Posted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 8:57 pm Post subject: Re: US gives Iran 2 weeks or face war
I don't think they will attack Iran. I think the military would be against it, as it would be suicide. Bush left his office halfways yet so he might not begin something "big" now.
For the Iran side it's really strange how propaganda works. How many, even here, believe the story "we have tried all diplomatic measures..". It is really weird that Americans believe they have the right to own all these bombs, but for the rest of the world, it is forbidden, unless they are allied.
Irak gave and example for Iran: you don't have WMD, but they will accuse you of having them, and attacking and destroying you. If Hussein would have had WMD, at least it would not have been that easy (unfortunately it isn't easy as they thought).
I have no doubts that Iran wants to make their bomb. And I don't like the thought either. But it is understandable as they are unfortunate having all these oil reserves and are do likely to be attacked.
Posted: Sun Jul 20, 2008 11:20 pm Post subject: Re: US gives Iran 2 weeks or face war
alokin wrote:
It is really weird that Americans believe they have the right to own all these bombs, but for the rest of the world, it is forbidden, unless they are allied.
Well, "weird" only in the "irrational" sense.
If there are two men and one stick, each man is sure that, for the sake of keeping the peace, he would be the better choice to carry the stick - Cashmere _________________ Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
Posted: Mon Jul 21, 2008 1:45 am Post subject: Re: US gives Iran 2 weeks or face war
Cashmere, this is maybe the behaviour of a 4-year old, but a halfway intelectually developed person should be able to understand that the wish to feel safe is on both sides, hence one has weapon x the other wants it as well to feel safe. If the US want others to feel safe, then they must disarm what threatens other countries (remember: Gorbachev)
Joined: Aug 23, 2004 Posts: 477 Location: New Zealand
Posted: Mon Jul 21, 2008 3:45 am Post subject: Re: US gives Iran 2 weeks or face war
It also helps if the man with stick doesn't go around accusing other men of secretly harbouring desires for the stick and beating the snot out of them at random.
Posted: Mon Jul 21, 2008 11:25 am Post subject: Re: US gives Iran 2 weeks or face war
Blood and destruction shall be so in use
And dreadful objects so familiar
That mothers shall but smile when they behold
Their infants quarter'd with the hands of war;
All pity choked with custom of fell deeds:
And Caesar's spirit, ranging for revenge,
With Ate by his side come hot from hell,
Shall in these confines with a monarch's voice
Cry 'Havoc,' and let slip the dogs of war;
That this foul deed shall smell above the earth
With carrion men, groaning for burial.
Joined: May 06, 2006 Posts: 873 Location: Tustin, CA
Posted: Mon Jul 21, 2008 1:38 pm Post subject: Re: US gives Iran 2 weeks or face war
joelcolorado wrote:
Blood and destruction shall be so in use
And dreadful objects so familiar
That mothers shall but smile when they behold
Their infants quarter'd with the hands of war;
All pity choked with custom of fell deeds:
And Caesar's spirit, ranging for revenge,
With Ate by his side come hot from hell,
Shall in these confines with a monarch's voice
Cry 'Havoc,' and let slip the dogs of war;
That this foul deed shall smell above the earth
With carrion men, groaning for burial.
I am not a Jew, I am not a believer in Mohammed. Why should I act on the Mythologies of either one? _________________ Skeptical scrutiny in both Science and Religion is the means by which deep thoughts are winnowed from deep nonsense-Carl Sagan
Posted: Mon Jul 21, 2008 1:43 pm Post subject: Re: US gives Iran 2 weeks or face war
joelcolorado wrote:
Blood and destruction shall be so in use
And dreadful objects so familiar
That mothers shall but smile when they behold
Their infants quarter'd with the hands of war;
All pity choked with custom of fell deeds:
And Caesar's spirit, ranging for revenge,
With Ate by his side come hot from hell,
Shall in these confines with a monarch's voice
Cry 'Havoc,' and let slip the dogs of war;
That this foul deed shall smell above the earth
With carrion men, groaning for burial.
Ah, Shakespeare, you have to admit he knew humanity well.
"The more things change, the more they stay the same." The maxim sums up the Bard's words but only with a fraction of the eloquence.
War with Iran? Lord, that has to be the Mother of All Bad Ideas.
I sincerely hope no one would honestly contemplate it.
Posted: Mon Jul 21, 2008 2:16 pm Post subject: Re: US gives Iran 2 weeks or face war
I think Iran will pull the trigger to garner world sympathy when put back in their place. They think like that They believe that the rest of the Muslim world will come to their aid. Well they WONT.
Posted: Mon Jul 21, 2008 8:16 pm Post subject: Re: US gives Iran 2 weeks or face war
I doubt the US will attack Iran, but I recall a recent Israeli statment that "if diplomatic options fail we will strike," or something along those lines.
Even Bush seems to get that the US can't strike Iran unilaterally right now without bringing down a huge political crap storm. But Israel can, and then Bush & Co. can point and say "they started it."
IMO, this is a show for the pro-war Israelis so that can say "oh, well looks like talks failed. scramble those fighters."
It's pretty clear that if Iran's government wants to cripple the world's energy supply while it's serving up humble pie to the neocons, they can, probably will, and don't seem to have any qualms about martyring themselves in the process. If China & Russia see the US set off the energy supply collapse, the US may end up staring down the barrel of sactions and even armed agression against foreign strategic holdings. If Israel starts it, it's politically harder to pin the tail on the donkey.
Will Iran be able to tell who's fighters they are, or who's cruise missiles? Will they only fight back against Israeli targets, or will they launch a full salvo at the American fleet jam packed into the straight? ...considering they've already threatened that in the event of any agression, they will attack targets in SA. Like I said, IMO, it's their plan. We'll get dragged into it, either through an "unprovoked attack against american forces" or when we realize Israel is about to take the first real ass-whuping of a major military power in the 21st century.
Posted: Mon Jul 21, 2008 8:40 pm Post subject: Re: US gives Iran 2 weeks or face war
OilFinder2 wrote:
Yawn.
I'm not quite there yet but I do find we have the exact same discussion everytime there is a news item about Iran.
Now if Bush had said 'It's time for Shakira and Awe! Ure about to get Iranified!' We would take it more seriously.
Iran stories are good for about a five dollar rise in the price of oil at most if they are juicy enough. We all know that an attack on Iran would be big news indeed, but first would come the attack and then we would see if the Iranians had anything to back up the saber rattling. My sense is they have to talk tough but they really really hope that we will find a way to let them have a nuke plant or two because they need the electricity.
Talk about a country that needs refineries. Whoever lead this country into exporting it's oil and importing finished products should get a nobel peace prize.
The first thing I would do were I the President of Iran (please I know) would be to stop dinking around with nukuler and move immediately into natural gas fired plants for electricity and refineries so that we have the closed loop to allow resource nationalization for the good of our own citizens. Once our own growth needs were met we could put the rest on the market. I know some people think that resource nationalization is a form of economic warfare, and it can be, but in the future it is the wisest thing big producers with smaller populations (<50 million) can do. By reversing the paradigm they can then ensure their own domestic strength and usbsidize oil to countries who work within a UN framework for reducing world use of fossil fuels. In other words instead of plucking nose hairs out of the Great Satan, build your own infrastructure, live at peace and contribute to a peaceful world. Now is that so hard?
I had to laugh, if I can admit that my wife and I did, when we heard about the face to face. I imagine it went something like this.
US Diplomat shakes hands sits down and says, 'If you fuys are willing to halt all enrichment we can talk about lifting some of the sanctions.'
The Iranian Diplomat says, "Give me back those Godiva chocolates and don't let the tent flap slap you silly on the way out."
Just another failure of cowboy diplomacy on the way to one of the most maligned Presidencies in history.
Plus, don't we have anybody who understand Persian and Shia culture well enough to make progress here?
I recall years ago a U2 went down over China. Zhang refused to negotiate,..refused to negotiate, and then some bright light over at the State Department told the Admin, 'You have to give him a way to save face.'
Once they did that the pilot and the plane were home in a few weeks (plus a plague of not so well hidden listening devices in the plane.)
We show these people everyday that we do not care enough about them to even listen to their real concerns. China is showing us more and more everyday that the happiness of the people comes from market based economics and not the form of government per se. People like prosperity. Almost every study ever done shows that prosperous nations have lower birth rates, are more environmentally conscious, develop ways to solve social problems, give more to charity, and are better world citizens (????) that last one is up for debate I guess.
The facts are this that unless Iran does something really stupid Bush probably can't get them before he leaves, and if he doesn't do it probably will not happen.
But back to basics this all hinges on the intent of the Iranians. I mean if they are actually trying to get nukes (which is in some sense still an open question though I think it is unlikely) they cannot be doing so for a good reason. That country simply does not need nuclear weapons. There is no threat to them that justifies it.
Posted: Wed Jul 23, 2008 2:26 am Post subject: Re: US gives Iran 2 weeks or face war
here we go
Quote:
The White House spokeswoman Dana Perino said it expected Iran to “miss an opportunity to accept” the incentives package.
DEBKAfile’s military sources report that Operational Brimstone, starting Monday, July 21, aimed at giving military teeth to the two-week ultimatum the six world powers gave Iran in Geneva Saturday to accept the suspension of uranium enrichment or face harsh sanctions and isolation.
After warning of punitive measures against Iran, Condoleezza Rice met the six members of the Gulf Cooperation Council plus Egypt, Jordan and Iraq in Abu Dhabi. First she was briefed by Under Secretary of State William Burns.
The penalty of withholding refined oil products from Iran would be exercised by means of a partial international naval blockade of its Gulf ports.
Taking part in the 10-day exercise in the Atlantic Ocean are more than a dozen ships, including the US carrier strike group Theodore Roosevelt and expeditionary strike group Iwo Jima; the French submarine Amethyste, and the British HMS Illustrious Carrier Strike Group, as well as a Brazilian frigate.
Six vessels from the Norfolk Naval State will play the role of “enemy” forces.
About 15,000 sailors will be involved in Operation Brimstone. Both the Roosevelt and Iwo Jima will be deployed in the Middle East in the coming months.
The exercise is scheduled to end July 31, two days before the US-European ultimatum to Iran expires. Immediately after the Geneva talks ended in failure, the US State Department issued a statement giving Tehran the option of “cooperation or confrontation.”
A partial blockade of Iran’s shores, a key element of the new sanctions, would be limited to withholding from Iran supplies of benzene and other refined oil products - not foodstuffs or other commodities. Short of refining capacity, Iran has to import 40 percent of its benzene consumption and will be forced to react to the stoppage.
Operation Brimstone boasts two striking features:
1. It will include for the first time units of the US Expeditionary Combat Command, who are trained to operate in shallow coastal waters and rivers, such as the coastal waters of the Persian Gulf and the small islands around its chokepoint, the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian Revolutionary Guards marine units are posted on these islands.
The international force will have to control the islands to ensure oil shipping freed passage out to world markets.
2. The Roosevelt’s decks will for the first time host French Rafale fighter jets which will share space with US warplanes, while the only French carrier Charles de Gaulle undergoes maintenance.
Our military sources note that French warplanes have in the past performed short landings and takeoff drills on US carriers from the Charles de Gaulle, but never before taken part in a fully cooperative operational exercise.
This joint endeavor signifies that French President Nicolas Sarkozy is fully committed to a joint US-European military action if necessary to halt Iran’s progress toward a nuclear weapon.
Posted: Wed Jul 23, 2008 6:54 am Post subject: Re: US gives Iran 2 weeks or face war
KevO,
My bet is that US will not attack Iran anytime soon (say within a year or two), because such attack would finish off American economy and also show a limit of what can be achieved by American military adventure these days.
This would be a disappointingly low limit (eg with rather limited impact on Iran resulting in Iranian nuclear tests carried out soon after attack) if war went conventional and it would be an ultimate limit/end of America (and end of technological civilization as we know it) should it escalate to global nuclear confrontation.
It is certain that few monkeys in White House understand it, so they will not proceed.
It is utterly unimportant what French President (Sarkozy) think about all of that.
1. He has no influence on American or Iranian policy at all.
2. He is a clown married to a bimbo.
Joined: Apr 27, 2007 Posts: 4353 Location: The Great Sonoran Desert
Posted: Wed Jul 23, 2008 7:35 am Post subject: Re: US gives Iran 2 weeks or face war
Quote:
Operation Brimstone boasts two striking features:
1. It will include for the first time units of the US Expeditionary Combat Command, who are trained to operate in shallow coastal waters and rivers, such as the coastal waters of the Persian Gulf and the small islands around its chokepoint, the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian Revolutionary Guards marine units are posted on these islands.
Some have said that when this particular unit arrives in the PG...it is show time.
Looks like it is show time. _________________ "There must be a bogeyman; there always is, and it cannot be something as esoteric as "resource depletion." You can't go to war with that." Emersonbiggins
"... hope is a rotten-thighed whore" Niko Kazantzakis
Joined: Apr 12, 2007 Posts: 1172 Location: Central NC
Posted: Wed Jul 23, 2008 7:48 am Post subject: Re: US gives Iran 2 weeks or face war
Anyone know where in the Atlantic the exercise is taking place? The article doesn't specify. _________________ "The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences…"
Sir Winston Churchill
Joined: May 06, 2006 Posts: 873 Location: Tustin, CA
Posted: Thu Jul 24, 2008 12:24 am Post subject: Re: US gives Iran 2 weeks or face war
roccman wrote:
Quote:
Operation Brimstone boasts two striking features:
1. It will include for the first time units of the US Expeditionary Combat Command, who are trained to operate in shallow coastal waters and rivers, such as the coastal waters of the Persian Gulf and the small islands around its chokepoint, the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian Revolutionary Guards marine units are posted on these islands.
Some have said that when this particular unit arrives in the PG...it is show time.
Looks like it is show time.
Perhaps, We'll see how many of them remember the oath they took to the American Constitution. _________________ Skeptical scrutiny in both Science and Religion is the means by which deep thoughts are winnowed from deep nonsense-Carl Sagan
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