Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Posted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 8:24 am Post subject: Re: When will the oil supply peak? Some say it already has
Zardoz said:
Quote:
Front page, featured article, Los Angeles Times, with lots of good Peak Oil links on the web page. This is as mainstream as you can get. Stories like this are turning public opinion toward the harsh reality we know is the truth.
Unfortunately, this will soon be drown out as the world’s banking and credit markets implode. JP6 will never connect the dots that the reason he has lost his job, his house, his SUV and the dog ran off, with the fact that we are into an energy crisis of historical proportions.
The blame for all the nation’s woes will be laid at the feet of Wall Street malfeasance (couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch of folks)! Bankers will get burned at the stake, the federal government will take draconian action (which will have little affect) and PO will be returned to the back burner.
JP6 is as capable of understanding PO as a June Bug is capable of comprehending nuclear fission. Until PO becomes a meme that he can mimic and recite like a mantra; until his favorite CNNBC pundit tells him that the reason that the world is unraveling is because fossil fuels are no longer delivering the energy that they used to, he will remain perpetually clueless.
When we hear that the real problem is energy, we will know that action may be taken to mitigate its effect, until then, it will be all down hill!
Posted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 8:49 am Post subject: Re: When will the oil supply peak? Some say it already has
shortonoil wrote:
Unfortunately, this will soon be drown out as the world’s banking and credit markets implode. JP6 will never connect the dots that the reason he has lost his job, his house, his SUV and the dog ran off, with the fact that we are into an energy crisis of historical proportions.
Yeah, it's a difficult concept to grasp, much less prove.
We experienced a land rush. People mortgaged their . . . well their homes . . . for a piece of good property under the reasonable assumption God or whomever is 'not printing anymore good land in the face of growing population and demand. Experts, presidents, and pundits pumped the 'new new economy,' the 'information age?' Folks were told 'the earth was flat' and they'd all rapture on a virtual Magic Carpet Ride of free Digital Wealth.
Well gravity returned with a vengeance. I contend the pain of the banking and credit implosion will pale before the Great and Final Disappointment, peak oil. _________________ ree rah rip ram. sunofabitch godamn. hidey didey christ almighty. rah rah crap
Joined: May 09, 2005 Posts: 98 Location: Western Washington
Posted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 9:02 am Post subject: Re: When will the oil supply peak? Some say it already has
cube wrote:
Revi wrote:
Great article!
Peak oil has hit the mainstream.
Thanks!
It's not mainstream until Oprah Winfrey starts talking about it!
When PO reaches the point where bleeding-heart liberal feminist women talk about topics like EROEI or overshoot in coffee shops instead of "universal health care" or "Sex in the City" or whatever the hell it is that women talk about then I will consider it mainstream.
PO awareness has to extend beyond just a bunch of men visiting an internet message board.
It has to extend beyond an ignorant and angry society that simply thinks "Big Oil" is just raising prices.
IMHO society is absolutely nowhere near that point.
Hey - I happen to be a "bleeding-heart liberal feminist woman," not a man, "visiting an internet message board." I think there are others on here as well. And, believe it or not, I do sit around my local coffee shop hanging out with my girlfriends discussing the issues discussed here, including overshoot, EROEI and healthcare (not "Sex in the City") as well as others. So I guess you can consider it mainstream, but maybe we're just a bunch of weird, nerdy women.
Joined: Jul 02, 2008 Posts: 591 Location: Canterbury, UK
Posted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 9:42 am Post subject: Re: When will the oil supply peak? Some say it already has
pstarr wrote:
Well gravity returned with a vengeance.
It's a nice metaphor, I like it. But the fact is that the whole reality is hitting back with a vengeance. Almost 40 years' warning since the club of Rome, 50 since PO theory, and still it isn't common knowledge that we can't afford our lifestyle. That's enough to make anyone angry.
I agree that the front page of the LA Times is probably a nice place to go mainstream for Peak Oil. And it does need to get out of message boards and get out more, get some fresh air outside. Mind, the fight starts now: there will be denial along with hitting mainstream. Get out there and shout it's true, but do it in a positive, hopeful, sharing way. In this forum, I can think of a denying, unreasonable troll with an agenda. You can see him from miles away. But outside, there will be cognitive dissonance from the unknowing people. You don't go around shouting everyone that the world is about to end; they'll lock you away in the nut-case house!
Joined: Aug 03, 2007 Posts: 4590 Location: Boston Suburbs
Posted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 11:25 am Post subject: Re: When will the oil supply peak? Some say it already has
SpringCreekFarm wrote:
The problem is, since peak oilers have been thought of as crazies up until now, Oprah will not make an issue out of it until some celebrity or big time politician starts talking about it. She has a reputation to uphold, after all.
Posted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 12:40 pm Post subject: Re: When will the oil supply peak? Some say it already has
Well said Carlos. Unfortunately we’re just out gunned at times. Just this morning a net work anchor said that the drop in oil prices last week has already led to a drop in prices at the pump. Given that such stupidity was heard by millions who automatically believed it (“well..they couldn’t say it on TV if it wasn’t true”). At moments like that I feel defeated. But then I’ll bounce back to TOD and start to feel more hopeful.
And, yes, welcome cat. My sweetie is also a "bleeding-heart liberal (Yankee) feminist woman" and even my pig-headed Texas male oil field trash brain says it’s good to hear her out.
Posted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 1:02 pm Post subject: Re: When will the oil supply peak? Some say it already has
Yes, welcome, cat. There are many women on this forum including leanan herself, one of the most well informed people you will ever come across anywhere. Please ignore the (fortunately rare) male chauvinist oinks who occasionally make their troglodyte sentiments known here (with apologies to actual cave dwellers).
Or better yet, don't ignore them--give 'em hell! (Or as Truman put it, give 'em the truth and they'll think it's hell.)
Joined: May 09, 2005 Posts: 98 Location: Western Washington
Posted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 1:46 pm Post subject: Re: When will the oil supply peak? Some say it already has
Thanks guys! I've been reading this site for a while now, and occassionally I'm brave enough to comment. By the time I get around to posting, most often someone else has beat me to it, and can usually say it much more eloquently, or at least interestingly. I have learned a lot here, and appreciate all the intelligence and differing points of view.
Peak oil is an issue that both genders need to understand and come to grasps with. A favorite female "peak oiler" and writer is Sharon Astyk, she has her own site called "Casaubon's Book." Check her out for a girly perspective. There are many women who are taking this subject seriously and preparing, working in the community and trying to get the message out, even ones who occasionally watch Oprah
Posted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 2:56 pm Post subject: Re: When will the oil supply peak? Some say it already has
Cat (also the nickname of a female geologist schoomate of mine),
I think women would be as least as concerned about PO as the men. I imagine a lot of women poking around here are motivated by concerns for their children. They hear bits and pieces of doom and gloom from one source or another and want to find out for themselves just how concerned they should be for the sake of their kids. Not to discount the men but we tend to be more biz oriented in our concerns (as well as worried about keeping our pickups full of gas). I have an 8 yo adopted daughter from China so I’m always thinking about the future. In one way I’m glad if we are, in fact, running into the PO wall right now. She’ll have 10+ years before she has to deal with it personally. I can take care of her for now but I’m 58 yo and won’t be there forever. Hopefully by the time she goes out into the world on her own the world will have come to terms with PO on some reasonable level
Joined: May 09, 2005 Posts: 98 Location: Western Washington
Posted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 4:25 pm Post subject: Re: When will the oil supply peak? Some say it already has
Yes, I am very motivated by my kiddos, I have three. I want them to have as good a start as I can possibly give them. It will no doubt be a very different world for them - and not what most expect at this point.
But, way back when I majored in Anthropology and Sociology, and have been interested in those subjects all my life, as well as history and economics. From that perspective I find the whole thing extreemly fascinating. How our culture and our economy have been shaped by this old stuff in the ground - it is really an amazing story.
Thirdly, I'm always trying to stay on top of the finances - my husband should have took me more seriously, or maybe I should have pressed it more, a few years back, when I thought we should take some of what we had out of the typical investment portfolio and put it in gold and energy, we are still working on that.
Anyway, I am horribly off topic. From what I have read, I am pretty sure it has peaked, at least the easy stuff, and it seems that slowly the world is coming around to except that, and maybe eventually come to terms with what that will mean. Like many here I see the solutions as powering down, any "solutions" which allow for continued material growth will ultimately doom us. The word is starting to get out, hopefully it will spread and Oprah will be talking about permaculture and bicycle repair You never know.
Joined: Aug 03, 2006 Posts: 4338 Location: Graceland
Posted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 5:14 pm Post subject: Re: When will the oil supply peak? Some say it already has
mark wrote:
Awareness has many levels. Simply being exposed to the concept of peak oil means nothing because it takes time and a stress-free environment to understand the implications of peak. Four years ago when I became peak aware I had the luxury of time; but even two years ago things were beginning to get confused. Now, it's almost too late to comprehend the meaning of peak, there's simply not enough stress free time. Stress and the pressures of the moment almost certainly guarantee all major decisions made in regard to our predicament will be wrong.
As pstarr noted above, this is a great point.
It's sort of like pulling out the owner's manual to a missile defense system when you get word that enemy missiles have been launched.
Peak oil is such a Rube Goldberg rabbit hole, it really does take quite a while to absorb all of its facets and all of the areas of life it will touch.
Unfortunately, going forward what many people know of it will simply be what the MSM decides to tell them and HOW it decides to tell them.
If the MSM has a shallow of faulty understanding of it (which it is sure to), J6P is not going to be any better off.
I don't even think it would be necessary to try to suppress the message if TPTB had the desire. Simply relying on normal human laziness is probably sufficient.
When I see Simmons on TV I can tell from the questions that the people interviewing him don't really understand what he's talking about.
When I see Pickens being interviewed, it's interesting how no one ever asks him what the EFFECTS would be if his belief that we are past peak is true. _________________
Joined: Apr 06, 2006 Posts: 3626 Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
Posted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 6:35 pm Post subject: Re: When will the oil supply peak? Some say it already has
In the article CERA's Peter Jackson cites the Kern Field in California as an example of how production can be maintained, or even increased. Nothing is mentioned of the field's decline:
Quote:
Initially, engineers expected to recover only 10 percent of the field’s oil. Now, thanks to decades of trial and error, Chevron believes it will be able to recover up to 80 percent of the oil from the field, more than twice the industry’s average recovery rate, which is typically around 35 percent. Each well produces about 10 barrels a day at a cost of $16 each. That compares with production costs of only $1 or $2 a barrel in the Persian Gulf, home to the world’s lowest-cost producers.
Nor does he bring up the fact that techniques such as these have been used in ME fields for decades as well. I agree with Hirsch's assertion that supply additions will begin to fall short of declines/increased demand by 2010, and shortly thereafter we will begin to see real shortages worldwide. The new POTUS can mandate all the grandiose unconventional projects he wants next year - political intransigence will keep them on the table and debating platform, until real pain sets in; and then we wait. I consider the next 2 years to be our last chance to prepare in any meaningful manner - relocation, acquiring supplies, etc. _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
C'mon man, who're you gonna believe?
The internet bots are out there. They prowl the network and store the info in gigantic databases.
They know your sex, age, race, income, online viewing habits, your political affiliation, what books you read, and what size shoes you wear (if you bought it online).
Nothing is private anymore. You're part of the network.
//
It's my observation that a lot of people *like to think* they are individualistic and therefore cannot be compartmentalized.
Sorry folks I hate to break it too you but corporations have spent billions of dollars because they believe otherwise. It's called marketing / statistics / data mining.
Whether you like it or not somebody out there has YOU labeled and "tagged".
I sincerely hope you're not trying to suggest that "peak oil" has a 50/50 male/female demographic following. Don't shoot the messenger.
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ree rah rip ram. sunofabitch godamn. hidey didey christ almighty. rah rah crap 
I have learned a lot here, and appreciate all the intelligence and differing points of view.
You never know.
