The floor is higher than many think, but the ceiling is much lower. It will likely end up trading in a range between $70 and $100 per barrel, as a consequence, for the next few years. My husband and I figure we can EASILY cut our consumption 50% if we have to. If the prices don't drop significantly we all go moped, particularly China, India. I'm very suspicious of insiders in the oil industry, like Pickens, Simmons, and analysts from the energy trading desks of JPMorgan and Citibank, who tell us otherwise. Though, I don't doubt Simmon's sincerity, I sure do the other players who appear to want to create a self reinforcing pumping operation.

How many times have the US and Israel threatened Iran and vs versa?

No surprise at all… but what is a surprise is that they’re talking and now oil is dropping. If Isael, America, and Iran want the price of oil to go up the know what to do. If they want it to skyrocket they know what to do.

It doesn't matter much because we all know how it will inevitably end.

Hey coach T - if it hits 80, I'll send you a money order for 100 bucks. No kidding. I'll be impressed if you're right.

The more people shout $100, $80, $70, $50, the happier I will be.
Because, you see, I'm a contrarian

CNBC is stating Energy sector is heavily shorted. Expect a good bounce if Iran/US nuke talks go as expected. Expect another $8-10 drop if IRAN caves in.
I think US shorts will lighten thier positions this afternnoon.

So what I'm hearing is that "If we can all just get along", we will see a reduction in the price of about $40.00/BR.

So the true supply/demand constraints place the cost of oil between $60 to $80 per barrel ???????

If we open ANWR and OCS then we may see a further drop??????

Hell, I can live with that. Oh well, I will shelve plans for the prius and keep my landcruiser!

Or is this just the eye of the storm????????

I do not worry too much what the price of gas is.
I ride a motorcycle, weather permitting, This is me with my 2006 Suzuki M109R in Eureka Springs Arkansas last May. THe blue one next to my silver is my wife Sandra's 2006 Suzuki M50. The M109 is 1800cc, the M50 is 800cc. I use them both to commute to work as frequently as possible.

Empty hand waving. The numbers say otherwise. Over the last 3 years average growth in consumption has been as follows (from the BP Stat Rev 2008):

China: 361 kbd
India: 58 kbd
US: -11 kbd

The most recent stats for US petroleum products supplied show the following year-on-year drop:

7/13/2007: 21,008
7/11/2008: 20,198

That's a drop of 810 kbd. Do the math. Current US demand destruction is enough to wipe out *two* years worth of Chindia demand growth. Chindia simply can't grow fast enough to overcome the US plunge, and the market is waking up to that.

There are all kinds of factors in the rise and drop of oil. My .02 is this - over the last several months, two factors contributed to the big jump in prices: (1) US inventories steadily dropping (uncharacteristically) and sending our inventories below average levels; (2) all the saber rattling with Iran. So, its easy to understand with the "surprise" increase in inventories this week and the sudden about face in US relations with Iran (announcing both direct talks and opening a diplomatic presence in Tehran), that oil prices would drop. How far? Who knows, but the speculation caused by those two factors has now been taken out, so that we can see a price based on supply and demand. That's my take.

Here's another reason to throw into the pile :



The phrase "wayang show" comes to mind. It's what we say over here when somebody does a staged show for public consumption.

I think that's an excellent observation. $125 to $130 seems to be the price after the Iran and immediate supply fear are removed.

But there are a few more factors that can quite suddenly impact the price not only as a fear factor, but as a cause of a reduction in production, and #1 among them is growing in the eastern caribbean right now. It could be huge.

There are many other threats, but that's the one that will impact markets Monday morning.

HOT off the PRESS!!!!! Iran says NO ,they will continue thier uranium enrichment program. The OIL sell off last week was fueled by the(dim)hope the EU and the US would negotiate Iran's cancellation of thier uranium enrichment to a certain extent.???will we see a bounce monday?

http://in.reuters.com/article/oilRpt/id ... 4220080719