Posted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 11:10 am Post subject: Re: Best and worst countries to be in
It is hard to say. What do you know about Chile? What are its products (fruit for export, wine, fish)? What are its sources of energy? How much energy do Chileans use? Where in Chile would you live? What does Chile import? Answer these questions and you may have a better idea.
Joined: Sep 03, 2007 Posts: 620 Location: Sunny Virginia, USA
Posted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 11:16 am Post subject: Re: Best and worst countries to be in
IMHO, there are requirements no matter where you live.
1) Access to fresh water
2) Ownership of arable land
3) To be surrounded by neighbors who care if you live or die
4) The freedom, for the most part, to live as you wish and defend yourself
5) To be insulated by at least 40 miles from a large city that is unsustainable (> 100,000 people)
6) Somplace that does not get too cold or too hot for the number of people living there and is defensable from natural disasters
This is a good strategy pre and post PO, but it's vital post PO. Where? There are lots of places that would fit this bill. I know of locations in Virginia and Wisconsin that would fit this bill.
#5 - This is the bug in the mix as it's definable in so many ways. A city of under 100,000 where people have lots to support a 1000 sq ft and the local farms are productive enough, in an organic way, to provide food for the city is my idea of sustainable. Enough people to do things, and keep things going, but not enough to over extend the ecosystem too much. Such places did exist and will again if things don't collapse too far, too fast.
#6 - If you live where it get's below 45 F then heat becomes a vital requirement. If that is provided by wood, then you will need several acres per household to be sustainable. If you live where it gets to hot, people need a way to say cool.
As far as natural disasters are concerned, they are legion and the most common is probably weather and fire. At the least, the infrastructure must be capable of handling natural disasters because infrastructure repair can get quite costly. _________________ When somebody makes a statement you don't understand, don't tell him he's crazy. Ask him what he means. -- Otto Harkaman, Space Viking
Posted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 12:19 pm Post subject: Re: Best and worst countries to be in
Quote:
IMHO, there are requirements no matter where you live.
1) Access to fresh water
2) Ownership of arable land
3) To be surrounded by neighbors who care if you live or die
4) The freedom, for the most part, to live as you wish and defend yourself
5) To be insulated by at least 40 miles from a large city that is unsustainable (> 100,000 people)
6) Somplace that does not get too cold or too hot for the number of people living there and is defensable from natural disasters
I agree with this list.
My worst countries to be in, in order:
1. Japan
2. UK
3. NZ
After that, there are too many regional variations. _________________ Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
Posted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 12:56 pm Post subject: Re: Best and worst countries to be in
Cashmere wrote:
I agree with this list.
My worst countries to be in, in order:
1. Japan
2. UK
3. NZ
After that, there are too many regional variations.
Do you mean the worst out of a list of rich countries? Coz as hideous as things will be in the UK I can't say I'd fancy escaping to Zimbabwe, Bangladesh, Burkina Faso ... [etc]
Just noticed that 2 of the 3 I mentioned are landlocked ... I'd prefer access to the sea so that rules out most of the remaining 41 landlocked countries for me.
Last edited by energycity on Sun Jul 20, 2008 1:07 pm; edited 1 time in total
Joined: Jul 02, 2008 Posts: 437 Location: Espinho, Porto, Portugal
Posted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 1:07 pm Post subject: Re: Best and worst countries to be in
Most Mediterranean countries have the required climate, but I don't trust the leaderships much. France has a long tradition of social caring, and so does Germany. Austria, maybe?
Suggestion; stay in your country. It will be tough enough if you speak the native language, all hell will break loose when someone realizes you're a foreigner.
Posted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 1:23 pm Post subject: Re: Best and worst countries to be in
cualcrees wrote:
Which country or countries would you say are the best ones to live in when the SHTF? Which countries would you avoid?
I live in Mexico and my Mom talks about moving to Chile (she's in love with that country). So, would that be a good choice?
Thanks!
Chile imports 100% of its energy, regarding agriculture, they import a big percentage of their consuption as well (so i was told, i don´t have any links to offer), look at the geograpy in Google Earth and you can see that there´s not a lot of room for agriculture there.
I would stay away from Chile from that point of view.
On the other hand if you want a secluded place, most of the terrain is montanius so you can get a nice set up. _________________ Stocking up on popcorn
Joined: Jul 02, 2008 Posts: 437 Location: Espinho, Porto, Portugal
Posted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 1:25 pm Post subject: Re: Best and worst countries to be in
Nicholai wrote:
Worst:
1. Bangladesh
2. Vietnam
3. Philippines
4. Indonesia
5. Sri Lanka
Best:
1. Norway
2. Finland
3. Canada
4. Siberia
5. New Zealand
Here's a question for you, Nicholai: aren't all your "best" countries excessively cold, therefore providing too small yields in agriculture? I mean, the most important civilizations of yore appeared in the Mediterranean...
Joined: Sep 29, 2004 Posts: 2330 Location: Pennsylvania, USA
Posted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 2:06 pm Post subject: Re: Best and worst countries to be in
IMO, it's all about productive land per capita. Productive as in food production. For example, the US has about 1.8 acres per person, meaning that for every person in the US, there is a field, one and a half acres in size producing crops year round. Abundant fresh water is the other thing.
If you look at that stat, you see some interesting contrasts. For example, China has less than 1/10th acre per person, which is usually assumed to be the reason for their largely vegetarian diet presently.
Assuming an almost complete lack of access to oil, all other things being equal, you are still better off in a farmland rich country. Less productive land means you need more land for the same amount of crop. If you are right at the minimum now... Well, I think you can figure that out for yourself. _________________ "That's the problem with mercy, kid... It just ain't professional" - Fast Eddie, The Color of Money
Joined: Sep 03, 2007 Posts: 620 Location: Sunny Virginia, USA
Posted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 2:21 pm Post subject: Re: Best and worst countries to be in
My idea of the best places to be "pre-die off" are:
United States - Many places
Canada - Vancouver area
But that's mainly because I'm an english speaker who has a hard time picking up other languages.
Post die-off? Pick your spot. _________________ When somebody makes a statement you don't understand, don't tell him he's crazy. Ask him what he means. -- Otto Harkaman, Space Viking
Joined: Jun 15, 2007 Posts: 566 Location: St.Albert, AB
Posted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 2:44 pm Post subject: Re: Best and worst countries to be in
Quote:
Here's a question for you, Nicholai: aren't all your "best" countries excessively cold, therefore providing too small yields in agriculture?
Someone clearly hasn't been to Canada or Norway. Firstly, Canada and Scandinavia produce HUGE amounts of food even though we have some of the coldest winters in the world. Saskatchewan was the breadbasket of the Commonwealth during the second World War and with temperatures rising, these places are only going to get warmer and provide larger crop yields.
Population density to total arable land is also something important to consider. Norway has plenty of land and is also the second largest seafood exporter in the world next to China. A country of 4.6 million is the second largest seafood exporter to a country of 1.4 billion? Sounds like dinner to me :D
Finland has enormous supplies of fresh water, a low population density, lots of arable land and a vast majority of the Finnish population still has family in the rural regions of the country.
Quote:
I mean, the most important civilizations of yore appeared in the Mediterranean...
Definition of "yore" : Obsolete. of old; long ago.
I would argue that a vast majority of major civilizations were centered around the Turkish region. Egypt was once the powerhouse of the world. Not much more than an overpopulated river valley at this point.
Just because some regions were powerful under a certain paradigm does in no way guarantee success long into the future. Europe was one of the most unstable regions in the world for the vast majority of the last two millennium. Roman armies, Gothic hoards, fiefdom and servitude....Europe was a fairly disgusting place up until the exploitation of fossil fuels. Pick up a copy of Charles Dickens if you think otherwise.
The regions I have named will not experience earthquakes, hurricanes or any massive storms any time soon. Fishing and agriculture are available in all regions put forward.
Remember, some parts of these regions AREN'T going to fare very well. The major cities, the suburbs...they will all crumble just like the rest. But at the same time, you are dealing with populations in the tens of millions...not hundreds or even thousands of millions like in the United States, China, India and Bagladesh.
As well, population growth in all regions put forward is either flat or declining. Canada's largest drawback is that it is near the United States AND is extremely diverse in terms of demographics. History has shown that in times of crisis, tribalism prevails and different ethnic/racial groups will engage in conflict.
Posted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 2:57 pm Post subject: Re: [Location] Where to live post peak
I have read with great interest many of the posts here. They appear to have one flaw in them, the government isn't about to allow itself to lose control. There will of course be some rioting, starvation in the urban areas. Thats a natural thing considering thier inability to grow for themselves. Electricity will be available on a limited bases but the grid should remain intact. The military will grow with veterans from the energy wars leading the way. I do not, however, believe food will dissappear on such a large scale as is spoke of in the posts. All one need do is look back into the past with population numbers before oil and see that it was still growing even without oil. I grant you there will be a contraction of the population, but it should be short term and level off. The main concern I have is the grid. Electricity will still be needed and I don't see fast enough movement to secure it in place.
Just some thoughts.
You cannot post new topics in this forum You cannot reply to topics in this forum You cannot edit your posts in this forum You cannot delete your posts in this forum You cannot vote in polls in this forum