Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 10:38 am Post subject: Re: Tackling the Cornucopians
Quote:
And I add again, what's the metric? 10 people/day? 1,000 people/week?
Something reasonable for a worldwide famine. A lot more than 10 people die everyday in the world because of other things (injury, sickness, old age).
Quote:
n short we have to work with what is and not fantasy that the 'copians promote.
With wishful thinking we can make up all sorts of dream worlds to escape the realities of life in.
I find 'copians do not like to stay in the present, but are predisposed to the future...far..far away.
Humans die in 30 days without food...we can't wait 20 years for our next meal...well maybe 'copians can?
But the reality is that all the oil is not just going to vanish overnight. Even if we hit the peak tomorrow it would still take many years, maybe even a decade or longer (depending on what conservation measures are put into effect) for it to become severe enough to destroy modern agriculture. If it was clear that this issue wasn't going to go away. do you really think we cant come up with something in 10-20 years?
And you know, the reason "'copians" exist is because the doomers have been making the prophecies of doom for decades, centuries even, and none of them have come true. "The great die off" was supposed to happen decades ago, and it didn't. I'd say the "'copians" have a pretty good track record so far.
Last edited by outcast on Wed Jul 16, 2008 10:55 am; edited 1 time in total
Joined: Jun 15, 2007 Posts: 566 Location: St.Albert, AB
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 12:56 pm Post subject: Re: Tackling the Cornucopians
MQ has shown that the cost of renewables will continue to escalate with the increasing cost of oil.
I'd like to have some input on the long term.
We tend to focus on the United States on this forum but I'd like to shift this question to China, India, Indonesia etc.
Will nations dive for debt to increase the production of renewables or simply ride the economic slope of $250 oil?
Gazprom has predicted $250 a barrel for 2009. I don't even know what to say about that scenario. Growth would be a word for the history books in that case.
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 1:27 pm Post subject: Re: Tackeling the Cornocopians
MattS wrote:
pstarr wrote:
When I read 'metric' instead of 'measure' I sometimes want to gag.
Why?
It's kind of like people saying 'methodology' instead of 'method,' showoffy, unnecessary, and is usually a sign the sentence is more for appearance then content. _________________ ree rah rip ram. sunofabitch godamn. hidey didey christ almighty. rah rah crap
Joined: May 26, 2008 Posts: 884 Location: Chicago, IL
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 5:14 pm Post subject: Re: Tackeling the Cornocopians
pstarr wrote:
MattS wrote:
pstarr wrote:
When I read 'metric' instead of 'measure' I sometimes want to gag.
Why?
It's kind of like people saying 'methodology' instead of 'method,' showoffy, unnecessary, and is usually a sign the sentence is more for appearance then content.
It must be hard to be so smart among so many dumb people.
Posted: Fri Jul 25, 2008 1:22 pm Post subject: Re: Tackling the Cornucopians
I just realized that all the talk about EVs is just more cornucopian blather. All the fossil fuels used for electricity generation are in peak except for coal which is way too polluting to burn more.
Posted: Fri Jul 25, 2008 2:40 pm Post subject: Re: Tackling the Cornucopians
Serial_Worrier wrote:
I just realized that all the talk about EVs is just more cornucopian blather. All the fossil fuels used for electricity generation are in peak except for coal which is way too polluting to burn more.
Except that we don't have to use fossil fuels for electricity generation. Granted, a negawatt is better than a megawatt, but in either event adding affordable EVs to the grid would only require a few percent increase in generating capacity, a few percent reduction in consumption, and/or both. Unless of course we all happen to dig up a couple hundred thousand to fund electric SUVs. _________________
Posted: Fri Jul 25, 2008 3:00 pm Post subject: Re: Tackling the Cornucopians
Nicholai wrote:
MQ has shown that the cost of renewables will continue to escalate with the increasing cost of oil.
I'd like to have some input on the long term.
We tend to focus on the United States on this forum but I'd like to shift this question to China, India, Indonesia etc.
Will nations dive for debt to increase the production of renewables or simply ride the economic slope of $250 oil?
Gazprom has predicted $250 a barrel for 2009. I don't even know what to say about that scenario. Growth would be a word for the history books in that case.
Thoughts?
How much have costs from oil price hikes influenced the costs of renewables? It seems that they may compete favorably with even nukes given their lower capital costs in the case of wind. For instance last year there was ~16.5kWh/year worth of wind power installed at a cost of $9 billion. Otoh, similar power from a couple AP1000s would cost ~$14 billion. So, while wind power has increased over the past three years by ~75%, it's still by a long shot the cheapest game in town for up to ~30% of the grid. _________________
Joined: May 26, 2008 Posts: 884 Location: Chicago, IL
Posted: Fri Jul 25, 2008 4:29 pm Post subject: Re: Tackling the Cornucopians
yesplease wrote:
...adding affordable EVs to the grid would only require a few percent increase in generating capacity, a few percent reduction in consumption, and/or both.
What is the electric consumption in kwh for the vehicle you have in mind?
Posted: Fri Jul 25, 2008 4:50 pm Post subject: Re: Tackling the Cornucopians
The only one the average American could afford with ~80-100 miles of range per charge, so it would have to be something that used ~50-200Wh/mile, with ~100Wh/mile being the average. Granted, we could increase vehicle size by a factor of ~three and decrease range by the same amount if we're barely going to meet the ~30 miles/day average, but I think that'd be cutting it too close. Otoh, we could increase pack size as well, but at an additional ~$1000/kWh that would be very pricey as well. Given the choice between an aerodynamic vehicle that costs ~$25-30k and goes ~100 miles/charge and a small electric crossover that costs ~$70-80k with the same range I think people will go with the smaller more efficient EVs for most use, 1-2 people/minimal cargo, and keep whatever other vehicles they have for other uses. Operating costs are also much lower, and post peak higher oil prices will only exacerbate this difference. _________________
Posted: Fri Jul 25, 2008 11:44 pm Post subject: Re: Tackling the Cornucopians
Serial_Worrier wrote:
I just realized that all the talk about EVs is just more cornucopian blather. All the fossil fuels used for electricity generation are in peak except for coal which is way too polluting to burn more.
It wouldn't actually take that much more electricity. Much of the electricity capacity is under-utilized in non-peak times, like between midnight and 6am, when most people are asleep (and co-incidentally the ideal time to recharge an EV). Coal-fired generators don't shut down during periods of low electricity demand, they don't work like that. There is just less load on the grid afaik, we wouldn't have to burn any more coal for that extra capacity to be taken advantage of.
If we need more, solar, wind, nuclear and yes even that dirty coal can be used to expand the grid. Far more efficient to produce the energy for personal transport on a grand scale than for everyone to have their very own internal combustion engine (as well as all the trucks delivering fuel all over the world).
Concepts like the Chevy Volt are the solution IMO. 40mile range, if your daily commute is within that you never use a drop of gas. If you need to go further, the 1L turbo generator kicks in and starts recharging the batteries. Park it in the sun so the solar panels on the roof will charge it some during the day. Fully charge it up at night when the lights are out and most ppl are asleep.
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ree rah rip ram. sunofabitch godamn. hidey didey christ almighty. rah rah crap 
