Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 9:30 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27)
AirlinePilot said:
Quote:
I watched the price dive almost 6 bucks just now in the space of less than about a minute or two. I have to believe that the volatility we are seeing lately is due only to greed, programmed selling and a lack of knowledge about what is really happening with supply.
Code:
.............. 07/11/08 07/04/08 07/11/07 Prev Week Yr Ago
Total Stocks (Excl SPR) (7) 981.2 973.7 1,040.7 0.8 -5.7
This is truly spooky. -5.7% over last year is 2.2% lower than my model predicts. It is almost like world production is following the US decline of the early 70’s. I’m not sure exactly why, unless enhanced extraction methods are comsumimg a lot more energy than I estimated.
If this continues, we are in a lot deeper crap than I previously estimated!
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 9:34 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27)
chuck6877 wrote:
Honestly, I didn't know to check out"that bearish MACD divergence!"
Are there any "technical analysis for dummies" books out there!? I'd love to know more.
Come into My Trading Room by Alexander Elder is a wonderful intro to all things trading including technical analysis. Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets by John Murphy is a more thorough tech analysis text book. It's not "for dummies" level though, it could be (and probably is) the text book for a college class.
The chart you posted includes the MACD histogram (the bar graph thingy at the bottom). MACD histogram measures the strength of bull and bear moves. In an uptrend, when each progressive bull move is making a progressively smaller hump, that's called a bearish MACD divergence. It shows that the bulls are running out of steam to push the price higher and a reversal is likely. If it does it twice, that's somewhat suggestive. Three is really suggestive. This one did it five times. The last 5 bull moves the peak of the MACD histogram gets smaller. This last move set a record high price, but the MACD histogram only ticked one blip above zero. So then this morning the trend broke. _________________ "We were standing on the edges
Of a thousand burning bridges
Sifting through the ashes every day
What we thought would never end
Now is nothing more than a memory
The way things were before
I lost my way" - OCMS
Last edited by smallpoxgirl on Wed Jul 16, 2008 9:35 am; edited 1 time in total
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 9:34 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27)
AP wrote:
"I do believe many right in these very forums have predicted extreme volatility once we reach and pass the peak. I see it simply as a verification that the markets are doing exactly what we thought they would."
+1
short said:
"If this continues, we are in a lot deeper crap than I previously estimated!"
Yes in deedie! So how would this change your estimate of when we hit the EROEI wall (where it takes more energy to extract oil than the energy of the oil extracted)? No longer 17 years away now?
Oil prices seem to be resuming their (temporary) decline today--a four-dollar drop in the last few minutes--wtf is that about? How low will we go till the inevitable moon shot? What would be a good price to buy at?
Last edited by dohboi on Wed Jul 16, 2008 10:07 am; edited 2 times in total
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 9:41 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27)
Mother nature might be stepping up to the plate. Checkout Invest 94. The Hurricane Hunters are going on a recon shortly to take a look to see if they can find Cristobal. _________________ It's a cold cold world when a man has to pawn his shoes.
Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 2606 Location: South of Atlanta
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 10:10 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27)
shortonoil wrote:
This is truly spooky. -5.7% over last year is 2.2% lower than my model predicts. It is almost like world production is following the US decline of the early 70’s. I’m not sure exactly why, unless enhanced extraction methods are comsumimg a lot more energy than I estimated.
If this continues, we are in a lot deeper crap than I previously estimated!
IMHO this is THE ONLY STORY. At some point it will get reported but any moves one way or another in the short term will seemingly overlook the over arching issue of production and declining inventories.
I just dont believe its possible to turn such a gigantic and overwhelming amount of data around quickly enough to matter.
The caution for most is not to trust these daily, hourly, or minute to minute swings. Long term they will be nothing but noise around the trend.
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 10:34 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27)
Did anyone else see Allan Sloan and Gretchen Morgenson on Charlie Rose last night discussing the economy? It was grim, grim, grim. Sloan was using words like "creepy" and "scary" over and over again.
Even the usually sunny Amory Lovins who was interviewed later admitted that many of his favorite innovations in efficiency would have helped if they had been adopted years ago.
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 10:46 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27)
Oil Falls After Report Shows Unexpected Increase in Supplies Link
This is the reason why the oil price goes down more...but do you really believe it? Maybe it's really starting to have real demand destruction...but it will really be painful one.
Let's wait for August if Israel are given the green light for military strike...on Iran. Frankly, Israel need no permission to do preemptive attack if there is a immediate threat but needed coordination of using USA's military bases airspace and other coordinate defense against retaliation.
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 10:51 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27)
Front-month future contracts are closing out tomorrow, are they not?
This probably explains some of the selloff, and the volume. _________________ "It's called the American Dream because you'd have to be asleep to believe it."
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 12:48 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27)
Look folks. The graph on top is natural gas. The graph on the bottom is crude oil. See any similarities? Just because the fundamentals are strong, doesn't mean this thing is going straight up with no corrections. The light blue line on the bottom, by the way, is the 200 day moving average. This isn't just about an inventories report. _________________ "We were standing on the edges
Of a thousand burning bridges
Sifting through the ashes every day
What we thought would never end
Now is nothing more than a memory
The way things were before
I lost my way" - OCMS
Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 2606 Location: South of Atlanta
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 1:42 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27)
Ok, smallpox, I get it! Now tell me when it goes below about 115-120$ please so I can buy a crapload more USO!
Most of the time charts and graphs with trendlines, averages, candles, etc, etc work fine, but when it comes to something like oil, and the market beginning to get a grip on the potential for supply to begin a decline, forever, those things just won't work anymore.
I see what your saying though. We should expect more volatility and the support, while trending higher, is still below where we are.
The real story is that 200DMA and being where it is should alone raise concerns.
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 2:09 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27)
AirlinePilot wrote:
Now tell me when it goes below about 115-120$ please so I can buy a crapload more USO!
Not till I buy mine. Wouldn't want you evil oil speculators driving up the price and all. _________________ "We were standing on the edges
Of a thousand burning bridges
Sifting through the ashes every day
What we thought would never end
Now is nothing more than a memory
The way things were before
I lost my way" - OCMS
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 2:10 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27)
SPG, should we not expect the marginal barrel cost to, at some point, rise exponentially and, thus, negate or invalidate its relationship to the 200 dma? In other words, why 200 dma? Why not 50 dma? What makes that relationship fundamental to the price of oil?
Of course, what you've posted of NG gives definite cause of concern for the near-term price of crude oil. _________________ "It's called the American Dream because you'd have to be asleep to believe it."
Joined: Dec 02, 2005 Posts: 6786 Location: Oil-addicted Southern Californucopia
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 2:21 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27)
dohboi wrote:
Doomerism is now mainstream.
Big time. You should've seen the CNBC bunch Monday morning. They were as bad as us. They really do seem to be genuinely scared. _________________ "Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 2:21 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27)
emersonbiggins wrote:
In other words, why 200 dma? Why not 50 dma? What makes that relationship fundamental to the price of oil?
Prices of any traded thing move in more or less the same way...surge, retrace, surge, retrace. It's got to do with people's psychology, and also with the time lag of demand adjusting to supply. With anything that's traded, that same pattern happens in multiple different time scales simultaneously. It's sort of the same concept as fractals. If you look at a piece of a one year weekly chart, it ends up looking very similar to a 2month daily chart, or a one day chart with one minute increments.
So yeah. 50dma. That's more or less where the straight line is. You can see it repeatedly checking back to that line. On the longer time scale, uptrends also tend to check back with the 200dma. _________________ "We were standing on the edges
Of a thousand burning bridges
Sifting through the ashes every day
What we thought would never end
Now is nothing more than a memory
The way things were before
I lost my way" - OCMS
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 2:42 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27)
Wow, I would have swore the support was going to hold and we'd see a spike to $150!
This is going to leave a lot of bulls hungry for more......
Like you said SPG, I think the correction is now definitely started.
We'll see large moves up and down but mostly down for a month or two.
My guess is a bottom around $110-$115 because that's where the 200dma will be when the price gets down there.
Was fun while it lasted!
Gonna order the first book you recommended today for starters SPG. I knew WHAT the MACD was but didn't know how to read it very well. Thanks for the one quick lesson
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