How then, do we move backwards? How does a society, with most of the people having no clue of future events, move from being dependent on a vast and intertwined network of goods and services produced by the indigenous people of whereever, to a local resource and renewable energy based society, and do so in the timeframe available (20-30 years using the most liberal extimates, 10-20 with resonable estimates, 5-10 with worst case scenarios), all the while prices on everything increasing, world politics getting more militaristic, governments continuously reducing civil liberties, shortages of goods on the market and weather patterns resembling bad Hollywood movies?
Posted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 1:23 pm Post subject: Re: Speaker Pelosi says no to more offshore oil drilling
Plantagenet wrote:
We'll wait until Queen Nancy Pelosi says its ok....or until she is deposed and a more rational person becomes speaker of the House.
It's a representative democracy, dumbass. As one of her constituents, living on the west coast, you are god damn right i don't want any more icky poo oil spills.
Posted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 1:38 pm Post subject: Re: Speaker Pelosi says no to more offshore oil drilling
aflurry wrote:
It should be painful to take a jet plane to mexico for a weekend of bing drinking.
Hey some people like bings some like pina coladas. So prices should be high because then people will become more moral? There is a $30 speculation premium in the current price and about a $14 risk premium. Alot of the speculators are hedging their fuel costs by buying futures, so as usual it will be the little guys that get smacked down when gas adjust to the rise and flirts with $5 unleaded and $6 diesel. There are several mitigation steps that can be taken but if price skyrockets out of all sane estimates due to anything other than fundamentals all hope of mitigation is lost. We have two bugaboos, and overcorrection due to excessive price, and an overcorrection due to shortages from price being too low. $150 is financially too high right now for a significant number of Americans and the psychology it brings is hurting everyone. And God forbid but once we get a run on the bank that we call stocks of finished fuels because a panic arises over shortage fears the country as you and I know it is done. Martial law will be imposed and you will be relocated to a facility where your skill set matches the needs of the continuity of government team. We need to stay as far way from the levels that over correct demand as possible. The scarcity appropriate price is somewhere between $90 and $120 (IMHO.)
Posted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 3:41 pm Post subject: Re: Speaker Pelosi says no to more offshore oil drilling
aflurry wrote:
I have a question for those who favor offshore and ANWR drilling as a way to decrease our "dependence on foreign oil."
once the oil is extracted, doesn't it belong to the same companies that extract it from anywhere in the world, to be sold on an open, international market? do you think the shareholders of those companies would allow preferential sales terms to US consumers at below market rates? What difference does it make whether the oil is from US or foreign sources once it gets to market?
Response to first bolded portion. Yes. That is correct in the current regulatory scheme. The market for oil is global so it really doesn't matter where the oil goes. Ironic some politicians want to sue OPEC for not exporting more oil yet want to ban American exports (which are mainly confined to Alaskan oil). So long as you can import oil at $x and export at $x+y then there is no problem here.
The second bolded statement is more important. The big difference is the U.S. government gets a fat piece of the pie from oil produced domestically. The government didn't have to buy a drop of SPR oil. It was all from royalty payment swaps. Further, Uncle Sam gets a slice of domestic oil profits, investor profits, oil sector wage earnings, gas taxes to haul the equipment and workers, etc. In the end the government probably ends up with 50% of the oil wealth when combining payments and taxation. The public gets an earful over Exxon's profits but never hears about the firm's 40+% effective tax rate. Record profits = record tax revenue. All this and we havn't even touched on the trade deficit.
Joined: Apr 09, 2007 Posts: 5062 Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).
Posted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 3:55 pm Post subject: Re: Speaker Pelosi says no to more offshore oil drilling
aflurry wrote:
What difference does it make whether the oil is from US or foreign sources once it gets to market?
None at all. It will all work equally well in your car.
I know some people like to drive a foreign car and drink imported Perrier water and prefer French wines to good old California wines, but with gas it really doesn't matter. Domestic is just as good as imported. _________________ "People sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf." -- George Orwell
Joined: Oct 15, 2005 Posts: 1448 Location: Portland, Oregon
Posted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 5:45 pm Post subject: Re: Speaker Pelosi says no to more offshore oil drilling
Four main reasons why increased domestic drilling in currently off-limits areas is dumb:
1) Strategically it is a waste of our last major untapped deposits of oil. Save it for a decade or two when things get really really dire and we need something to keep the lights on...
2) Why let oil companies exploit it and sell it at Global Spot market prices just to quench the thirst of millions of new Chindian econocar drivers?
3) Why use up our last oil resources when it will make nary a difference in the price of the pump? It is likely to only marginally reduce the rate of inflation in oil prices.
4) Why focus on drilling when it is unlikely to even reduce the global rate of depletion. Any new oil will simply be swallowed up by new consumers in the unlikely scenario that the price goes down.
The only sane reason I have heard is to go ahead and drill so that we get that red herring out of the way and concentrate on true ways of adapting to a Post Peak world...
But I'm happy to hear silly partisan hacking about Nancy Pelosi ...both the parties are out to lunch and anyone here should know that...
Joined: Apr 09, 2007 Posts: 5062 Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).
Posted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 6:24 pm Post subject: Re: Speaker Pelosi says no to more offshore oil drilling
thuja wrote:
Four main reasons why increased domestic drilling in currently off-limits areas is dumb:
1) Strategically it is a waste of our last major untapped deposits of oil. Save it for a decade or two when things get really really dire and we need something to keep the lights on...
2) Why let oil companies exploit it and sell it at Global Spot market prices just to quench the thirst of millions of new Chindian econocar drivers?
3) Why use up our last oil resources when it will make nary a difference in the price of the pump? It is likely to only marginally reduce the rate of inflation in oil prices.
4) Why focus on drilling when it is unlikely to even reduce the global rate of depletion. Any new oil will simply be swallowed up by new consumers in the unlikely scenario that the price goes down.
If you think that peak oil won't affect the US economy or the global economy to any great extent in the next 20 years, then it makes sense to put off opening ANWR and the OCS. However, if you think that peak oil is going to have a substantial impact within the next 10 years, then it might be wise to dethrone Queen Nancy Pelosi and open up some new areas for drilling now, because it will take 10 years before significant amounts of the new oil makes it to market.
IMHO, any new oil from ANWR and the OCS won't be enough to overcome the approaching energy shortages caused by peak oil, but they can be part of a bridge to help fund new alternative energy strategies and build the new energy infrastructure.
It would be foolish to focus on ANWR and the OCS oil to the exclusion of renewable energy sources, but it is equally foolish to ignore the fact that our entire current infrastructure is based on oil, and that aging oil infrastructure has to operate a while longer to keep the economy going while we transition to new energy sources.
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