Joined: Jun 18, 2006 Posts: 56 Location: Dallas, Texas
Posted: Thu Jul 10, 2008 8:12 pm Post subject: Re: Please prove me wrong!
I was curious about the average rig count running world-wide so i built a page utilizing the Baker-Hughes rig count data to evaluate rig counts - we are at a 23 year high at present - I can tell you this, we are drilling faster than ever right now - cheer up. Have a look and make comments at:
http://news.energydigger.com/rig-counts/
Joined: Mar 26, 2005 Posts: 3687 Location: over here
Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2008 5:35 am Post subject: Re: Please prove me wrong!
rigs don't equal oil, and will only mean less so in the future. You can drill all you want in old fields, but they will only produce marinal wells, which will die out before you can say "increased production", as well as causing existing wells to produce less and die out faster. _________________ "The best thing about the future is that it comes only one day at a time."
Joined: Jun 18, 2006 Posts: 56 Location: Dallas, Texas
Posted: Fri Jul 11, 2008 8:12 am Post subject: Re: Please prove me wrong!
your absolutely incorrect - we are drilling faster and more efficiently than ever - producing ever larger quantities - the only issue is that it is more expensive - the wells I was drilling 10 years or even 20 years ago cost between $750k and $1.5m... the last 6 wells I completed in Wyoming cost over $4m and those are land wells - the drilling projects I have completed offshore, well, you don't want to even know that my friend...
Joined: Jun 18, 2006 Posts: 56 Location: Dallas, Texas
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 8:29 pm Post subject: Re: Please prove me wrong!
wrong, do your research - we are actually increasing output - what you mean to say is supply demand differentials are extending at a faster rate than increased output....
Joined: Apr 12, 2007 Posts: 1162 Location: Central NC
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 8:35 pm Post subject: Re: Please prove me wrong!
EnergyDigger wrote:
wrong, do your research - we are actually increasing output - what you mean to say is supply demand differentials are extending at a faster rate than increased output....
Would it be to much to ask for a link showing the production increase? _________________ "The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences…"
Sir Winston Churchill
Joined: Jun 30, 2005 Posts: 668 Location: northern California
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 8:42 pm Post subject: Re: Please prove me wrong!
Homesteader wrote:
EnergyDigger wrote:
wrong, do your research - we are actually increasing output - what you mean to say is supply demand differentials are extending at a faster rate than increased output....
Would it be to much to ask for a link showing the production increase?
Please show us a link that shows just the stuff that gets pumped out of holes in the ground, without the "all-liquids" mumbo jumbo, as that is double counting (considering that it takes a barrel of oil to produce a barrel of ethanol, and all -liquids graphs show both of those barrels). In other words,show us the C&C graph: crude + condensates. _________________ "I believe that a wise Vermonter lives more by lack of expense rather than from income."--some Dartmouth professor from across the river
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 8:42 pm Post subject: Re: Please prove me wrong!
EnergyDigger wrote:
wrong, do your research - we are actually increasing output
Really? That's not what EIA says.
World Oil Production
2005: 84,631 kbpd
2006: 84,597 kbpd
2007: 84,601 kbpd
source
Don't look like an increase to me. _________________ "I was born in a deep forest
I wish I could live here all my life
I am made from stones and roots
My home, these woods and roads
All my life I loved this sound
Of the woods all around
Eagles fly where the winds blow free" -Korpiklaani
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 9:10 pm Post subject: Re: Please prove me wrong!
BigTex wrote:
My kids are 7, 4 and 9 months old.
I have talked to the 9 month old about it a little. I can't tell how much of it he understands, though.
The other two are busy being kids. I'm just going to let that process unfold for now. Neither of them seem close to having kids of their own at this point.
At some point, I will begin paramilitary training programs for all three. Part of that training will probably include some classroom time with Catton's overshoot and die-off analysis.
Thanks, Tex. Good points. Kids just live, they don't freak out about anything. They're great examples.
At one time, I was sobbing over the mess my little one will be in, but I figured she doesn't understand and it can't be good for her to see Mom fall apart. She'll do just fine. We should all follow their lead.
Joined: Jun 18, 2006 Posts: 56 Location: Dallas, Texas
Posted: Wed Jul 16, 2008 9:53 pm Post subject: Re: Please prove me wrong!
EIA are weak numbers - what I am seeing is actual output increase in the largest fields - the wells in the largest fields are being increased in exponential fashion - sorry, I cannot provide my data to you as it is confidential - I will try to find some better publishable data for you in a couple of weeks - i am presently very busy drilling a well in Wyoming right now - one thing i am doing in my spare time is trying to generate a good graph of oil/gas production with rig counts - look at the page on energydigger.com and click on the link to rig counts at the right hand side of the page to see the beginnings of the data build on this project....
Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 4:57 pm Post subject: Re: Please prove me wrong!
BigTex wrote:
mos6507 wrote:
BigTex wrote:
Too many people, not enough earth.
I may have asked you this question before, but have you talked to your kids about what they plan to do in the future regarding having kids of their own, assuming they make it?
Do you feel that TS will HTF severely enough that such a talk may not even be necessary?
My kids are 7, 4 and 9 months old.
I have talked to the 9 month old about it a little. I can't tell how much of it he understands, though.
The other two are busy being kids. I'm just going to let that process unfold for now. Neither of them seem close to having kids of their own at this point.
At some point, I will begin paramilitary training programs for all three. Part of that training will probably include some classroom time with Catton's overshoot and die-off analysis.
7 is plenty old enough to start training. biking, woodscraft, survival mindset. camping is the best. build love and appreciation for plants and nature in general. and most importantly mess with their sense of normalcy. By that I mean get them used to "shock" a little at a time. It will make the difference between an asset and a liability.
You will be amazed what a 7 year old is capable of when you get outside the box. My personal experience has been profound. I have seen an eagerness to "do something real" that i never expected. _________________ "The future power is manpower"
Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 5:20 pm Post subject: Re: Please prove me wrong!
EnergyDigger wrote:
EIA are weak numbers - what I am seeing is actual output increase in the largest fields - the wells in the largest fields are being increased in exponential fashion - sorry, I cannot provide my data to you as it is confidential -
Translation:
"I GAZE DEEPLY AT MY CRYSTAL BALLS"
(dig the new sig, btw. this says it all, friend quinny)
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v _________________ "By the time individuals discover that remaining resources will not be adequate for the next generation, the next generation has already been born. " David Price
Joined: Jun 18, 2006 Posts: 56 Location: Dallas, Texas
Posted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 4:00 pm Post subject: Re: Please prove me wrong!
ahhh, well, yes, it is a diresituation, not even beginning to try and paint a different picture - we are in trouble guys - we have picked over the easy fields and frankly we don't have the experience or the rigs anymore to reamp up any harder than we are right now without significant time passing - it takes minimum 10 years to build a base-line drilling engineer - look up a story called "The greying of the oilfield" somewhere, it was a good story and very accurate... i was only addressing hte point that we are actually ramping up energy volumes at some kind of moderate pace, not declining - it is just nowhere near keeping up with the demand levels which are increasing significantly faster - and that is just based on a US outlook - the world outlook is dimmer still... I have a unique perspective within the context of this discussion...
your absolutely incorrect - we are drilling faster and more efficiently than ever - producing ever larger quantities - the only issue is that it is more expensive -
vs.
EnergyDigger wrote:
... i was only addressing hte point that we are actually ramping up energy volumes at some kind of moderate pace, not declining - it is just nowhere near keeping up with the demand levels which are increasing significantly faster -
- what I am seeing is actual output increase in the largest fields - the wells in the largest fields are being increased in exponential fashion -
vs.
EnergyDigger wrote:
- we have picked over the easy fields and frankly we don't have the experience or the rigs anymore to reamp up any harder than we are right now without significant time passing -
_________________ Collapse-prep Intentional Community forming outside of Austin, TX. PM me if interested.
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