. THINK what we COULD raise if we wanted too.
Just THINK of the fossil fuel inputs that would be required, the soil degradation, and the increased dead zone in the Gulf of Mexico. _________________ "The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences…"
Sir Winston Churchill
Posted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 7:56 am Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World)
I KNOW the arguments. But we are not out of food or short of food. Just a poor allocation of resources.
And why farmers dont make their own fuel from the waste cellulose straw and fibers they have is stupid beyond belief. I am thinking ofmaking mine from my grass clippings from my lawn.
Posted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 7:57 am Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World)
Homesteader said:
Quote:
Just THINK of the fossil fuel inputs that would be required, the soil degradation, and the increased dead zone in the Gulf of Mexico.
Exactly Homesteader! Agriculture is an extremely energy intensive industry, and as we approach the end of the fossil fuel age food prices will continue to escalate. Having an abundance of land on which to grow food is not a help if you don’t have the energy to plant, harvest, process, transport and distribute it.
Energy = Food. Even on this site, the epitome of energy understanding, this simple concept is ignored or not understood. Unless the world takes an aggressive approach to the energy problem (among many others) the world’s poor will starve, and the poor will soon include a vast number of new members.
Posted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 7:58 am Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World)
Each farmer can make his own fuel. One cow makes 200 liters of methane gas a year off of manure alone. Cellulose ethanol is easy to make. Just takes work and most farmers dont like to work that hard. Plant and harvest from a big ass machine is what they want. Easy
Posted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 8:00 am Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World)
There are billions of tons of manure out here in the feelots that they cannot get rid of. Farmers want to run fast over a field with liquid oil based fertilizer.
Think of the methane you could make with all that manure then have a rich compost to put on your fields. WHOA
Joined: May 30, 2008 Posts: 270 Location: On the highway, or the water somewhere!
Posted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 8:05 am Post subject: Re: The Spreading Food Crisis Thread (U.S. & World)
wisconsin_cur wrote:
joelcolorado wrote:
I have 60 acres of irrigated land in CRP program where govt pays me to NOT grow anything.
There are 60 million acres like that in the mid-west. And millions more in golf courses, right of ways on the highways, yards, football stadiums, and parks. THINK what we COULD raise if we wanted too.
Which would bring down prices, allow more humans on the top two thirds of the economic food chain to eat more meat while the poorest 1/3 go continue be unable to afford the feedstock we are giving to the meat
I am becoming convinced that the immediate problem is one of income disparity while population growth and production plateau are secondary to the issue . as it stands today.
Well well you finally have seen the beginning of the real problem.
The poor have no way to afford to eat because they are poor...
There are several camps of people offering several tried (and failed) systems to address the problem.
Most people who do not think through the ramifications prefer the Robbin hood answer... ( rob the rich to give to the poor) ( also known as socialism, liberal progressive, or even historically national socialism... )
The real solution comes from empowering the poor to become less poor... the method used to accomplish that has been the debate of centuries not a peak oil problem at all. one early European answer was to allow selected people the power of ruler ship depending on their "guidance" and altruistic nature to accomplish this... They called this system Monarchy....
We call it democracy and pretend it works better than the old European plan..... Citizen or serf, being poor sucks.... _________________ Courtesy and Courage, Sincerity and Self-control, Honor and Loyalty...a Code to Live By!
Where is my wooden pitchfork and torch anyway? I may need them for a visit to the castle soon!
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