Joined: Nov 27, 2004 Posts: 217 Location: Federal City, USA
Posted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 3:10 pm Post subject: Re: Pickens - Nutty or Avaricious
Cashmere wrote:
Quote:
4. American production is likely to go into steep decline any time now.
Quote:
Burning precious natural gas to run cars is about a stupid a thing as you could do right now.
On this page (scroll down half way), Starvid shows a graph which shows that natural gas production is up this year by 9%.
I though natural gas production was peaking. Is this just proof of a really rocky plateau? _________________ Where there once were hopes and dreams, now there is smoke and rubble. And zombies.
Posted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 3:15 pm Post subject: Re: Pickens - Nutty or Avaricious
Duende wrote:
Cashmere wrote:
Quote:
4. American production is likely to go into steep decline any time now.
Quote:
Burning precious natural gas to run cars is about a stupid a thing as you could do right now.
On this page (scroll down half way), Starvid shows a graph which shows that natural gas production is up this year by 9%.
I though natural gas production was peaking. Is this just proof of a really rocky plateau?
America will peak and crash soon - Canada, on the other hand, we can suck on hard for quite a few years.
But prices are going to skyrocket in the next 10 years, there is zero doubt. _________________ Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
Joined: May 26, 2008 Posts: 903 Location: Chicago, IL
Posted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 3:32 pm Post subject: Re: Pickens - Nutty or Avaricious
Cashmere wrote:
America will peak and crash soon - Canada, on the other hand, we can suck on hard for quite a few years. But prices are going to skyrocket in the next 10 years, there is zero doubt.
Check the first chart of Appendix E, page 36. It's by ICF, a reputable energy analysis firm.
Granted, it's in 2007$, but they think NG will stay flat (in 2007$) for the next 30 years.
Posted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 3:33 pm Post subject: Re: Pickens - Nutty or Avaricious
Cashmere wrote:
G-d I always hated twinkies.
Hated 'em.
I'd eat 20 packages of Devil Dogs, drink 10 liters of RC, and get lock jaw eating stale jujifruits, but by G-d, I had my standards, and when offered a Twinkie, I always felt a bit ill.
I am dieting now to drop weight .. but I must interject upon this issue with the following statement ..
Joined: Jul 02, 2008 Posts: 437 Location: Espinho, Porto, Portugal
Posted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 3:39 pm Post subject: Re: Pickens - Nutty or Avaricious
Do you mean the US peaking? Not the rest of the world, I gather. All sources point that worldwide NG Peak will take a few decades.
Can you believe how stupid it would be to use NG to commit the same mistakes that were made with oil? Like powering personal transportation in a totally unsustainable way?
I can just picture the President addressing his hungry, angry citizens during die-off after NG Peak: "Mistakes were made". _________________ Give anyone a lever long enough and they can change the world. It's unreliable levers that are the problem.
Posted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 4:19 pm Post subject: Re: Pickens - Nutty or Avaricious
VMarcHart wrote:
Cashmere wrote:
America will peak and crash soon - Canada, on the other hand, we can suck on hard for quite a few years. But prices are going to skyrocket in the next 10 years, there is zero doubt.
Check the first chart of Appendix E, page 36. It's by ICF, a reputable energy analysis firm.
Granted, it's in 2007$, but they think NG will stay flat (in 2007$) for the next 30 years.
I'm sorry - I stopped reading when I saw "Deleware Govt." on the top.
First Rule of Peak Oil - Talk about Peak Oil.
Second Rule of Peak Oil - TALK ABOUT PEAK OIL.
Third rule of Peak Oil - all government numbers are lies. _________________ Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
Posted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 8:54 pm Post subject: Re: Pickens - Nutty or Avaricious
I think Boone looks like a man whose gotten religion on peak oil. Of course he is going to make money, what incentive do you want? The wind part is right on. The natural gas part is not going to really help us long-term because we are just creating a dependency on a different fossil fuel that will peak and decline as well.
Wind is right for alot of reasons. The technology and companies that sell it are mature, the resource is abundant in the great plains, it pushes America's energy portfolio dramatically toward sustainability.
Joined: Sep 14, 2004 Posts: 6487 Location: Rural Virginia
Posted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 9:29 pm Post subject: Re: Pickens - Nutty or Avaricious
MattS wrote:
And since when did natural gas become precious?
If you like to eat, you should think better of natural gas. It's an important feedstock for fertilizer production, among many many other vital things.
NG has doubled in price over the past year. At times, it's tripled.
NG is often associated with oil formations. The two sort of go together.
It's always been precious; we just didn't realize it until it started getting scarcer. _________________ "Actually, humans died out long ago."
---Abused, abandoned hunting dog
"Things have entered a stage where the only change that is possible is for things to get worse."
---Me and my brother
Joined: Aug 03, 2007 Posts: 3771 Location: Boston Suburbs
Posted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 9:49 pm Post subject: Re: Pickens - Nutty or Avaricious
CarlosFerreira wrote:
I can just picture the President addressing his hungry, angry citizens during die-off after NG Peak: "Mistakes were made".
If we don't at least find a short-term stop-gap, that scenario will play itself out very soon rather than 20-30 years from now. _________________ Paranoia is demonstrated to be an infectious disease, and stupidity plus the internet its major vector.
Posted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 10:21 pm Post subject: Re: Pickens - Nutty or Avaricious
Pickens was speaking like a doomer on Capitol Hill today be it via a true believer in PO, profit motive, or a combination of both. He stated, "I guarantee you oil will be $300 per barrel in the next 10 years if we do nothing". He also made the arguement the economy cannot sustain importing $700 billion worth of oil a year. I believe he is sincere in his arguements. He was also on CNBC this morning clarifying his plan. He clearly stated he wanted fleet vehicles powered by CNG, not personal transit (though the latter is now growing fast in Utah where a supply and distribution network exists). This guy is perfectly aware there is not enough natural gas to power every vehicle. His plan is not perfect. Natural gas offers reliable surplus for peak power generation. Solar could eventually help close that gap but peak solar arrives earlier in the day than peak power demand. The fix being work days could be shifted to more closely align the solar and demand peaks. I believe Pickens knows his plan is only a short-term PO mitigation strategy that really only serves to buy us time to make even greater significant changes in energy policy/production/use. Pickens' whole point is these changes will be tough to accomplish if there is no treasure left to pay for them. I'll give him some credit for putting his money where his mouth is. It would not be prudent to build expensive wind farms if the era of cheap FF were to return.
Posted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 10:33 pm Post subject: Re: Pickens - Nutty or Avaricious
Heineken wrote:
MattS wrote:
And since when did natural gas become precious?
If you like to eat, you should think better of natural gas. It's an important feedstock for fertilizer production, among many many other vital things.
We have plenty of other methods to make it's portion of modern fertilizer. While they may not be cost competitive w/ using NG yet, if NG availability becomes a problem and prices rise I don't see why we would go old skool. The fewer fossil fuels we have available the more favorable "intermittent" cheap renewables like wind power seem for production of replacements.
Quote:
Hydrogen required for ammonia synthesis could in principle be obtained from other sources, but these alternatives, apart from the electrolysis of water to hydrogen route are presently impractical. At one time, most of Europe's ammonia was produced from the Hydro plant at Vemork, via the electrolysis route. Various renewable energy electricity sources are also potentially applicable.
Joined: Jul 02, 2008 Posts: 437 Location: Espinho, Porto, Portugal
Posted: Wed Jul 23, 2008 4:58 am Post subject: Re: Pickens - Nutty or Avaricious
mos6507 wrote:
CarlosFerreira wrote:
I can just picture the President addressing his hungry, angry citizens during die-off after NG Peak: "Mistakes were made".
If we don't at least find a short-term stop-gap, that scenario will play itself out very soon rather than 20-30 years from now.
Right you are. My point is I hope lessons are learned so that mistakes are not repeated. Wasting NG as we have wasted oil, for instance in non-efficient and mostly unnecessary private transportation isn't going to help. If it happens, the mistakes were made speech will be preposterous. _________________ Give anyone a lever long enough and they can change the world. It's unreliable levers that are the problem.
Joined: May 26, 2008 Posts: 903 Location: Chicago, IL
Posted: Wed Jul 23, 2008 6:07 am Post subject: Re: Pickens - Nutty or Avaricious
Heineken wrote:
NG has doubled in price over the past year. At times, it's tripled.
Not really. In 2001, an El Paso line blew in the Mojave, which was one of the catalysts for the California energy crisis, then there was Sept 11, Enron, etc, and gas at Henry Hub jumped from ~$2.5 to ~$8, and it stayed there, given or taken seasonal fluctuations, hurricanes, etc.
Posted: Mon Jul 28, 2008 9:55 pm Post subject: Re: Pickens - Nutty or Avaricious
I have read over some of the plan proposed by Pickin's and have to say that this man putting his money into the plan to grow the wind energy sector resonates with me. I am not as well read on the subject of Peak OIl as the rest of the poster here I am sure (just discovered the concept about a week ago) but I have never been dilusional enough to believe in an infinite supply of Oil.
I am investing in one ETF that is investing in the wind energy marketand companies who make components used in wind turbines or other composite materials used to build the towers. I am also investing in another ETF that invest in solar and natural gas development. I expect this funds will mive inversely for a while with oil's price but eventually they will gain ground because Oil supply will not outpace demand and there will continue to be a widening gap between the two.
Pickins plan is not perfect by any means but it is refreshing to hear someone get up in front of congress and state the facts that this is a real crisis and we need to do something to try to stave it off and buy time to adjust to the inevitable.... a shrinking world after the mass expansion of the 20th century.
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