Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 11:17 pm Post subject: Re: Speaker Pelosi says no to more offshore oil drilling
[quote="thuja"]
Peleg wrote:
thuja wrote:
However Great Thespian! You are not yet properly factoring in the role of politics and appearances in all of this. The trajectories of the system into the future are not birthed simply by reason but also by apearance and by knowledge both seen and unseen, public and private, admitted and hidden. If a bill giving some right to drill in expanded areas drives speculation out of oil and we end up back at $105 for a few years we have helped ourselves. The bill can still include staunch protections for ANWR. The fact is the oil majors will not make major efforts to find small fields anywhere with oil at $140. So why not let them give us a laundry list of their top 50 places and then use the Sharpee to make sure we keep things in perspective?
Bah- and double Bah!
Allowing OCS and ANWR drilling is simply selling off the last piece of our ass we have left at cutrate Walmart sale prices. That oil will be sold on the market for 3-500$/barrel 10 years hence and we won't even know its vanishing.
You wish to sell off the last remaining oil we have left just for the spectacular hope that speculators will ramp down their enthusiasm for a few years (days?) and prices will diminish 20-30$/barrel. Bah!
This form of shortsightedness is what got us into this mess. Go troll the neocon websites or spend some time educating yourself to what the term Peak Oil means...
'Bah humbug, politics has no bearing on the future.' said Scrooge
'Excuse me Mr. Scrooge but has'nt politics shaped the future of every nation since even before Caesar.' Tiny Tim retorts.
'Bah....I'm of the mind to remove all politicians and replace them with myself,...me,...then maybe I can get some rest.' said Scrooge.
Extreme politics are the same as isolationism. Being in the world and being human means there is a need to compromise and to accept that life is sometimes smoke and mirrors and that is not always bad. The quest for absolute submission to absolute truth is God's business.
I notice you hinted that ANWR was on the menu, clearly it is not and never will be. Some parts of OCS have to be on the menu because we have to start somewhere. Green Cornucopia does not exist, it is not an island just north of Greenland. humans like all other animals deeply affect their environment, the best we can hope is to guide that impact into sustainable envelopes.
Last edited by Peleg on Thu Jul 17, 2008 11:17 pm; edited 1 time in total
Joined: Apr 09, 2007 Posts: 5856 Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).
Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 11:17 pm Post subject: Re: Speaker Pelosi says no to more offshore oil drilling
thuja wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:
hironegro wrote:
what is the issue with OCS drilling?
Nancy Pelosi. our current House speaker, is forbidding any oil drilling in new areas off the coasts so that there can never be another icky poo oil spill.
George Bush, our beloved leader, wants to whore our last resources to be sold on a global market to prop up the illusion that he can do something about Peak Oil.
Nancy may be completely clueless when it comes to what we are facing, but the ... who think drilling ANWR and the OCS are the answer should be taken out back...
You are arguing with your own fantasies. No one, not even your beloved George Bush, has ever said ANWR and the OCS are the answer to peak oil.
Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 11:22 pm Post subject: Re: Speaker Pelosi says no to more offshore oil drilling
TheDude wrote:
We could nationalize the IOCs and mandate that American Oil Stays Here, ala the Dem plan to do same with refineries. Which would be based on the assumption bought and paid for politicians have our best interests in mind har har har.
Bill Hicks wrote:
“I’ll show you politics in America,” he added. “Here it is, right here. ‘I think the puppet on the right shares my beliefs.’ ‘I think the puppet on the left is more to my liking.’ ‘Hey, wait a minute, there’s one guy holding out both puppets!’ ”
Orlov wrote:
One area in which I cannot discern any Collapse Gap is national politics. The ideologies may be different, but the blind adherence to them couldn't be more similar.
It is certainly more fun to watch two Capitalist parties go at each other than just having the one Communist party to vote for. The things they fight over in public are generally symbolic little tokens of social policy, chosen for ease of public posturing. The Communist party offered just one bitter pill. The two Capitalist parties offer a choice of two placebos.
Said the self made man who only needed....
100,000 auto workers to produce his car to get to work
300,000 workers in attendant industries to get him his morning coffee
the governments and militaries of the G8 to ensure there was energy available at all.
Realism is a stiff drink but one this forum desparately needs a case or two off.
Joined: Apr 06, 2006 Posts: 3333 Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 11:28 pm Post subject: Re: Speaker Pelosi says no to more offshore oil drilling
thuja wrote:
Nationalization of oil is about the craziest plan imaginable. We have a 13 million barrel/day shortfall of oil that we make up through importing. If nations saw that we were keeping our oil for ourselves they might just say- "well I think we'll keep ours too." Guess who would be hurting more?
Hey, I don't support these nutty ideas - or make them up.
Like Jeff Brown says, as the price of oil goes up expect an attendant increase in irrational thinking. Especially in an election year. _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
I will not abide another toe.
Joined: Oct 15, 2005 Posts: 1531 Location: Portland, Oregon
Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 11:29 pm Post subject: Re: Speaker Pelosi says no to more offshore oil drilling
[quote="Plantagenet"]
thuja wrote:
You are arguing with your own fantasies. No one, not even your beloved George Bush, has ever said ANWR and the OCS are the answer to peak oil.
Dude- you- like George Bush- think we need to ramp up domestic production as one of the ways of dealing with this little, problem, shall we say. You said it in your first post.
Here's the scoop but I'm sure you know this. Domestic oil is sold on the spot market to the highest bidder. We don't get a deal. We don't get the "Exxon local sale price". That means that we will still pay astronomical prices as one or two million barrels makes nary a ripple on world markets.
I have to applaud you and peleg for displaying your willful ignorance on this issue in line with our fearless leader. Here's a mantra for some bumper stickers you can produce. "Drill Here, Pay More Anyways."
Joined: Oct 15, 2005 Posts: 1531 Location: Portland, Oregon
Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 11:33 pm Post subject: Re: Speaker Pelosi says no to more offshore oil drilling
Peleg wrote:
Realism is a stiff drink but one this forum desparately needs a case or two off.
Realism is the fact that we are short 13 million barrels/day of oil. Realism is the fact that we are about to experience a global shortfall of oil that no amount of domestic drilling can overcome. Realism is that the price of oil will not be reduced by dometsic drilling. We may only be able to marginally reduce the level of global oil price inflation, for a few years.
Realism is not...staring at an incoming tsunami wave and say things like...
Maybe if we stood up here on this little 10 foot hill, things will be okay.
Go study the math and come back when you really truly "get it."
Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 11:46 pm Post subject: Re: Speaker Pelosi says no to more offshore oil drilling
thuja wrote:
Peleg wrote:
Realism is a stiff drink but one this forum desparately needs a case or two off.
Realism is the fact that we are short 13 million barrels/day of oil. Realism is the fact that we are about to experience a global shortfall of oil that no amount of domestic drilling can overcome. Realism is that the price of oil will not be reduced by dometsic drilling. We may only be able to marginally reduce the level of global oil price inflation, for a few years.
Realism is not...staring at an incoming tsunami wave and say things like...
Maybe if we stood up here on this little 10 foot hill, things will be okay.
Go study the math and come back when you really truly "get it."
I think you need to have your mouth washed out with soap you arrogant worm. By your discourse I would not be surprised to find you on the Library computer in between meals at the local homeless shelter.
When you decide to understand that your extreme scenario for peak oil is not even close to the full weight of risk from oil depletion in this timeframe come back and have a conversation with some adults.
Joined: Oct 15, 2005 Posts: 1531 Location: Portland, Oregon
Posted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 12:00 am Post subject: Re: Speaker Pelosi says no to more offshore oil drilling
You;ve posted here- what? Less than two months. Spend some time reading. You call me extreme- spend some time reading roccman or Jack's posts.
I am simply astonished that anyone would post here and say they agree that domestic drilling is part of the solution- as if there were a "solution".
The reality is that we are soon going to be experiencing 1-4% annual drops in global production that will not be remotely slowed by domestic drilling. Take the time to read the lengthy threads that describe what that means and why a paltry 1 or 2 extra million barrels that might or might not be produced will mean next to nothing compared to that reality...
Joined: Oct 23, 2005 Posts: 1791 Location: East of Eden
Posted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 12:06 am Post subject: Re: Speaker Pelosi says no to more offshore oil drilling
Peleg, I'm afraid thuja is right. Oil prices are determined in international markets. And the amount of oil added by ANWR to the world market would be pretty minimal.
If we're going to drill there - and I'm pretty sure it's ultimately inevitable - then we'd best sit on it as long as we can. Drill for it now, when we've barely begun to feel the pain? We blink far too easily. Later, when we're struggling to pay for enough insanely expensive oil to build a new infrastructure, we'll wish we hadn't been so hasty.
Wait for it... Waaaaaiitt.....
_________________ "If a path to the better there be, it begins with a full look at the worst." — Thomas Hardy
Joined: Apr 09, 2007 Posts: 5856 Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).
Posted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 12:07 am Post subject: Re: Speaker Pelosi says no to more offshore oil drilling
thuja wrote:
a paltry 1 or 2 extra million barrels that might or might not be produced will mean next to nothing compared to that reality...
and a paltry windmill means nothing....and a paltry nuclear plant is meaningless....and a paltry solar array is only a second of energy supply....and so on.....blah blah blah....but put them all together and you've got significant amounts of energy and more energy is exactly what is needed in dealing with an energy shortage.
Joined: Apr 09, 2007 Posts: 5856 Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).
Posted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 12:12 am Post subject: Re: Speaker Pelosi says no to more offshore oil drilling
coyote wrote:
Peleg, I'm afraid thuja is right. Oil prices are determined in international markets. And the amount of oil added by ANWR to the world market would be pretty minimal.
If we're going to drill there - and I'm pretty sure it's ultimately inevitable - then we'd best sit on it as long as we can. Drill for it now, when we've barely begun to feel the pain? We blink far too easily. Later, when we're struggling to pay for enough insanely expensive oil to build a new infrastructure, we'll wish we hadn't been so hasty.
Wait for it... Waaaaaiitt.....
We'll wait until Queen Nancy Pelosi says its ok....or until she is deposed and a more rational person becomes speaker of the House.
The problem with waiting for Queen Nancy is that its going to take 10 years to drill and develop even after Queen Nancy gets off her tuffet and lets the process start. It really would be a lot smarter to drill it ASAP and see if there is any oil there at all, to start with. Then, once development starts, capacity could be added as the peak oil shortfalls get worse and worse and the ANWR oil and OCS oil and alternative energy is needed more and more to fill the energy void left by peak oil.
Posted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 12:20 am Post subject: Re: Speaker Pelosi says no to more offshore oil drilling
Peleg wrote:
Would you be surprised someday to see a nation called Colorado living comfortably off of it's oil shale reserves?
I'm mainly talking about the environmental impact, but also what I understand from the basic web queries I’ve done on shale oil is that there are still major issues with producing oil from it.
thuja
wrote:
Any oil discovered at ANWR or the OCS would be sold at the Global spot market rate. The small amount that would be produced ( a couple million barrels/day if we are lucky?) would be a drop compared to what is required and would be eaten up in bidding wars between us, the Chindians and emerging countries. There would be no price drop. At the best, drilling there could marginally slow the tremendous rate of inflation in oil prices.
Joined: Aug 24, 2005 Posts: 327 Location: Costa Geriatrica, Spain
Posted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 12:57 am Post subject: Re: Speaker Pelosi says no to more offshore oil drilling
hironegro wrote:
Peleg wrote:
Would you be surprised someday to see a nation called Colorado living comfortably off of it's oil shale reserves?
I'm mainly talking about the environmental impact, but also what I understand from the basic web queries I’ve done on shale oil is that there are still major issues with producing oil from it.
Major issues is a major understatement. Back in the Carter era the oil co's blew about a billion dollars trying to produce oil from kerogen shale (oil shale is a misnomer. there isnt actually any oil in it, just an organic oil pre-cursor which has to be cooked to produce oil) and then gave up. Whether it can ever be an EROEI positive energy source (other than by grinding and burning directly to produce electricity - very messy) is moot.
As a Brit, the USA's reluctance to fully explore its continental shelf has always struck me as bizarre, given that all sorts of highly destructive onshore activities occur in the USA - such as mountaintop removal coal mining - which would never be sanctioned in the UK.
Looking back over the history of North Sea oil from discovery in the mid 60's to production startup in the mid 70's to the 1999 peak and current decline phase, it strikes me how few relatively minor pollution incidents there have been, and only one major accident - the Piper Alpha disaster. A well regulated offshore oil development need not be a threat to the environment.
North Sea does have one major advantage, though. Unlike the East coast of America, it doesn't regularly get whacked by hurricanes.
Posted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 1:23 am Post subject: Re: Speaker Pelosi says no to more offshore oil drilling
skeptik wrote:
Major issues is a major understatement. Back in the Carter era the oil co's blew about a billion dollars trying to produce oil from kerogen shale (oil shale is a misnomer. there isnt actually any oil in it, just an organic oil pre-cursor which has to be cooked to produce oil) and then gave up. Whether it can ever be an EROEI positive energy source is moot.
As a Brit, the USA's reluctance to fully explore its continental shelf has always struck me as bizarre, given that all sorts of highly destructive onshore activities occur in the USA - such as mountaintop removal coal mining - which would never be sanctioned in the UK.
Looking back over the history of North Sea oil from discovery in the mid 60's to production startup in the mid 70's to the 1999 peak and current decline phase, it strikes me how few relatively minor pollution incidents there have been, and only one major accident - the Piper Alpha disaster. A well regulated offshore oil development need not be a threat to the environment.
North Sea does have one major advantage, though. Unlike the East coast of America, it doesn't regularly get whacked by hurricanes.
Wow thanks for info.
To be fair most people who oppose off-shore drilling also oppose mountain top removal.
Yes I think we need to drill in the OCS. By drilling there the we finally can have proof that oil production is going peak in the next 5-10 years.
Posted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 1:27 am Post subject: Re: Speaker Pelosi says no to more offshore oil drilling
thuja wrote:
You;ve posted here- what? Less than two months. Spend some time reading. You call me extreme- spend some time reading roccman or Jack's posts.
I am simply astonished that anyone would post here and say they agree that domestic drilling is part of the solution- as if there were a "solution".
The reality is that we are soon going to be experiencing 1-4% annual drops in global production that will not be remotely slowed by domestic drilling. Take the time to read the lengthy threads that describe what that means and why a paltry 1 or 2 extra million barrels that might or might not be produced will mean next to nothing compared to that reality...
I agree with everything you are saying (except where you are wrong) and I apologize for losing my temper, if it matters. BTW I have been around here since August of 2005. You must know that alot of the people here have multiple identities. Some of them even play good cop bad cop in various threads. It's too bad that they do not realize how closely they are being watched, the laughs would ring hollow if they did.
Did you see that Roscoe Bartlett and Robert Hirsch recently advocated for drilling? I was shocked too. But then I thought about what they were trying to do. They both fear a liquid fuels shortage. That is game over, not five years from now, not ten, but immediately. You tell people they are rationing fuel in the greatest nation on earth and the damage goes deep. No one I know is saying any of this is a solution to peak oil. We all know that there is no solution, the question is mitigation which comes down to being shrewd to try to minimize the damage. Right now the current danger is an overheated energy market that leaves us no options in dealing with the credit crisis. Within five years it is quite possible that peak oil will have reduced parts of the US to smouldering ruins, that does not mean we can leave off the game now.
Economic and political forces are bigger than all of us, they emerge from us and then we spend our lives foyning and parrying. The Boar's Tooth is the first lesson of politics. They are always trying to cut you below the waist. That alone explains alot of the atmosphere in Washington and why it is so hard to get what so many of us see as reasonable compromise to go anywhere. People in the Beltway first assume you are attacking them in some covert way and then maybe they entertain the possiblity you actually want to cooperate. Why else would a US president claim the 'Art of War' is his favorite book? Public policy has the potential to help but the politics of compromise that comes from being determined by small or large steps to serve the American people is lacking and it is a great evil (IMO.)
Here is link to Hirsch talking about mitigation at ASPO
There is a nice set of videos on the front page. Mitigation is all they are talking about, that simply means we can't stop it but we can change the outcomes somewhat through cooperation and moving forward on some kind of plan now. to get down to nuts and bolts we have to neutralize the caustic politics in Washington, anything that can do that is worth talking seriously about.
BTW I like Jack, he is brilliant and no-nonsense. I'm not sure I want to run into him post peak though. He seems likely to kill and eat me first and then ask why I'm on his property.
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