How then, do we move backwards? How does a society, with most of the people having no clue of future events, move from being dependent on a vast and intertwined network of goods and services produced by the indigenous people of whereever, to a local resource and renewable energy based society, and do so in the timeframe available (20-30 years using the most liberal extimates, 10-20 with resonable estimates, 5-10 with worst case scenarios), all the while prices on everything increasing, world politics getting more militaristic, governments continuously reducing civil liberties, shortages of goods on the market and weather patterns resembling bad Hollywood movies?
Posted: Fri Jul 18, 2008 7:25 am Post subject: Re: Trader's Corner 2008
UPDATE II: How the world should invest in energy efficiency
Quote:
Boosting energy efficiency will help stretch energy resources and slow down the increase in carbon emissions. It will also create opportunities for businesses and consumers to invest $170 billion a year from now until 2020, at a 17 percent average internal rate of return.
However, a wide range of information gaps, market failures, and policy imperfections could slow the pace of investment.
Public- and private-sector leaders can encourage higher energy productivity by setting efficiency standards for appliances and equipment, financing energy efficiency upgrades, raising corporate standards for energy efficiency, and collaborating with energy intermediaries.
One hundred and seventy billion dollars a year invested in efforts to boost energy efficiency from now until 2020 could halve the projected growth in global energy demand. What’s more, these investments could also deliver up to half of the emission abatement required to cap the long-term concentration of atmospheric greenhouse gases at 450 parts per million, the level experts suggest will be needed to prevent the global mean temperature from rising by more than two degrees centigrade.
The key to achieving these results will be carefully targeting cost-effective opportunities to boost energy productivity—the level of output achieved from the energy consumed. In previously published work, the McKinsey Global Institute (MGI) and McKinsey’s global energy and materials practice have described the possibilities for improving the efficiency of lighting, cooling, and heating systems, and of other technologies like vehicles and factory machinery.1 Concerted action could reduce global energy consumption in 2020 by 135 quadrillion British thermal units (QBTU) a year, the equivalent of roughly 64 million barrels of petroleum a day.
We arrived at the figure of $170 billion by estimating the market price of all the large and small investments needed to realize the energy productivity opportunities identified in our previous work.2 The average internal rate of return (IRR) of these investments would be 17 percent, and each of them would generate an IRR of at least 10 percent.3 The total annual energy savings would come to roughly $900 billion by 2020.4 All of the investments, representing just 0.4 percent of current global GDP a year, involve existing technologies—and none require compromising the consumer’s comfort or convenience.
Nevertheless, real obstacles stand in the way of these investments and the energy savings they could generate. One is a set of market and policy imperfections. To name just a few, consumers don’t have enough information about energy-efficient options, fuel subsidies discourage efficient energy use, and landlords and tenants alike resist energy-efficient investments they believe would mostly benefit the other party. A second challenge is that two-thirds of the investment opportunity lies in developing countries, where consumers and businesses face a variety of competing demands for their scarce investment dollars. China alone would need to account for 16 percent of the annual investment that our analysis suggests is needed.
The public and private sectors can do much to overcome these obstacles and facilitate the necessary investments, however. Policy priorities include setting energy efficiency standards for appliances and equipment, as well as removing subsidies and tax breaks for energy consumption. Businesses can raise their efficiency standards and innovate to overcome the information and agency barriers that keep both them and consumers from making economically and environmentally sound choices. In this way, the leaders will capture the significant financial benefits of efficiency and perhaps even create entirely new markets.
_________________ The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
Posted: Mon Jul 21, 2008 6:12 am Post subject: Re: Trader's Corner 2008
Coordinated Central Bank Intervention Alert
Quote:
The five-year rally in emerging- market currencies is coming to an end as central banks from South Korea to Turkey struggle to contain inflation, say DWS Investments and Morgan Stanley.
The 26 developing-country currencies tracked by Bloomberg returned an average 1 percent in the past three months, down from 1.63 percent in the first quarter, 8.2 percent for all of 2007, and 30 percent annually since 2003. For the first time in seven years, investors are less bullish on emerging-market stocks than on U.S. equities, a Merrill Lynch & Co. survey showed last week.
Confidence in the Indian rupee is weakening after inflation accelerated at the fastest pace in 13 years, stoked by soaring food and energy prices. South Korea's won will drop this year by the most since 2000, while Turkey's lira will reverse its biggest gain since at least 1972, the median estimates of strategists surveyed by Bloomberg show.
``There are some countries that suffer from weak institutions, where central banks have not been proactively fighting inflation and sentiment has deteriorated,'' said Nicolas Schlotthauer, a fund manager in Frankfurt at DWS Investments, which oversees about $400 billion. Schlotthauer said he expects the Indonesian rupiah and the Philippine and Colombian pesos to underperform emerging-market assets.
Food and energy prices account for more than 40 percent of inflation in India, Thailand and Turkey, compared with about 25 percent in the U.S., according to Morgan Stanley. Inflation exceeds targets in at least 19 emerging economies.
I am not saying it is going to happen. The fundamentals do not cry out for intervention, yet. But I have to admit the timing would be perfect. Crude is on its backfoot with a slight retracement off its highs, while stock markets are just recovering some poise after their most recent rout ending in the bailout of Freddie and Fannie. Add in some better than expected Q2 corporate results, and now might be the perfect time for central banks to coordinate intervention at $1.6000 against the euro to send oil prices lower and tame US dollar denominated inflation. Especially as some other emerging market currencies look ripe for a correction as well.
Quote:
The time may have come for sustained coordinated intervention by governments to support the wilting U.S. dollar.
The dollar has taken another leg downward on fear surrounding the bailout of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and the perilous state of banking in the United States, briefly breaching $1.60 against the euro and now down almost 7 percent this year against a trade weighted basket of currencies .DXY.
Intervention by the U.S. Federal Reserve, undertaken in concert with the European Central Bank and other global economic powers, could be an inflexion point for the dollar after its 6 year fall.
And with the falling dollar playing a substantial role in rising oil prices, official action to back the currency could provide relief for consumers and ease the pressure from inflation, both in the United States and globally.
It would also be a very useful and timely insurance policy against any run on the dollar should global holders of U.S. debt take fright at what may be a massive bill, and proportionally huge supply of new U.S. debt, to backstop Fannie and Freddie and sort out problems in U.S. real estate and banking.
After this week’s much publicized run-up in financial stocks like Citigroup (C), Merrill Lynch (MER) and Lehman Brothers (LEH), officials at the Federal Reserve and the Treasury would have us believe they exert a calming influence on the raging emotions of irrational markets.
Unfortunately, math isn’t on their side.
Rather than submerging markets in the tepid bath of government security, the Fannie Mae (FNM) and Freddie Mac (FRE) bailouts and the restriction of short-selling on 19 key financial stocks created a violent move in the intended direction: Up.
Tuesday’s whoosh and reversal in the equity markets -- particularly the financials -- was truly phenomenal. The world all but ended in the morning, only to be triumphantly resurrected by the afternoon's close. Wells Fargo (WFC) took the baton and announced earnings that outpaced tempered expectations, and we were off to the races again the very next morning.
It was a rally for the ages. In fact, according to Doug Kass, Tuesday’s 13% move in the financial services exchange traded fund, the XLF, was an 11-standard deviation event. Kass pointed out the odds of such an occurrence are roughly the same as the world ending - three or four times.
The last time we saw moves of this magnitude was nearly a year ago, just before the Fed “surprised” the markets by cutting the Discount Rate. Goldman Sachs (GS) CEO David Viniar said jittery markets experienced staggering gyrations -- to the tune of 25 standard deviations -- just days before Bernanke sought to calm them.
Such brazen manipulation shouldn't inspire us to relax into the soothing embrace of the Plunge Protection Team. Rather, government intervention in financial markets is inherently destabilizing, as evidenced by the unprecedentedly rare events of a few days ago.
Financial market risk management is based on math, specifically on statistical models. Traders calculate the odds of an event happening, the potential loss if it does, and then invest accordingly.
Extremely rare events, sometimes called “tail events” (in reference to their position on the normal distribution), break those models and can cause huge losses. In fact, economic theorist Nassim Nicholas Taleb dedicated an entire book to Wall Street’s inability to cope with such highly improbable events, which he called "Black Swans.”
It used to be that most of these occurrences were caused by acts of nature, geopolitical shocks or long-term structural shifts in the way a certain market or group of peopled acted. Now, with alarming frequency, Washington creates these tail events under the guise of stabilization.
Nothing could be further from the truth.
As the market comes to rely on the Fed and the Treasury to heal its ills, traditional risk management is rendered useless. Investment banks are far better served by spending millions on crafty Washington lobbyists than on teams of expert statisticians and experienced traders to protect the firm’s capital.
Irrespective of one's opionion on the economy or the stock market, this isn't a welcome development.
source: Andrew Jeffery
www.minyanville.com _________________ The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
Posted: Mon Jul 21, 2008 8:35 am Post subject: Re: Trader's Corner 2008
TighteningCreditLending=ForcedDeleveraging
"From what bankers have told me, this (tougher approach to loans) is because they are under much greater scrutiny from regulators after the excesses of recent years,"
Quote:
Small businesses are a linchpin of the U.S. economy because they form the backbone of the country's jobs market and are crucial for job creation. According to U.S. Census Bureau data, in 2002 the United States had 112 million paid employees. About 56.4 million of them, or just more than 50 percent, worked at companies with fewer than 500 employees.
In the wake of the U.S. housing crisis and the shock waves this has sent through the financial sector, evidence has mounted that, as well as facing the strains of a weak economy and the pain of high fuel costs, many small companies face a tough time getting loans.
Sears Holdings Corp. and Wal-Mart Stores Inc. are among U.S. retailers that have had to renew their credit facilities with banks on more restrictive terms, the Wall Street Journal reported, without saying where it got the information.
Banks are limiting so-called ``rainy-day money'' they give corporate clients in the form of revolving-credit facilities, the newspaper said, adding that AT&T Inc. and American International Group Inc. have also had to agree to tougher terms.
source: July 21 (Bloomberg) _________________ The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
What a couple of months. Personally, I have no idea what is going to happen. It is an economic circus. I am beginning to fear we may be at the Great Depression MK 2. I feel the credit contraction is just beginning. The positive feedbacks, the accelerators and multipliers that fuelled the credit/property boom are fuelling its bust and an ever increasing velocity.
Credit losses are going to become more main stream, Alt-A mortgages, commercial property loans, credit and car loans could start to generate significant losses causing a knock out blow to the banking system that can’t take any more hits.
HBOS got an 8% take-up for its rights issue today. There are no more saviours, no more merciful sovereign wealth funds to ride to the rescue. We have entered a new more dangerous area, which could destroy the core of the capitalist system.
As for my activities, I called the top of the oil market last week and sold my option positions when oil was trading in the early 140’s – I am thinking the price will come of the boil in the short-term. The major/intermediate uptrend was broken last week at the 135 level and we are coming of peak demand season. I got long gold again on the 850 retracement but failed to go short S&P at the 1440 resistance level. I am kicking myself, was listening too much to some technical guru who was saying never short a strong market!!
What are you guys doing at the moment? Are you tempted by any of these double digit dividend yields from the banks Mr Bill?
What a couple of months weeks!. Personally, I have no idea what is going to happen.
What are you guys doing at the moment?
I'm sitting tight with the usual 'roughly' 50-50 split between FSESX (energy service) and FSNGX (NATGAS). I went a little into gold about a week ago thinking about the bank issue and the resultant high potential for inflation.
I like these two areas because they never go out of style.
PO is going to strengthen the (non-majors) energy sector more and more as time passes IMO.
I've never been a fan of precious metals, but I added a few percentage points of the total in gold because of a diminishing faith in the continuing stability of the banking and finance sector. I'm ready to add a few more oz depending on what unfolds over the coming months. . _________________ Everything is Impermanent. Shakyamuni Buddha
Posted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 6:20 am Post subject: Re: Trader's Corner 2008
7.6% is not a recession, but it all depends on what you were expecting as far as investment and return?
Quote:
Asia's developing economies will expand at the slowest pace in five years in 2008 as easing U.S. growth weighs on exports and accelerating inflation crimps consumer spending, the Asian Development Bank said.
East Asia may expand 7.6 percent in 2008, less than a December estimate of 8 percent, according to a report released today by the lender's Office for Regional Economic Integration in Manila. Next year's growth is also estimated at 7.6 percent.
A U.S. housing recession has roiled financial markets and hurt demand for Asian-made technology and other goods, threatening expansion in a region the ADB says will account for more than a fifth of global growth this year. Record commodity costs have forced central banks from Vietnam to Indonesia to raise interest rates at the risk of stifling expansion further.
``Emerging East Asia is facing stronger headwinds as external demand weakens, global oil and food prices remain elevated, the global IT recovery remains fragile, and the subprime-generated financial turmoil continues to work itself out,'' the ADB division said.
China's growth is likely to cool amid a ``more protracted'' U.S. slowdown and as the government tightens policies to keep inflation contained, according to the report. Asia's second- largest economy will expand 9.9 percent in 2008, compared with a December estimate of 10.5 percent, the ADB unit said. Expansion may slow to 9.7 percent next year.
There are few signs that price pressures will subside anytime soon, the ADB unit said, predicting inflation in the region will average 6.3 percent this year, more than double the average in the 10 years to 2006, and ease to 4.6 percent in 2009.
As I said at the start of the week the earnings season is just starting and is not over, yet. Not all the results will be of Wells Fargo, JPM or of Intel quality. There are still the Wachovia's of the world that need to report.
Quote:
Wachovia Corp on Tuesday posted an $8.86 billion second-quarter loss, slashed its dividend, and announced 6,350 job cuts after losses tied to mortgages soared.
Paid too much for your Gen1 iPod? Got Amex? ; - ))
Quote:
Apple, also down more than 10 percent at $149.74, was poised to lead a technology sell-off, a day after the iPod and iPhone maker said its current-quarter earnings will be well below Wall Street's targets.
"We must have a slow economy because Texas Instruments, American Express and Apple are having a hard time," said Arthur Hogan, chief market analyst at Jefferies & Co in Boston. "Those are some household names, putting some pressure on stocks. Wachovia doesn't look positive."
I am long a few banks MK, but ones that I sold and rebought. I think I was too early. The problems worse than I expected. More international than I expected. That hurts as I was primarily looking at a weak US outlook with a weaker US dollar, and not factoring in a global slowdown when I bought them. However, my realistic second assessment is that I will keep those smallish positions, but I will not add to them, yet. They may be value-traps still?
I will selectively go back into niche banks either by geographical region (for instance EEMEA banks) or just wait for a clearing of the decks and buy the rebound. As you said, that take-up on HBOS is by no means encouraging. No secondary sovereign wealth support for the next wave of cash strapped commercial banks that do not have an unique franchise for a strategic investor.
I still hold a grudge against HBOS for buying and ruining my favorite little offshore private bank that used to offer great service and products. They turned it into a nightmare. There is a reason I left High Street in the first place. HBOS just destroyed a nice little franchise without offering any new value. It is not my view tha that a bank can be all things to all people.
CPR/CNR are stocks I wanted to buy, but was too afraid of a US recession. Now I may eventually get my chance. I will buy cheaper than Berkshire Hathaway in any case. Down 22% YOY since Buffet bought CPR.
Quote:
Higher fuel prices, a weak economy and flood damage to its U.S. mainline drove quarterly profit at Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd. 40 per cent lower.
“Combined, these had a significant impact on CP's earnings,” chief executive officer Fred Green stated
(continued)
Price increases bumped freight revenue by almost 2 per cent. Shipments of forest products were hurt by continued weakness in the U.S. housing market, down 21 per cent. Grain loads were down 9 per cent, sulphur and fertilizers down 5 per cent and automotive loads decreased by 2 per cent. Industrial and consumer products increased by 17 per cent and coal was 6 per cent higher.
Operating expenses were up 7 per cent, with fuel costing the railway 34 per cent more than expected in the quarter.
(continued)
Meanwhile, Canadian National Railway posted an 11 per cent drop in second-quarter earnings Monday. The company left its 2008 earnings forecast in place, but warned that fuel costs and a higher dollar are acting as a drag on profits.
US dollar strengthens/euro weakens on US strong dollar policy comments by Paulson. This could be laying the groundwork for coordinated intervention as per my comments on Monday. That will keep crude on its backfoot for the moment despite hurricane and Iran worries. Currently testing $129. A definite retreat from the high $1.59's we saw yesterday back to under $1.5900 again. $1.6000 may be the line in the sand. Airbus is a good proxy for euro strength and weakness. Every ten cents of euro strength knocks $1 billion off their bottom-line. So short Boeing and buy Airbus. _________________ The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
Posted: Wed Jul 23, 2008 3:06 am Post subject: Re: Trader's Corner 2008
The S&P500 is putting in a nice technical reversal at 1200 this week. Should we close above 1270 this week it would be a positive signal for a rebound. The bottom? As I said before, I do not think so. A temporary bottom supported by a marginally stronger US dollar and falling crude oil prices? Yes, maybe.
The S&P Energy Index (GSPE) is diverging with the S&P 500 as oil prices moderate even though many oil cos. beat Q2'08 earnings estimates. This could well be profit taking and portfolio rebalancing. It is too early to call a trend based on 4-5 days of data. This could benefit the refiners as crude prices decline and refining margins strengthen during the summer driving season. Crack margins are $10-11 strengthening to $15-16 per barrel towards winter.
Here are some good income numbers for future reference.
Quote:
A report showing the growing disparity in wealth in the United States was released recently by the American Human Development Project, a nonprofit project whose major backers include Oxfam America and the Rockefeller Foundation.
Citing Census Bureau data, Lewis told the Joint Economic Committee that in 2006, the average annual income in the top quintile of U.S households stood at $168,170 -- nearly 15 times the average income of $11,352 a year in the lowest quintile.
The richest 20 percent in the country earned more than half of the nation's total income.
"The American meritocracy, the foundation of the American Dream, is at risk. Social mobility is now less fluid in the United States than in other affluent nations," she said.
The top 1 percent of U.S. households possess a third of America's wealth and the bottom 60 percent only 4.2 percent, according to Lewis.
Just like I believe that we are in a rolling global economic slowdown where not everyone is in or near recession at the same time, I also think that this US recession - official or not - is of course hitting individuals in the bottom 50-percentile disprportionately hard as they have less assets to protect themselves from rising food, energy, housing and healthcare costs. And they are still in better shape than the world's most desperately poor.
Quote:
The U.S. government estimates that more than 400,000 people around the country sleep in homeless shelters each night, with many more on the streets, under bridges and in parked cars. Advocacy groups say that some 3.5 million Americans will find themselves homeless at some point in a year.
As home foreclosures passed the 2 million mark last year, organizations offering emergency accommodation say they are fielding more calls from families facing homelessness as they struggle to keep up with mortgages, rent and bills.
Of course, not everyone is suffering in this current economic downturn....
Quote:
July 23 (Bloomberg) -- John Paulson, the money manager whose wagers against the U.S. housing market helped him earn an estimated $3.7 billion last year, is starting a hedge fund to provide capital to financial firms hurt by mortgage writedowns.
Paulson aims to open the fund by December, according to two people with knowledge of the matter. His New York-based Paulson & Co. hasn't set a fund-raising target, said the people, who declined to be identified because the plans aren't complete.
Losses caused by the credit crisis may reach $1.3 trillion, Paulson, 52, said at a conference in Monaco on June 18. The world's biggest banks and securities firms raised $345 billion of capital in the past year following $467 billion of writedowns and credit-market losses, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
update: rolling, rolling, rolling, keep the bad news rolling, raw deal...
Quote:
Game over. After braving a barrage of global headwinds for two years without veering off course, the eurozone economy is now finally running aground. The surge in oil prices by $45 per barrel over the first six months of the year and the further 4.5 per cent spike in the effective euro exchange rate at the same time have gone beyond what the region can bear. Unless oil and currency markets turn around soon, the eurozone may grow hardly at all for the next three quarters.
Leading indicators now point south. Adjusted for inflation, narrow M1 money supply is already contracting, signalling a recession risk. Unfortunately, real M1 is one of the best and most forward-looking guides to future growth. Standard business confidence indices have also come off sharply.
Fundamentally, the eurozone is still in better shape than either the US or the UK. But while the US is being kept afloat by lax monetary and fiscal policy and an undervalued exchange rate, the eurozone has a modestly restrictive monetary policy, a roughly neutral fiscal stance and a wildly overvalued currency. Both the US and the eurozone are likely to scrape by with semi-stagnation, that is with growth so far below trend that we will need a magnifying glass to see it.
But the risk that any additional shock could cause a recession is now as high for the eurozone as it has been for the US for more than a year already.
SOURCE: How to restore European resilience _________________ The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
Posted: Wed Jul 23, 2008 8:01 am Post subject: Re: Trader's Corner 2008
One day not so long ago I was reading Bloomberg magazine and there was an article on some of the most successful hedge fund managers. Some real pioneers before many of these me-too funds came along recently. One fund manager used to count empty taxis in NYC to guage the strength of the economy. How primitive. I use Peak Oil. What is better than posting articles on what is happening in the economy and then inviting so many posters to comment on those observations. Anecdotal evidence, personal experiences, news and data that I would otherwise miss.
Quote:
The idea that solutions can come from anywhere, and from people with seemingly unrelated work, is another key. Dr. Lakhani said his study of InnoCentive found that “the further the problem was from the solver’s expertise, the more likely they were to solve it,” often by applying specialized knowledge or instruments developed for another purpose.
For example, he said, the brain might be thought of as a biological system, but “certain brain problems may not be solvable by taking a biological approach. You may want to cast it as an electrical engineering approach. An electrical engineer will come in and say, ‘Oh, here’s the answer for you.’ They have not thought of themselves as being neuroscientists but now they can approach the problem from the point of view of electrical engineering.”
In fact research has shown the dangers of group think in problem solving as well as the benefits of open collaboration by informed outsiders versus a small group of professionals. I posted something from McKinsey on that about a month or so ago here. So when I came across this article today I thought I would post it as well. I think it validates a lot of the good work we do here at Peak Oil. And from me personally here in Trader's Corner, thank you so much for all the feedback I have received. My colleagues and I really do talk about this stuff all day long. It is nice to be able to structure and sound out my arguments like this ahead of time. _________________ The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
Joined: Feb 20, 2005 Posts: 2640 Location: Uppsala, Sweden
Posted: Wed Jul 23, 2008 11:15 am Post subject: Re: Trader's Corner 2008
I've used the current market weakness to buy some Noble (NE), an offshore driller. Also the Siemens order came through and I've switched from Royal Dutch Shell to Occidental Petroleum. But that Norwegian seismic company is down about 10 % since I bought it. Thank goodness for diversification.
Currently looking at Seadrill, Rowan companies and the oil serivce conglomerate Bonheur.
PS. And the little American oil&gas company Mariner Energy. Anyone know anything about it? _________________ Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
Last edited by Starvid on Wed Jul 23, 2008 11:23 am; edited 1 time in total
Joined: Feb 20, 2005 Posts: 2640 Location: Uppsala, Sweden
Posted: Wed Jul 23, 2008 11:20 am Post subject: Re: Trader's Corner 2008
Quote:
"The American meritocracy, the foundation of the American Dream, is at risk. Social mobility is now less fluid in the United States than in other affluent nations," she said.
Like in evul "socialist" Europe... The European Dream anyone?
Quote:
The top 1 percent of U.S. households possess a third of America's wealth and the bottom 60 percent only 4.2 percent, according to Lewis.
I don't get why you people don't change politicians completely. Ok, those numbers would be acceptable if real wages for the broad middle classes had been rising, but they have been stagnant for a third of a century and the increases in the standard of living have been financed by the currently unravelling mortage equity ponzi scheme. _________________ Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
Man. Amazing blood letting again today in the commodities markets. Gold's down $30. Natural gas had another big decline and slammed into the 200 day moving average so hard you could actually hear the thud. NG is down 29% since 7/2. Oil's down several more bucks.
At least for the moment, the much anticipated bursting of the commodity bubble seems to be here with a vengeance. _________________ "I was born in a deep forest
I wish I could live here all my life
I am made from stones and roots
My home, these woods and roads
All my life I loved this sound
Of the woods all around
Eagles fly where the winds blow free" -Korpiklaani
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