| View previous topic :: View next topic |
| Author |
Message |
jdumars Heavy Crude


Joined: Apr 02, 2005 Posts: 437 Location: Nashville, TN
|
Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 11:59 am Post subject: WTH is going on with the markets right now? |
|
|
Everyone is acting like mystically everything that was wrong has suddenly been resolved. Oil dropping, Dow up, financial stocks recovering.
What is going on? What has fundamentally changed? Dante? Mr. Bill? paging all experts... _________________ Dismantle globally, renew locally! |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
Tyler_JC Moderator


Joined: Sep 25, 2004 Posts: 4423 Location: Boston, MA
|
Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 12:05 pm Post subject: Re: WTH is going on with the markets right now? |
|
|
People were expecting earnings to be horrible this quarter. Really, really horrible.
As it turns out they are merely awful.
They are beating expectations (who cares if those expectations were of economic collapse?)
When the Markets realize that the economy is NOT recovering quickly, I expect to see the Dow fall below 10,000. Maybe even by the end of the year.
We aren't out of the woods yet, this is merely a dead cat bounce.
Don't forget that $150 billion in economic stimulus checks have allowed consumers to spend more than they earn in the past quarter. All of that money is gone.
Q3 is going to scary. _________________ "www.peakoil.com is the Myspace of the Apocalypse." |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
JJ Heavy Crude


Joined: Aug 07, 2007 Posts: 297
|
Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 12:06 pm Post subject: Re: WTH is going on with the markets right now? |
|
|
| ditto...they were ridiculing me at work yesterday...stock markets up, oils down, blah blah... hows that nostradamus... |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
joeltrout Light Sweet Crude


Joined: Sep 19, 2007 Posts: 1091 Location: Land of the Tongva tribe
|
Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 12:08 pm Post subject: Re: WTH is going on with the markets right now? |
|
|
Don't let daily, weekly, or even monthly swings in the stock market get you. They trade on news.
This time the news was bad but not as bad as everyone expected therefore it was good.
joeltrout _________________ ENERGY is the basis of our industrial civilization and sustains our standard of living. It is the foundation stone of our national wealth. A nation starved of energy.....will be a nation of starving people. |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
jdumars Heavy Crude


Joined: Apr 02, 2005 Posts: 437 Location: Nashville, TN
|
Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 12:11 pm Post subject: Re: WTH is going on with the markets right now? |
|
|
| JJ wrote: | | ditto...they were ridiculing me at work yesterday...stock markets up, oils down, blah blah... hows that nostradamus... |
Yeah, I am losing some street cred on this too.
Something Simmons said recently regarding oil price floor has been sticking with me. His idea was, every time there's a new record, that becomes the "floor price" -- so people aren't foolishly waiting for it to go back to $40/barrel and not investing in new infrastructure.
So, these retracements are EXTREMELY damaging even if they are only short lived. People will use this is as an example of why it's a "bubble" and not fundamentals. Never mind that it's only going back to the $120 range and not $80. _________________ Dismantle globally, renew locally! |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
Tyler_JC Moderator


Joined: Sep 25, 2004 Posts: 4423 Location: Boston, MA
|
Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 12:12 pm Post subject: Re: WTH is going on with the markets right now? |
|
|
Stocks are up today on a mix of cheaper oil, reasonable earnings numbers, and a semi-decent housing starts figure.
Housing starts were good this month (up 11.6% from last month) but we're 26.9% below last June's level.
Housing Starts #
But the gold market wasn't fooled.
Gold is up another $15 today. We're up more than $100 in the past month alone.  _________________ "www.peakoil.com is the Myspace of the Apocalypse." |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
eastbay Moderator


Joined: Dec 18, 2004 Posts: 4134 Location: One Mile From the Columbia River
|
Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 12:13 pm Post subject: Re: WTH is going on with the markets right now? |
|
|
And do not join up with yea brethren of little faith. Oil is heading upward for all the reasons. It just likes to return now and then to pay brief social visits with old prices along the way.
Nothing can stop the march upward other than a catastrophic economic calamity which isn't scheduled to arrive until later. _________________ Everything is Impermanent. Shakyamuni Buddha |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
Peepers Heavy Crude


Joined: Jan 01, 2005 Posts: 209
|
Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 12:13 pm Post subject: Re: WTH is going on with the markets right now? |
|
|
| I realize America hasn't been around for a long time, but to judge the future of the republic and the global economy on several days' worth of economic news? What in the world is the attention span of these people? Geez, my cat has a longer attention span.... |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
HEADER_RACK Heavy Crude


Joined: Feb 15, 2007 Posts: 435
|
Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 12:17 pm Post subject: Re: WTH is going on with the markets right now? |
|
|
DENIAL _________________ There will come a day when we would have wished to do a little evil for a greater good. |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
NTBKtrader Intermediate Crude


Joined: Oct 19, 2004 Posts: 591
|
Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 12:18 pm Post subject: Re: WTH is going on with the markets right now? |
|
|
| the sec going after short sellers in financials has also had a large impact i think...Short Sellers |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
heroineworshipper Intermediate Crude


Joined: Jul 14, 2006 Posts: 556 Location: Calif*
|
Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 12:19 pm Post subject: Re: WTH is going on with the markets right now? |
|
|
It's the dot bank boom. Banks are the next big thing. You gotta get in because it's only a matter of time before banks turn a profit and once they start making money, there's going to be a Google bank. _________________ People first, then things, then dollars.
There will be enslavement & cannibalism. |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
Starvid Fission


Joined: Feb 20, 2005 Posts: 2685 Location: Uppsala, Sweden
|
Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 12:28 pm Post subject: Re: WTH is going on with the markets right now? |
|
|
So when do you think the DOW hits 4000? _________________ Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis. |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
pstarr Expert


Joined: Sep 27, 2004 Posts: 7086 Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain
|
Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 12:32 pm Post subject: Re: WTH is going on with the markets right now? |
|
|
| heroineworshipper wrote: | | It's the dot bank boom. Banks are the next big thing. You gotta get in because it's only a matter of time before banks turn a profit and once they start making money, there's going to be a Google bank. | Will there be Google money? Will that be better than 'Ebay Notes?" _________________
ree rah rip ram. sunofabitch godamn. hidey didey christ almighty. rah rah crap  |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
emersonbiggins Moderator


Joined: Jul 10, 2005 Posts: 4927 Location: Dallas
|
Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 12:34 pm Post subject: Re: WTH is going on with the markets right now? |
|
|
| Tyler_JC wrote: | Stocks are up today on a mix of cheaper oil, reasonable earnings numbers, and a semi-decent housing starts figure.
Housing starts were good this month (up 11.6% from last month) but we're 26.9% below last June's level.
Housing Starts #
|
Read that this article a little more closely.
A change in zoning practices in NYC is what prompted the increase, all of which was multi-family.
Single-family housing starts were still down 4% M/M (and, of course, Y/Y). _________________ "It's called the American Dream because you'd have to be asleep to believe it."
George Carlin
Last edited by emersonbiggins on Thu Jul 17, 2008 12:37 pm; edited 1 time in total |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
HEADER_RACK Heavy Crude


Joined: Feb 15, 2007 Posts: 435
|
Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 12:36 pm Post subject: Re: WTH is going on with the markets right now? |
|
|
| Quote: | | After an amazing five-year run when the world saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) increase in value fivefold, prices peaked at 381.17 on September 3, 1929. The market then fell sharply for a month, losing 17% of its value on the initial leg down. Prices then recovered more than half of the losses over the next week, only to turn back down immediately afterwards. The decline then accelerated into the so-called "Black Thursday", October 24, 1929. |
Wiki
Intresting _________________ There will come a day when we would have wished to do a little evil for a greater good. |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
|