To go shopping these days, more Americans are trading in their car keys for a keyboard.
Online shopping is gaining at a time when simply filling up a gas tank to head to the mall can seem like a spending spree.
A number of retailers — including Gap, Victoria’s Secret and J. C. Penney — are experiencing double-digit sales growth at their shopping Web sites, creating a surprising bright spot during an otherwise gloomy time for sales in brick-and-mortar stores.
One popular strategy for getting shoppers’ attention is offering free shipping, in contrast to many other businesses, like airlines, that are adding surcharges and other fees to offset their higher costs.
The Web sites of Neiman Marcus, Saks, Nordstrom, Bloomingdale’s, Macy’s, Bon-Ton Stores, Aeropostale, American Eagle Outfitters, Target and Kmart were all offering a deal on shipping this week.
“With gas being such an issue, we know that mall traffic is down more than off-mall traffic,” said Mike Boylson, chief marketing officer for J. C. Penney, which had an 8.7 percent increase in Internet sales in the first quarter of this year.
That is in contrast to a 7.4 percent decrease in sales at stores open at least a year, known as same-store sales and a measure of retail health. “We see more people turning to online because it’s much more efficient in terms of time and money,” Mr. Boylson said.
_________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
I will not abide another toe.
Posted: Thu Jul 24, 2008 6:56 pm Post subject: Re: Internet Sales Up
Huge spike up in Amazon today. Their stock was up over 10%. _________________ "So while you sit and whistle Dixie with your money and your power.
I can hear the flowers a-growin in the rubble of the towers.
I hear leaders quit their lying
I hear babies quit their crying.
I hear soldiers quit their dying, one and all." - OCMS
Joined: May 06, 2006 Posts: 873 Location: Tustin, CA
Posted: Thu Jul 24, 2008 8:39 pm Post subject: Re: Internet Sales Up
I hate shopping. I buy most things off the internet, other than what I wear, it never fits! _________________ Skeptical scrutiny in both Science and Religion is the means by which deep thoughts are winnowed from deep nonsense-Carl Sagan
Posted: Thu Jul 24, 2008 8:48 pm Post subject: Re: Internet Sales Up
Niagara wrote:
smallpoxgirl wrote:
Huge spike up in Amazon today. Their stock was up over 10%.
Sorry spg, but I don't call 10% moves "huge" anymore. I used to. But not with airlines and financials popping 100 or 200% at the drop of a hat.
The markets are insane nowadays.
Yeah. Well. I guess 10% isn't big if you're American Airlines going from $4 to $4.40. It's a pretty big jump if you're Amazon going from 70.50 to 78.70. That's the biggest one day move Amazon has had in a year. I was sure glad I got out of my Amazon shorts on Tuesday anyway. That $6 opening gap would have been most unpleasant. _________________ "So while you sit and whistle Dixie with your money and your power.
I can hear the flowers a-growin in the rubble of the towers.
I hear leaders quit their lying
I hear babies quit their crying.
I hear soldiers quit their dying, one and all." - OCMS
Joined: Apr 05, 2005 Posts: 1628 Location: Springsteen Country (NJ)
Posted: Thu Jul 24, 2008 9:41 pm Post subject: Re: Internet Sales Up
smallpoxgirl wrote:
Niagara wrote:
smallpoxgirl wrote:
Huge spike up in Amazon today. Their stock was up over 10%.
Sorry spg, but I don't call 10% moves "huge" anymore. I used to. But not with airlines and financials popping 100 or 200% at the drop of a hat.
The markets are insane nowadays.
Yeah. Well. I guess 10% isn't big if you're American Airlines going from $4 to $4.40. It's a pretty big jump if you're Amazon going from 70.50 to 78.70. That's the biggest one day move Amazon has had in a year. I was sure glad I got out of my Amazon shorts on Tuesday anyway. That $6 opening gap would have been most unpleasant.
Yes, penny stocks like banks and airlines can make large moves like that all over the place, the base is so low that a few hundred million dollars in buying or selling can move them substantially. It's total market cap that matters, not the percentage moves of the stocks in question. For instance, Berkshire Hathaway has only about 2 million outstanding shares, but since the price is so high, a 10% move is extremely rare since so much money is involved. A bank with a billion shares outstanding at $6 a share can be moved a lot by the much less cash.
On a side note, I'm sorry you got out of your Amazon shorts, SPG. They probably looked cute.
Seriously, have you tried using puts instead of shorting? Much less margin required and if there's a large move against you the delta of the option declines as the stock price moves away from the strike price so that a $6.00 move only costs you about $200 or $300 per 100 share contract rather than the full $600 per lot of stock. Of course that could be 30-50% of the cash invested, but it's a lot less money than what the margin on a short stock is. Of course, when the stock does move down $6, you might only get $300 or $400 (depending on the price and delta), but as the decline accelerates the delta increases and you get to almost a dollar for dollar correspondence between the stock price and the option price as the price continues to decline.
To get back on topic, I was talking to people at a town council meeting last week and the subject of buying on the Internet came up. It appears more and more people are doing that than "running to the mall" to get things. I asked a few people if "running to the mall" might become a thing of the past if gas prices hit $6/gallon by next Summer and they said sure it would, it's already getting to that point.
Buy puts on mall operators!!!
For more information on options, see Option Volatility and Pricing by Sheldon Natenberg, available on Google Books at the preceding link. It's like the bible of option trading. _________________ Joe P. United Political Debate
"Only when the last tree is cut; only when the last river is polluted; only when the last fish is caught; only then will they realize that you cannot eat money." - Cree Indian Proverb
Posted: Thu Jul 24, 2008 9:44 pm Post subject: Re: Internet Sales Up
Since the price of everything is 100% more than last year, why wouldn't our corporate heros be getting 41% growth? _________________ People first, then things, then dollars.
There will be enslavement, cannibalism, & zombie invasions.
I gotta get that book. I've heard really good things about it. Perhaps time for another Amazon purchase.
Yeah, everybody keeps talking about how EBay is going to go down in flames. Seems to me E-Bay should do very nicely. You don't have to drive to the mall. You can buy nice used stuff for a fraction of the price of new. What's not to love. Sure you have to be careful about shipping fees, but that's nothing new. _________________ "So while you sit and whistle Dixie with your money and your power.
I can hear the flowers a-growin in the rubble of the towers.
I hear leaders quit their lying
I hear babies quit their crying.
I hear soldiers quit their dying, one and all." - OCMS
I gotta get that book. I've heard really good things about it. Perhaps time for another Amazon purchase.
Yeah, everybody keeps talking about how EBay is going to go down in flames. Seems to me E-Bay should do very nicely. You don't have to drive to the mall. You can buy nice used stuff for a fraction of the price of new. What's not to love. Sure you have to be careful about shipping fees, but that's nothing new.
I see! I do the same thing when talking to less-than-sophisticated types in describing my positions.
Perhaps between Internet purchasing and carpooling commuting and grocery shopping suburbia can last a little longer, but it's going to be at a much lower standard of living. The American Way of LifeTM is an antique, about to be relegated to the dustbin of history. We can only hope that the die-off is of the less violent kind (people starving or freezing quietly in their homes or apartments) rather than the violent kind (nuclear war)! _________________ Joe P. United Political Debate
"Only when the last tree is cut; only when the last river is polluted; only when the last fish is caught; only then will they realize that you cannot eat money." - Cree Indian Proverb
``Amazon's growth is fueled by behavior shifts rather than consumer-spending shifts,'' Scott Tilghman, an analyst at Soleil Securities Corp. in Baltimore, said yesterday in a telephone interview. ``In this economic environment, the fact that they produced that kind of growth is a pretty resounding support of a behavior shift.'' He recommends buying Amazon.com shares and doesn't own any.
Quote:
``Online retail in general is holding up very well,'' said Jeffrey Lindsay, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. in New York. ``For Amazon, it's holding up extremely well. All of the new product categories they are adding is fueling a lot of the growth.'' He recommends buying Amazon.com shares and doesn't own any.
Money where mouth is! Or is this kind of baldfacedness typical of gurus/analysts - "Buy now! Not that I'm going to!"? Or some kind of disclosure is at work? Admittedly rather out of my element. My idea of an investment is to hoard olive oil bottles. _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
I will not abide another toe.
Posted: Fri Jul 25, 2008 6:04 am Post subject: Re: Internet Sales Up
smallpoxgirl wrote:
...
Yeah, everybody keeps talking about how EBay is going to go down in flames. Seems to me E-Bay should do very nicely. You don't have to drive to the mall. You can buy nice used stuff for a fraction of the price of new. What's not to love. Sure you have to be careful about shipping fees, but that's nothing new.
Internet Party:
begin time 0:40
(so true....I don't shop ebay it has a very well-deserved "shady" reputation)
Posted: Fri Jul 25, 2008 6:34 am Post subject: Re: Internet Sales Up
Quote:
Yes, penny stocks like banks and airlines can make large moves like that all over the place,
I had to laugh when I read this - who would have though this would be true 10 years ago? You sure couldn't have convinced me, but here we are. Signs of the times aye?
In a way, I think we're looking at demand destruction here. Actual sales of fuel aren't experiencing the full hit - we have to drive to work, and the "habit" of driving is hard to kick. Well - more like the idea of "right to drive SUV with only me in it" is hard for people to let go of. All over though, we see other sectors declining. Starbucks closes 600 stores, retail is hurting...people shopping online to save a couple bucks here and there. Overall, I'd say this is a good sign - habits are starting to change to adapt to new conditions (if only slightly so far).
Joined: Sep 29, 2004 Posts: 2330 Location: Pennsylvania, USA
Posted: Fri Jul 25, 2008 6:35 am Post subject: Re: Internet Sales Up
My bet is that shopping over the internet is much less energy intensive and more efficient than the old way. Instead of shipping merchandise to the store, they leave it in their primary distribution center until you buy it, then they ship it directly to you via a parcel service. Large chain brick and mortar stores require regional distribution centers, with merchandise making several load and unload stops before it gets to the stores. It's a big shell game because if the stuff don't sell, or when one store has an excess of one item and another doesn't have enough, the merchandise needs to make more road trips.
Less duplication of services (not needing to have your own fleet of trucks and warehouses), means less trucks on the road and far fewer huge warehouses with trucks going in and out. Add to that the wrong guesses that are made by store managers on what and how much they need and you have much less risk for the internet retailer and less energy, time and logistics planning. _________________ "That's the problem with mercy, kid... It just ain't professional" - Fast Eddie, The Color of Money
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Or is this kind of baldfacedness typical of gurus/analysts - "Buy now! Not that I'm going to!"? Or some kind of disclosure is at work? Admittedly rather out of my element. My idea of an investment is to hoard olive oil bottles.
