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no_name
Tar Sands
Joined: May 08, 2006
Posts: 43
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 Posted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 8:29 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Season |
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Heres a radar showing the gap between cuba and the yucatan, if the storm can squeeze through the gap we may see an eye open up soon.
Radar
And another storm for next week maybe?
A VIGOROUS AND WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN
AFRICA A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF DAKAR SENEGAL. THIS SYSTEM HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE VERY QUICKLY AFTER IT
EMERGES INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY. |
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f2tornado
Tar Sands
Joined: Jun 21, 2008
Posts: 51
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| Posted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 8:36 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Season |
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I'm no tropics expert but am a meteorologist. The center appears to have reformed north of previous. Eye appears to be forming east of Cozumel. Satellite presentation suggests some solid strengthening of the system tonight. This thing may just brush the Yucatan and continue gathering strength in the west GoMex. New model guidance has shifted west GoMex landfall further north and I would not be suprised if the track gets nudged even further north. Possible Texas landfall in 72 hours. People simply do not have much time to prepare. If I lived in the Brownsville to Corpus area I'd be getting my plywood now. Houston to Corpus should check in the morning to see if the track indeed has shifted north. Off shore oil and gas evacuation decisions will need to be made within 36 hours.
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Eli
Fusion
Joined: Jun 18, 2005
Posts: 3978
Location: In a van down by the river
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| Posted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 8:43 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Season |
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They have to be shutting everything in by now out in the Gulf.
Time to bug out. |
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Peleg
Heavy Crude
Joined: May 20, 2008
Posts: 391
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| Posted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 8:55 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Season |
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| no_name wrote: | Heres a radar showing the gap between cuba and the yucatan, if the storm can squeeze through the gap we may see an eye open up soon.
Radar
And another storm for next week maybe?
A VIGOROUS AND WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN
AFRICA A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF DAKAR SENEGAL. THIS SYSTEM HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE VERY QUICKLY AFTER IT
EMERGES INTO THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY. |
Go over to wunderground.com and look and the Caribbean infrared loop. It's clear as day the whole thing is going NNW through the straight. Somebody could end up losing their job over this. If it does go off big and to the north NOAA is going to get toasted in the press and eventually in the Senate hearings that follow. |
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Peleg
Heavy Crude
Joined: May 20, 2008
Posts: 391
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| Posted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 9:01 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Season |
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| Hogan wrote: | Are you people tracking this storm? It looks like it might be heading straight for Louisiana.
NOAA link |
I'm literally flabbergasted and almost blushing that there is so little MSM coverage on TS Dolly and the thing looks to be heading much more NNW than any of the model runs predict. Anyone near to the official info-stream on this willing to add some insight?
MSNBC still does not have a story on TS Dolly. 
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/3032128/
Last edited by Peleg on Sun Jul 20, 2008 9:04 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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eastbay
Moderator
Joined: Dec 18, 2004
Posts: 4963
Location: One Mile From the Columbia River
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| Posted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 9:01 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Season |
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I think so too. But if you look right away at the NOAA NHC website you can see the data is from 8 hours ago. They may be adjusting the trajectory with the next reports.
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Got Dharma?
Everything is Impermanent. Shakyamuni Buddha |
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no_name
Tar Sands
Joined: May 08, 2006
Posts: 43
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| Posted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 9:03 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Season |
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| Peleg wrote: | | Hogan wrote: | Are you people tracking this storm? It looks like it might be heading straight for Louisiana.
NOAA link |
I'm literally flabbergasted and almost blushing that there is so little MSM coverage on TS Dolly and the thing looks to be heading much more NNW than any of the model runs predict. Anyone near to the official info-stream on this willing to add some insight? |
Check this thread---storm2k has a good few mets on it
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&t=101807&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=4620 |
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Peleg
Heavy Crude
Joined: May 20, 2008
Posts: 391
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| Posted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 9:19 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Season |
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Thanks no-name,
That looks like a nice forum. I'll visit there often. Someone earlier mentioned that NHC was not forecasting hurricane strength. Well now it is,
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200804.html
The models are lagging the events in real time. Would any of you old salts be surprised if we don't see cat 2 coming into the forecast by tomorrow afternoon?
Unless there is something that is going to jog it back to the west later in the week, we are going to see 'Hello Dolly!' as a headline all over the place by tomorrow's evening news.
It is too bad these things are so destructive because it is one of the most amazing natural events.
Last edited by Peleg on Sun Jul 20, 2008 9:23 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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TonisD
Heavy Crude
Joined: Jun 12, 2007
Posts: 168
Location: Estonia
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| Posted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 9:21 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Season |
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Atleast for me it seems quite clear: MSM are downplaying it for today/tomorrow as to not stop the "oil plunge". Considering weather buffs at Storm2k are talking about a possible hit to Lousiana....
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eastbay
Moderator
Joined: Dec 18, 2004
Posts: 4963
Location: One Mile From the Columbia River
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| Posted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 9:21 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Season |
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Now the NHC shows it most likely smashing into Brownsville as an 'H'. A bit more north than before.
_________________
Got Dharma?
Everything is Impermanent. Shakyamuni Buddha |
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Shannymara
Moderator
Joined: Oct 04, 2004
Posts: 5701
Location: Body in OK, Heart in TX
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| Posted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 9:23 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Season |
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Dang, some of y'all are so quick to judge and bash the NHC. Ouch. I'm glad I got into research meteorology instead of forecasting.
Anyway, here's the 11PM Dolly NHC discussion:
| Quote: | DATA FROM A NOAA P3 AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT DOLLY HAS NOT BECOME ANY
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING. INDEED...THE SYSTEM PROBABLY
DOESN'T HAVE A CLOSED SURFACE CENTER RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER...DOLLY IS
MAINTAINING VIGOROUS CONVECTION AND THE STRONGEST WINDS...AS
ESTIMATED BY THE SFMR...HAVE INCREASED TO 45 KT. SINCE DOLLY COULD
REGENERATE A CENTER AT ANY TIME...NO GOOD WOULD BE SERVED BY
HANGING ON A TECHNICALITY.
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 305/12. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A TEMPORARY
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...PERHAPS DUE TO THE UPPER LOW TO THE
WEST OF DOLLY MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD...ENHANCING THE DEEP LAYER
EASTERLIES. DOLLY SHOULD CONTINUE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST SOUTH
OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER TEXAS. BY 72 HOURS...THIS RIDGE
WEAKENS...AND SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLIGHT NORTHWARD TURN IN
THE WESTERN GULF. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS MORE OF A STRAIGHT
LINE TRACK BUT IS STILL VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF A VERY
TIGHTLY PACKED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW MAY BE KEEPING DOLLY FROM
ORGANIZING FOR NOW...BUT THIS SHOULD RAPIDLY BECOME A NON-FACTOR.
ONCE THE SYSTEM ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...ALL GLOBAL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING...WITH A
LARGE ANTICYCLONE ALOFT...NO SHEAR...AND WARM GULF WATERS. THE
QUANTITATIVE GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST BLENDS THE LGEM...SHIPS...AND GFDL. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THERE WILL BE SOME DISRUPTION OF THE SYSTEM
OVER THE YUCATAN...WHICH COULD BE AVOIDED IF A CENTER REFORMS TO
THE NORTH WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION. INTERESTS IN THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DOLLY. |
NHC Dolly page
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dohboi
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Dec 05, 2005
Posts: 1469
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| Posted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 9:24 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Season |
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It looks like Dolly has some fairly warm water it's going to be passing over, especially if it drifts to the northern side of its range. This thing could strengthen suddenly before making landfall.
Gulf Water Temperatures |
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Peleg
Heavy Crude
Joined: May 20, 2008
Posts: 391
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| Posted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 9:27 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Season |
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| eastbay wrote: | | Now the NHC shows it most likely smashing into Brownsville as an 'H'. A bit more north than before. |
They are still insisting the center is going to go over the Yucatan, and not visible, infrared, even radar confirms that. What the h*** is going on! |
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no_name
Tar Sands
Joined: May 08, 2006
Posts: 43
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| Posted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 9:28 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Season |
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..
Last edited by no_name on Sun Jul 20, 2008 9:30 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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Peleg
Heavy Crude
Joined: May 20, 2008
Posts: 391
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| Posted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 9:32 pm Post subject: Re: 2008 Hurricane/Typhoon/Cyclone Season |
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| Shannymara wrote: | Dang, some of y'all are so quick to judge and bash the NHC. Ouch. I'm glad I got into research meteorology instead of forecasting.
Anyway, here's the 11PM Dolly NHC discussion:
| Quote: | DATA FROM A NOAA P3 AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT DOLLY HAS NOT BECOME ANY
BETTER ORGANIZED THIS EVENING. INDEED...THE SYSTEM PROBABLY
DOESN'T HAVE A CLOSED SURFACE CENTER RIGHT NOW. HOWEVER...DOLLY IS
MAINTAINING VIGOROUS CONVECTION AND THE STRONGEST WINDS...AS
ESTIMATED BY THE SFMR...HAVE INCREASED TO 45 KT. SINCE DOLLY COULD
REGENERATE A CENTER AT ANY TIME...NO GOOD WOULD BE SERVED BY
HANGING ON A TECHNICALITY.
THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 305/12. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A TEMPORARY
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED...PERHAPS DUE TO THE UPPER LOW TO THE
WEST OF DOLLY MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD...ENHANCING THE DEEP LAYER
EASTERLIES. DOLLY SHOULD CONTINUE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST SOUTH
OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER TEXAS. BY 72 HOURS...THIS RIDGE
WEAKENS...AND SOME OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A SLIGHT NORTHWARD TURN IN
THE WESTERN GULF. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS MORE OF A STRAIGHT
LINE TRACK BUT IS STILL VERY CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS OF A VERY
TIGHTLY PACKED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW MAY BE KEEPING DOLLY FROM
ORGANIZING FOR NOW...BUT THIS SHOULD RAPIDLY BECOME A NON-FACTOR.
ONCE THE SYSTEM ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...ALL GLOBAL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING...WITH A
LARGE ANTICYCLONE ALOFT...NO SHEAR...AND WARM GULF WATERS. THE
QUANTITATIVE GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST BLENDS THE LGEM...SHIPS...AND GFDL. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THERE WILL BE SOME DISRUPTION OF THE SYSTEM
OVER THE YUCATAN...WHICH COULD BE AVOIDED IF A CENTER REFORMS TO
THE NORTH WITHIN THE DEEP CONVECTION. INTERESTS IN THE WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DOLLY. |
NHC Dolly page |
The folks at the NHC are probably the very best in the world at what they do, but here we seem to have a case that is falling between the cracks. They are doing what seems best, but even your quote says they do not know if a center might reform north of the track. That needs to be on the news asap because folks have to get ready.
I do not think it is going to turn out as they anticipate right now and we have already documented here that the forecast keeps changing almost every 8 hours.
Can I also say at this point that it is an honor to be discussing this all with folks who get the big picture. This storm has the potential to pose a risk to the US economy that will have political ramifications as well. With the high volatility in oil lately the wrong message at the right time could see a $20 one day rise in oil prices. The lingering effects could see $4.80 national gas, especially is supply of both oil and gasline get shut in. But I suppose those are things to talk about if the dark side of the present risk materializes, which it has not as of yet. |
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