Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Joined: Mar 26, 2008 Posts: 1424 Location: Seattle
Posted: Wed Jul 30, 2008 10:45 pm Post subject: Re: US demand down 811,000 barrels per day
I'm going to bump this thread to show a little chart I made. Maybe I'll keep it updated.
From the EIA's weekly oil report, this shows the percentage increase or decrease in "product delivered" of oil, gasoline and distillates, from the year-earlier period. Might be interesting to see whatever patterns might emerge.
Quote:
Percentage rise or fall in US oil consumption ("product supplied") from year earlier period, 2008, 4-week average
Joined: May 30, 2008 Posts: 297 Location: On the highway, or the water somewhere!
Posted: Wed Jul 30, 2008 11:34 pm Post subject: Re: US demand down 811,000 barrels per day
GASMON wrote:
Noticeable reduction in traffic on nearby M6 motorway. This is the main route England - Scotland.
Still busy morning & evening rush hours, thats local commute traffic.
I live alongside London - Glasgow rail line. More freight trains lateley, especially overnight, a good sign, I suppose.
Gasmon
anecdotally, I can state heavy truck traffic is down nation wide. I deduce this by noting the availability of parking until the middle of the night hours at trucks stops that were routinely in the past full before sun down. You can also deduce this by the NATSO (National Association of Truck Stop Owners) complaints that sales are off 15% ( in dollar value not gallons ) this quarter. At 6 MPG moving trucks have no ability to defer fueling.
It is also very noticeable on the long distance runs which tend to group into waves of trucks all starting and stopping in a short time span each day resulting in traffic flows very noticeable. This is my world and I can give you times of waves in strategic locations like 10 hours out from Los Angeles or New York etc. I am running from Ft Lauderdale to Denver tonight and arrived 11 hours out of Miami at midnight for my first 10 hour rest break. Last year I would never have found a parking place here 1 hour out of Atlanta until the morning Atlanta trucks left to place themselves in Atlanta pre rush hour. This year at 1 am I can see 15 empty parking spaces on this one row.
The ATA ( American Trucking Association) a trade group representing the big carriers and their suppliers announced for April a 1.3% increase in tonnage hauled,( over last month the second increase monthly in a row) BUT that figure will include the massive amounts of freight hauled to railroad yards and counted again when hauled from the railroad yards as a second movement.. ( they do not report ton miles just tonnage hauled...LOL). This means that they have moved enough freight to the railroads to make up the loss in total freight by 1/2 and .65 of a percent.
The railroad also reports an increase in tonnage hauled, but the number of shipments to distribution centers unloaded by contractors who "lump" trailers, and even the number of containers being delivered to ports has declined.
Large carriers have somehow managed to claim increased tonnage hauled while eliminating 10 percent of their power units. Independent carriers are in fact dropping like flies, 45,000 in the first quarter of this year second quarter figures still not reported.
There is less ton miles being reported to the taxing authorities via IFTA. The resulting decline in fuel tax receipts is documented by several states.
All in all no matter how crowded any one local point of road might seem, traffic is down. As of yet no freight other than HHG is sitting around begging for trucks to haul it because production and sales are also down.
House hold goods which are still regulated have changed from being discounted by major carriers to compete with price to offering 150 to 200 percent of rate to attract the fewer moving vans still operating. _________________ Courtesy and Courage, Sincerity and Self-control, Honor and Loyalty...a Code to Live By!
Where is my wooden pitchfork and torch anyway? I may need them for a visit to the castle soon!
Joined: May 30, 2008 Posts: 297 Location: On the highway, or the water somewhere!
Posted: Wed Jul 30, 2008 11:48 pm Post subject: Re: US demand down 811,000 barrels per day
One other factor I might point out is the beginning of the collapse of the Walmart model of retail distribution.
Many retail distribution systems copy that model.
From a centralized distribution center for a region, JIT replacement was done by sending a truck from the distribution center with replacements for those items sold ( reported via satellite at check out) daily. This allowed a significant reduction in storage and warehousing on site at each store by replenishing the shelf stocked items daily. With the increased cost of fuel, distribution runs are now held up until a trailer is fully loaded at the DC resulting in almost a 50 percent mileage reduction for those people I know who drive those dedicated distribution runs.. The system is so large that a complete unraveling of it resulting in empty shelves may begin to happen in some selected low volume sales stores, while a continued reduction in sales will certainly bring the DC system to collapse when the self employed delivery drivers (90 percent of distribution power is contracted) can no longer earn enough to pay their truck payments and feed their families. ( they are approaching that point rapidly). _________________ Courtesy and Courage, Sincerity and Self-control, Honor and Loyalty...a Code to Live By!
Where is my wooden pitchfork and torch anyway? I may need them for a visit to the castle soon!
Joined: Apr 06, 2006 Posts: 3626 Location: 3 miles NW of Champoeg, Republic of Cascadia
Posted: Thu Jul 31, 2008 2:11 am Post subject: Re: US demand down 811,000 barrels per day
48th - thanks for info, good to have another trucker here besides long time member and Canadian hauler drew. _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
C'mon man, who're you gonna believe?
Joined: Mar 26, 2008 Posts: 1424 Location: Seattle
Posted: Wed Aug 06, 2008 7:16 pm Post subject: Re: US demand down 811,000 barrels per day
Weekly consumption update.
Quote:
Percentage rise or fall in US oil consumption ("product supplied") from year earlier week, 2008, 4-week average
Source for latest week
Week = Week ending date
TPS = Total Product Supplied (basically, the total sum of all oil consumed)
G = Gasoline
D = Distillates (mostly diesel and heating oil)
Didn't bother doing jet fuel
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Wed Aug 06, 2008 7:26 pm Post subject: Re: US demand down 811,000 barrels per day
On a sequential basis, gasoline product supplied and total product supplied increased 1.5%% over the last two weeks. Usually there is no seasonal variance at this time of year. Also keep in mind that one-third in the drop in products supplied are "other oils", many of which are not used for fuel.
So it appears that lower prices increased demand, and probably will some more over the next few weeks.
To date in 2008, imports have dropped 150,000 bpd faster than products supplied. _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Posted: Wed Aug 06, 2008 8:00 pm Post subject: Re: US demand down 811,000 barrels per day
drove from San Antonio to Austin day (I 35) before yesterday (morning). I had my van on cruise control, 70 mph, and people were stacking up behind me and FLYING by, maybe 80 or 85. Sure hasn't slowed anyone down here. (and gas is down to 3.71 a gallon; we're saved.)
Joined: May 30, 2008 Posts: 297 Location: On the highway, or the water somewhere!
Posted: Wed Aug 06, 2008 10:39 pm Post subject: Re: US demand down 811,000 barrels per day
yesplease wrote:
Do all of wally's stores do that? There are a bunch of shipping containers, off hand I'd guess at least 50, behind the local "mart".
I've never seen 50, many bigger super centers have 10.. they hold "seasonal" inventory that in some cases did not sell, but there is no room at the D.C. to return to the system, also some of the larger items like bicycles patio furniture etc.. A 50 container storage rack would indicate a very strained distribution system locally..
Great wide is the name of the biggest retail hauler in the USA taking many Wally world and other store chains that run the same D.C. system.. Their recruiting adds inside the industry promise home every night dedicated runs etc and brag about the fact that even tho they are the biggest trucking company in the USA they OWN NO TRUCKS themselves.
They do however offer to help people lease purchase a truck with nothing down. ( can you say share cropper?) _________________ Courtesy and Courage, Sincerity and Self-control, Honor and Loyalty...a Code to Live By!
Where is my wooden pitchfork and torch anyway? I may need them for a visit to the castle soon!
Posted: Wed Aug 06, 2008 11:40 pm Post subject: Re: US demand down 811,000 barrels per day
the48thronin wrote:
I've never seen 50, many bigger super centers have 10.. they hold "seasonal" inventory that in some cases did not sell, but there is no room at the D.C. to return to the system, also some of the larger items like bicycles patio furniture etc.. A 50 container storage rack would indicate a very strained distribution system locally..
I don't think it's strained per say, just plenty of cheap land, relatively speaking. I'll get a head count next time I'm around but IIRC there were quite a few. Course, it's been a while since I've worked on the docks, so I may have been imagining a few more than there were.
the48thronin wrote:
Great wide is the name of the biggest retail hauler in the USA taking many Wally world and other store chains that run the same D.C. system.. Their recruiting adds inside the industry promise home every night dedicated runs etc and brag about the fact that even tho they are the biggest trucking company in the USA they OWN NO TRUCKS themselves.
They do however offer to help people lease purchase a truck with nothing down. ( can you say share cropper?)
Ha! Why am I not surprised...
Edit-There were ~20+ there yesterday, and IIRC that doubles near christmas. _________________
Professor Membrane wrote:
Not now son! I'm making...TOAST!
Last edited by yesplease on Tue Aug 12, 2008 7:08 am; edited 1 time in total
Joined: Oct 17, 2005 Posts: 145 Location: Saratoga County, NY
Posted: Thu Aug 07, 2008 8:20 am Post subject: Re: US demand down 811,000 barrels per day
I think a good summary of this thread is that there is a lot of wiggle room with regards to demand destruction. The U.S. in particular has been on such a binge of cheap energy and massive growth over the past few decades or so. Just view a stock chart of INDU since about 1970. There is a lot of room to cut back on the wasteful use of energy and still keep things moving.
As gas prices have recently soared the wiggle room has indeed shrunk. Airlines have cut back, overland shippers have shifted goods to railroads, commuters have traded in SUV's, other businesses and government entities have made drastic cuts and improvements in efficiencies in order to stay within their budgets. As others have said, they have also seen an overall reduction in traffic. All of this reduces demand for fuel.
The question is what happens when the wiggle room is gone?
Posted: Thu Aug 07, 2008 4:29 pm Post subject: Re: US demand down 811,000 barrels per day
Many decisions will be made concerning the use of oil on a micro basis now. For instance, my wife and I are taking a 600 mile trip that normally we would take a plane for. But this year, the car saves us $700 even though we will spend for an extra hotel night. Obviously on an energy analysis, this is not as energy efficient as flying. That is one reason why energy demand will not slow down as much as people think. IMO
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