Joined: Dec 27, 2004 Posts: 12541 Location: zombie horde wonderland
Posted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 3:20 pm Post subject: Re: [Location] Where to live post peak
slesh wrote:
All one need do is look back into the past with population numbers before oil and see that it was still growing even without oil.
Many of us are concerned we won't be able to afford the food that will be available, and/or that we won't be able to get to it. The government is not going to go door to door handing out free food. _________________ No original ideas are contained in this post.
Posted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 3:43 pm Post subject: Re: Best and worst countries to be in
Nicholai wrote:
Best:
1. Norway
2. Finland
3. Canada
4. Siberia
5. New Zealand
When TSHTF will national boundaries really be respected? People seem to assume they will; but given the last few hundred of years of bloody history I doubt it.
Would 60 million Brits barely able to feed themselves (and 1.3 billion Chinese come to that) really be so obliging as to sit at home starving and freezing? How long would it take such people to remove a government that failed to meet its most basic needs?
And if New Zealand, Finland and Norway really are amongst the best places in the world to live PO, can they protect themselves from those less fortunate? If they can't perhaps they should be struck off the "Best" list.
Joined: Jul 02, 2008 Posts: 437 Location: Espinho, Porto, Portugal
Posted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 4:10 pm Post subject: Re: Best and worst countries to be in
Nicholai wrote:
I hope this sums this up.
You sure did. Great insight, thank you. Goes way beyond the common sense.
I suppose a question like this implies your definition of what will happen: powerdown, sustainable development, die-off. But, yeah, I understand what you mean.
Joined: Jun 15, 2007 Posts: 566 Location: St.Albert, AB
Posted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 4:53 pm Post subject: Re: [Location] Where to live post peak
Quote:
When TSHTF will national boundaries really be respected? People seem to assume they will; but given the last few hundred of years of bloody history I doubt it.
For someone who seeks to make a historical reference, you sure neglect to learn your history.
The Finnish-Russian war was one of the most embarrassing battles of the entire Second World War. Here are how the statistics played out.
The Soviet Union had a combined population of 170,000,000 in 1939 compared to Finland's 3 500 000. It took the Soviets almost 6 months to conquer this tiny country. Finland had 250,000 men involved in the battle compared to Soviet's 1 million. The Soviet's had 6,500 tanks, the Finns had 30 tanks. The Soviet's had 3,800 aircraft, the Finns had 80. After the battle, Russia had lost 126,000 dead or missing, 264,000 wounded, 5,600 captured, as well as the loss of 2,200 tanks. The Finns lost 26,000 men, 40,000 wounded and 1,000 captured.
Who says tiny nations such as those in Scandinavia will not put up a fight.
Joined: May 30, 2008 Posts: 221 Location: On the highway, or the water somewhere!
Posted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 5:09 pm Post subject: Re: [Location] Where to live post peak
slesh wrote:
I have read with great interest many of the posts here. They appear to have one flaw in them, the government isn't about to allow itself to lose control. There will of course be some rioting, starvation in the urban areas. Thats a natural thing considering their inability to grow for themselves. Electricity will be available on a limited bases but the grid should remain intact. The military will grow with veterans from the energy wars leading the way. I do not, however, believe food will disappear on such a large scale as is spoke of in the posts. All one need do is look back into the past with population numbers before oil and see that it was still growing even without oil. I grant you there will be a contraction of the population, but it should be short term and level off. The main concern I have is the grid. Electricity will still be needed and I don't see fast enough movement to secure it in place.
Just some thoughts.
some facts worth considering...
Government of any size needs energy...the number of people deciding to opt out of that control might be as large as their motives will be varied, but the grid is absolutely vulnerable and will be among the first casualties of disorder.
7 men with 7 small explosives can shut down the national grid in 1 minute... repairing it might not ever be feasable... ( think war lords)
Our government which has not dealt with internal anarchists in a long time has forgotten too much of build to defend... even the latest plans for a new grid for wind distribution have 3 common points east to west, three men with 3 small charges etc....
best plan to self govern and hope for a chance to salvage a larger government of freely assenting adults..while being prepared to deal with those who will wish to control you and will not be held off by "the government" which will be impotent to stop them.
on another comment 40 miles...... better 80 miles with a multiple of natural water obstacles with controllable crossings..
probably governmental units the size of a state can survive. beyond that with failing transportation and massive secession of small areas... the national government will be as powerful as it is a successful manager of problems...
just one old crazy mans opinions... _________________ Courtesy and Courage, Sincerity and Self-control, Honor and Loyalty...a Code to Live By!
Where is my wooden pitchfork and torch anyway? I may need them for a visit to the castle soon!
Last edited by the48thronin on Sun Jul 20, 2008 5:11 pm; edited 1 time in total
Posted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 5:10 pm Post subject: Re: [Location] Where to live post peak
It ain't easy even for a big dog, to whip a little dog on his own front porch. Having one's home attacked will get the absolute most resistance out of most people. _________________ Local fix-it guy..
Joined: May 30, 2008 Posts: 221 Location: On the highway, or the water somewhere!
Posted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 5:14 pm Post subject: Re: [Location] Where to live post peak
patience wrote:
It ain't easy even for a big dog, to whip a little dog on his own front porch. Having one's home attacked will get the absolute most resistance out of most people.
Your sentiment is certainly true.
The size of the front porch you will feel COMPELLED to defend is what is possibly important to decide.
duty honor country...... in that order for a reason. _________________ Courtesy and Courage, Sincerity and Self-control, Honor and Loyalty...a Code to Live By!
Where is my wooden pitchfork and torch anyway? I may need them for a visit to the castle soon!
Posted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 5:47 pm Post subject: Re: [Location] Where to live post peak
Nicholai wrote:
Quote:
When TSHTF will national boundaries really be respected? People seem to assume they will; but given the last few hundred of years of bloody history I doubt it.
For someone who seeks to make a historical reference, you sure neglect to learn your history.
The Finnish-Russian war was one of the most embarrassing battles of the entire Second World War. Here are how the statistics played out.
The Soviet Union had a combined population of 170,000,000 in 1939 compared to Finland's 3 500 000. It took the Soviets almost 6 months to conquer this tiny country. Finland had 250,000 men involved in the battle compared to Soviet's 1 million. The Soviet's had 6,500 tanks, the Finns had 30 tanks. The Soviet's had 3,800 aircraft, the Finns had 80. After the battle, Russia had lost 126,000 dead or missing, 264,000 wounded, 5,600 captured, as well as the loss of 2,200 tanks. The Finns lost 26,000 men, 40,000 wounded and 1,000 captured.
Who says tiny nations such as those in Scandinavia will not put up a fight.
OK, a point worth making.
But we're talking about a desperate scenario where nuclear powers (UK and China), and others, have little or nothing to lose. If things were so bad I would expect extremist govts to be in power.
It has been estimated that England has 9 million more people than it could feed, at a subsistence level, on the land available. 9 million is not far off the total combined population of Norway and Finland. Would the government do nothing and see the country descend into civil war?
Posted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 7:01 pm Post subject: Re: [Location] Where to live post peak
the48thronin wrote:
slesh wrote:
I have read with great interest many of the posts here. They appear to have one flaw in them, the government isn't about to allow itself to lose control. There will of course be some rioting, starvation in the urban areas. Thats a natural thing considering their inability to grow for themselves. Electricity will be available on a limited bases but the grid should remain intact. The military will grow with veterans from the energy wars leading the way. I do not, however, believe food will disappear on such a large scale as is spoke of in the posts. All one need do is look back into the past with population numbers before oil and see that it was still growing even without oil. I grant you there will be a contraction of the population, but it should be short term and level off. The main concern I have is the grid. Electricity will still be needed and I don't see fast enough movement to secure it in place.
Just some thoughts.
some facts worth considering...
Government of any size needs energy...the number of people deciding to opt out of that control might be as large as their motives will be varied, but the grid is absolutely vulnerable and will be among the first casualties of disorder.
7 men with 7 small explosives can shut down the national grid in 1 minute... repairing it might not ever be feasable... ( think war lords)
Our government which has not dealt with internal anarchists in a long time has forgotten too much of build to defend... even the latest plans for a new grid for wind distribution have 3 common points east to west, three men with 3 small charges etc.... best plan to self govern and hope for a chance to salvage a larger government of freely assenting adults..while being prepared to deal with those who will wish to control you and will not be held off by "the government" which will be impotent to stop them.
on another comment 40 miles...... better 80 miles with a multiple of natural water obstacles with controllable crossings.. probably governmental units the size of a state can survive. beyond that with failing transportation and massive secession of small areas... the national government will be as powerful as it is a successful manager of problems...
just one old crazy mans opinions...
Communications won't be affected as great as you have been led to believe, I helped bring the NCC Gateway system for military use on line. I do however, concede there will be pockets, potentially many of them that resist gov't interaction. In any event, I am looking for an area that is already preparing to go to electric emergency vehicles and a sound plan for potential civil unrest should it breakout and spill over towards such a community.
The key for me is to find like minded individuals that can continue to contribute to such a place or be taught to be a productive member of such a community.
Joined: May 30, 2008 Posts: 221 Location: On the highway, or the water somewhere!
Posted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 7:50 pm Post subject: Re: [Location] Where to live post peak
slesh wrote:
Communications won't be affected as great as you have been led to believe, I helped bring the NCC Gateway system for military use on line. I do however, concede there will be pockets, potentially many of them that resist gov't interaction. In any event, I am looking for an area that is already preparing to go to electric emergency vehicles and a sound plan for potential civil unrest should it breakout and spill over towards such a community.
The key for me is to find like minded individuals that can continue to contribute to such a place or be taught to be a productive member of such a community.
communication... think fuel, think transportation. ( the internet yet?)
stretch your immagination... cities in anarchy and riots, now look at the national defense highway network and realize the politicians turned it into the "make my friends rich by connecting their land to the system"... choke points everywhere.. piplines....above ground installations are everywhere?
aviation...think fuel use
now insert the phrase local control by insurgents and mobs and warlord of gangs in your thinking...
Who is gonna make that government communications control the populas.... the U N troops? The U S Military? Big Brother screens in every city square?
Government exercise of power is an exercise of energy use... your own post "comunity...electric vehicles" you seem to think it will be a discomforting decline in availability... I think it will be a catastrophic loss of....(fill in the blank depending on what you have locally)
like I said just the musings of a crazy old man who relocated 25 years ago to the place I am willing to be when TSHTF
ready...no no one is...
thought it out? some
planned to get my people through it? as much as possible in the circumstances
working to prevent total collapse instead only by speaking out
good luck using electric vehicles...... excuse me while I go check the tack room............ us old people get confused easily. (Did I remember to ........ ( fill in the necessary supply storage ?)
Food? hint if the trucks stop bringing food to your town, you'll be eating rats or each other in 2 weeks... those not out searching for food with weapons ready to take it, will be those sitting on stockpiles or small homesteads trying in vain to defend thier stockpiles from the marauding hords... you did see the aftermath of Katrina right... policemen leading gangs and shooting for loot... _________________ Courtesy and Courage, Sincerity and Self-control, Honor and Loyalty...a Code to Live By!
Where is my wooden pitchfork and torch anyway? I may need them for a visit to the castle soon!
Posted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 9:02 pm Post subject: Re: Best and worst countries to be in
energycity wrote:
Cashmere wrote:
I agree with this list.
My worst countries to be in, in order:
1. Japan
2. UK
3. NZ
After that, there are too many regional variations.
Do you mean the worst out of a list of rich countries? Coz as hideous as things will be in the UK I can't say I'd fancy escaping to Zimbabwe, Bangladesh, Burkina Faso ... [etc]
Just noticed that 2 of the 3 I mentioned are landlocked ... I'd prefer access to the sea so that rules out most of the remaining 41 landlocked countries for me.
Of course!
Certainly there is no thought that any place in Africa would be a good place to be.
Being a white person in Africa in 10 years will be like having a "kick me" sign taped to your back, except it will be a "kill me" sign.
The many posters in NZ think they are in good shape - I think they are in horrible shape. Same with Japan.
When the crap hits the fan fully and the world economy has collapsed, a country like NZ is royally screwed.
Yeah yeah, I know, you live there and it's the greatest place on earth and I'm wrong and I'll see. Yah yah, I get it.
Here's the wiki entry on NZ:
Quote:
New Zealand is a country heavily dependent on trade, particularly in agricultural products. Exports account for around 24% of its output,[30] which is a relatively high figure (it is around 50% for many smaller European countries).[ii] This makes New Zealand particularly vulnerable to international commodity prices and global economic slowdowns. Its principal export industries are agriculture, horticulture, fishing and forestry. These make up about half of the country's exports. Its major export partners are Australia 20.5%, US 13.1%, Japan 10.3%, China 5.4%, UK 4.9% (2006).[30]
Tourism plays a significant role in New Zealand's economy. Tourism contributes $12.8 billion (or 8.9%) to New Zealand’s total GDP and supports nearly 200,000 full-time equivalent jobs (9.9% of the total workforce in New Zealand).[31] Tourists to New Zealand are expected to increase at a rate of 4% annually up to 2013.[31]
So this is the path NZ is on . . .
1. World economies begin to collapse.
2. Tourism in NZ drops toward zero, for an immediate reduction of almost 10% GDP.
3. Native NG goes into steep decline, driving energy prices through the roof.
4. Exportation of food becomes uneconomical because of energy costs, and internal economic problems become dramatically worse.
5. New Zealand is forced to "go local".
6. Ever increasing oil costs and NG costs drive food prices through the roof.
7. Attempts to increase domestic agriculture fail for want of infrastructure not based on oil - oil base agriculture becomes particularly expensive.
8. At 8% decline rate, world oil production is halved in 9 years, and NZ is unable to import any substantial oil at any price.
9. The lack of arable land and domestic energy supplies leads to mass starvation. The ocean is a prison wall, not a protective fence.
10. Massive violence and die off.
EDIT -
By the way, I think you have a lovely country with lovely people. I thought about trying to see about getting in once. But this is not about how nice a place is.
Japan seems nice enough, but they are going to be in big heap o trouble when they go hat in hand to the Chinese.
Maybe they'll have the beg session in Nanking. _________________ Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
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