Hello from Niagara Falls, NY

slesh · Tar Sands Joined: Jul 20, 2008 Posts: 43

Massive Infrastructure projects focused on wind in the midwest and solar in the southwest but mainly, hydro all over the place. Terraform the land and build massive resevoirs and dams, utilize synthetic lubricants to keep the bearings turning.
Its no longer a matter of maybe, but it now must be done, starting immediately, the wealth is leaving, the wells are drying up. The energy wars have already started (ala Iraq).
We have a slight window to make the transition now, but the clock is ticking and we haven't even really budged.

Ferretlover · Posted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 1:52 pm Post subject: Re: Hello from Niagara Falls, NY

Welcome, Slesh, to PeakOil.com! Smile

Please read as much as you can (taking breaks as needed-there are a Lot of overwhelming topics here), and don't forget to check the archives.
Please ask questions as the need arises.
_________________
"RRrrruuuunnnn!!!" ~Apocalypto

slesh · Tar Sands Joined: Jul 20, 2008 Posts: 43

Thanks again ferretlover.
For all you folks out there I am Idustrial Electrician. I've been traveling the country for a while now trying to build as many clean coal burners, natural gas and windmills as possible.
We are going to fall short i'm afraid, way short of what our needs are going to be.
Hydro, i've been talking with many in my industry and it appears that if we are to move to electric we are going to have to go through a natural gas phase, maybe 10 to 15 years. Hopefully by that time we can get enough hydro up and running to sustain some of the population. Anyways, good to meet you all and i'll be happy to answer any questions should I actually know the answer.
Good luck to all of you.

Cashmere · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Mar 27, 2008 Posts: 1971

Welcome aboard.

I'd go further. Not only have we not gained ground, but on a per capita basis, we've lost ground.

As for Natural Gas - based on what I've read, natural gas production is barely keeping up with usage, and we're potentially looking at a near term spike that will devastate both home heating/cooking usage and electrical generation.

This chart tells the whole story:

and this one is the epilogue:

It's absolutely insane that we burn this beautiful energy source to spin electric generators.

Natural Gas reserves are harder to pin down than oil, but we know that, when a well starts to go, it goes from producing to nonproducing quickly.

The parabolic nature of the end of the graph tells the story in horrid detail. In a few years, it is very possible that either electricity costs will increase 10 fold or we will be forced to stop using NG as a source of electricity.

Rolling blackouts w/in 10 years on the East Coast is my best guess.
_________________
Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.

slesh · Tar Sands Joined: Jul 20, 2008 Posts: 43

Cashmere, I would agree, except I was there last year when they discovered the second largest NG field in NA by Jacksonhole WY.
The NG burner I helped put up in Provo, UT has the ability to be converted to a coal burner fairly quickly.
I cannot stress enough the emense importance hydro is going to play in years to come. The only reason I came back home to western new york (niagara falls) was for some training on the power vista here and what to expect when building commences on the hydro projects around the country.
My only true fear lies in timing. I can tell anyone upfront we acted to late and for that I am truely sorry. Many of my collegues and I were so busy (10 to 12 hour days 6 to 7 days a week climbing steel) we honestly did not see this coming so soon. I just had a chance to catch my breathe for the last couple of months before I head back out to continue building the power structure.

alpha480v · Posted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 4:03 pm Post subject: Re: Hello from Niagara Falls, NY

Hello and welcome to the forum!

cipi604 · Posted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 5:22 pm Post subject: Re: Hello from Niagara Falls, NY

Slesh, I believe 2011 will be the crossroads year, although I can tell you I was born in Romania and we had controled electricity power downs daily between 1986-1989 and it wasn't such a hell, but we were dirt poor... if you understand what I mean.

slesh · Tar Sands Joined: Jul 20, 2008 Posts: 43

Your up the there by the St. Lawerance Hydro project cipi604, What is Canada's intended response to this crises? Are you guys going to throw in with us in attempt to build the grid up? Let me know what you find out, and thanx for posting.

cipi604 · Posted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 9:16 pm Post subject: Re: Hello from Niagara Falls, NY

In Quebec we have the electricity produced from hidro, no coal no gas, and Hidroquebec is investing $2bn a year in wind and hidro.We actually produce a lot more than we consume so we export it.Regarding hidro, the capacity of the region is enormous so electricity is not a problem.

Natural gas, we had some new big discoveries in the south, and we do business with gazprom, so natural gas is not a problem.

Oil, we don't have enough oil... so we need to buy it... that's a problem. Fortunately, Alberta is also in Canada... so at least we have a small chance on getting the stuff, but not cheap.

Quebec population is 7.6 million.

Cashmere · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Mar 27, 2008 Posts: 1971

Slesh - you're an asset. Please keep posting.

I'm not sure about the NG find.

I am sure about the price of NG.

It's going off the charts, and, I reiterate, I think that we will look back in 20 years and laugh at our improvidence at having burned so much of the stuff simple to keep warm and run the big screen - --

Wait. I need a new, offensive phrase for "idiot box", because young kids won't get that reference.

Hmmm.

Come on people, help me out here - we can coin a new phrase.

Idiot box, boob tube, . . . don't work anymore.
_________________
Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.

slesh · Tar Sands Joined: Jul 20, 2008 Posts: 43

You can relax a little cashmere, Bush and Chenney bought us some time with the strategy in the middle east. Everyone should realize those soldiers over there are buying us time. This is not about terrorism in the least bit. I don't disagree with what they've done, and I cannot in good conscience disagree with them on keeping it from the public and preventing a panic. Most of the American population has been dumbed down to the point of almost walking, brainwashed souls. Life has been good and many, many of them are not going to want it to end. Unfortunately you can only bare light to those who will see it.
I do believe the problem started back in the 50's and 60's when no one would listen to those who were attempting to tell the american gov't and people that a change was needed.
What truely baffles me is the response of the gov't on this crises. Electricity is the way, and they are putting up infrastructure to that effect. The scale of the project is not large enough, not nearly large enough and the rate at which they are doing it is much slower than I expected it to be.

Cashmere · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Mar 27, 2008 Posts: 1971

slesh · Tar Sands Joined: Jul 20, 2008 Posts: 43

No one expects you to hide your feelings on resource "stealing".
But the fact remains the world is a dog eat dog place. If we fall into economic chaos due to our depence on oil without taking any action we find ourselves in a position of weakness. Trust me on this, you do not want to find yourself in that position.
If, in fact you want "the american dream" to continue you will have to learn to accept compromises from both ends of the spectrum.
The "dream" in my very humbled opinion, is the great democratic experiment. No, its not perfect and rife for corruption. But its young and like anything young has its growing pains.
Energy however, is a different sort of beast all together, the choice is clear, either we eat or be eaten. Reality sucks, but it is still Reality.
How it all came about is pretty much a moot point in any event. The reality is that its here or close to here now and without a viable plan in place for transition its going to be a terrible time for many people. I am an independent and I do not care for politics as it is today, but in the end I follow the news on decisions made becuase they do directly affect my life.
I sadly, am also one who wore the uniform at one in my life (88-92)
so I can relate to what these soldiers are going through and I thank them with all of my heart for sacrificing to buy us more time.

Ferretlover · Posted: Mon Jul 21, 2008 3:57 pm Post subject: Re: Hello from Niagara Falls, NY

slesh · Tar Sands Joined: Jul 20, 2008 Posts: 43

I will start a post on natural electrical energy positioning in the world ferretlover. And I know, its wrong, but a very long time ago I gave my word of honor to defend an idea, written down on a piece of paper by men much greater in thought then I can ever hope to be, I fully intend to keep that promise to the best of my ability without compromising my personal morals.
In any event I shall search for power sources in NA, Aust./NZ, Canada and SA. I'll post it when I get all the information together.