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Post new topic This topic is locked, you cannot edit posts or make further replies.  [ 1053 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1 ... 60, 61, 62, 63, 64, 65, 66 ... 71  Next
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 Post subject: Re: Oil Prices Dropping
New postPosted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 6:46 pm 
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Hogan wrote:
Physical oil limits and field depletions are about to b*tch slap the world back into reality. And I mean hard. Governments around the world will do everything in their power to keep the oil flowing in order to avoid collapsing into chaos. We shall see who is right and who is wrong about how inelastic oil demand really is.


The floor is higher than many think, but the ceiling is much lower. It will likely end up trading in a range between $70 and $100 per barrel, as a consequence, for the next few years. My husband and I figure we can EASILY cut our consumption 50% if we have to. If the prices don't drop significantly we all go moped, particularly China, India. I'm very suspicious of insiders in the oil industry, like Pickens, Simmons, and analysts from the energy trading desks of JPMorgan and Citibank, who tell us otherwise. Though, I don't doubt Simmon's sincerity, I sure do the other players who appear to want to create a self reinforcing pumping operation.


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 Post subject: Re: Oil Prices Dropping
New postPosted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 7:11 pm 
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Hogan wrote:
ColossalContrarian wrote:
Re: Oil Prices Dropping

With the US placing diplomats in Iran oil should drop. No more saber rattling, the US yelled “Uncle!” with the missile launches and Iran showed how they could us oil as a weapon. We aren’t out of the woods yes as far as prices go but at least there’s some dialog between the US and Iran, that is HUGE.


What is huge is that the US said it would support Israel in an attack on Iran if talks failed. That is huge.


How many times have the US and Israel threatened Iran and vs versa?

No surprise at all… but what is a surprise is that they’re talking and now oil is dropping. If Isael, America, and Iran want the price of oil to go up the know what to do. If they want it to skyrocket they know what to do.

It doesn't matter much because we all know how it will inevitably end.


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 Post subject: Re: Oil Prices Dropping
New postPosted: Thu Jul 17, 2008 7:17 pm 
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CoachT wrote:
$100, $100, $100

Do I hear $80, $80 going twice, Sold for 80.

I think if I still was invested in oil, I would get out before the weekend.

Smart investors know when to cut their losses.


Hey coach T - if it hits 80, I'll send you a money order for 100 bucks. No kidding. I'll be impressed if you're right.

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 Post subject: Re: Oil Prices Dropping
New postPosted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 2:14 am 
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The more people shout $100, $80, $70, $50, the happier I will be.
Because, you see, I'm a contrarian :lol:

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 Post subject: Re: Oil Prices Dropping
New postPosted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 10:26 am 
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CNBC is stating Energy sector is heavily shorted. Expect a good bounce if Iran/US nuke talks go as expected. Expect another $8-10 drop if IRAN caves in.
I think US shorts will lighten thier positions this afternnoon.


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 Post subject: Re: Oil Prices Dropping
New postPosted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 2:08 pm 
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So what I'm hearing is that "If we can all just get along", we will see a reduction in the price of about $40.00/BR.

So the true supply/demand constraints place the cost of oil between $60 to $80 per barrel ???????

If we open ANWR and OCS then we may see a further drop??????

Hell, I can live with that. Oh well, I will shelve plans for the prius and keep my landcruiser!

Or is this just the eye of the storm????????

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 Post subject: Re: Oil Prices Dropping
New postPosted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 4:09 pm 
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I do not worry too much what the price of gas is.
I ride a motorcycle, weather permitting, This is me with my 2006 Suzuki M109R in Eureka Springs Arkansas last May. THe blue one next to my silver is my wife Sandra's 2006 Suzuki M50. The M109 is 1800cc, the M50 is 800cc. I use them both to commute to work as frequently as possible.
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 Post subject: Re: Oil Prices Dropping
New postPosted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 6:10 pm 
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SoylentGreen wrote:
If we burn less ,India and China will burn it up, no problem.


MonteQuest wrote:
The less we use the more China will use. China and the other emerging economies set the price of oil now, not the US.

Empty hand waving. The numbers say otherwise. Over the last 3 years average growth in consumption has been as follows (from the BP Stat Rev 2008):

China: 361 kbd
India: 58 kbd
US: -11 kbd

The most recent stats for US petroleum products supplied show the following year-on-year drop:

7/13/2007: 21,008
7/11/2008: 20,198

That's a drop of 810 kbd. Do the math. Current US demand destruction is enough to wipe out *two* years worth of Chindia demand growth. Chindia simply can't grow fast enough to overcome the US plunge, and the market is waking up to that.

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 Post subject: Re: Oil Prices Dropping
New postPosted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 7:38 pm 
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There are all kinds of factors in the rise and drop of oil. My .02 is this - over the last several months, two factors contributed to the big jump in prices: (1) US inventories steadily dropping (uncharacteristically) and sending our inventories below average levels; (2) all the saber rattling with Iran. So, its easy to understand with the "surprise" increase in inventories this week and the sudden about face in US relations with Iran (announcing both direct talks and opening a diplomatic presence in Tehran), that oil prices would drop. How far? Who knows, but the speculation caused by those two factors has now been taken out, so that we can see a price based on supply and demand. That's my take.


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 Post subject: Re: Oil Prices Dropping
New postPosted: Sat Jul 19, 2008 5:08 am 
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Here's another reason to throw into the pile :

Quote:
news.yahoo.com :

Beijing begins massive Olympic shutdown

Beijing's Olympic shutdown begins Sunday, a drastic plan to lift the Chinese capital's gray shroud of pollution just three weeks ahead of the games.

Half of Beijing's 3.3 million vehicles will be pulled off the roads and many polluting factories will be shuttered. Chemical plants, power stations and foundries left open have to cut emissions by 30 percent - and dust-spewing construction in the capital will be halted ...


The phrase "wayang show" comes to mind. It's what we say over here when somebody does a staged show for public consumption.

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 Post subject: Re: Oil Prices Dropping
New postPosted: Sat Jul 19, 2008 8:20 am 
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seahorse wrote:
There are all kinds of factors in the rise and drop of oil. My .02 is this - over the last several months, two factors contributed to the big jump in prices: (1) US inventories steadily dropping (uncharacteristically) and sending our inventories below average levels; (2) all the saber rattling with Iran. So, its easy to understand with the "surprise" increase in inventories this week and the sudden about face in US relations with Iran (announcing both direct talks and opening a diplomatic presence in Tehran), that oil prices would drop. How far? Who knows, but the speculation caused by those two factors has now been taken out, so that we can see a price based on supply and demand. That's my take.



I think that's an excellent observation. $125 to $130 seems to be the price after the Iran and immediate supply fear are removed.

But there are a few more factors that can quite suddenly impact the price not only as a fear factor, but as a cause of a reduction in production, and #1 among them is growing in the eastern caribbean right now. It could be huge.

There are many other threats, but that's the one that will impact markets Monday morning.

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 Post subject: Re: Oil Prices Dropping
New postPosted: Sat Jul 19, 2008 9:24 am 
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HOT off the PRESS!!!!! Iran says NO ,they will continue thier uranium enrichment program. The OIL sell off last week was fueled by the(dim)hope the EU and the US would negotiate Iran's cancellation of thier uranium enrichment to a certain extent.???will we see a bounce monday?


Last edited by SoylentGreen on Sat Jul 19, 2008 3:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: Oil Prices Dropping
New postPosted: Sat Jul 19, 2008 9:29 am 
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SoylentGreen wrote:
HOT off the PRESS!!!!! Iran says NO ,they will continue to enrich uranium program. The OIL sell off was fueled by the(dim)hope the EU and the US would negotiate Iran's cancellation of thier uranium enrichment to a certain extent.???will we see a bounce monday?


http://in.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/id ... 4220080719

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