How long until PO goes mainstream?

Dreamer · Coal Joined: Nov 28, 2006 Posts: 6 Location: Michigan

I realize that peak oil is now a relatively known concept, but how long does everyone think it will be until it's a household phrase? How long do you think it will be before everyone realizes that gas prices are do to production, and not to speculators/not enough drilling/ the war/ hurricanes, whatever? It seems to me that that point is really when TSHTF. That's when oil prices will skyrocket, people will make genuine changes to their way of life, and when the global economy will really collapse. As a student with massive debt, no real property, and to be honest a bitter hatred of the mass consumption economy, I am concerned and just a bit excited for the time when this all comes to light. From what I've seen, I'm guessing that we've got a few more years before demand destruction and failed excuses run their course. Let me know what you think.

DoomWarrior

There are at least 3 sub-questions:

1. When will PO become known to the mainstream masses?

2. When will PO become accepted as a fact, much like gravity and the speed of light?

3. When will the full implications of PO become known to the masses, such that the stock markets tank and people panic big time (TSHTF)?

ki11ercane

When you can actually get the point across to Zombies.

To be honest, you should be praising the fact that less than 10% of 10% of the world gets it. Gives you more time to prep before there is chaos.

Munqi

I would say that most people who follow their time even a little bit know the concept of peak oil, they just dont understand what it means. You know: "big deal, i'll just drive less"

And ive seen really intelligent people do the same thing. Most of us just dont understand how important oil is.

TreebeardsUncle · Intermediate Crude Joined: Jun 15, 2006 Posts: 602

Within 5 years, will start hearing it more in the news.
Will take at least 10 years for folks in general in the US to understand what it really is, in terms of oil production peaking rather than running out.
Give them another 5 to 10 to understand the implications.

Interfector · Coal Joined: Jun 21, 2008 Posts: 11

With the recent price drops I expect a lot of people will retreat back into their coccoons. Perhaps when Oil gets past $200pb?

MD

It's a question that's been discussed endlessly here, and the answer is still vague.

I'm of the opinion (likely to change without notice) that it's just about as main-stream as it's ever going to get.
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vilemerchant · Heavy Crude Joined: Jul 07, 2008 Posts: 122

patience · Expert Joined: Jan 04, 2008 Posts: 1761

We live in a poverty pocket of south Indiana, where fuel prices are a BIG topic currently. I've found we can use our area to help predict what will happen in recessions, as we get hit first, and come out of it last.

With that in mind, I think PO going mainstream is going to be a function of the financial impact on individuals, and it doesn't appear to be all that far away. The looming financial problems of the coming year will bring it on, I'm thinking, as people look for a scapegoat for their woes. In that blame game, I'd expect to see oil prices get their due of attention, and no end of nonsense ideas will surface before the truth wins out.

Locally, some of the brighter bulbs have got it figured out, and are diligently working on alternatives. Almost everyone is looking for ways to save a buck on energy costs.
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Nano

If recession draws out into depression and commodity prices remain stubbornly high, I do think that public debate concerning the ramification of "Limits to Growth" in general will certainly intensify.

But if the world enters a hyperinflationary depression then it might not happen. In such an environment it will become increasingly difficult to pinpoint cause and effect in the global economy, which is already very difficult, witness the ongoing debate over the quantitative effect of the biofuels craze on global food prices.

There are plenty of respected analysts even now who view the oil prices 'spike' as an artefact of dollar weakness only. Imagine what will happen if hyperinflation sets in! It could push the date of Peak Peak Oil Awareness back for years, if not decades.

There will quite literally not be any formal 'mainstream' awareness about anything as the global economy enters a state that is not only uncontrollable, but increasingly unobservable as well.

Twilight · Expert Joined: Mar 02, 2007 Posts: 3076 Location: UK

If "peak oil" ever becomes mainstream, what will people understand by it? It may not necessarily be what we understand by the term. I expect to constantly have to correct the pop culture definition of the term in a few years' time, once there is one. Because it will probably be wrong or politicised.
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mos6507

People love scapegoats. It is more comforting to blame "the libs" or "big oil conspiracy" or some other group for not having enough oil than something they can't control like geology. Since oil is underground, it yields all sorts of wishful thinking about how much is there. So joe sixpack doesn't care about the accumulated oil industry studies that attempt to put numbers and charts on the problem.

I'm already seeing some of this, ironically, from the Democrats. They don't want ANWR/OCS drilling because they first want the oil industry to drill on the land they already have permission to drill on. My suspicion is that the reason more drilling isn't being done on this permitted land is that there ISN'T ANY APPRECIABLE OIL THERE. The fact that oil production in the US peaked almost 40 years ago doesn't come up in the debate. But the rhetoric from the politicians is that every time you drill, you'll automatically yield oil, and the more square miles of land you permit, the more oil you'll get back. It's a real layman's view of the industry.

I expect this sort of argument to go on in all countries with waning oil resources. Mexico, for instance, is panicking over how to increase production. How many countries will honestly concede that they can not restore their production quotas because they are post peak?
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3aidlillahi

Never. It will never happen in the US, especially. The surge we and other PO sites got as we approached $4 gas is probably all we'll get. A few more will trickle in over time, but I think that most of the people that want to know already do know. Everyone else will want something else: a solution, when none really exists.
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VMarcHart

Not until we have a reality show on prime time network, which for the time being is tight up with wannabe singers, dancers, survivors, cooks, models, designers, etc, all the essentials of modern life.

baha

IMHO,

1. When production is 75% of today's

2. When production is 50% of today's

3. When US gas prices reach $8/gallon

To me this means the panic will happen before the realization. I am betting TSHTF on Dec. 28 2012. Twisted Evil

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