Posted: Fri Jul 25, 2008 1:33 am Post subject: Re: US food groups plan hefty price rises
Untothislast, here in Cyprus we have traditionally had politicians that were re-elected based on only one criteria. Their stand on the Greek-Turkish issue and the divided island. This is all they have spoken about for 30-years!
Now we have chronic water shortages. I am told we have only enough water to last until the beginning of August and then we are 100% dry. Ethiopia dry! The water we were supposed to be importing from Greece at great cost is not being delivered. There are two ships anchored off the shore about 300 meters from here and they have been sitting at anchor for over two weeks now. The incompetent authorities cannot figure out how to get the unloading pipeline functioning. So not only do we not have water, but those ships are costing us thousands of euros per day in demurrage.
Ditto for the SPR. Years behind schedule. Ditto for the LPG terminal. Years behind schedule. Ditto for desalination plants. Years behind schedule. Off-shore wind and solar energy? No concrete plans. We are still generating electricity here using fuel oil. Fuel oil!!
This island is run by donkies. Everyone my age or younger who has studied abroad is planning to leave. In another generation this island will be populated not by educated Cypriots, but by North Africans and some Russians. And still the one and only issue politicians talk about is the Greek-Turkish isse and how not to resolve it. How may I ask can we put our faith in government when we have no leaders? Donkey is what donkey does.
I am not expecting a government sponsored solution to our peak oil dilemma. _________________ The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
Joined: Sep 08, 2005 Posts: 750 Location: Atlanta, GA
Posted: Fri Jul 25, 2008 4:02 am Post subject: Re: US food groups plan hefty price rises
Wow...after reading that last post, I can certainly see why you have so little faith in government to solve the problem of the day.
So, what happens if the water really does run out...everyone has to leave the island, or what? That sounds pretty downright scary to me.
But tell me, what's so hard about having the right people in government, people who know what they're doing, and people who *care* about what they're doing?? Perhaps all potential political candidates should have to pass some sort of psychological exam or something. This goes for government workers as well...hehe. _________________ Nowhere to run, nowhere to hide...
...and the meek shall inherit the Earth!
Posted: Fri Jul 25, 2008 4:19 am Post subject: Re: US food groups plan hefty price rises
Democracy is a deeply flawed system. Especially a representative democracy with its party politics and an apathetic voting public. Anyone that wants to become a politician probably should be disqualified from the job. Unfortunately, I just do not see a viable alternative? Its the worst possible system barring all others that have been tried.
But it also goes back to the values of the voters. Skandinavia gets better government because they demand it. The problems of bureaucracy, incompetence and corruption - Bic Syndrome - that affect Cypriot politics are very similar to all the Club Med countries in this region of the world. Cronyism. Backroom deals. Lack of transparency. An apathetic publicum. Island mentality. Certainly inbreeding.
Its not funny, but out of dark humor I have to chuckle. The citizens are now really starting to panic. Not in the streets. But in conversation they are saying, "oh crap! The water really is going to be turned off in maybe one or two weeks." Up until now some conserved, while others just bought bigger water reservoirs for their homes 'so they could enjoy the illusion of continuous water supply.' What a mirage that turned out to be.
I don't know? Some places like Amman in Jordan only get one day of water per week. Israel has been successfully addressing these issues. People will survive. I guess someday they may even figure out how to get water out of the tanker ships and into the local water system? But it is killing Cyprus' reputation as a tourist destination or place to invest. The rich and beautiful are not going to come to Cyprus if they cannot fill their swimming pools or take a shower. And a large portion of the local economy either relies on tourism that higher airfares are hurting or on housing and real estate development. There is no industry per se. Of course, market gardening and agriculture are also reliant on cheap, abundant water as well.
So we are pretty much on the pointy end of the stick of resource depletion and climate change issues. It is not just a developing world issue anymore. Its coming to a country near you soon in some form or another. The people here now are just resigned to being poorly governed. Soon that may turn to anger. That might be the best thing to happen to them. Get upset and demand change. _________________ The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
Posted: Fri Jul 25, 2008 8:56 am Post subject: Re: US food groups plan hefty price rises
When i was a kid, travel overseas was for the wealthy only. We will probably go back to a semblance of that with decreasing supplies and rising prices.
And, if everyone in America ate one third less, it would not hurt them a bit. I notice more and more what is in ppls carts. Candy, chips, soda, ice cream, these are all unnecessary. We have cut out the snacks and junk and our bills went WAY down and we have lost lots of weight too.
Posted: Fri Jul 25, 2008 10:20 am Post subject: Re: US food groups plan hefty price rises
MrBill wrote:
Democracy is a deeply flawed system. Especially a representative democracy with its party politics and an apathetic voting public. Anyone that wants to become a politician probably should be disqualified from the job. Unfortunately, I just do not see a viable alternative? Its the worst possible system barring all others that have been tried.
The biggest problem is the apathetic public. People in most part of the "Democratic world" have become consumers, not citizens. How many DO know really what is on the political agenda? Most vote (if at all) based on slogans, not on the merits of each proposal. The idea to be "living in a democracy" is good enough for most people.
I like the system that Heinlein proposed in Starship Troopers (the book, not the movie), in which you only became a full citizen when you had servered your country in a variety of ways and thus understood what it took to run the country / be the country.
Quote:
But it also goes back to the values of the voters. Skandinavia gets better government because they demand it. The problems of bureaucracy, incompetence and corruption - Bic Syndrome - that affect Cypriot politics are very similar to all the Club Med countries in this region of the world. Cronyism. Backroom deals. Lack of transparency. An apathetic publicum. Island mentality. Certainly inbreeding.
Now now now, don't think that happens in North America either. I was talking to a couple that had opened up a shop down the street from me. They were telling me just how Fark up the Vancouver system is and that essentially you come close to bribing people to get the necessary (and convoluted) permits.
The problem is that most people want it both ways: Being taken care of by the Government, but not being bothered by it either. And that's how most people vote (if they vote).
Quote:
Its not funny, but out of dark humor I have to chuckle. The citizens are now really starting to panic. Not in the streets. But in conversation they are saying, "oh crap! The water really is going to be turned off in maybe one or two weeks." Up until now some conserved, while others just bought bigger water reservoirs for their homes 'so they could enjoy the illusion of continuous water supply.' What a mirage that turned out to be.
Coming to parts of North America real soon as well. The water picture in a lot of places isn't very pretty. Vegas being the most obvious thing, but so is LA and many many other parts. Not to mention all the water that gets put into the desert for agriculture (let's ignore Golf courses).
Quote:
So we are pretty much on the pointy end of the stick of resource depletion and climate change issues. It is not just a developing world issue anymore. Its coming to a country near you soon in some form or another. The people here now are just resigned to being poorly governed. Soon that may turn to anger. That might be the best thing to happen to them. Get upset and demand change.
You know, if it would just be a problem of politics I would agree, but there are also the resource depletion and the impeding climate change (human caused or not is secondary) and neither of which is really a political issue, at least not anymore. I think we're on the side of the curve where it has taken a life of it's own.
Posted: Fri Jul 25, 2008 10:30 am Post subject: Re: US food groups plan hefty price rises
I work on water rights for state govts. When it gets bad enough, they will shut off the golf courses and irrigation of some crops and there is plenty of water. One golf course in kansas uses about 200 million gallons of water a YEAR. Plenty for a huge town.
Palm springs has like 200 golf courses or something like that. Same for all of the SW. Add in football fields and parks and lawns and we have only an allocation problem. Plenty of water out there. Trust me on that.
Posted: Fri Jul 25, 2008 10:43 pm Post subject: Re: US food groups plan hefty price rises
joelcolorado wrote:
When i was a kid, travel overseas was for the wealthy only. We will probably go back to a semblance of that with decreasing supplies and rising prices.
....
ha ha I remember those days and I'm not really that old.
We live in a world where NOTHING is exotic.
1) chocolate from Europe
2) tropical fruit from Central America
3) spices from south east Asia
4) coffee beans from Africa
5) wild (not farmed) sea food from the American North West
*yawn*
Nothing special.
A middle class person can walk into a big-box store anywhere on this planet and get ALL those things.
I totally agree, PO is going to re-introduce the middle-class society to a much more "humble" selection of food choices.
//
add on
Of course ALL those things listed above will be available post peak but it will be considered a special treat, not an everyday occurrence.
PO == the end of American teenagers drinking Starbucks with coffee beans that came from the island of Sumatra.
Joined: Jul 02, 2008 Posts: 437 Location: Espinho, Porto, Portugal
Posted: Mon Jul 28, 2008 6:02 am Post subject: Re: US food groups plan hefty price rises
We're going way off-topic, but the topic is both interesting and important. Cool!
I thought Portugal had those very problems (apathy, little interest for the economic-environmental problems, bad politicians) until I read MrBill's post. Incredible stuff! It's the same problems we have, but on a much larger scale.
Do you guys think the trouble ahead will force people out of their apathetic, business-as-usual complacence? Will people get out on the streets and demand a change? I certainly hope so, it's the best for all of us.
MrBill, it must be scary reading Collapse while living in an island and being aware of so many problems. It certainly was scary for me, and I live in mainland Europe. You're probably aware than, if Cypriot's economy fails, and there's nothing to buy water and with, you're living in Africa, Sahara style. Greece probably wouldn't allow a real downturn, but meanwhile you'd all suffer a lot. I understand you need a real, as free as possible market to keep supplies when things get sour. What's your economy's value? How do you make real money, as a society, with which to buy basic stuff? If it's tourism, it's gonna hurt. Here in Portugal it's already hurting, mostly because of fuel prices. Do you think more local production could help? And, now I am asking, is there enough capital to invest in local production? _________________ Give anyone a lever long enough and they can change the world. It's unreliable levers that are the problem.
Posted: Mon Jul 28, 2008 7:17 am Post subject: Re: US food groups plan hefty price rises
The traditional economy of the island is toast. Agricultural land has been transformed into housing and coastline real-estate development. That development depends on foreigners moving to Cyprus or spending their holidays here. Both agricuture on the remaining land and tourism depend wholly on water. A natural resource Cyprus no longer can depend on. Hotel guests use pools, showers, towels, etc. that need water. Their kitchens and bars are also heavy users of water. Holiday homes and retirement villas also use large amounts of water for the pool, etc.
All that new development uses air conditioning. Electricity here is generated using heating oil. Heating oil is $150 per barrel FOB ARA, so tack on shipping and handling as well as generating costs before it is turned into A/C. We do have solar, but mostly for hotwater heating. Individual homes have a greater capacity to go to solar for air conditioning. But apartment buildings do not have the rooftop capacity. So it is used mainly for hotwater, while the rest of the apartment is connected to the grid.
Cyprus wanted to build more golf courses, but now due to water shortages that no longer looks feasible. The cost of airfare to fly to Cyprus is high. That is due to a near monopoly by Cyprus Airlines, but also the high land fees charged to other scheduled and charter airlines. This deters bargain tourists and Cyprus is not sufficiently upmarket to attract the rich and beautiful. We are farther away from major European markets and lack the tourist infrastructure like public transport, so most holiday makers are not repeat customers, unless they have friends or family living here.
The eastern Mediterranean is devoid of commercial fish stocks. Wild fish easily costs 50 euros per kilo (or $36 per pound). We do have fish farming, but fish have to eat something. So the commercial fishing fleet is next to nothing. There is no canning industry. The tuna run is now only sporadic and much smaller than it used to be. There is some dairy. And a little grain farming, but the island is simply not that large. It used to support a population of 200-300.000 and now there are approximately 1 million living on the island if I count the north and south sides of the island.
If the north-south issue was resolved then the south might be able to import water from the north that comes there via a pipeline from Turkey. This might be one of the issues to resolve the conflict. Water scarcity with no other alternatives is a pretty big incentive. Israel has solved their water issue via desalination. We have one plant here built by IDE, but we need at least 3 or 4 using offshore wind power and solar.
Quote:
Israel's desalination plant in Ashkelon, the coastal city in the south of the country, is polluting the water in the Mediterranean sea, Globes reported.
The facility, which is controlled by IDE Technologies Ltd., discharges 6,500 cubic meters of water every hour that contain 400 tons of iron, the newspaper said, without saying where it got the information.
While there is iron in sea water, the ministry of environment is concerned that a higher dose may affect fish, Globes said. The iron is added to the water during desalination in order to separate the salt, the newspaper said.
The company said in response that it's investing in a facility that will dilute the iron, Globes said.
source: July 28 (Bloomberg)
But as I mentioned before these mega projects are years behind schedule and mired in corruption. There are natural gas deposits offshore, but they are deep and will be expensive to exploit. Cyprus, Turkey (remember we need their water), Syria, Lebanon (has its own Syrian problem) and Egypt all lay claim to some or all of that natural gas. The need a workable political plan to access for everyone's benefit, but politics and corruption also get in the way of a solution.
As if the island does not have enough problems of its own we now have an illegal immigrant problem with economic migrants arriving from the ME and Africa via a ferry service between Syria and N. Cyprus. S. Cyprus says this ferry service is illegal. N. Cyprus does not really care as most of the illegal migrants are trying to cross the border into S. Cyprus and claim EU assylum. So that is a growing problem just like in Italy, Spain and Portugal. Regional security issues have to address illegal immigration. Especially in light of other problems. Again back to Jarrod Diamond's 'life-raft issue' in Collapse.
The island had put its future in 'white collar' jobs related to finance, banking, accounting with jobs for lawyers in the so-called 'information industry' which sounds really good - high paying jobs, attracting international talent with a low-impact on the environment - but building that type of international financial center is not easy. There is a lot of competition from incumbents and other start-ups, and as you can tell from all the other problems that I have catalogued here for you that the politicians suffer more from BIC Syndrome than getting kudos for their forward thinking strategy and operational excellency in its execution.
So while the Cypriots all drive around in luxury cars, high end SUVs and like to see and be seen at the cafes - as they have all sold their family's farmland for real estate development, and now do not have to work (the rest bought everything on credit) - I am waiting for the local economy to implode. I figure the local real estate market could easily contract by 30-percent. And there is more supply coming onto the market in the next 12-18 months. Its a bubble just waiting to burst. Along with the strong euro, a weak global economy, falling tourism, high energy prices and the island's water shortages it is just a matter of time. Not if. It is simply a microcosm of the global economy. Time to call it done and stick a fork in it! ; - )) _________________ The organized state is a wonderful invention whereby everyone can live at someone else's expense.
Joined: Jul 02, 2008 Posts: 437 Location: Espinho, Porto, Portugal
Posted: Mon Jul 28, 2008 8:38 am Post subject: Re: US food groups plan hefty price rises
Trouble in Paradise, isn't it?
I've been reading the way poorer countries may quickly get (are getting?) dumped out of the oil market because they can't afford the thing. I suppose the same may happen for the food market with the increases.
As for the "life-raft issue", I'm seeing a lot of pressure from people here in Portugal to stop the immigrants from getting in, because those people are already being perceived as a menace. Me and a friend used to say that, if things get really out of hand, the Mediterranean will become the new red sea, because the Army, the Navy and the Air Force may get orders to stop immigrants before they get in. I suppose it won't be pretty.
Another thing: we also got the whole "added value" jobs in a brand new "information society". Funny there's more information and people care less about it. White collar jobs - when the local production economy goes bust, get people to trade info so they'll be occupied. That may cost us in the future. _________________ Give anyone a lever long enough and they can change the world. It's unreliable levers that are the problem.
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