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Leanan
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Joined: May 20, 2004
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 Posted: Mon Jul 21, 2008 9:32 pm Post subject: When will the oil supply peak? Some say it already has |
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From the LA Times:
| Quote: | "Peak oil is percolating all over the place," a seismic shift from when peak oilists were considered the petro-world's "lunatic fringe," Hirsch said.
Websites devoted to the subject, such as the Oil Drum, have been proliferating. You can buy peak oil boxer shorts at one site and laugh at peak oil jokes on another.
Consultant Matthew Simmons, known in some circles as Mr. Peak Oil, said he is flooded with speaking requests and gets up to 30 Google alerts a day because his name popped up in a new item.
The boiling debate, in which peakists and their critics flay one another's conclusions and intelligence, is fed by imprecise terminology and oil-field data that are questionable or incomplete. For starters, views vary wildly on how much oil remains in Saudi Arabia -- crucial information for projecting worldwide supplies. |
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Revi
Fusion
Joined: Apr 25, 2005
Posts: 3103
Location: Maine
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| Posted: Mon Jul 21, 2008 9:40 pm Post subject: Re: When will the oil supply peak? Some say it already has |
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Great article!
Peak oil has hit the mainstream.
Thanks!
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pstarr
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Joined: Sep 27, 2004
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| Posted: Mon Jul 21, 2008 10:23 pm Post subject: Re: When will the oil supply peak? Some say it already has |
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It's just like so many other articles. They even drug Jerkin Yerkin out of his wheel chair to pundify the subject.
"plateau will last for 50 years and these space dusts will become profitable at the right price point . . . .blah blah blah."
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Leanan
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| Posted: Mon Jul 21, 2008 10:26 pm Post subject: Re: When will the oil supply peak? Some say it already has |
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Yeah, it's not terribly respectful of "peakists," is it? Peak oil jokes and underwear. Mention of how peak oil predictions have been wrong in the past, but no mention of how wrong "oil will go back to $38" Yergin has been.
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pstarr
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Location: Behind the Redwood Curtain
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| Posted: Mon Jul 21, 2008 10:29 pm Post subject: Re: When will the oil supply peak? Some say it already has |
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| Leanan wrote: | | Yeah, it's not terribly respectful of "peakists," is it? Peak oil jokes and underwear. Mention of how peak oil predictions have been wrong in the past, but no mention of how wrong "oil will go back to $38" Yergin has been. |
I forgetting. Are those $38 oil-barrels referred to as Yerkins or Lynches?
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mark000
Coal
Joined: Apr 29, 2008
Posts: 13
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| Posted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 12:57 am Post subject: Re: When will the oil supply peak? Some say it already has |
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| Quote: | Worries that oil production soon will fall short of demand or begin a steep dive aren't supported by the data his company has compiled, said consultant Daniel Yergin, chairman of Massachusetts-based Cambridge Energy Research Associates and author of "The Prize," a Pulitzer-winning oil history. But anxiety about long-term supply, he said, has "contributed to this very fevered psychology in the oil market."
Cambridge researchers acknowledge that the Earth's oil production eventually will max out. But Cambridge Energy Research Associates director Peter Jackson said that day is continually being pushed back because sizable oil reserves still are being found and technologies are boosting yields and paving the way for deep-sea drilling and other options not previously contemplated.
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I am glad to see that Yergin and Jackson get big mentions. Why? Because the more exposure they get, the more they will be scapegoated when the time comes to play the Blame Game.
(Tho this will only happen in the event that below ground factors cause oil to decline before above ground ones do, eg war, terrorism. If AGFs reduce supply, Yergin and co will get off scot free saying that 'well if this hadn't happened, supply would have risen to 120mbpd in 2030 etc etc) |
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Leanan
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| Posted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 4:26 am Post subject: Re: When will the oil supply peak? Some say it already has |
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It's interesting how the title of this article has changed.
When will the oil supply peak? Some say it already has
Where's the peak for easy-to-find oil? Some say it's here
Easy-to-find-oil: Has peak been reached
Why the oil crunch may grow worse: The fear is that all the easy-to-reach crude has been found. These may be 'the good old days,' one expert says.
I don't think I've ever seen an article's title change so many times in such a short period. Someone was apparently afraid of the words "peak oil."
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killJOY
Fission
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| Posted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 4:30 am Post subject: Re: When will the oil supply peak? Some say it already has |
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| Quote: | | Yeah, it's not terribly respectful of "peakists," is it? |
That's all right. It's too late anyhow, and those idiots will get what's coming to them.
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cube
Fusion
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Joined: Mar 12, 2005
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| Posted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 4:30 am Post subject: Re: When will the oil supply peak? Some say it already has |
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| Revi wrote: | Great article!
Peak oil has hit the mainstream.
Thanks! |
It's not mainstream until Oprah Winfrey starts talking about it!
When PO reaches the point where bleeding-heart liberal feminist women talk about topics like EROEI or overshoot in coffee shops instead of "universal health care" or "Sex in the City" or whatever the hell it is that women talk about then I will consider it mainstream.
PO awareness has to extend beyond just a bunch of men visiting an internet message board.
It has to extend beyond an ignorant and angry society that simply thinks "Big Oil" is just raising prices.
IMHO society is absolutely nowhere near that point. |
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MD
Community Manager
Joined: May 02, 2005
Posts: 3266
Location: One more question...
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| Posted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 4:41 am Post subject: Re: When will the oil supply peak? Some say it already has |
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| cube wrote: |
PO awareness has to extend beyond just a bunch of men people visiting an internet message board.
It has to extend beyond an ignorant and angry society that simply thinks "Big Oil" is just raising prices.
IMHO society is absolutely nowhere near that point. |
I'm back to thinking that it never will. It's much more likely that massive demand destruction will occur and depletion will be passed over as a root cause.
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mark
Heavy Crude
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Joined: Sep 01, 2004
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Location: chicago
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| Posted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 5:36 am Post subject: Re: When will the oil supply peak? Some say it already has |
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Awareness has many levels. Simply being exposed to the concept of peak oil means nothing because it takes time and a stress-free environment to understand the implications of peak. Four years ago when I became peak aware I had the luxury of time; but even two years ago things were beginning to get confused. Now, it's almost too late to comprehend the meaning of peak, there's simply not enough stress free time. Stress and the pressures of the moment almost certainly guarantee all major decisions made in regard to our predicament will be wrong.
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Zardoz
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Joined: Dec 02, 2005
Posts: 6283
Location: Oil-addicted Southern Californucopia
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| Posted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 7:26 am Post subject: Re: When will the oil supply peak? Some say it already has |
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| cube wrote: | It's not mainstream until Oprah Winfrey starts talking about it!
When PO reaches the point where bleeding-heart liberal feminist women talk about topics like EROEI or overshoot in coffee shops instead of "universal health care" or "Sex in the City" or whatever the hell it is that women talk about then I will consider it mainstream.
PO awareness has to extend beyond just a bunch of men visiting an internet message board.
It has to extend beyond an ignorant and angry society that simply thinks "Big Oil" is just raising prices.
IMHO society is absolutely nowhere near that point. |
Wrong. We have reached that point. As of this morning, all of the above has begun to come to pass:
| Quote: | | The fear is that all the easy-to-reach crude has been found. These may be 'the good old days,' one expert says. |
Front page, featured article, Los Angeles Times, with lots of good Peak Oil links on the web page. This is as mainstream as you can get. Stories like this are turning public opinion toward the harsh reality we know is the truth.
Resources: Peak oil websites
Oil opinions
Key terms in oil-supply debate
What more could we want? What more could we ask of a gigantic American city's daily newspaper?
We're there.
(OT: BTW, Cube, let me guess: You don't have much luck with women, do you?)
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Leanan
News Editor
Joined: May 20, 2004
Posts: 4445
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| Posted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 7:33 am Post subject: Re: When will the oil supply peak? Some say it already has |
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There are a couple of sidebars to the article:
Oil opinions
Key terms in oil-supply debate
As for awareness...I suspect there are more women logging into peak oil sites than you think. "White male" is the default setting of human in the US, so that is what you are assumed to be unless you declare otherwise. Many women prefer not reveal their gender, or just don't think it's important online.
I agree that peak oil is hardly at the Oprah level yet. We'd probably need a peak oil book to achieve that. A literary-type book that appeals to women. World Made By Hand isn't it, and neither is The Shell Game.
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"The problems of today will not be solved by the same thinking that produced the problems in the first place." - Albert Einstein |
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dohboi
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Dec 05, 2005
Posts: 1121
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| Posted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 7:46 am Post subject: Re: When will the oil supply peak? Some say it already has |
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Check out this piece on 321 energy:
peak is a done deal
Not exactly Oprah, but a major resource for those regularly checking prices. How long till this spreading awareness shows itself in a resumption of exponential growth in prices? Never mind--congress is going to take care of any such "speculation" about reality.
Glad to see that cube has revealed himself to be a sexist, as well as just being deeply ignorant of his audience, as leanan pointed out. More reason to ignore everything else he has to say.
What a sad, sad specimen this one is. |
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SpringCreekFarm
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Mar 03, 2006
Posts: 835
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| Posted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 7:54 am Post subject: Re: When will the oil supply peak? Some say it already has |
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| Leanan wrote: | | I agree that peak oil is hardly at the Oprah level yet. We'd probably need a peak oil book to achieve that. A literary-type book that appeals to women. World Made By Hand isn't it, and neither is The Shell Game. |
The problem is, since peak oilers have been thought of as crazies up until now, Oprah will not make an issue out of it until some celebrity or big time politician starts talking about it. She has a reputation to uphold, after all.
Besides, Oprah might be in denial because she sure loves her 'favorite things' and that might all come crashing down if she is the one who sets off the panic alarm. |
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