Montequest's 'Canary in the coalmine' is dying fast

Repent

Anyone familar with the articles and posts of Montequest will recognize that the 'Canary in the coalmine' the airline industry is starting to die.

I myself, at first found it hard to believe- but the airline industry is dying, just like Montequest predicted 4 years ago when peakoil.com started up. I reread his 'Canary in the coalmine' post in relation to recent events and it reads like a modern day prophesy of actual events unfolding! The airlines were first, then the big 3 North American automakers all started posting record losses, limiting credit (for leases), and laying off thousands of workers.

In only one decade the price of oil has doubled from $10 to $20, then doubled again from $20 to $40, doubled again from $40 to $80, and is well on its way towards $160. How many doublings of price is required before we admit peak oil???

I talked with a co-worker about the emminent decline of oil flows and he remarked 'so long as I get my pension- I don't have to care'. I tried to convince my boss that we should think about stockpiling diesel supplies for possible government rationing or shortages (I work in the long haul trucking industry), and his responce was like water off the back of a duck- I was ignored. I've told everyone I know about the comming problems of power shortages, price inflation, food security and the possibility of emminent economic collapse- people just don't seem to care, they can't believe this is possible. My own wife does not understand why I am stocking up on emergency supplies, seeds and so forth.

The canary is dying a quick death- the time to act is now, but nobody seems to care.

ProudFossil · Heavy Crude Joined: May 26, 2008 Posts: 101

And one of the main reasons nobody believes it is the actions of the Democratic Congress. 70% of the population want some action taken on oil production. So what does the Congress do. It goes on vacation.

Can you blame the person on the street when that happens? They think the people in Washington are all powerful and if those people are not concerned why should we be?

gollum

Yes I can blame the man on the street, I am a 40k wage earner with only a high school education and see it soming like a freight train. I am responsible for the welafre of my family in the coming years and sure wouldnt take direction by which way congress goes on any given day. I tell everyone who wil listen about peak oil, but mostly am greeted by the belief that the magical government will fix it. The apathy of americans in energy matters (among many others) is inexcusable.

Cashmere · Light Sweet Crude Joined: Mar 27, 2008 Posts: 1971

TreeFarmer · Heavy Crude Joined: Jun 26, 2007 Posts: 352

Believing in the "magic of government" is like believing in Santa Claus. It's all good until the day it all gets dispelled. To me too much of modern liberal thinking is based on the "magic of government" and the belief that you really can get something for nothing.

Unfortunately, while not believing in something for nothing the Republicans have talked a good talk but failed to "walk the walk."

TF

pstarr

gollum

I am all for government taking action on energy, so far they have shown them selves capable only of graft, waste, and general ineptness. While these morons rearrange deck chairs on the titanic, and the general public listens to the orchistraa, my family is lowering a life boat.

kpeavey · Expert Joined: Oct 04, 2004 Posts: 1323

All we offer here is the truth. We have no agenda, no lobbies, no political affiliations. Around here, if your propose a notion and cannot back it up with empirical evidence, you'll get the e-crap pounded out of you.

Montequest has shown himself to be a deep thinker. I have considered many of his theories and come to the same conclusions. I have extrapolated upon his ideas and come up with ideas of my own which have also begun to present. While I am almost willing to take his essays as fact, I am driven to do my own research. Still, I come up with the same or similar conclusions.

While there are a plethora of other canaries still gasping for air, the airlines are one of the largest systems which are projected to fail early in a Peak Oil paradigm. As events unfold, we will be able to more closely project near term events with greater accuracy. The Transition has always been ambiguous, and will be until it is passed. There are far too many variables to account for in any far ranging projections to account for specifics. For long term projections, we can see the tides coming in, and the directions they will take, but we don't know how fast, how far, or how long they will last.

The discussion continues over the future of man. While the Transition is difficult, if not impossible, to predict, there are features about the future AFTER the Transition which can be predicted with high confidence:

-Human population will decline to reach, at maximum, a balance with the carrying capacity of the Earth. This is currently estimated to range from 500 million to 2 billion humans.
-Future energy systems will be based on renewables-solar, hydro, geothermal, wind, animal and human powered.
-Economies will be primarily local in terms of trade, production and resource use.
-Relocalization will demand that food storage become a priority, with dehydration at the forefront of preservation techniques.
-Fossil fuels will still be available, but only for large scale public works projects.
-Life spans will be shorter than the present.
-Quality of life for the general public will be greatly reduced.
-Most industry will be performed at the cottage level, although critical exceptions will endure for an extended period.
-Religion, in a wide variety of disciplines, will gain renewed strength, especially as the Transition progresses.
-The Transition will last between 20 and 100 years. As events transpire, this figure will gain more accuracy.
-Economic collapse is a certainty and will present early in the collapse of civilization. While the time frame is still uncertain, the overall progress will help to offer accuracy to the Transition time frame listed above. [as far as economics, I have to post a signature line which I find most appropriate: 500 MPH into a brick wall. >poster to be listed<]
_________________
If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face--for ever."
-George Orwell, 1984

______________
Accept the Facts.

outcast · Heavy Crude Joined: Apr 21, 2008 Posts: 308

Serial_Worrier · Heavy Crude Joined: Jun 05, 2008 Posts: 285

kpeavey:

I believe in human progress. You don't. There is no way that we are going to enter a Dark Ages II.

Minvaren

mos6507

TreebeardsUncle · Intermediate Crude Joined: Jun 15, 2006 Posts: 602

The airlines are cutting back on flights as well as raising fees.
They are cutting routes and cutting the number of flights per route.

Hermes

kpeavey · Expert Joined: Oct 04, 2004 Posts: 1323

Future energy systems would not necessarily be high tech. Solar energy will be used. Maybe not with photovoltaics, but surely for drying food. Hyrdo may not run a turbine, but can surely turn a mill. Geothermal may not produce steam, but it can surely warm a deep cave habitat.

Fossil fuels are not limited to oil. Coal would be an example. As long as the technology holds out, kerogen based fuels may be available. There are places where natural gas seeps out of the ground and is used for local lighting and heating.

I've not yet read your link, but will in a few minutes.

I may need to retract the quality of life quote. Quality of life will certainly be different. Without the modern conveniences of running hot water, air conditioning, refrigeration, lighting, and home pizza delivery, there will some adjusting to do. There will also not be pollution from busy highways, toxic industrial spills, or airplanes crashing into building.
_________________
If you want a picture of the future, imagine a boot stamping on a human face--for ever."
-George Orwell, 1984

______________
Accept the Facts.