Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 11:55 pm Post subject: Re: Alaska North Slope may hold 36 bln bbl oil - US DOE
Quote:
Development of these fields should provide production rates of about 900,000 BOPD until about 2015.
About 1 hour of US daily consumption.
21/24= 875,000 barrels. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Joined: Apr 09, 2007 Posts: 6375 Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).
Posted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 11:58 pm Post subject: Re: Alaska North Slope may hold 36 bln bbl oil - US DOE
MonteQuest wrote:
Quote:
Development of these fields should provide production rates of about 900,000 BOPD until about 2015.
About 1 hour of US daily consumption.
21/24= 875,000 barrels.
Pfft!
If you think they are going to take oil from ANWR and distribute it and stage it all across the US so they can throw a switch and use it all at the same time during one hour, then you really don't understand how how the US energy system works.
Posted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 12:05 am Post subject: Re: Alaska North Slope may hold 36 bln bbl oil - US DOE
Plantagenet wrote:
MonteQuest wrote:
Quote:
Development of these fields should provide production rates of about 900,000 BOPD until about 2015.
About 1 hour of US daily consumption.
21/24= 875,000 barrels.
Pfft!
If you think they are going to take oil from ANWR and distribute it and stage it all across the US so they can throw a switch and use it all at the same time during one hour, then you really don't understand how how the US energy system works.
LOL! No, silly, I don't. LOL! What a hoot! _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Joined: Apr 09, 2007 Posts: 6375 Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).
Posted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 12:15 am Post subject: Re: Alaska North Slope may hold 36 bln bbl oil - US DOE
MonteQuest wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:
MonteQuest wrote:
Quote:
Development of these fields should provide production rates of about 900,000 BOPD until about 2015.
About 1 hour of US daily consumption.
21/24= 875,000 barrels.
Pfft!
If you think they are going to take oil from ANWR and distribute it and stage it all across the US so they can throw a switch and use it all at the same time during one hour, then you really don't understand how how the US energy system works.
Posted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 12:45 am Post subject: Re: Alaska North Slope may hold 36 bln bbl oil - US DOE
Plantagenet wrote:
Hahahahahah! Exactamentico!
No, I don't think they are going to take oil from ANWR and distribute it and stage it all across the US so they can throw a switch and use it all at the same time during one hour.
What is your point????
Many people think if we just drilled ANWR, we could wean ourselves off the 13.9 mbpd of oil we import.
No, we gain 1 hours worth of oil. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Joined: Apr 09, 2007 Posts: 6375 Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).
Posted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 12:57 am Post subject: Re: Alaska North Slope may hold 36 bln bbl oil - US DOE
MonteQuest wrote:
Many people think if we just drilled ANWR, we could wean ourselves off the 13.9 mbpd of oil we import..
Nope.
The numbers don't work that way. You can't get all the energy needed from just one source or even from one kind of energy.
That isn't to say ANWR is insignificant....ANWR could produce 1-2 mbpd for a few decades.....about the same amount as Qatar or U.A.E. or one of the other second tier OPEC nations.
Posted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 1:14 am Post subject: Re: Alaska North Slope may hold 36 bln bbl oil - US DOE
Plantagenet wrote:
You can't get all the energy needed from just one source or even from one kind of energy.
You can't get 13.9 mbpd of energy from everything in the US.
Quote:
ANWR could produce 1-2 mbpd for a few decades
.9 mbpd is peak production. 1.25 mbpd is peak delivery. _________________ A Saudi saying, "My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son will ride a camel."
Live in Arizona? Check out: http://sustainablearizona.org and read my blog.
Posted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 8:56 am Post subject: Re: Alaska North Slope may hold 36 bln bbl oil - US DOE
Dino’s explanation is good as a general characterization of evaluating a field’s relative value over time. But there’s an even better reason to look at the time factor. It literally determines life and death of the project from the oil patch perspective. The decision to explore for or develop a particular project is controlled by this field life vs. reserve size factor. Essentially oil patch economic decisions are dominated by “net present value”. NPV adjusts the cash flow to take into account the time factor. A fld producing 2 millions bo over 20 years has a much lower NPV than a fld producing 1 mmbo over 4 years. The common discount rate is 15%. Think of the DR as the interest rate on a loan. A 15% loan paying back $1.15 in one year would have a NPV of $1 and thus no profit would be made. The NPV factor is used to determine the rate of return on any investment. The stock market demands y/y improvements in a public company’s position. As odd as it may seem virtually all public corps would chose a high NPV approach to development over a low NPV approach even if it produced a greater ult recovery. This is especially true in those big Deep Water plays. During those long development phases that 15% keeps compounding. If you look at the decline curves of the initial Deep Water Gulf of Mexico flds you’ll see high initial rates and relatively rapid declines. You’ve heard it before: Time is money. And when you’ve sunk $1.5 billion into a project before it flows the first bbl of oil that time is very expensive. Because of the logistic costs and similar time lags major projects on the North Slope will be evaluated over similar protocols.
It's not that it dismisses value but puts values into a time sensitive function so it's value can be compared to economics of other projects. A simplistic example would be to consider having $10 million in the bank under your name. Most would classify you as rich. But if you could only withdraw $1 per day I don't think to many long lost relatives would show up on your door steps. Under those withdrawl conditions the NPV of the $10 million would be zero.
Posted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 9:22 am Post subject: Re: Alaska North Slope may hold 36 bln bbl oil - US DOE
Quote:
"TAPS can transport a little over 2 mbpd, and carried about 740,000 bpd last year. Therefore, if we brought ANWR online today, it could at maximum deliver about 1.25 mbpd. But in reality, it would take 8-10 years after approval to begin producing the first of that oil. Furthermore, preliminary estimates by the USGS indicated that ANWR would likely only produce around 750,000 barrels per day at peak."-ASPO
TAPS can only transport 1.14 mbpd right now, since they have reconfigured the pumping schemes. It would take a lot of time an money to even push that up to 1.4 mbpd (provisions were made for adding pumps) -- and going back up to 2mpbd would take a major engineering and construction effort. _________________ "It don't make no sense that common sense don't make no sense no more"
John Prine
Joined: Apr 09, 2007 Posts: 6375 Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).
Posted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 9:39 am Post subject: Re: Alaska North Slope may hold 36 bln bbl oil - US DOE
Hawkcreek wrote:
Quote:
"TAPS can transport a little over 2 mbpd, and carried about 740,000 bpd last year. Therefore, if we brought ANWR online today, it could at maximum deliver about 1.25 mbpd. But in reality, it would take 8-10 years after approval to begin producing the first of that oil. Furthermore, preliminary estimates by the USGS indicated that ANWR would likely only produce around 750,000 barrels per day at peak."-ASPO
TAPS can only transport 1.14 mbpd right now, since they have reconfigured the pumping schemes. It would take a lot of time an money to even push that up to 1.4 mbpd (provisions were made for adding pumps) -- and going back up to 2mpbd would take a major engineering and construction effort.
Posted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 9:50 am Post subject: Re: Alaska North Slope may hold 36 bln bbl oil - US DOE
Quote:
Hawkcreek wrote:
Quote:
"TAPS can transport a little over 2 mbpd, and carried about 740,000 bpd last year. Therefore, if we brought ANWR online today, it could at maximum deliver about 1.25 mbpd. But in reality, it would take 8-10 years after approval to begin producing the first of that oil. Furthermore, preliminary estimates by the USGS indicated that ANWR would likely only produce around 750,000 barrels per day at peak."-ASPO
TAPS can only transport 1.14 mbpd right now, since they have reconfigured the pumping schemes. It would take a lot of time an money to even push that up to 1.4 mbpd (provisions were made for adding pumps) -- and going back up to 2mpbd would take a major engineering and construction effort.
Which would occur should ANWR oil be available.
By the time ANWR oil is available, the probable throughput will be down to around 400kbpd. By the time ANWR oil is up to 1mpbd, it will be even lower.
So I doubt more transport ability will ever be necessary.
I could be wrong, but the decline rates and possible throughput requirements were studied very closely before the decision was made to lower the capacity of the line.
Tiime will tell. _________________ "It don't make no sense that common sense don't make no sense no more"
John Prine
Joined: Apr 09, 2007 Posts: 6375 Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).
Posted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 10:05 am Post subject: Re: Alaska North Slope may hold 36 bln bbl oil - US DOE
Hawkcreek wrote:
Quote:
Hawkcreek wrote:
Quote:
"TAPS can transport a little over 2 mbpd, and carried about 740,000 bpd last year. Therefore, if we brought ANWR online today, it could at maximum deliver about 1.25 mbpd. But in reality, it would take 8-10 years after approval to begin producing the first of that oil. Furthermore, preliminary estimates by the USGS indicated that ANWR would likely only produce around 750,000 barrels per day at peak."-ASPO
TAPS can only transport 1.14 mbpd right now, since they have reconfigured the pumping schemes. It would take a lot of time an money to even push that up to 1.4 mbpd (provisions were made for adding pumps) -- and going back up to 2mpbd would take a major engineering and construction effort.
Which would occur should ANWR oil be available.
By the time ANWR oil is available, the probable throughput will be down to around 400kbpd. By the time ANWR oil is up to 1mpbd, it will be even lower.
So I doubt more transport ability will ever be necessary.
I could be wrong, but the decline rates and possible throughput requirements were studied very closely before the decision was made to lower the capacity of the line.
Tiime will tell.
Very good point. You are right.
And since Nancy Pelosi won't allow ANWR to be explored as long as she is speaker of the house, and since she is likely to be speaker (with an expanded majority) for something like a decade or so, ANWR oil is unlikely to be developed and flow to the pipeline in less then, say, 20 years.
Posted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 10:51 am Post subject: Re: Alaska North Slope may hold 36 bln bbl oil - US DOE
Quote:
And since Nancy Pelosi won't allow ANWR to be explored as long as she is speaker of the house, and since she is likely to be speaker (with an expanded majority) for something like a decade or so, ANWR oil is unlikely to be developed and flow to the pipeline in less then, say, 20 years.
Yes, and by then a lot of people will be freezing in the dark.
It is a shame that we don't open the season on politicians. _________________ "It don't make no sense that common sense don't make no sense no more"
John Prine
Posted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 3:17 pm Post subject: Re: Alaska North Slope may hold 36 bln bbl oil - US DOE
I'm going to make a WAG. As Rockdoc and others have shown here, this oil will not be produced until 2015 or later. American is broke now and by 2015, we will be bankrupt with all the unfunded entitlement programs we have here in the U.S. So, if this oil is ever going to get out of the ground, it will be developed and produced by foreign companies under leases from the US and, like Nigeria, all our oil will be shipped somewhere overseas. Further, those foreigners will probably build a LNG facility in Alaska to ship all the NG overseas too.
America still has lots of good natural resources like oil, coal and NG, we are just going to be too broke to develop and produce them. These stupid wars and entitlement programs we can't afford virtually assure us 3rd world status. We are selling all our toll roads and other infrastructure to the Arabs, why not sell all our oil to the Asians?
Posted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 3:28 pm Post subject: Re: Alaska North Slope may hold 36 bln bbl oil - US DOE
MD wrote:
It won't be long before it will be political suicide to oppose exploiting that resource.
I totally agree. Whether ANWR or the OCS hold much oil isn't really the point. It's going to get used sooner or later, so why oppose it now? _________________ "We were standing on the edges
Of a thousand burning bridges
Sifting through the ashes every day
What we thought would never end
Now is nothing more than a memory
The way things were before
I lost my way" - OCMS
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