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UncoveringTruths
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Nov 04, 2004
Posts: 902
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 Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 12:37 pm Post subject: Re: WTH is going on with the markets right now? |
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Is this the rinse and repeat scenario?
Are we rinsing off all the bad data trying to make a comeback in the markets only to be beaten back down later by higher energy prices?
IMO we will have to use more energy to drive the economy back up and when that comes to a realization then it will be two steps back.
Rinse and Repeat...
I'm glad we have some optimists out there. It gives us some time.
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It's a cold cold world when a man has to pawn his shoes. |
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Cashmere
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Mar 27, 2008
Posts: 1971
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| Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 12:54 pm Post subject: Re: WTH is going on with the markets right now? |
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| emersonbiggins wrote: | | Tyler_JC wrote: | Stocks are up today on a mix of cheaper oil, reasonable earnings numbers, and a semi-decent housing starts figure.
Housing starts were good this month (up 11.6% from last month) but we're 26.9% below last June's level.
Housing Starts #
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Read that this article a little more closely.
A change in zoning practices in NYC is what prompted the increase, all of which was multi-family.
Single-family housing starts were still down 4% M/M (and, of course, Y/Y). |
Good pick up EB - I had come across that as well, but I wasn't sure iif the cited numbers were from NY or all of the U.S..
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Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group. |
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JJ
Heavy Crude
Joined: Aug 07, 2007
Posts: 436
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| Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 1:03 pm Post subject: Re: WTH is going on with the markets right now? |
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| UncoveringTruths wrote: | Is this the rinse and repeat scenario?
Are we rinsing off all the bad data trying to make a comeback in the markets only to be beaten back down later by higher energy prices?
IMO we will have to use more energy to drive the economy back up and when that comes to a realization then it will be two steps back.
Rinse and Repeat...
I'm glad we have some optimists out there. It gives us some time. |
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smallpoxgirl
Moderator
Joined: Nov 08, 2004
Posts: 6474
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| Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 1:04 pm Post subject: Re: WTH is going on with the markets right now? |
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My take, oil prices finally got high enough that demand destruction happened and price is correcting down to a more sustainable slope. Actually it happened to all the fossil fuels. Natural gas and coal are way down too.
The airlines and others have predictably got out their kazoos and are having a little party about the busting of the energy bubble. Somewhere between a week and maybe a month from now, energy commodities will finish their correction and head back up. All the partiers will turn back into Eeyores.
It's pretty amazing to watch isn't it? Yesterday American Airlines announced $1 billion in losses. On that news their stock is up 50% in two days.
| Tyler_JC wrote: | But the gold market wasn't fooled.
Gold is up another $15 today. |
Not anymore. Down $5 at this point. Faked me out.  Hopefully it'll stop at $955 and reverse tommorrow.
_________________
"We were standing on the edges
Of a thousand burning bridges
Sifting through the ashes every day
What we thought would never end
Now is nothing more than a memory
The way things were before
I lost my way" - OCMS |
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emeraldg40
Heavy Crude
Joined: May 24, 2008
Posts: 199
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| Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 1:32 pm Post subject: Re: WTH is going on with the markets right now? |
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| smallpoxgirl wrote: | My take, oil prices finally got high enough that demand destruction happened and price is correcting down to a more sustainable slope. Actually it happened to all the fossil fuels. Natural gas and coal are way down too.
The airlines and others have predictably got out their kazoos and are having a little party about the busting of the energy bubble. Somewhere between a week and maybe a month from now, energy commodities will finish their correction and head back up. All the partiers will turn back into Eeyores.
It's pretty amazing to watch isn't it? Yesterday American Airlines announced $1 billion in losses. On that news their stock is up 50% in two days.
Wondering if AA will take GMs lead and slash retiree health.
| Tyler_JC wrote: | But the gold market wasn't fooled.
Gold is up another $15 today. |
Not anymore. Down $5 at this point. Faked me out. Hopefully it'll stop at $955 and reverse tommorrow. |
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Jack
Dark Lord
Joined: Aug 11, 2004
Posts: 5123
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| Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 1:36 pm Post subject: Re: WTH is going on with the markets right now? |
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| smallpoxgirl wrote: | | My take, oil prices finally got high enough that demand destruction happened and price is correcting down to a more sustainable slope. |
Exactly. Take a look at the Baltic Dry Index. It suggests demand destruction.
LINK
Three day's action does not a trend make.
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Dieoff. Fun to watch. Better with hot buttered popcorn!  |
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energycity
Heavy Crude
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Joined: Apr 22, 2008
Posts: 126
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| Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 1:48 pm Post subject: Re: WTH is going on with the markets right now? |
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| jdumars wrote: | | What is going on? What has fundamentally changed? |
There was some relatively upbeat news from the IMF.
| Quote: | The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has raised its global economic forecast after the impact of a credit crunch was not as severe as had been first feared.
2008 Growth forecast (IMF)
Global economy to grow 4.1%
US to grow 1.3%
Japan to grow 1.5%
UK to grow by 1.8%
China to grow 9.7%
Source: IMF
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LINK to BBC news story |
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smallpoxgirl
Moderator
Joined: Nov 08, 2004
Posts: 6474
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| Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 1:49 pm Post subject: Re: WTH is going on with the markets right now? |
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| Jack wrote: | | Three day's action does not a trend make. |
I wouldn't write off this downturn that easily. This thing's still got some momentum behind it. Clearly it is a correction in a long term bull market and not a reversal. We're not going back to $60/barrel, but we could touch briefly back at $110 or so.
Natural gas started a similar correction two weeks ago. It's down 30% so far, and looks like it will bottom out on it's 200 day moving average in a few days. For crude the 200 day moving average is at 104 today.
_________________
"We were standing on the edges
Of a thousand burning bridges
Sifting through the ashes every day
What we thought would never end
Now is nothing more than a memory
The way things were before
I lost my way" - OCMS |
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FoxV
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Mar 02, 2005
Posts: 1337
Location: Canada
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| Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 1:51 pm Post subject: Re: WTH is going on with the markets right now? |
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| jdumars wrote: | | JJ wrote: | | ditto...they were ridiculing me at work yesterday...stock markets up, oils down, blah blah... hows that nostradamus... |
Yeah, I am losing some street cred on this too. |
Just remind them that the Nasdaq still owes them 2000pts from the last time they said it would never go down. 
That should shut them up pretty quick (S&P still owes them 200pts as well)
as for housing starts, I always get a good laugh at the housing starts numbers, especially when they go up
Homebuilder Confidence in U.S. Reached Record Low in July
| Quote: | | Builders may have to further limit new projects as declining home sales have kept inventories elevated. The supply of homes on the market in May increased to 10.9 months, the government said June 25. New-home sales fell 2.5 percent that month. |
Just because a builder started a new house doesn't mean he sold it. Hell, these days it doesn't even mean he'll complete it
Any dip in commodities is a time to buy
any rise in stocks is a time to sell |
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Twilight
Expert
Joined: Mar 02, 2007
Posts: 3076
Location: UK
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| Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 1:58 pm Post subject: Re: WTH is going on with the markets right now? |
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If they insist on asking, draw them a picture. Looks really nice when you step back, doesn't it? I might buy in three years' time once it is safely below 4,000. We'll see. At that point we might be blowing a green bubble we can ride.
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Volatility. When life isn't exciting enough. |
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Jack
Dark Lord
Joined: Aug 11, 2004
Posts: 5123
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| Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 2:17 pm Post subject: Re: WTH is going on with the markets right now? |
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| smallpoxgirl wrote: | | Jack wrote: | | Three day's action does not a trend make. |
I wouldn't write off this downturn that easily. This thing's still got some momentum behind it. Clearly it is a correction in a long term bull market and not a reversal. We're not going back to $60/barrel, but we could touch briefly back at $110 or so.
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True. And point and figure includes a count down to $120.
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Dieoff. Fun to watch. Better with hot buttered popcorn! |
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smallpoxgirl
Moderator
Joined: Nov 08, 2004
Posts: 6474
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| Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 2:20 pm Post subject: Re: WTH is going on with the markets right now? |
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| Jack wrote: | | True. And point and figure includes a count down to $120. |
Could you elaborate on that?
_________________
"We were standing on the edges
Of a thousand burning bridges
Sifting through the ashes every day
What we thought would never end
Now is nothing more than a memory
The way things were before
I lost my way" - OCMS |
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Jack
Dark Lord
Joined: Aug 11, 2004
Posts: 5123
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| Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 2:37 pm Post subject: Re: WTH is going on with the markets right now? |
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| smallpoxgirl wrote: | | Jack wrote: | | True. And point and figure includes a count down to $120. |
Could you elaborate on that? |
Point and figure charts deal with price action only, and do not incorporate any factor of time. The price moves up, and one fills in little X's. If the price was down more than four increments, in a reversal of trend takes place. Subject to a variety of rules, including trendlines, it is possible to come up with an entirely mechanical prediction of upside or downside action. One should not, of course, bet the mortgage on such mechanical approaches.
In addition, I find it useful to look at weekly basis charts with the moving averages modified to cover 10 weeks and 40 weeks respectively; this is equivalent to the 50 and 200 day moving averages were familiar with on daily charts.
I find stockcharts.com to be a most useful site.
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Dieoff. Fun to watch. Better with hot buttered popcorn! |
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heroineworshipper
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Jul 14, 2006
Posts: 743
Location: Calif*
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| Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 2:51 pm Post subject: Re: WTH is going on with the markets right now? |
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If a 53% drop in earnings make stocks go up 300 points, imagine what a 100% drop in earnings can do.
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People first, then things, then dollars.
There will be enslavement, cannibalism, & zombie invasions. |
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drgoodword
Heavy Crude
Joined: Feb 21, 2006
Posts: 278
Location: Toronto
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| Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 3:01 pm Post subject: Re: WTH is going on with the markets right now? |
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Typical bear market volatility.
Oil is in uncharted territory, so I'd expect short-term volatility and sensitivity.
Tomorrow the dow will drop on range profit-taking, all other things remaining relatively the same. |
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