Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Currently, the most serious situations appear to be in Pakistan and Bangladesh. Both are nations with populations in excess of 150 million people that are ensnared in devastating power shortages that have destroyed their export industries. Both are facing water and agricultural problems that threaten their food supplies. Liquid fuels are running short and reductions in exports threaten their ability to import oil and natural gas. It was recently revealed that the Saudis already are forgiving $6 billion of Pakistan's $12 billion annual oil import bill.
On top of this, Pakistan has nuclear weapons and its strategic location is vital to the course of the insurgency in Afghanistan. Worsening blackouts, the liquid fuels shortage and probably the food situation are likely to lead to serious political instability before the year is out.
The next important pair of countries in terms of their impact on western economies is China and India, and although their situations are nowhere near as serious as the problems in Pakistan and Bangladesh, both are beginning to suffer from electricity shortages which will impact economic growth. China, which now has a shortfall of around four percent of its normal electricity production, is compensating by cutting back on production of aluminum and zinc which consume prodigious quantities of electric power. The recent earthquake has given Beijing pause in its ambitious plans to expand hydro and nuclear power production. If China cannot increase coal production rapidly enough to keep up electricity generation for its rapidly expanding economy, it is likely to increase imports of coal and oil keeping pressure on world prices.
"The market is well supplied." Olduvai and Hubbert appear to be the nose and tail of the one dog. _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
C'mon man, who're you gonna believe?
Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 4:04 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
TheDude quoted:
Quote:
If China cannot increase coal production rapidly enough to keep up electricity generation for its rapidly expanding economy, it is likely to increase imports of coal and oil keeping pressure on world prices.
Pressure on prices will continue until someone blows up. China with a banking system that sports 40% non-performing loans, and a huge dependence on foreign capital inflows as the developed world’s economies contract is a prime candidate. Pressure will then be relieved for a while.
The fall of Available Energy will soon catch up and we will then be off to the races again. This will happen all the way to the bottom unless someone in high places begin to understand what is happening.
I’m not going to hold my breath waiting for that to happen!
I have decided not to overthink this. I gotta say that last week's import number for crude oil was too high, this week will be more like the previous month, especially in light of various reports of bad weather in the gulf, and reduced shipments form Nigeria that DP has told us about.
I also have to say that there is no compelling reason for the refinery utilizationto be higher than it was last week.
So if you then back-work the refinery inputs, figure about 9.7 on crude oil, and the same domestic production that we always have (thunderhorse still down) you will have a pretty substantial inventory drop. The market reaction will of course be really interesting.
The other thing we are wondering about is unleaded demand. We have been running something like .5 mbpd below last year's level, but last year, during July, demand was really variable, I have to think it will be a little higher than last week, but lower than last year's July average.
Since distillates is where the refiners are making money right now, you also have to figure maximum distillate production.
So the end result: a big draw in crude oil, about even in unleaded, and a buildup in distillates until the prices drop.
Joined: Dec 18, 2004 Posts: 4994 Location: One Mile From the Columbia River
Posted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 9:23 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Reuters is reporting that the experts are predicting the weekly report will reveal a 700,000 bbl drop when released at 1035 hrs Wednesday. We shall see who's correct!
U.S. Gulf of Mexico producers shut 5 percent of oil and natural gas production by Tuesday but those shutdowns were expected to be short-lived.
Market attention was also on U.S. data due later on Wednesday, which are expected to show crude stocks falling by 700,000 barrels, according to a Reuters poll of analysts.
Refinery utilization was little changed at around 89.5 percent of capacity but inputs of feedstock, or crude runs, likely dropped, some of the polled analysts said. _________________ Got Dharma?
Posted: Wed Jul 23, 2008 12:06 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
A big drop in crude?
Do you guys still watch tanker traffic?
I still see them shipping a lot of oil. I would guess some of that oil must be coming to US.
Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 1658 Location: Springsteen Country (NJ)
Posted: Wed Jul 23, 2008 8:39 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Quote:
Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending July 18, 2008
U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 15.1 million barrels per day during the
week ending July 18, down 355 thousand barrels per day from the previous week's
average. Refineries operated at 87.1 percent of their operable capacity last
week. Gasoline production rose last week, averaging 9.2 million barrels per day.
Distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging 4.6 million barrels
per day.
U.S. crude oil imports averaged 9.8 million barrels per day last week, down 985
thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude
oil imports have averaged nearly 10.1 million barrels per day, 144 thousand
barrels per day above the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline
imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last
week averaged 1.1 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports averaged 102
thousand barrels per day last week.
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic
Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 1.6 million barrels from the previous week. At
295.3 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are in the lower half of the
average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories increased
by 2.9 million barrels last week, and are just above the upper boundary of the
average range. Both finished gasoline inventories and gasoline blending
components inventories increased last week. Distillate fuel inventories
increased by 2.4 million barrels, and are in the upper half of the average range
for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories increased by 0.3 million
barrels last week but remain below the lower limit of the average range. Total
commercial petroleum inventories increased by 1.9 million barrels last week,and
are in the lower half of the average range for this time of year.
Total products supplied over the last four-week period has averaged nearly 20.3
million barrels per day, down by 2.1 percent compared to the similar period last
year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline demand has averaged 9.3 million
barrels per day, down by 2.4 percent from the same period last year. Distillate
fuel demand has averaged about 4.2 million barrels per day over the last four
weeks, up by 3.6 percent from the same period last year. Jet fuel demand is 2.5
percent lower over the last four weeks compared to the same four-week period
last year.
_________________ Joe P. United Political Debate
"Only when the last tree is cut; only when the last river is polluted; only when the last fish is caught; only then will they realize that you cannot eat money." - Cree Indian Proverb
Posted: Wed Jul 23, 2008 9:49 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Crude oil down on the EIA report. Traders are apparently now trading on total inventory, not crude inventory. With crude down 13 of the last 14 weeks (?) MOI can not be very far away. One hurricane, or revolution and the pumps would soon run dry. US exports of crude are also down 24.1% YOY, or about 1 mb/week. Apparently the rest of the world can’t afford $130 oil (not that we can). As a metric, this is pretty convincing evidence that we are in a global slow down.
Joined: Apr 06, 2006 Posts: 3626 Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
Posted: Wed Jul 23, 2008 1:11 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
shortonoil wrote:
Crude oil down on the EIA report. Traders are apparently now trading on total inventory, not crude inventory. With crude down 13 of the last 14 weeks (?) MOI can not be very far away. One hurricane, or revolution and the pumps would soon run dry. US exports of crude are also down 24.1% YOY, or about 1 mb/week. Apparently the rest of the world can’t afford $130 oil (not that we can). As a metric, this is pretty convincing evidence that we are in a global slow down.
Oh, I'm not so sure inventories will fall through the floor this year. We've started at lower levels in the past decade, the stocks floundered around a lot and even passed below 270 mb in early 2004 but rebounded in a big way. The situation we're in now looks akin to 2002, where the drop went down to about 272 and then built back up. Demand destruction and the odd new project is keeping things nice and flat for now. See my crude inventory history graph:
_________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
C'mon man, who're you gonna believe?
Posted: Wed Jul 23, 2008 3:49 pm Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Code:
Unleaded 17-Jul
Beginning Inv 214.2
Imports 7.7 1.1
Production 64.4 9.2
Available 286.3
Ending Inv 217.1
Balance 72.1
Balance/day 10.3
Prod Supplied 9.3
Actual Change 2.9
Deviation from Forecast 3.25
Distillates 17-Jul
Beginning Inv 125.7
Imports 0.714 0.102
Production 32.2 4.6
Available 158.614
Ending Inv 128.1
Balance 30.514
Balance/day 4.359142857
Prod Supplied 4.2
Actual Change 2.4
Deviation from Forecast -0.8
Crude Oil 17-Jul
Beginning Inv 296.9
Production 35.679 5.097
Imports 68.6 9.8
Total Available 401.179
Provided to Ref 105.7 15.1 87.1
Ending Inventory 295.3
Actual Change -1.6
Deviation from Forecast 2.6
I think this report was all about the refinery production. I will have to go back through the records, but I believe that running the refineries at such a low level at this time of year is practically unprecedented. At only 15.1 mbpd refinery inputs, even the effects of the lower imports (which we were pretty close on) were offset as far as the inventory was concerned.
The other unusual thing in this is that the ratio of unleaded to distillates changed this week in favor of the unleaded (we had been seeing higher distillate production and lower unleaded). The little demand estimate for unleaded we did turned out to be pretty close.
So, as indicated above, the steady drip drip drip of our crude oil inventory continues, unleaded demand is down about .5 mbpd/about 4.5% versus a normal year, and at this point, we are within a month of the end of the summer driving season, with stable inventories of the products.
Posted: Thu Jul 24, 2008 7:34 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Here is your graph. As far back as the records go, 1992, the 87% was the lowest refinery utilization on record for July.
There is also no compelling reason to run them any harder next week either. While we are at it, here is the demand situation:
Past couple of weeks, basically .5 mbpd lower than last year, almost 5%. This data is the "demand balance" that we calculate, not to be confused with "products supplied" which are only down 1% or so.
This is finally starting to be consistent with the Mastercard data, that shows about a 5% decline in unleaded purchases every week.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Thu Jul 24, 2008 7:56 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
The Houston Ship Channel, near home to many refiners, was closed yesterday. I assume it will reopen today, but there has been no word yet.
Quote:
Mexico's Pemex Reports No Damage From Hurricane Dolly
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
July 24, 2008 9:35 a.m.
MEXICO CITY (Dow Jones)--Mexican state oil firm Petroleos Mexicanos hasn't found any signs of damage after Hurricane Dolly passed through the company's northern operations on Wednesday.
The company said in a statement that staff flew over oil and natural gas installations offshore and on land on Wednesday. Pemex implemented a hurricane contingency plan earlier this week, evacuating staff from an offshore platform and securing equipment to prevent wind damage.
Posted: Thu Jul 24, 2008 9:56 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
Quote:
HOUSTON, July 24 (Reuters) - Ports serving two out of three Texas refining centers remained shut on Thursday morning due to rough seas from Tropical Storm Dolly.
Neither the U.S. Coast Guard nor ship pilots could estimate when the high winds might calm enough for shipping to resume through the Houston or Corpus Christi ship channels.
In Houston, where ship pilots stopped steering vessels to the busiest U.S. petrochemical port on Wednesday morning, at least 24 ships were waiting to enter the ship channel, the Coast Guard said.
Posted: Thu Jul 24, 2008 10:41 am Post subject: Re: Weekly US Petroleum and NG Supply Reports (Current)
The cutoff for the WPSR weekly report is Friday, so if this backlog persists for one more day, it will show up on the report next week, and then a spike the following week when they catch back up.
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