2008 Hurricane / Typhoon / Cyclone Season

Shannymara · Master Joined: Oct 04, 2004 Posts: 5392 Location: Oklahoma

Dang, some of y'all are so quick to judge and bash the NHC. Ouch. I'm glad I got into research meteorology instead of forecasting.

Anyway, here's the 11PM Dolly NHC discussion:

dohboi · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Dec 05, 2005 Posts: 1258

It looks like Dolly has some fairly warm water it's going to be passing over, especially if it drifts to the northern side of its range. This thing could strengthen suddenly before making landfall.

Gulf Water Temperatures

Peleg · Heavy Crude Joined: May 20, 2008 Posts: 391

no_name · Tar Sands Joined: May 08, 2006 Posts: 43

Hogan · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Oct 25, 2004 Posts: 1298

Hogan · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Oct 25, 2004 Posts: 1298

Peleg · Heavy Crude Joined: May 20, 2008 Posts: 391

Hogan · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Oct 25, 2004 Posts: 1298

I still say it's going to hit Louisiana. I hope I'm wrong.

Shannymara · Master Joined: Oct 04, 2004 Posts: 5392 Location: Oklahoma

Eli

The NHC has to put the data together over time. They gather it all come up with the ideas and then put it out as a forecast.

From the moment they put their forecast out the storm can change, you can bet these guys are looking at this thing and are saying damn that aint good.

Hogan · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Oct 25, 2004 Posts: 1298

The conversation on that hurricane forum has turned more doomerish quite quickly. They are now saying that it might completely miss hitting the Yucatan, meaning it will strengthen into a much stronger storm in the GOM. And they are also saying that the storm appears to be taking a more northerly track now. Everyone had better pray it doesn't hit Louisiana or the Eastern coast of Texas.

roccman

HEADER_RACK · Heavy Crude Joined: Feb 15, 2007 Posts: 482

If a hurricane knocks out WD-143. You just lost close to 20% of GOM production with that one platform.
_________________
There will come a day when we would have wished to do a little evil for a greater good.

Hogan · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Oct 25, 2004 Posts: 1298

It looks like the storm is growing in size after looking at that last satellite update.

NOAA link

f2tornado · Tar Sands Joined: Jun 21, 2008 Posts: 51

The National Weather Service and its tenticle agencies like the NHC value consistency and therefore tend to make incremental changes to a forecast. This is a great strategy until you get thrown a curve ball which happens frequently enough in meteorology and appears to be the case here. As a forecaster myself I can tell you how difficult it can be to go against a well clustered forecast model solution. A hero if you do and the forecast pans out, off to the guillotine if you go against the grain and miss. I do think forecasters in general put too much faith in guidance packages. I've always chuckled at how the forecast models can be lousy for a 24 hour forecast yet some climate model shows the earth warming x-degrees in 100 years. You always get the mean or worst case scenario noted in the media but you rarely see the spread or potential margin of error. At least with hurricane tracks you get the cone of uncertainty based on statistcal average forecast error but even here some cases will be statistical anomolies then some member of Congress will ultimately demand an investigation.

What concerns me with this storm is its potential to really ramp up in the GoMex. The storm looks to bounce off the left upright of the Yucatan and make the field goal only there is no net to stop this ball from heading into the stands. Upper-air conditions are about as favorable as they get for strengthening. There is simply not much time for folks to prepare/evacuate on land or on oil platforms. We all saw what happened in Houston when Rita was aiming for it. There will be far less time with this one wherever it goes. Texas hasn't had a hard hit from a hurricane in many years. I suspect even after Katrina/Rita there will be some complacency there which further reduces prep time. The 11AM NHC forecast update will be the most critical. By this time the agency will have had time to ponder the 0600 and 1200 UTC forecast model output along with real world obs and put out the make or break forecast. This will give the target area perhaps 48 to 60 hours to make decisions. I still think this thing hits well south of Houston... perhaps Corpus. Pretty much barren land between Corpus and Brownville so this area would be the ideal target for minimizing economic loss.