Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 10:34 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27)
Did anyone else see Allan Sloan and Gretchen Morgenson on Charlie Rose last night discussing the economy? It was grim, grim, grim. Sloan was using words like "creepy" and "scary" over and over again.
Even the usually sunny Amory Lovins who was interviewed later admitted that many of his favorite innovations in efficiency would have helped if they had been adopted years ago.
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 10:46 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27)
Oil Falls After Report Shows Unexpected Increase in Supplies Link
This is the reason why the oil price goes down more...but do you really believe it? Maybe it's really starting to have real demand destruction...but it will really be painful one.
Let's wait for August if Israel are given the green light for military strike...on Iran. Frankly, Israel need no permission to do preemptive attack if there is a immediate threat but needed coordination of using USA's military bases airspace and other coordinate defense against retaliation.
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 10:51 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27)
Front-month future contracts are closing out tomorrow, are they not?
This probably explains some of the selloff, and the volume. _________________ "It's called the American Dream because you'd have to be asleep to believe it."
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 12:48 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27)
Look folks. The graph on top is natural gas. The graph on the bottom is crude oil. See any similarities? Just because the fundamentals are strong, doesn't mean this thing is going straight up with no corrections. The light blue line on the bottom, by the way, is the 200 day moving average. This isn't just about an inventories report. _________________ "So while you sit and whistle Dixie with your money and your power.
I can hear the flowers a-growin in the rubble of the towers.
I hear leaders quit their lying
I hear babies quit their crying.
I hear soldiers quit their dying, one and all." - OCMS
Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 2464 Location: South of Atlanta
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 1:42 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27)
Ok, smallpox, I get it! Now tell me when it goes below about 115-120$ please so I can buy a crapload more USO!
Most of the time charts and graphs with trendlines, averages, candles, etc, etc work fine, but when it comes to something like oil, and the market beginning to get a grip on the potential for supply to begin a decline, forever, those things just won't work anymore.
I see what your saying though. We should expect more volatility and the support, while trending higher, is still below where we are.
The real story is that 200DMA and being where it is should alone raise concerns.
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 2:09 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27)
AirlinePilot wrote:
Now tell me when it goes below about 115-120$ please so I can buy a crapload more USO!
Not till I buy mine. Wouldn't want you evil oil speculators driving up the price and all. _________________ "So while you sit and whistle Dixie with your money and your power.
I can hear the flowers a-growin in the rubble of the towers.
I hear leaders quit their lying
I hear babies quit their crying.
I hear soldiers quit their dying, one and all." - OCMS
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 2:10 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27)
SPG, should we not expect the marginal barrel cost to, at some point, rise exponentially and, thus, negate or invalidate its relationship to the 200 dma? In other words, why 200 dma? Why not 50 dma? What makes that relationship fundamental to the price of oil?
Of course, what you've posted of NG gives definite cause of concern for the near-term price of crude oil. _________________ "It's called the American Dream because you'd have to be asleep to believe it."
Joined: Dec 02, 2005 Posts: 6388 Location: Oil-addicted Southern Californucopia
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 2:21 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27)
dohboi wrote:
Doomerism is now mainstream.
Big time. You should've seen the CNBC bunch Monday morning. They were as bad as us. They really do seem to be genuinely scared. _________________ "Thank you for attending the oil age. We're going to scrape what we can out of these tar pits in Alberta and then shut down the machines and turn out the lights. Goodnight." - seldom_seen
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 2:21 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27)
emersonbiggins wrote:
In other words, why 200 dma? Why not 50 dma? What makes that relationship fundamental to the price of oil?
Prices of any traded thing move in more or less the same way...surge, retrace, surge, retrace. It's got to do with people's psychology, and also with the time lag of demand adjusting to supply. With anything that's traded, that same pattern happens in multiple different time scales simultaneously. It's sort of the same concept as fractals. If you look at a piece of a one year weekly chart, it ends up looking very similar to a 2month daily chart, or a one day chart with one minute increments.
So yeah. 50dma. That's more or less where the straight line is. You can see it repeatedly checking back to that line. On the longer time scale, uptrends also tend to check back with the 200dma. _________________ "So while you sit and whistle Dixie with your money and your power.
I can hear the flowers a-growin in the rubble of the towers.
I hear leaders quit their lying
I hear babies quit their crying.
I hear soldiers quit their dying, one and all." - OCMS
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 2:42 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27)
Wow, I would have swore the support was going to hold and we'd see a spike to $150!
This is going to leave a lot of bulls hungry for more......
Like you said SPG, I think the correction is now definitely started.
We'll see large moves up and down but mostly down for a month or two.
My guess is a bottom around $110-$115 because that's where the 200dma will be when the price gets down there.
Was fun while it lasted!
Gonna order the first book you recommended today for starters SPG. I knew WHAT the MACD was but didn't know how to read it very well. Thanks for the one quick lesson
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 2:50 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27)
AirlinePilot wrote:
Ok, smallpox, I get it! Now tell me when it goes below about 115-120$ please so I can buy a crapload more USO!
Most of the time charts and graphs with trendlines, averages, candles, etc, etc work fine, but when it comes to something like oil, and the market beginning to get a grip on the potential for supply to begin a decline, forever, those things just won't work anymore.
I see what your saying though. We should expect more volatility and the support, while trending higher, is still below where we are.
The real story is that 200DMA and being where it is should alone raise concerns.
I learned the hard way 2 years ago that the 200dma is a magnet after a big run up in almost anything.
When Gold went from $730 to $540 two years ago I lost a bunch on a leveraged gold position. I never thought in a million years we'd go down that far. Guess what was at $540? The 200dma!
Guess where gold just corrected to this last run? The 200 dma at $850 down from its high of $1030.......
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 2:54 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27)
Thanks for that explanation, SPG. I'll have to study up on this subject further, it seems. _________________ "It's called the American Dream because you'd have to be asleep to believe it."
Joined: Apr 13, 2005 Posts: 3010 Location: St.Louis, Mo
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 4:47 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27)
smallpoxgirl wrote:
emersonbiggins wrote:
In other words, why 200 dma? Why not 50 dma? What makes that relationship fundamental to the price of oil?
Prices of any traded thing move in more or less the same way...surge, retrace, surge, retrace. It's got to do with people's psychology, and also with the time lag of demand adjusting to supply. With anything that's traded, that same pattern happens in multiple different time scales simultaneously. It's sort of the same concept as fractals. If you look at a piece of a one year weekly chart, it ends up looking very similar to a 2month daily chart, or a one day chart with one minute increments.
So yeah. 50dma. That's more or less where the straight line is. You can see it repeatedly checking back to that line. On the longer time scale, uptrends also tend to check back with the 200dma.
It's just so hard to compare oil with anything else. We are in uncharted waters as we speak. Say oil does go down to around $100.00, then what ? Does demand kick back up ? Then what ? Prices start jumping back up ? It's like whack-a-mole. I have given up trying to predict what's going to happen with the prices. I am just waiting for a cat 4 to enter the GOM before I start caring again.
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