Let's get real about renewable energy...a survivalists view

allenwrench · Intermediate Crude Joined: Apr 23, 2008 Posts: 728

Let's get real about renewable energy...a survivalists view

I marvel at some of the cornucopian's outlooks for our future.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cornucopian

Recently the cornucopians are putting their hopes in keeping the jets flying on algae oil?

Well, who knows??

I am not like the atheists that claim they know everything under the sun...I am just a lowly agnostic that in the end does not know.

But the cornucopians still have a way to go with algae powered jets. When the cornucopians can pave roads and make roofing shingles out of corn instead of asphalt and make tires out of sewage sludge instead of crude - maybe their time will have arrived.

Whether one is an intellectual, cornucopian or survivalist, they all have to live in the future to some extent with their thoughts.

The difference between a survivalist and the other two is this.

The intellectuals can keep their mind fixated on the future and fantasy as long as they want. They have no reckoning in the present. Their currency of trade is in 'thought' and not in practical application.

The survivalist on the other hand must come back to the present to prepare for and implement via 'practical application' what his future needs will be. As futurists we try to anticipate future events and the direction the world is headed in and as survivalists we try to prepare for those circumstances.

So I'd suggest to Al Gore or any politician that takes up the renewable energy challenge to open up your eyes to truth of 'what is,' develop a survivalists mentality and not get lost in the fantasy of 'wishful thinking' with how you hope things to be.

But being truthful is lofty goal in and of itself for politicians, irrespective of changing our entire world when it comes to powering it.

The mantra of the ego based, power hungry politician is; "Give me power for a day and I hope the roof waits to falls in on the next guy and the music wont stop on my presidency." Everything they do while in office is aimed not at truth and what is best for our country, but at spin, lies and making themselves look good in the eye of the voters.

All you political knuckleheads that go to these rallies to kiss the asses of your political deities - pin them down on 'Peak Oil' and see what they say. What you will get is NOTHING from them. They could not utter the words Peak Oil if their life depended on it. So it goes with truth and politicians - they do not mix.

Al Gores proposed a challenge to both political candidates to switch all electric generation in the US from fossil fuels to renewables within 10 years. Mr. Gore is way off mark with what we will need for future energy generation in the US.

He has not addressed a realistic view of the problem. He needs to increase his goal to a minimum of 300% to 400% of our current electric generation capacity. Then he may be approaching what America will really need.

And I am conservative in my outlook. The actual number may be closer to 500% to 600% of our current capacity when we factor in the IF'S, AND'S & BUT'S.

In the US, 93.2% of our electric comes from nonrenewable, fossil burning or greenhouse gas producing methods.

If we are looking to hydroelectric and renewable sources, 4.46% of our electric comes from hydroelectric and 2.34% comes from renewable energy production.

Out of this 2.34% of renewable sources, an undisclosed portion still contributes to global warming despite its prestige of being a 'renewable energy source' as it involves the burning of wood, black liquor, wood waste, municipal solid waste, landfill gas, sludge waste, tires, agriculture byproducts and biomass.

Only a fraction of the 2.34% of renewable electric energy that is produced comes from geothermal, solar thermal, photovoltaic energy, and wind. These are the areas that Gore wishes to expand.

http://www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/epa/epates.html

Electricity is where mankind will turn to for power requirements when all fossil fuels as well as uranium dry up in the near future.

We can see that humans love affair with fossil fuels will look like a blip on the screen of humans historical record on earth.

from:LATOC

If you don't know what peak oil has to say about our world and don't want to read the rest of my post, then at least check out:

http://www.energybulletin.net/primer

1) When everyone switches to electric cars and plug into the grid, the demand for electricity will go up tremendously.

2) Homes that use natural gas, propane, heating oil will switch to electricity as the fossil fuels will dry up. The highest demand areas such as heating our homes, heating water and cooking are areas that can't be done on practical basis with solar in many parts of the country

Sure if you life in CA or AZ you got some hope with the solar hot water. Maybe the NE can also get some hot water in the hot humid summers. But the goal of this massive energy change is to make it as seamless as possible. Proper planning is the difference between part time and full time power. Proper planning is the difference between less deaths versus massive deaths.

http://dieoff.org/

3) All trucks, trains and airplanes will have to find new power sources. Trains can switch to steam, electric or electromagnet. Truck may have to be smaller and run on electric or bio fuels. Farm equipment can be powered by bio fuels.

But all these bio fuels take away from our food production. We can see that adding 5% of corn ethanol does to the food picture - and we still use 95% gasoline. What will happen to food when we are 0% gas and 0% diesel and 100% bio fuels and ethanol?

Airlines? My prediction is they will eventually shut down. Although one commentator on CNBC puts her hopes in running planes on algae oil. Again time will tell. But as a survivalist I must go with 'what is' and not fantasy of the cornucopians.

In any case, trains, especially electric trains will be a big area of transport in our future both for products, food and people when airlines cease operate.

4) Population increase. More people = more demands for electric. When people feel bad they look for diversions from pain. If they can't get drugged up with alcohol or drugs, they also like some genital situation to escape a hellish life.

More sex = more people.

I don't see the pop trend changing any time soon unless people can't get food and starve or freeze from lack of heat.

5) Global warming - hotter people demand more electric for A/C.

6) Solar and wind are good supplemental power sources but crappy uninterrupted power sources. One person said that on average a wind farm that is spread out will yield power about 33% of the time, as the wind is blowing on average in some part of a large geographic area.

So, to make up for when the wind does not blow, we will need much larger scales of wind generation than we anticipate now. We get brownouts even with full capacity and fip the switch, fossil fueled convenience.

Exporting the power is another problem. We can make electricity in high wind areas, but will lose much of it if we have to export the wind generated electric long distances to the big cities.

Solar only works for a few hours a day in ideal circumstances...and does not work much at all if the sun is not out. Our countries power needs are 24 hours.
The sorry thing about electricity is it cannot be easily stored. (We can store the 'energy' of electricity by pumping water via electric pumps uphill and having the water drain back downhill to power a turbine at a later time.)

7) The US will go back to being a manufacturing nation and have to cut it's addiction to cheap Chinese and other foreign goods. All these cargo tankers run on diesel. So, as we cut back on shipping, local manufacturing will return more so out of design than by desire. More industrial manufacturing = more need for electricity.

Cool

Without energy our country is open for takeover ... no jets...no tanks...no transport on the ground or in the air. Luckily we will still have nuclear powered submarines and aircraft carriers as long as the uranium holds out. But the jets on the flattop all use jet fuel. All the supplies for those subs and carriers petroleum dependent. Will our military be as successful as it is today when it is all electric? I don't know, but I do know an all electric military will drain the grids capacity even further.

As a survivalist I cannot afford to live in dream land as the mind manacled intellectuals and cornucopians do, I don't pretend to have a crystal ball and be able to predict the future. I can only prepare for 'possibilities' of what are to come.

Intellectuals and cornucopians put all their faith in predicting an unknown future that is based on lofty hopes, dreams and wishful thinking. Whereas the successful survivalist puts their hopes and dreams in preparing for an uncertain future and knows that 'wishful thinking' does not go far in life or death situations.

In Richard Heinberg's book 'Power-Down' he contrasts the survivalist mentality with that of the preservationist.

The wiki on this topic:

"A survivalist is a person who anticipates and prepares for a future disruption in local, regional or worldwide social or political order."

"Preservationism...as a term distinguishing between survivalist groups who wish merely to survive a collapse of civilization, and communities who wish to preserve as much of human culture as is possible in the event of collapse."

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivalist
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Preservationist

Mr. Heinberg talked about a gene bank founded by Nikolai Vavilov in Russia and the dedicated preservationists that guarded the seed and gene pool. He went on to say how 9 of the scientists and workers starved to death because they refused to eat the seeds and tubers in the gene bank.

Now, I don't know if a few seeds or tubers would have made much difference in their surviving. But I can say a survivalist would have eaten the first one to die. While their efforts were most admirable, we can say their life was not an enviable one for us to emulate. And in the end they failed miserably at self preservation and survival.

But Mr. Heinberg brings up a good point - balancing the two areas of survival with preservation. For we may well survive, but if we do not preserve a semblance of a somewhat livable world to survive in, we may not wish to survive in what remains.

In summation:

Renewables are our future.

Renewable are not a seamless and fungible replicant for fossil fuels.

Renewables do not replace the petrochemical uses of crude oil.

Renewables do not replace the specialized uses of natural gas in industry or food production.

Renewables will be our future by design and not by desire.

But they are the default choice for our furture power needs as ALL fossil fuels and nuclear energy source will be depleted in the near future.

The more realistic we are with our evaluation of the conversion to renewable energy, the less deaths will occur from fantasizing about the improbable future that the intellectuals and cornucopians have dreamed up.

Cashmere · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Mar 27, 2008 Posts: 1500

Slow morning?
_________________
Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.

cipi604

allenwrench I couldn't agree more with what you have to say, but ... the decisions are already made, and that is war not renewables.

Hawkcreek · Expert Joined: Aug 15, 2004 Posts: 956

If you are a true survivalist, you must be living in a off-grid homestead like mine by now. You know, as I do, that you can be comfortable and happy using only about 10 % of the electrical power that most on-grid households use.
You have probably managed to set up your off-grid system for less than the idiots spend for a SUV. You probably know enough to have a good well with a PV powered pump.

So a couple of questions come to mind.
So where does the requirement for 4-600 percent more electrical power come from?
Why are you such a doomer?
_________________
"It don't make no sense that common sense don't make no sense no more"
John Prine

cipi604

Hawkcreek if you move transportation from oil to electricity, you have to increase the electric-energy production. I'm not sure about the numbers, but 4-600% sounds logical.

Hawkcreek · Expert Joined: Aug 15, 2004 Posts: 956

Ok Cip, I see that a tapering of energy from diesel to electric would be necessary, but I do not believe that there would need to be a one-for-one substitution in BTU value.
I don't see the 400-600 percent thing. You could cut the electricity needs of households by 50 % (should be easy in my opinion), and probably cut transportation fuel requirements by an equal amount over the next 10-15 years just by improving mileage and switching over to plug-in hybrids.
I may have a biased view because we live so well on so little electricity, but I know how easy and cheap it is to do so.
How can everyone talk so easily about a fast crash before we even start to take up the slack of 50% waste in every part of our lives.
_________________
"It don't make no sense that common sense don't make no sense no more"
John Prine

cipi604

Those plug-in hibrids , you have to build them first. We don't have too many around.The same thing with batteries and such technology.
You can't cut electricity needs of households by 50 % when you move from oil-heating to electricity-heating, actually it's the opposite.

Kingcoal

Good dose of doomer porn there, thanks. You are correct, we are screwed. The problem does not lie on whether we can move to 100% renewable sources for our electric generation. We can do it, it's possible with present technology. The real question is will we. Face it, we are a bunch of retarded whiners. We can't even build any huge scale projects when oil is dirt cheap, how are we ever going to do it with expensive oil?

The move to renewables is inevitable. We used to live in a renewable world and we will return to that level of existence. The question is are we going to use our technology intelligently and work towards the goal of preserving our economy and way of life. Based on the past, it don't look good.
_________________
"That's the problem with mercy, kid... It just ain't professional" - Fast Eddie, The Color of Money

Hawkcreek · Expert Joined: Aug 15, 2004 Posts: 956

kevinr · Coal Joined: Jul 01, 2008 Posts: 12

Please explain how we are open for a taken over given these two facts:

1. We have a strategic oil reserve. Not sure any other countries have one.
2. More guns than another other country (maybe the whole world combined).

RedStateGreen

Ludi

Mominator · Heavy Crude Joined: Jun 26, 2008 Posts: 106 Location: FL

Excellent post.
The only part I didn't get was the "open for takeover" line.
_________________
~Laura

"If you weren't smart enough to plan ahead then Doom on you!" ~Dodo bird

Hawkcreek · Expert Joined: Aug 15, 2004 Posts: 956

Ludi