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AirlinePilot
Moderator
Joined: Apr 05, 2005
Posts: 2608
Location: South of Atlanta
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 Posted: Tue Jul 29, 2008 9:42 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27) |
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This large drop is giving me one glaring message.
Traders do not believe in PO. The market does not believe in PO. The folks buying and selling oil do not believe PO is happening.
If we stay down or get below the magical 100$ mark the signals will have failed and demand will skyrocket again as folks just say " Look! all is well!" No need to cut back anymore now!.
We actually need the higher prices to help us do something.
Silly Humans. |
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emersonbiggins
Moderator
Joined: Jul 10, 2005
Posts: 5194
Location: Dallas
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| Posted: Tue Jul 29, 2008 9:45 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27) |
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It seems we prefer shortages rather than rationing by price. We will soon see if that was the wise choice.
_________________
"It's called the American Dream because you'd have to be asleep to believe it."
George Carlin |
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dukey
Fission
Joined: Feb 20, 2005
Posts: 2069
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| Posted: Tue Jul 29, 2008 9:55 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27) |
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| AirlinePilot wrote: | This large drop is giving me one glaring message.
Traders do not believe in PO. The market does not believe in PO. The folks buying and selling oil do not believe PO is happening.
If we stay down or get below the magical 100$ mark the signals will have failed and demand will skyrocket again as folks just say " Look! all is well!" No need to cut back anymore now!.
We actually need the higher prices to help us do something.
Silly Humans. |
AP, only the futures market would reflect whether traders believe in PO. The current spot would really be unaffected unless they want to stock pile it. |
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skeptik
Heavy Crude
Joined: Aug 24, 2005
Posts: 442
Location: Costa Geriatrica, Spain
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| Posted: Tue Jul 29, 2008 9:57 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27) |
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| TheDude wrote: |
Explanations? What, the higher ups delegated exports of diesel as more important than supply to farmers? |
Looks like the Saudis have been caught on the hop by surging domestic demand for petroleum products. Their economies are 'hot' because of all the money they've been making from the high price of crude. I'm guessing they don't have enough refinery capacity to cope with domestic demand for diesel. Do they even export any diesel? |
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Dan1195
Heavy Crude
Joined: Mar 19, 2005
Posts: 277
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| Posted: Tue Jul 29, 2008 10:08 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27) |
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| I have to wonder how much more OPEC will let the price of oil decline before they suggest cutting back on production. It is not exactly clear what their current "floor" is. The other question is do other buyers previously priced out of the market prop of the price by trying to reenter it before OPEC starts making noises. I think barring OPEC interference we do get back to $110. |
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Starvid
Fission
Joined: Feb 20, 2005
Posts: 2888
Location: Uppsala, Sweden
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| Posted: Tue Jul 29, 2008 10:35 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27) |
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| emersonbiggins wrote: | | It seems we prefer shortages rather than rationing by price. We will soon see if that was the wise choice. |
Why do you say that? There are no shortages.
Let me quote some famous Indian guy: "No energy is more expensive than no energy."
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Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis. |
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emersonbiggins
Moderator
Joined: Jul 10, 2005
Posts: 5194
Location: Dallas
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| Posted: Wed Jul 30, 2008 7:02 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27) |
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| Starvid wrote: | | emersonbiggins wrote: | | It seems we prefer shortages rather than rationing by price. We will soon see if that was the wise choice. |
Why do you say that? There are no shortages.
Let me quote some famous Indian guy: "No energy is more expensive than no energy." |
We're close to MOLs, and refining margins are razor thin. But we've been there many times before. We shall see.
_________________
"It's called the American Dream because you'd have to be asleep to believe it."
George Carlin |
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Minvaren
Heavy Crude
Joined: Sep 25, 2005
Posts: 138
Location: Planet Houston
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| Posted: Wed Jul 30, 2008 1:59 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27) |
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| No news today that I can see, but the price of oil is up basically $5 at the bell to close at $126.77. |
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Chuckmak
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Mar 19, 2005
Posts: 858
Location: Bridge City
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| Posted: Wed Jul 30, 2008 7:00 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27) |
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well, looks like we're back on track, folks.
_________________
"if god doesn't exist, it is necessary that we invent him" - Voltaire
"they say prescott bush funded hitler" - Nas
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AirlinePilot
Moderator
Joined: Apr 05, 2005
Posts: 2608
Location: South of Atlanta
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| Posted: Wed Jul 30, 2008 9:44 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27) |
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I can tell you why its up.......because I didnt buy more yet! I'm still waiting for it to go below 120!
Dammit. |
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Sketh
Tar Sands
Joined: Jul 02, 2005
Posts: 60
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sjn
Intermediate Crude
Joined: Mar 09, 2005
Posts: 625
Location: UK
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| Posted: Fri Aug 01, 2008 8:46 am Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27) |
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This thread always seems to mark the bottom of each pullback with regular posters conceding the price will fall further back - it's like clockwork.
Maybe the traders use it as the timing signal?  |
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Starvid
Fission
Joined: Feb 20, 2005
Posts: 2888
Location: Uppsala, Sweden
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| Posted: Fri Aug 01, 2008 12:03 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27) |
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| AirlinePilot wrote: | I can tell you why its up.......because I didnt buy more yet! I'm still waiting for it to go below 120!
Dammit. |
Do you trade oil futures? 
_________________
Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis. |
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AirlinePilot
Moderator
Joined: Apr 05, 2005
Posts: 2608
Location: South of Atlanta
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| Posted: Fri Aug 01, 2008 2:55 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27) |
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I just play with USO, watching carefully and Im still long on it for the foreseeable future.
Not enough dough laying around at the moment to do the futures thing. |
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Sketh
Tar Sands
Joined: Jul 02, 2005
Posts: 60
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| Posted: Fri Aug 01, 2008 3:22 pm Post subject: Re: Another Record ($147.27) |
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| AirlinePilot wrote: | I just play with USO, watching carefully and Im still long on it for the foreseeable future.
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Just watch out with USO when the market's in contango as it has been recently. There's a hit on the monthly contract rollover, and you may not get the performance you were expecting.
When the market was in backwardation for a period USO did okay, but longer term the stock has underperformed WTI.
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