I think this is the beginnings of an economy based on perpetual growth and fossil fuel energy running headlong into geological energy constraints. Basically I see an undulatory downward path for the rest of my life. From here out, I think any rallies in our economic condition are going to be met with spiking commodity prices that knock us right back down.
Do you think the battle over the ethics that threaten our very survival will be more fierce and devastating to the ecosystem than the battle over the last scraps of food and energy?
Battle over ethics will devastate the carrying capacity more.
18%
[ 15 ]
Battle over food and energy will devastate the carrying capacity more.
81%
[ 65 ]
Total Votes : 80
Author
Message
Devin Heavy Crude
Joined: Apr 07, 2008 Posts: 202
Posted: Wed Jul 23, 2008 4:57 am Post subject: Re: MonteQuest on the Population Taboo
Posted: Fri Jul 25, 2008 8:13 am Post subject: Re: MonteQuest on the Population Taboo
Im pretty new around here .
Spent the last like 3 daysa reading this thred , very interesting .
I just want to weigh in in support of Monte's logic .
Yes it sucks ,But something should be done to control and drasticly reduce our population . "I dont mean ending any current lives im talking like by dramaticly reduceing birthrate by whatever means are required" .
Now realisticly we all know that likely wont happen ... So mother nature will have to lay a very horrible and violent smackdown upon our species .
Joined: Jun 13, 2007 Posts: 3869 Location: Minniesotuh
Posted: Fri Jul 25, 2008 12:09 pm Post subject: Re: MonteQuest on the Population Taboo
Mack12345 wrote:
I just want to weigh in in support of Monte's logic . Yes it sucks ,But something should be done to control and drasticly reduce our population,
This is a topic that has been and is being discussed by thousands, maybe hundreds of thousands of people in the past and currently.
Many who accept the concept of overshoot/dieoff grow frustrated when they can see the best solutions shot down (no pun intended) by people who refuse to give up their lifestyles, by people who breed children constantly with no regard to the carrying capacity, by people who refuse to understand the damage that has been done to the planet is, in some if not most cases, irreversible, etc.
Overshoot has been discussed and debated for many, many decades.
Maybe, just maybe, if more people can be added to the slowly growing ranks of those who understand the concept and want to figure out how to adequately deal with the situation like you, Monte, AND the rest of the posters here, maybe one day we'll come up with a suitable, acceptable resolution to the matter.
Edited to fix typo. _________________ "RRrrruuuunnnn!!!" ~Apocalypto
Last edited by Ferretlover on Fri Jul 25, 2008 4:11 pm; edited 1 time in total
Posted: Fri Jul 25, 2008 1:54 pm Post subject: Re: MonteQuest on the Population Taboo
RedStateGreen wrote:
Medicine has been completely corrupted from a triage where those who got the most benefit from medical care got the focus to one where those who can pay (or litigate) the most got the focus. This I believe is why the $250,000 ICU bills for rich people (and relatives of the same) doomed to die but lack of a $25 dose of antibiotics sentences a poor child to death. It would take years of retraining to get the fear of litigation out of the current medical system.
Good point.
It's difficult to imagine our US lawyers allowing any reduction in litigation though.
Joined: Jun 05, 2006 Posts: 237 Location: Over the tracks, left under the overpass, right, third boxcar on the left, ask for Jack
Posted: Fri Jul 25, 2008 8:17 pm Post subject: Re: MonteQuest on the Population Taboo
Fascinating idea: Pre-emptive action to avoid a later, larger problem? Yes, it’s being endlessly posted about so I might as well add my take.
I think a large part of the controversy lies with the shifting nature of morals and ethics. These are products of their time. When all lower survival needs are satisfied, we then have the luxury of fine tuning our attitudes, behaviours and beliefs. Unquestionably, the liberal thoughts, attitudes and practices that have permeated Western societal thinking have been born of plentiful times. Many have found their way into common law and even some established religious denominations are ‘upgrading’ their approach under the influence of modern thinking.
Given this steady build up of liberal thinking, it is unlikely that there will be a complementary attitude change that will match the pace of the calamities to come as we slide down the depletion curve. We are in as much of an attitude overshoot as we are a population overshoot. Overlay this with the universal desire that hopes circumstances will either improve or not become worse and there is a powerful psychological barrier to doing anything that would mitigate any potential threat. The political dithering that left Europe vulnerable in the 1930s is classic. Since the general thinking now is that everything will proceed as usual except for an inconvenient rise in the price of gasoline, there is no reason to think that people are in any way concerned about limiting family size on that basis. The state, the church, the economy are all hooked into a paradigm of continued growth of population and ‘stuff’. With few exceptions, there is a total absence of realization of the fragility of the food supply, particularly in Western societies. There are some gathering economic clouds, but those will blow over as they always have before.
I think the demographic math shows that we are past the sustainability point already. The logical projections from this concept are totally alien to the current mindset. The idea that children might starve from the day they are born just never crosses anyone’s mind. Taking steps now to limit and reduce human population in the near future might be a logical response, but it will go absolutely nowhere. Even the most obvious action of birth control raises the hackles of a large section of the population, not just the fundies. Reason won’t cut it and even if it does, it’s too late. Pre-emptive aggressive action taken to forestall a possible future threat is rare. Preparations maybe, but action, no. Even in animal husbandry, herds are not killed off because there is a threat of mad cow, only when the disease has been identified. There is always the threat of mad cow.
However, the growing impact of PO will change all that. Mirroring the oil supply, food prices will first escalate, then food itself will become progressively less available to the point of crisis and beyond. With malnourishment a daily companion, social and economic turmoil, illness and disease will proliferate resulting in the predicted massive die offs of all age groups over time. Violence will take it’s toll.
Only when that point is reached, do I think that the present day morality will be abandoned in favour of far more practical and self serving interests. The old, infirm, incapacitated, incapable and deformed at birth would all be increasingly vulnerable as a new reality takes hold. Fundamental survival interests will dominate until a closer balance is achieved again. But these are an after the fact response to unimaginably changed circumstances, not a premeditated program to stave off the event from happening. I think that at this time, we are quite incapable of actually carrying out the kinds of actions that Monte and others were discussing as an intellectual exercise in the earliest posts. They may be intellectually and logically reasonable, but most are grossly morally abhorrent to our present mindset.
As a species and civilisation, we’ll simply wait for the inevitable, jump off the proverbial cliff and suffer the consequences, because we are culturally, morally and maybe genetically incapable of doing anything else. Those closest to the land will have not so far to fall figuratively and will suffer much less than those who are far removed from it. Individually, it’s a crapshoot.
However, all bets are off if there is some psycho out there, motivated by megalomania or some twisted version of saving the earth who has access to an untreatable virus and the means to deliver it. Oh wait, that’s terrorism and we’re protected against that.
Posted: Tue Jul 29, 2008 10:36 am Post subject: Re: MonteQuest on the Population Taboo
I want to preface what I am about to say with the admission that I am athiest and pro-abortion (so no agendas), but...
This is madness. The whole purpose of life is to survive long enough to procreate. Sure, ideally we should reduce our population but this is never going to happen. If you think it is difficult to convince people that PO is a problem and they should modify their lifestyle how are you going to convince them to not have sex??? Cmon. For some people in the world, contraception is available but for millions it is not. Even in the developed world it is far from foolproof. In the three years between taking the pill and having a tubal ligation (both modern interventions) I was pregnant three times despite employing other devices!!
I could go on and on but perhaps I can sum up with this:
Lets issue the girls with a vibrator and a supply of batteries and let the boys sort themselves out with playboy or whatever- and you guys (and girls) would all be happy, right??
This board is all about the macro and nothing about the micro - and the micro is what PEOPLE are all about.
Did you happen to watch any of the footage of the Chinese parents that lost their one child in the crumbling schools of the earthquake? I don't think carrying capacity and PO was foremost in their minds.
"Realism is a fine thing" - just me (nobody special)
Joined: Oct 06, 2006 Posts: 1371 Location: East Texas
Posted: Tue Jul 29, 2008 11:28 am Post subject: Re: MonteQuest on the Population Taboo
I have made similar notes on similar threads, but just to comment..
The only sources of REAL population control are those that either drastically limit the number of live births; or those which result in the death of adults at very young ages. We want to lump assisted suicide and application of advanced medical technology for the extension of life for elderly rich into the mix; but the reality is that they result in absolutely no significant change in population dynamics.
It flat, DOES NOT MATTER in this discussion, whether some elderly rich guy lives to 75 instead of 72.
It *DOES* matter whether or not some 32 year old female gets a card of cheap antibiotics to treat a wound infection.
It *DOES* matter whether or not a 20 year old female is given a government mandated choice between sterilization + free college, or fertility + poverty.
For fairness sakes I suppose, add the males into the snipping line; but never fool yourself that it'd make any difference at all in conception rates.
Personally; I think the natural result and consequences are more suitable, just, and appropriate; than the kinds of actions governments would have to take to achieve REAL progress towards population reductions. _________________ Yes, we are. As we are.
And so shall we remain; Until the end.
Joined: Oct 06, 2006 Posts: 1371 Location: East Texas
Posted: Tue Jul 29, 2008 11:53 am Post subject: Re: MonteQuest on the Population Taboo
turner wrote:
Ok but why is it always the girls that must make the sacrifice?
Like I said... include the guys in the puzzle for fairness sake. Not suggesting it could or would happen any other way.
However, it is the nature of population dynamics that births are limited by the number of fertile FEMALES in the group. Its a much muddier picture than any absolutist comment of course; but the reality is what it is; it doesn't take very many fertile males, even within a group of primates, to completely mitigate any reduction in average male fertility.
Human reproductive patterns make it even worse. With care, almost all live births result in live adults; a female could have intercourse several hundred times per conception and still greatly exceed replacement rate; human females are fertile for DECADES, more than enough time to occasionally run across the fertile male.
So its not that the girls "must make the sacrifice"; but rather, its only the sacrifices made by the girls that have any impact on the question. Snip the boys for entertainment value I suppose. Which is yet another reason why I think its just a bad idea to even start off down this road. _________________ Yes, we are. As we are.
And so shall we remain; Until the end.
Posted: Tue Jul 29, 2008 12:07 pm Post subject: Re: MonteQuest on the Population Taboo
I disagree with AgentR
The males are the primary ones to sterilize not the females.
A woman once pregnant is out of the baby business for 9 months. In that same period of time one male can fertilize countless numbers of other females. He is never out of the baby making business.
You can sterilize either the countless women or the one male that can fertilize them all.
EDIT: Also women have a limited time frame to reproduce. Men have no such restraints. We can be just as potent at 90 as when we were at 18. If he can get it to rise to the occation. _________________ Nothing is more dangerous than a man with nothing left to lose but has everything left to gain.
Joined: Oct 06, 2006 Posts: 1371 Location: East Texas
Posted: Tue Jul 29, 2008 12:23 pm Post subject: Re: MonteQuest on the Population Taboo
HEADER_RACK wrote:
The males are the primary ones to sterilize not the females.
Unless we are talking about extremely high rates of male sterilization, in which case you'd be right...
What is to prevent the fertile female from seeking out a fertile male at a time she is able to conceive. She only has to get this idea in her head twice over the span of some three decades for her to meet replacement rate.
Do not labor under the mistaken view that most women do not want to become pregnant. Most do want children at some point during their fertile life cycle. _________________ Yes, we are. As we are.
And so shall we remain; Until the end.
Posted: Tue Jul 29, 2008 12:42 pm Post subject: Re: MonteQuest on the Population Taboo
To have any effect on over population we would be talking about extremely high rates of sterilization not matter which gender we chose.
I believe though it is a quicker and easier process to do it to males than females. I also think that it is easier to reverse in males than females. Would need someone with medical expertise to chime in if this is true or not. _________________ Nothing is more dangerous than a man with nothing left to lose but has everything left to gain.
Joined: Sep 16, 2007 Posts: 1431 Location: Oklahoma City, USA
Posted: Tue Jul 29, 2008 1:16 pm Post subject: Re: MonteQuest on the Population Taboo
HEADER_RACK wrote:
To have any effect on over population we would be talking about extremely high rates of sterilization not matter which gender we chose.
I believe though it is a quicker and easier process to do it to males than females. I also think that it is easier to reverse in males than females. Would need someone with medical expertise to chime in if this is true or not.
True on both counts. Major surgery for women vs. outpatient (15 min) surgery for men. It is easier to reverse on men but in both cases there's a big chance you won't be able to.
There are a couple of reversible long term birth control methods women can use (IUD and implantable); both are good for at least five years. Of the two, I'd take the implants, as an IUD gives you a greater chance of intrauterine infections and requires some skill to remove. _________________ Conservation is conservative
It is not the strongest of the species that survive, nor the most intelligent, but the ones most responsive to change. -- Charles Darwin
Joined: Jun 05, 2006 Posts: 237 Location: Over the tracks, left under the overpass, right, third boxcar on the left, ask for Jack
Posted: Tue Jul 29, 2008 4:29 pm Post subject: Re: MonteQuest on the Population Taboo
turner wrote:
This is madness. The whole purpose of life is to survive long enough to procreate.
Welcome turner.
Don’t confuse posts about the macro with the posters inability to comprehend the micro. The intersection of those is the frustration faultline. The macro view is that cheap energy has permitted overshoot in the world population and coincidentally cause significant environmental damage. Only action at the micro level can hope to change that now, short of unimaginable planned macro actions, which as Monte has pointed out, are taboo and in any case are most unlikely to be implemented. The problem is that even in the unlikely event that cautionary action is taken now at the micro level, it will still take too long to have effect. In short, we’re screwed. The natural course of events will take place, aided most likely by human stupidity, and it won’t be pretty. That’s why there are so many doomers around.
Browse through the earlier parts of this thread, read many of the other threads and you will see why people come to the conclusions they hold and why a die off in some form or another is considered to be inevitable. It’s really irrelevant what one thinks about it, what belief system one subscribes to, once the demographic maths and the vulnerability everyone has to oil dependency are understood. One can only use the available time to prepare to one’s best ability or ignore the whole issue and hope it goes away.
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