Joined: Jun 13, 2007 Posts: 3356 Location: Minniesotuh
Posted: Mon Jul 21, 2008 8:19 pm Post subject: Re: Planning for the avian flu pandemic.
Just tossing this into the mix: In a few years, with the loss of air travel, and limited resources for other forms of travel, the speed of spread might be slowed down. Does that sound logical?
Does anyone here know anyone who might be involved on an Outbreak Team? _________________ "RRrrruuuunnnn!!!" ~Apocalypto
Joined: May 20, 2008 Posts: 284 Location: Tennessee
Posted: Mon Jul 21, 2008 8:26 pm Post subject: Re: Planning for the avian flu pandemic.
Sounds like a logical conclusion, but lets hope things have slowed down before the pandemic hits. In my infectious disease magazines that I look through spoke of the flu cases being complicated with secondary infections like MRSA. I see so much MRSA anymore-its a scarey double wamy.
Joined: Jun 13, 2007 Posts: 3356 Location: Minniesotuh
Posted: Mon Jul 21, 2008 8:43 pm Post subject: Re: Planning for the avian flu pandemic.
Just googled "respirators." This site, link[/Grainger , had 603 entries-some in stock now, now "while supplies last." (disclaimer: I have never purchased from that site, and I am not connected with it in anyway). I had no idea there were so many different types.
My great-grandmother died during 1919 flu epedemic; my grandmother, who was 20 at the time, said she was only sick for a few days before she died. _________________ "RRrrruuuunnnn!!!" ~Apocalypto
Posted: Mon Jul 21, 2008 8:55 pm Post subject: Re: Planning for the avian flu pandemic.
BigTex wrote:
The 1918 flu outbreak should be studied by anyone who is seriously interested in what TSHTF scenarios in an industrialized society actually look like.
It's different than you think.
I linked to an excellent free online book about the history and possible future of flu pandemics in the overpopulation thread. Take a look at it if you have a chance.
BTW, a flu pandemic would likely take the young and strong in disproportionate numbers because of the way the virus infects your system. Thus, eating right and being physically fit could be irrelevant to one's survival chances.
The most common sense thing to do today, IMO, is stock up on N95 or N100 respirators, nitrile gloves, hand sanitizer and bleach. Even a rumor of an outbreak and you won't be able to find that stuff anywhere.
Tamiflu is a good idea if you can get it.
A good comfortable set of safety glasses is a good idea too. These are helpful in a variety of unpleasant scenarios.
There is reason to believe that a vaccine could be developed within six months of an outbreak, so I would think that getting through the first few months would be the most critical.
These 50 million dead estimates are silly. There would probably be more than that in India alone.
If the flu triggers the young and healthy, it likely means that it causes a cascading immune reaction, that can be fatal in and of itself. People with mildly suppressed immune systems would fare best in that case. Tamiflu, if I am correct, upgrades your immune system, so it would be unwise to take it for every flu. An idiot doctor gave it to my friend last year and it made her much worse. He admitted it was the drug that was responsible for nearly sending her to the emergency ward. I could have told the nitwit, she has an illness with autoimmune features already, so was a poor candidate, imho.
Joined: Oct 04, 2004 Posts: 5141 Location: Oklahoma
Posted: Mon Jul 21, 2008 9:08 pm Post subject: Re: Planning for the avian flu pandemic.
Ferretlover, my favorite online prep market has N95 masks at $14.95 for a box of 20, in stock. I don't know how that compares to what else is out there right now. PM me if you or anyone wants the link. I'm not affiliated with them in any way but I don't want to keep linking to them here (I've mentioned them in other threads before). _________________ "Every junkie's like a setting sun..." - Neil Young
Posted: Mon Jul 21, 2008 9:25 pm Post subject: Re: Planning for the avian flu pandemic.
There are lots of respirators out on the market. The key is in the cartridges you buy to put in them. You would want to get a hepa filter cartridge with a prefilter. 3m or campo half face resprators are pretty good. Cartridges last only so long and must be replaced. Approx. every 12 hours of use. Meaning 12 hours of constant breathing through the cartridge.
Respirators will only work if they are properly fitted to your face. No beards or goatees. Once on cover the cartridges with your hand and suck in. The respirator should collapse to the face. Then cover the exhast port and blow out. The respirator should expand around the mouth. If it doesn't do either of these you have a poor fit and it's allowing outside air to bypass the cartridges. If you really want to check get some perfume and spray in front of the respirator if you smell it. You need to adjust it.
Just a helpful tip. _________________ There will come a day when we would have wished to do a little evil for a greater good.
Joined: May 20, 2008 Posts: 284 Location: Tennessee
Posted: Mon Jul 21, 2008 9:30 pm Post subject: Re: Planning for the avian flu pandemic.
Your correct threadbear there has been some adverse effects assoc. with Tamiflu-reports I have read in the literature (pediatric) have mostly been assoc. with abnl behavior. Of course this is true with any medication-there's risks/benefits to be assessed.My oldest son came down with the flu and was rx Tamiflu within the first 48 hours and he did really well. If there was a bird flu outbreak and I had a choice of Tamiflu verses being in the back of Wisconsin-Cur's dump truck on my way to the river, I'll take my chances with the Tamiflu-but that is just my personal choice.
Joined: Sep 16, 2007 Posts: 1132 Location: Oklahoma City, USA
Posted: Mon Jul 21, 2008 9:47 pm Post subject: Re: Planning for the avian flu pandemic.
mystiek wrote:
I don't want to get bumped to the die-off thread, but I wonder how well we are prepared to handle numerous deaths from a pandemic. You see on the news the aftermath of a natural disaster and they end up using mass graves. Its really chilling to think about it....Time to get some tamiflu and garlic (I heard it helps too...)
Yes, garlic is antiviral, and I would take some (a pill-sized piece raw ought to do it) the minute I started feeling sick. If you're on aspirin or blood thinners I guess you shouldn't take a lot as garlic has a blood thinner effect, but otherwise garlic is very safe, only other side effect is upset stomach if you're not used to it and bad breath .... _________________ What, so I'm in no end game
Move my piece right off the board
Joined: May 20, 2008 Posts: 284 Location: Tennessee
Posted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 9:10 am Post subject: Re: Planning for the avian flu pandemic.
RSG-great! Just a couple of questions-pill size-like what my patient's call "horse pills?" or smaller? How often is it recommended to take it? I am making an attempt at growing garlic primarily for medicinal purposes.
Joined: Apr 12, 2007 Posts: 1162 Location: Central NC
Posted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 9:43 am Post subject: Re: Planning for the avian flu pandemic.
Ludi wrote:
wisconsin_cur wrote:
it would be my job to dump the bodies in the river
Oh now that is just irresponsible!
That is what they routinely do in Inda, Bangladesh, Indonesia etc. . . with the massive poultry kills due to H5N1.
Here is a link to worldwide poultry/bird infections and human infections: link _________________ "The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences…"
Sir Winston Churchill
Joined: Sep 16, 2007 Posts: 1132 Location: Oklahoma City, USA
Posted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 10:31 am Post subject: Re: Planning for the avian flu pandemic.
mystiek wrote:
RSG-great! Just a couple of questions-pill size-like what my patient's call "horse pills?" or smaller? How often is it recommended to take it? I am making an attempt at growing garlic primarily for medicinal purposes.
I've seen recommendations from a quarter clove (the size of a typical gel-cap or normal elongated pill) to a clove a day. If you've never had it before I'd go smaller, as it can do a number on your stomach if you're not used to it. When I think I'm getting the flu usually one quarter-clove dose will do the trick.
Eating it regularly in normal food, even cooked, will help (grandma's chicken soup, anyone?), but raw is the best. _________________ What, so I'm in no end game
Move my piece right off the board
Joined: Oct 16, 2004 Posts: 1379 Location: Appalachian Foothills of Virginia
Posted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 7:30 pm Post subject: Re: Planning for the avian flu pandemic.
Shannymara wrote:
skyemoor, what's your conclusion about elderberry extract? I know you've studied H5N1 a lot. I decided it was worth using after the research I did. There was some concern that because it bolsters the immune system it might make H5N1 victims more prone to Cytokine storm, but based on everything I read I decided to risk that.
Having no medical training beyond first aid, it is beyond my skillset to prescribe a course of treatment for influenza. If Smallpoxgirl could weigh in, we could have a more substantive discussion.
I have found some interesting information regarding elderberry, and consider it within the realm of possibility with regards to addressing the treatment of influenza with my family. While there are only a few studies at this time, they give us something to go on, even if it is only a small empirical foothold.
There is quite a bit of guesswork by non-medical people who come to believe that since H5N1 raises cytokine levels, and so does elderberry, then elderberry must be the wrong treatment altogether. This completely ignores the range and variation of the myriad cytokines involved and whether the raising of some by elderberry extract has a particular immuno-suppressive feedback effect. A virologist would be the best person to ask, and one that has studied the matter at that.
Cytokine Overview from Cambridge (highly recommended)
Sambucus nigra L. products – Sambucol – are based on a standardized black elderberry extract. They are natural remedies with antiviral properties, especially against different strains of influenza virus. Sambucol was shown to be effective in vitro against 10 strains of influenza virus. In a double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized study, Sambucol reduced the duration of flu symptoms to 3-4 days. Convalescent phase serum showed a higher antibody level to influenza virus in the Sambucol group, than in the control group. The present study aimed to assess the effect of Sambucol products on the healthy immune system – namely, its effect on cytokine production. The production of inflammatory cytokines was tested using blood – derived monocytes from 12 healthy human donors. Adherent monocytes were separated from PBL and incubated with different Sambucol preparations i.e., Sambucol Elderberry Extract, Sambucol Black Elderberry Syrup, Sambucol Immune System and Sambucol for Kids. Production of inflammatory cytokines (IL-1b, TNF-a, IL-6, IL-8 ) was significantly increased, mostly by the Sambucol Black Elderberry Extract (2-45 fold), as compared to LPS, a known monocyte activator (3.6-10.7 fold). The most striking increase was noted in TNF-a production (44.9 fold). We conclude from this study that, in addition to its antiviral properties, Sambucol Elderberry Extract and its formulations activate the healthy immune system by increasing inflammatory cytokine production. Sambucol might therefore be beneficial to the immune system activation and in the inflammatory process in healthy individuals or in patients with various diseases. Sambucol could also have an immunoprotective or immunostimulatory effect when administered to cancer or AIDS patients, in conjunction with chemotherapeutic or other treatments. In view of the increasing popularity of botanical supplements, such studies and investigations in vitro, in vivo and in clinical trials need to be developed.
While there are several mechanisms responsible for the beneficial effects of Sambucus nigra and extracts of its berries, perhaps the most important and best studied are the antiviral effects. Mumcuoglu, an Israeli virologist, was the first to discover elderberry constituents neutralize the activity of the hemagglutinin spikes found on the surface of several viruses. When these hemagglutinin spikes are deactivated the viruses can no longer pierce cell walls or enter the cell and replicate. (11)
The last is from Fluwikie, from one of the anonymous doctors posting there;
Quote:
The mode of Elderberry’s action is NOT primarily due to activation of citokines, nor is that a particularly strong side effect of Elderberry’s antiviral component. Elderberry contains a ribosomal inactivator which is chemically similar to that of Ricin (the deadly poison terrorists habitually try to manufacture). Ricin’s ribosomal inactivation affects all cells, indiscriminately, thereby killing the organism. However, elderberry’s anti-ribosomal enzyme is chemically distinct, in several minor variations, such that, unlike Ricin, it has no effect on the ribosomes of normal, noninfected, eukaryotic cells (normally functioning cells that make up multi-cellular organisms like us). Instead, it only inactivates ribosomes of cells that are actively infected by influenza and other RNA-type viruses, and which are being used to manufacturer new viral RNA particules. The reason for the specificity is extremely complex and not well understood by scientists. It evolved, no doubt, as a method by which the plant self-protects itself against plant viruses, many of which, like influenza, are based upon RNA. It is interesting to note that, just as St. John’s Wort is specific to the inactivation of DNA based viruses, and has no effect on influenza, elderberry is specific to RNA based viruses, and has no effect on DNA based viruses like human papilloma virus, and/or smallpox. As to its use against the new strains of avian influenza, if you are particularly worried about the minor citokine activation side effect, you can take curcumin (turmeric extract) at the same time. Curcumin dampens down citokine production. However, if taken at the first signs of influenza, before the virus has taken full hold, it is unlikely that the citokine stimulating side effects of Elderberry will cause significant morbidity in sick patients.
Based on how I've done much better with ridding myself of seasonal flus that my kids always bring home, I encouraged a local vintner to move forward with plans to make elderberry wine, and now he is also making an elderberry syrup (about 1/5 the cost of Sambucol and not watered down). I'm a fan of both the wine and the syrup, and have started raising my own plants in addition.
Joined: Oct 04, 2004 Posts: 5141 Location: Oklahoma
Posted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 7:38 pm Post subject: Re: Planning for the avian flu pandemic.
Thank you, skyemoor, both your research and your conclusions mirror my own. I appreciate your taking the time to write that.
I also grow black elderberry (in addition to the extract I made from purchased berries). _________________ "Every junkie's like a setting sun..." - Neil Young
Joined: Dec 27, 2004 Posts: 12036 Location: zombie horde wonderland
Posted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 7:41 pm Post subject: Re: Planning for the avian flu pandemic.
Do dried elderberries work or do they need to be fresh? _________________ "...powerdown so soft and fluffy you'll think you're living in a pillow..." - jboogy
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