Menu
 News
 Search
 Topics
 Stories Archive
 Submit News
 Discussions
 Code of Conduct
 Forums
 Forum Search
 Last 24 Hours
 PO 24hrs
 Peak Blog
 Ask Jane
 Resources
 About Us
 Downloads
 Web Links
 PeakWiki
 PeakPortal
 Focus Search
 Peak TV
 Peak Oil Boston
 Houston Peak Oil
 Follow on Twitter
 Members
 User Panel
 Members List
 PO Team
 JOIN!
 Private Messages
 
Support PeakOil.com
Visit Our Advertisers
 
Light Sweet Crude Oil
 




Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 76 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6  Next
Author Message
 Post subject: Re: Oil Prices Dropping
New postPosted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 7:38 pm 
Offline
Expert
Expert
User avatar

Joined: Fri Oct 15, 2004 12:00 am
Posts: 2344
Location: Arkansas
There are all kinds of factors in the rise and drop of oil. My .02 is this - over the last several months, two factors contributed to the big jump in prices: (1) US inventories steadily dropping (uncharacteristically) and sending our inventories below average levels; (2) all the saber rattling with Iran. So, its easy to understand with the "surprise" increase in inventories this week and the sudden about face in US relations with Iran (announcing both direct talks and opening a diplomatic presence in Tehran), that oil prices would drop. How far? Who knows, but the speculation caused by those two factors has now been taken out, so that we can see a price based on supply and demand. That's my take.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Oil Prices Dropping
New postPosted: Sat Jul 19, 2008 5:08 am 
Offline
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
User avatar

Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2004 12:00 am
Posts: 1527
Location: Singapore
Here's another reason to throw into the pile :

Quote:
news.yahoo.com :

Beijing begins massive Olympic shutdown

Beijing's Olympic shutdown begins Sunday, a drastic plan to lift the Chinese capital's gray shroud of pollution just three weeks ahead of the games.

Half of Beijing's 3.3 million vehicles will be pulled off the roads and many polluting factories will be shuttered. Chemical plants, power stations and foundries left open have to cut emissions by 30 percent - and dust-spewing construction in the capital will be halted ...


The phrase "wayang show" comes to mind. It's what we say over here when somebody does a staged show for public consumption.

_________________
Live quotes - crude oil, gold and currencies
http://www.post1.net/lowem/page/livequotes


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Oil Prices Dropping
New postPosted: Sat Jul 19, 2008 8:20 am 
Offline
Moderator
Moderator
User avatar

Joined: Sat Dec 18, 2004 1:00 am
Posts: 6256
Location: One Mile From the Columbia River
seahorse wrote:
There are all kinds of factors in the rise and drop of oil. My .02 is this - over the last several months, two factors contributed to the big jump in prices: (1) US inventories steadily dropping (uncharacteristically) and sending our inventories below average levels; (2) all the saber rattling with Iran. So, its easy to understand with the "surprise" increase in inventories this week and the sudden about face in US relations with Iran (announcing both direct talks and opening a diplomatic presence in Tehran), that oil prices would drop. How far? Who knows, but the speculation caused by those two factors has now been taken out, so that we can see a price based on supply and demand. That's my take.



I think that's an excellent observation. $125 to $130 seems to be the price after the Iran and immediate supply fear are removed.

But there are a few more factors that can quite suddenly impact the price not only as a fear factor, but as a cause of a reduction in production, and #1 among them is growing in the eastern caribbean right now. It could be huge.

There are many other threats, but that's the one that will impact markets Monday morning.

_________________
Got Dharma?

Everything is Impermanent. Shakyamuni Buddha


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Oil Prices Dropping
New postPosted: Sat Jul 19, 2008 9:24 am 
Offline
Heavy Crude
Heavy Crude
User avatar

Joined: Sun May 25, 2008 12:00 am
Posts: 168
HOT off the PRESS!!!!! Iran says NO ,they will continue thier uranium enrichment program. The OIL sell off last week was fueled by the(dim)hope the EU and the US would negotiate Iran's cancellation of thier uranium enrichment to a certain extent.???will we see a bounce monday?


Last edited by SoylentGreen on Sat Jul 19, 2008 3:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.

Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Oil Prices Dropping
New postPosted: Sat Jul 19, 2008 9:29 am 
Offline
Moderator
Moderator
User avatar

Joined: Mon Nov 08, 2004 1:00 am
Posts: 7621
SoylentGreen wrote:
HOT off the PRESS!!!!! Iran says NO ,they will continue to enrich uranium program. The OIL sell off was fueled by the(dim)hope the EU and the US would negotiate Iran's cancellation of thier uranium enrichment to a certain extent.???will we see a bounce monday?


http://in.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/id ... 4220080719

_________________
"We were standing on the edges
Of a thousand burning bridges
Sifting through the ashes every day
What we thought would never end
Now is nothing more than a memory
The way things were before
I lost my way" - OCMS


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Oil Prices Dropping
New postPosted: Sat Jul 19, 2008 9:38 am 
Offline
Moderator
Moderator
User avatar

Joined: Sat Dec 18, 2004 1:00 am
Posts: 6256
Location: One Mile From the Columbia River
smallpoxgirl wrote:
SoylentGreen wrote:
HOT off the PRESS!!!!! Iran says NO ,they will continue to enrich uranium program. The OIL sell off was fueled by the(dim)hope the EU and the US would negotiate Iran's cancellation of thier uranium enrichment to a certain extent.???will we see a bounce monday?


http://in.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/id ... 4220080719


That and the new storm. Monday will be very exciting... yup!

_________________
Got Dharma?

Everything is Impermanent. Shakyamuni Buddha


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Oil Prices Dropping
New postPosted: Mon Jul 21, 2008 1:34 am 
Offline
Coal
Coal
User avatar

Joined: Wed Jul 09, 2008 12:00 am
Posts: 16
Location: Hong Kong
IMHO, the underlying driver of the current price volatility is the difference between supply and demand on a daily basis.

during the last "oil price shock" (1999?) there was a 5 mbd cushion. supply exceeded demand by 5 million barrels on a daily basis.

that cushion has shrunk to 1 million barrels now. any disruption in supply or even potential disruption in supply will cause the price to spike.

Nigeria, Iran, Tropical Storm Whoever, will all cause oil to spike because there simply isn't enough production on a daily basis to keep the work adequately supplied, in the event of even a minor disruption in supply.

Iran's oil production of 4 mbd can hardly be called a minor disruption. you're right, Monday will be interesting day in the markets.

Oil closed marginally higher, to just under US$129 in the markets over here today.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Oil Prices Dropping
New postPosted: Mon Jul 21, 2008 3:51 am 
Offline
Coal
Coal
User avatar

Joined: Mon Jul 21, 2008 12:00 am
Posts: 1
theres no doubt iran strives to be a nuclear power in the middle east. what i find interesting is how the west wants to stop them via discussion or economic sanctions, when the iranians would want to gain there nuclear power this way. string along the west and aviod confrontation until such time as you are a nuclear power, then who'd dare start confrontation?

i see this problem ending either at the brink of confrontation with iran accepting defeat of its nuclear ambitions, or iran pushing its luck too far ths causing confrontation.

whats your thoughts?


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Oil Prices Dropping
New postPosted: Mon Jul 21, 2008 4:23 am 
Offline
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
User avatar

Joined: Tue May 27, 2008 12:00 am
Posts: 1207
Location: TEXAS
Just a gentle reminder: oil prices have not gone down. The futures contracts for Aug delivery have closed lower. The folks I know who actually sell and buy oil haven't changed the price structure any significant level. Come Aug we'll see if the future players guessed right: if oil is above $135 or so a lot of them are going to loose a big chunk of capital. And if they leveraged on options they'll be slaughtered. But that's the life of a gambler. If oil futures drops below $120 they'll make a nice profit and get credit for helping to lower oil prices (snicker).


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Oil Prices Dropping
New postPosted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 7:15 am 
Offline
Moderator
Moderator
User avatar

Joined: Mon Nov 08, 2004 1:00 am
Posts: 7621
The fall has resumed. It's down to $126.26 this morning. Next pause will likely be at the 50% retracement line: $122.60.

Meanwhile natural gas continues to close in on it's 200 day moving average. From $13.69 on 7/2, August natural gas contracts are down to $9.88 today. The 200 day moving average is at $9.72.

_________________
"We were standing on the edges
Of a thousand burning bridges
Sifting through the ashes every day
What we thought would never end
Now is nothing more than a memory
The way things were before
I lost my way" - OCMS


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Oil Prices Dropping
New postPosted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 8:04 am 
Offline
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
User avatar

Joined: Thu Mar 27, 2008 12:00 am
Posts: 1969
smallpoxgirl wrote:
The fall has resumed. It's down to $126.26 this morning. Next pause will likely be at the 50% retracement line: $122.60.

Meanwhile natural gas continues to close in on it's 200 day moving average. From $13.69 on 7/2, August natural gas contracts are down to $9.88 today. The 200 day moving average is at $9.72.


SPG - so far your call has been dead on. Well done.

_________________
Massive Human Dieoff <b>must</b> occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where <b>you</b> live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Oil Prices Dropping
New postPosted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 8:48 am 
Offline
Coal
Coal
User avatar

Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2008 12:00 am
Posts: 13
Ouch again. Tomorrow will be a very interesting day.
$100, $100, $100
$80, $80 twice, Sold for $80


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Oil Prices Dropping
New postPosted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 8:51 am 
Offline
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
User avatar

Joined: Fri Aug 03, 2007 12:00 am
Posts: 763
Cashmere I like you new avatar..... The old one made was just disgusting :lol:

_________________
Tired of high gas prices? [smilie=BangHead.gif] Then stop driving to work, duh..... Learn to Work from home

Peak Oil Blog = http://getroasted.wordpress.com


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Oil Prices Dropping
New postPosted: Wed Jul 23, 2008 11:37 am 
Offline
Coal
Coal
User avatar

Joined: Wed Jul 02, 2008 12:00 am
Posts: 13
:-D :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D

You were warned.

Losers don't know when to cut their losses.


Top
 Profile  
 
 Post subject: Re: Oil Prices Dropping
New postPosted: Wed Jul 23, 2008 12:44 pm 
Offline
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
User avatar

Joined: Thu Mar 27, 2008 12:00 am
Posts: 1969
CoachT wrote:
:-D :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D :-D

You were warned.

Losers don't know when to cut their losses.


Actually, I don't T - I'm still waiting on the PM with your contact info so we can set up the private commodities contract.

_________________
Massive Human Dieoff <b>must</b> occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where <b>you</b> live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.


Top
 Profile  
 
Display posts from previous:  Sort by  
Post new topic Reply to topic  [ 76 posts ]  Go to page Previous  1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6  Next


Who is online

Users browsing this forum: AirlinePilot, DomusAlbion, Google Adsense [Bot] and 5 guests


You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot post attachments in this forum

Jump to:  
Atom News Feed   Forums RSS Feed