Joined: Sep 16, 2004 Posts: 4279 Location: Southwest WI
Posted: Wed Jul 23, 2008 2:12 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27)
In a weird way i just want it to plummet... Go down to about $75 or less and just watch the morons come out of the woodwork. Can you imagine the headlines and the articles...
Has more oil come onto the market? Has consumption really dropped that much? Both answers in my book are "no". _________________ "Oil is going up because we use too much oil, and the capacity to replace reserves is dwindling"
-President Bush 11/07/07
Joined: Apr 17, 2005 Posts: 2680 Location: Vancouver Island
Posted: Wed Jul 23, 2008 3:50 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27)
frankthetank wrote:
Has more oil come onto the market? Has consumption really dropped that much? Both answers in my book are "no".
Which if oil is actually able to stay down there would mean that speculators are a pretty good answer as to why the price was so high.
I have my doubts it can actually stay down for long. At best I figure demand destruction will just stop the climb in the long term. _________________ shame on us, doomed from the start
god have mercy on our dirty little hearts
Posted: Wed Jul 23, 2008 4:46 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27)
strider3700 wrote:
frankthetank wrote:
Has more oil come onto the market? Has consumption really dropped that much? Both answers in my book are "no".
Which if oil is actually able to stay down there would mean that speculators are a pretty good answer as to why the price was so high.
I have my doubts it can actually stay down for long. At best I figure demand destruction will just stop the climb in the long term.
If you go over to the BBC market data pages it is easy to see that every commodity was down. Like rats fleeing a sinking ship. This could be a sign that the second half wipe out some 'foresee' is being taken seriously. Where do you go with your money when stocks are not going to be a growth vehicle, mortgages are tanked, commodities are taking a hit because of a slowing economy,...bonds? But I heard that Fannie and Freddie would put pressure on bond markets as well.
It feels to me like that scene in Lord of the Rings whee they are in the Mines of Moriah fleeing from the mass of goblins and orks through that great hall. They are surrounding and suddenly comes the lightin the distance and the thundering footsteps of the Balroc and all the Orks scatter into the darkness. The dialogues that seems fitting is this. 'Run you fools!'
Maybe I'm getting too doomerish, but it seems like the gods of Wall Street must have been on the toilet or something, or face down in the toilet trying to get over their hangover.
A day of reckoning approaches, as sure as the sun rises tomorrow. A day when the sun will not give light by day or the moon at night.
Posted: Wed Jul 23, 2008 4:49 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27)
Peleg wrote:
Where do you go with your money when stocks are not going to be a growth vehicle, mortgages are tanked, commodities are taking a hit because of a slowing economy
Sell short. There's no reason you can't make just as much money off things going down as up. _________________ "I was born in a deep forest
I wish I could live here all my life
I am made from stones and roots
My home, these woods and roads
All my life I loved this sound
Of the woods all around
Eagles fly where the winds blow free" -Korpiklaani
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5502 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Wed Jul 23, 2008 5:06 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27)
My guess is that this is the forced liquidation is related to the bankruptcy of a major commodity broker, SemGroup LP. There is a tendency in such events for the good trades to be liquidated and closed out as individual accounst flee the failing broker and go somewhere else.
This is about the third time in one year this has happened, with this company showing the biggest losses so far.
BTW the reason it went bankrupt is that it heavily speculated on falling oil prices. Don't tell anyone in the US Congress this - they think speculation is forcing up prices when in reality futures speculation had been holding down prices until lately (when the speculators closed out). _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Posted: Thu Jul 24, 2008 9:33 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27)
Here is a great chart by Clive Maund saying the same thing SmallPoxGirl and I have been saying for quite some time. We were saying we were close to breaking down (I actually thought we'd break down at $127-Wrong there!) and that it's going down to the 200 day moving average.....before it will consolidate and eventually roar up to new highs again.
Smallpox, he points out that faultering momentum in the MACD that you pointed out. I bought that book and will start reading it soon....
Posted: Thu Jul 24, 2008 9:40 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27)
chuck6877 wrote:
Here is a great chart by Clive Maund saying the same thing SmallPoxGirl and I have been saying for quite some time. This thing is probably going down to the 200 day moving average.....before it will consolidate and eventually roar up to new highs again.
Did you see natural gas prices today? It crashed through the 200dma like it wasn't even there. If the 200dma breaks, I don't know where the bottom is. Not saying oil will necessarily do the same, BTW, but I am just amazed by how far and how fast NG has fallen. Up till the beginning of July, NG and oil were pretty much moving together. _________________ "I was born in a deep forest
I wish I could live here all my life
I am made from stones and roots
My home, these woods and roads
All my life I loved this sound
Of the woods all around
Eagles fly where the winds blow free" -Korpiklaani
Joined: Dec 18, 2004 Posts: 4122 Location: One Mile From the Columbia River
Posted: Thu Jul 24, 2008 12:25 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27)
smallpoxgirl wrote:
chuck6877 wrote:
Here is a great chart by Clive Maund saying the same thing SmallPoxGirl and I have been saying for quite some time. This thing is probably going down to the 200 day moving average.....before it will consolidate and eventually roar up to new highs again.
Did you see natural gas prices today? It crashed through the 200dma like it wasn't even there. If the 200dma breaks, I don't know where the bottom is. Not saying oil will necessarily do the same, BTW, but I am just amazed by how far and how fast NG has fallen. Up till the beginning of July, NG and oil were pretty much moving together.
For those of us who are incurable long on energy, these periodic little (and sometimes NOT too 'little') dips do take our breath away, don't they?
Long term tip: Remember, 'peak oil'. It will keep getting scarcer and more than 50 million cute steel and plastic people and goods movers, 99.9% of which are using ICE's, will be built each year adding to the billion of so of them already treading the worlds roads.
This is only a temporary dip. Happily sit it out. _________________ Everything is Impermanent. Shakyamuni Buddha
Posted: Thu Jul 24, 2008 12:28 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27)
smallpoxgirl wrote:
chuck6877 wrote:
Here is a great chart by Clive Maund saying the same thing SmallPoxGirl and I have been saying for quite some time. This thing is probably going down to the 200 day moving average.....before it will consolidate and eventually roar up to new highs again.
Did you see natural gas prices today? It crashed through the 200dma like it wasn't even there. If the 200dma breaks, I don't know where the bottom is. Not saying oil will necessarily do the same, BTW, but I am just amazed by how far and how fast NG has fallen. Up till the beginning of July, NG and oil were pretty much moving together.
I would think, THINK, $100 would be the destination if it did break the 200 dma. It consolidated below that from $85-$100 for a long time. When WTIC did finally break through $100 and up to $110 it went back to $100 and tested it twice.
$100 is a good destination other than the 200dma technically and psychologically wouldn't you think?
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Not saying oil will necessarily do the same, BTW, but I am just amazed by how far and how fast NG has fallen. Up till the beginning of July, NG and oil were pretty much moving together.
