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Smudger
Heavy Crude
Joined: Apr 05, 2007
Posts: 155
Location: Great Britain
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 Posted: Fri Jul 25, 2008 11:20 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27) |
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my sense is the unwind is becuase of the expected reduction oil demand. this is a good thing as it shows that people can reduce their useage fairly quickly. I believe however it is a temporary situation (albeit I hope it lasts into next year) because:
China/Indian is still growing and at some point the reduction in oil demand in Europe and the USA will lessen (until esp. in the USA they retool with move fuel efficient cars) while asia will keep growing.
in a year or too (maybe post the November EIA report...) it will be clear oil production is peaking/peaked and the oil furtures will rise forceing the spot price up.
My hope is the oil price stays where it is for two reasons. First it is higher enough to make people switch to fuel efficient cars and reduce the unnecessary journeys, second if it stays level its effect on inflation will reduce helping to stabalise the western economies. a stable but energy aware economy is exactly what you want in a few years time when oil supply begins to fall. |
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smallpoxgirl
Moderator
Joined: Nov 08, 2004
Posts: 5636
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| Posted: Fri Jul 25, 2008 11:25 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27) |
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| chuck6877 wrote: | | I always look at 321energy.com for natural gas prices, but what is the chart symbol for natural gas? |
Nymex symbols are a two letter prefix, then a one letter month code, then the year.
Natural gas August contract is NGU08 or in some systems ngu8. Crude August contract is CLU08.
Unfortunately, I don't think Stockchart is set up to do commodities.
_________________
"So while you sit and whistle Dixie with your money and your power.
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I hear leaders quit their lying
I hear babies quit their crying.
I hear soldiers quit their dying, one and all." - OCMS |
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smallpoxgirl
Moderator
Joined: Nov 08, 2004
Posts: 5636
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| Posted: Fri Jul 25, 2008 12:22 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27) |
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| smallpoxgirl wrote: | | Natural gas August contract is NGU08 or in some systems ngu8. Crude August contract is CLU08. |
Actually I misspoke. NGU08 and CLU08 are September contract not August. They both terminate (i.e. stop trading) in August though. NGU08 terminates on 8/27 and CLU08 terminates on 8/20.
_________________
"So while you sit and whistle Dixie with your money and your power.
I can hear the flowers a-growin in the rubble of the towers.
I hear leaders quit their lying
I hear babies quit their crying.
I hear soldiers quit their dying, one and all." - OCMS |
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smallpoxgirl
Moderator
Joined: Nov 08, 2004
Posts: 5636
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| Posted: Fri Jul 25, 2008 1:22 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27) |
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You know, if you go back and look at the weekly charts, there's been a pretty steady long term uptrend going since the beginning of 2007. Just before it got to $100 it did the same thing. It shot up very sharply, then it stopped short of $100, dropped, and formed a trading range. Eventually the trend line caught up before it conclusively broke through. I wonder if it's not going to do the same thing again here. Bounce back and forth between 120 and 150 for several months before finally breaking through 150.
_________________
"So while you sit and whistle Dixie with your money and your power.
I can hear the flowers a-growin in the rubble of the towers.
I hear leaders quit their lying
I hear babies quit their crying.
I hear soldiers quit their dying, one and all." - OCMS |
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TheDude
Expert
Joined: Apr 06, 2006
Posts: 3329
Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
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| Posted: Fri Jul 25, 2008 1:44 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27) |
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Precisely how much demand is being destroyed is hard to say, or what the overall impact on world GDP will be therefrom, but shortages are undeniably happening, in India, in Pakistan, in Saudi Arabia.
Wait a minute - that Saudi Arabia?
Diesel shortage worsens for farmers
| Quote: | BURAIDAH – Rural areas of the Kingdom are facing an increasing problem of diesel shortage which is threatening their ability to produce and irrigate crops properly.
The problem originally confined to the Taif region has now spread to Al-Jouf and Hail regions.
Saleh Al-Shayea Al-Krei’, owner of an agricultural project in Al-Jouf, said the filling station in Al-Jouf is unable to supply diesel distributors with sufficient quantities, as it has decreased the quantities granted to farmers by 60%.
Chairman of the Agricultural Committee in Al-Jouf Region Chamber of Commerce and Industry, Ghali Mubarak Al-Fehaiqi, said an emergency meeting would be held this week to discuss the increasing fuel shortages with farmers and to suggest solutions.
Assistant Director General of Agricultural Affairs for the Al-Jouf region, Khamees Anan Al-Daghmani said farmers are suffering because of fuel scarcity in the region. |
Explanations? What, the higher ups delegated exports of diesel as more important than supply to farmers? But KSA has become a net grain importer...and with record prices who cares about a bit of a shortfall in exports when your nation is as politically unstable as KSA is?
Maybe they're busy bailing out Pakistan - Whipple says the Saudis have let Pakistan run up a 6 billion dollar tab so far. Wonder what the appeal is? Warheads?
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TheDude
Expert
Joined: Apr 06, 2006
Posts: 3329
Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
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| Posted: Fri Jul 25, 2008 2:11 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27) |
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Decided this was worth its own thread.
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chuck6877
Intermediate Crude
Joined: May 16, 2005
Posts: 526
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| Posted: Fri Jul 25, 2008 10:54 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27) |
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| smallpoxgirl wrote: | | smallpoxgirl wrote: | | Natural gas August contract is NGU08 or in some systems ngu8. Crude August contract is CLU08. |
Actually I misspoke. NGU08 and CLU08 are September contract not August. They both terminate (i.e. stop trading) in August though. NGU08 terminates on 8/27 and CLU08 terminates on 8/20. |
Found it with a search: $NATGAS
From looking at the weekly chart $9.00 looks like it's going to be serious support . Why?
$9.00 was resistance twice before: Nov 2006 and Nov 2007
What was resistance will now be support..........
Chuck |
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Armageddon
Fusion
Joined: Apr 13, 2005
Posts: 3009
Location: St.Louis, Mo
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| Posted: Mon Jul 28, 2008 8:12 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27) |
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| Oil is about ready for another blast off. $140.00 by Friday ? I can sense it. |
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darren
Heavy Crude
Joined: Jul 07, 2005
Posts: 133
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| Posted: Mon Jul 28, 2008 8:38 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27) |
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Prices are still at a level that would have caused a heart attack a year ago. When oil goes back to $38 you can come here and mock us. |
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nth
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Feb 24, 2005
Posts: 1976
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| Posted: Mon Jul 28, 2008 11:22 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27) |
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| darren wrote: |
Prices are still at a level that would have caused a heart attack a year ago. When oil goes back to $38 you can come here and mock us. |
Hrm... let's see. oil prices are at record territory. oil production is down year over year.
What more evidence you need that we have hit peak oil?
oil production is down because we cannot produce any more and not because of demand is down. We know this because oil prices just keep climbing. |
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Homesteader
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Apr 12, 2007
Posts: 1165
Location: Central NC
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| Posted: Tue Jul 29, 2008 5:35 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27) |
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| nth wrote: |
What more evidence you need that we have hit peak oil?
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A prime-time address on peak oil by the leaders politicians of the free over-consuming countries of the world.
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lowem
Light Sweet Crude
Joined: Jul 19, 2004
Posts: 1158
Location: Singapore
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| Posted: Tue Jul 29, 2008 8:20 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27) |
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Dropping to $120 support level. Now we're talking.
Next support level, $110.
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http://www.post1.net/lowem/page/livequotes |
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AirlinePilot
Moderator
Joined: Apr 05, 2005
Posts: 2463
Location: South of Atlanta
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| Posted: Tue Jul 29, 2008 9:42 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27) |
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This large drop is giving me one glaring message.
Traders do not believe in PO. The market does not believe in PO. The folks buying and selling oil do not believe PO is happening.
If we stay down or get below the magical 100$ mark the signals will have failed and demand will skyrocket again as folks just say " Look! all is well!" No need to cut back anymore now!.
We actually need the higher prices to help us do something.
Silly Humans. |
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emersonbiggins
Moderator
Joined: Jul 10, 2005
Posts: 5045
Location: Dallas
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| Posted: Tue Jul 29, 2008 9:45 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27) |
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It seems we prefer shortages rather than rationing by price. We will soon see if that was the wise choice.
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"It's called the American Dream because you'd have to be asleep to believe it."
George Carlin |
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dukey
Fission
Joined: Feb 20, 2005
Posts: 2021
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| Posted: Tue Jul 29, 2008 9:55 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27) |
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| AirlinePilot wrote: | This large drop is giving me one glaring message.
Traders do not believe in PO. The market does not believe in PO. The folks buying and selling oil do not believe PO is happening.
If we stay down or get below the magical 100$ mark the signals will have failed and demand will skyrocket again as folks just say " Look! all is well!" No need to cut back anymore now!.
We actually need the higher prices to help us do something.
Silly Humans. |
AP, only the futures market would reflect whether traders believe in PO. The current spot would really be unaffected unless they want to stock pile it. |
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