Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Posted: Wed Aug 06, 2008 8:53 pm Post subject: Re: Is the world actually Cooling not warming?
I have not seen a decent winter here since maybe 2004, or 03?
Last winter was especially ridiculous. They have this field very near where I live see, its like this football court during the summer, and its supposed to be cleared out as an ice skating rink during the winter. Every winter before the last one they had an ice skating thing going on there for atleast a number of weeks, but last winter... Man! They got the shabby little dressing room out there, where youre supposed to change to your skating gear, but no ice. Not even a dream of ice. It was like late fall for the whole of winter until spring started to break out. Im telling you, sh*t was insanely.
Round where Im living, sh*t is definately not cooling down, quite the opposite. And Im a young man, as is, you get someone with more age around his/her belt going when it comes to winters... Theres no end to it.
Posted: Thu Aug 07, 2008 8:08 am Post subject: Re: Is the world actually Cooling not warming?
Quote:
Regarding CO2 as a "minor gas." Minor is what way? Are you saying that something has to be present at a specified percentage of the atmosphere to have any affect? What is that percentage and how did you arrive at that figure?
Based on a weight or volumetric percentage CO2 makes up only about 3% of total greenhouse gases. Greater than 90% of the GHGs are comprised of water vapor. Water vapor is also one of the things the IPCC states (you have to read the report rather than the summary) are not well handled as yet in the GCMs. The actual forcing of each GHG is different than the weight percentage but no matter what you do to your calculation CO2 is no where near as important a GHG as water vapor. There are other factors such as residence time, natural CO2 buffering, feedbacks etc. to consider as well, not all of which are completely understood.
Joined: Jan 11, 2005 Posts: 580 Location: southern Wisconsin
Posted: Thu Aug 07, 2008 8:11 am Post subject: Re: Is the world actually Cooling not warming?
If you want ice, come to Wisconsin. We still have real winters here. Last year we had over a 100 inches of snow. Broke the old record by more than a foot. And lots of below zero (thats F not C) temps, too.
EVs aren't going to work very well in our climate.
Joined: Jun 26, 2007 Posts: 1620 Location: The Canada of America
Posted: Thu Aug 07, 2008 8:33 am Post subject: Re: Is the world actually Cooling not warming?
aflurry wrote:
Regarding CO2 as a "minor gas." Minor is what way? Are you saying that something has to be present at a specified percentage of the atmosphere to have any affect? What is that percentage and how did you arrive at that figure?
This is a telling point, I think. In this situation, it's probably not very instructive or useful to consider just the percentage CO2 forms of the atmosphere, but rather, to catalogue its known properties and effects, and with that in mind, to contrast the known quantities of rising CO2 levels and contrast and correlate them to rising temperatures over time, keeping in mind that there may be a significant lag between cause and effect (as in, the spike in mail outbound from my house won't cause a corresponding spike in inbound mail at yours till the letter arrives in a week or so). It takes time for heat to accumulate on a global scale, but if that chart closely resembles that of CO2 concentration when overlaid, odds are you're onto something. I don't think arguing that the absolute amount of CO2 in the atmosphere is a valid point. Eagles didn't have to drink DDT by the gallon to lay eggs with fatally thin shells. Still, when DDT was fingered as the culprit and banned, their numbers began to recover. Not necessarily conclusive in and of itself, I admit, but only a willful naysayer would argue it's not compelling.
Caz is wrong when he says there's no way to correlate temperature and CO2 concentrations in the past. We do know what the average temperature was based on what's been laid down in the strata around the world in the last several hundred thousand years, and we know what the CO2 concentration are based on ice cores that correspond to the same strata. From what I've seen, it is possible to correlate higher CO2 concentrations with higher overall global temperatures, and vice versa. Of course there are other factors (volcanic eruptions, for instance) that factor in from time to time, but that's not to say the evidence of a relationship is lacking. I doubted the idea for a long time myself, but I've come to believe the argument is sound.
Even if it turns out not to be the case, would it be so bad for us -- in myriad other economic and ecological ways -- if we found alternatives to burning fossil fuels? _________________ I can has cheezburger?
Posted: Thu Aug 07, 2008 10:01 am Post subject: Re: Is the world actually Cooling not warming?
Quote:
From what I've seen, it is possible to correlate higher CO2 concentrations with higher overall global temperatures, and vice versa
A couple of factoids.
There are numerous cases in the prehistoric past where CO2 levels were an order of magnitude higher than they are currently and the earth was much colder based on the various proxy data. Periods of continental glaciation corresponded with very high CO2 in a couple of instances.
People refer to the Vostok ice core proxy data (based on isotope work) that points to a rough correlation of temperatures and CO2. As someone pointed out earlier in the discussion correlation doesn't mean causation and when this data is examined in detail the CO2 increase actually follows and increase in temperature by a few hundred years, not the other way around. The ocean is a tremendous buffer system for CO2 and it is temperature dependant which might be an explaination for this relationship.
The main issue comes down to, as I said before, how important CO2 really is. The current GCMs use it as the main control on temperature and also assume positive feedbacks associated with growing CO2 levels. If these models are incapable of predicting temperatures then we are lead to believe CO2 isn't the main driver after all.
Posted: Thu Aug 07, 2008 11:41 am Post subject: Re: Is the world actually Cooling not warming?
aflurry wrote:
Cashmere wrote:
When the "deniers" mentioned that CO2 is a minor gas, the "believers" screamed even louder and cited to lots of experts.
....
In science, if one is not pressured by being called a "denier", when evidence does not support a theory, the theory is questioned.
nope.
Yep.
That's science in a nutshell.
Propose a theory.
Gather evidence.
If evidence supports theory, theory is reinforced.
If evidence doesn't support theory, theory is questioned.
After much reinforcement, theory moves toward common acceptance - i.e. evolution.
After much questioning, theory is discarded - ala spontaneous generation.
Yep. _________________ Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
Joined: Oct 23, 2005 Posts: 1851 Location: East of Eden
Posted: Thu Aug 07, 2008 11:42 am Post subject: Re: Is the world actually Cooling not warming?
You mean this one?
Looks like a pretty neat correlation to my untrained eye. Not perfect... but pretty nice.
Isn't it true that CO2 is one of many forcing factors - hence the variations - but that if pushed too far in one direction, it does have an impact, the same way that any of those forcing factors could? Does CO2 have to be the cause of either everything - or nothing? Is it impossible that warming and CO2 can be caught in a feedback cycle, and that either one may start the trend? Is it legit to point to a few variations and imperfect matchups and claim that the overall clear pattern is meaningless?
Looking for guidance here. I'm not a scientist, but every single credible scientific institution I've heard of is on board with this. This continuing epic struggle is puzzling to me. _________________ "If a path to the better there be, it begins with a full look at the worst." — Thomas Hardy
Joined: Aug 26, 2005 Posts: 1009 Location: "Mad as Hell !"
Posted: Thu Aug 07, 2008 5:21 pm Post subject: Re: Is the world actually Cooling not warming?
rockdoc123 wrote:
Quote:
Regarding CO2 as a "minor gas." Minor is what way? Are you saying that something has to be present at a specified percentage of the atmosphere to have any affect? What is that percentage and how did you arrive at that figure?
Based on a weight or volumetric percentage CO2 makes up only about 3% of total greenhouse gases. Greater than 90% of the GHGs are comprised of water vapor. Water vapor is also one of the things the IPCC states (you have to read the report rather than the summary) are not well handled as yet in the GCMs. The actual forcing of each GHG is different than the weight percentage but no matter what you do to your calculation CO2 is no where near as important a GHG as water vapor. There are other factors such as residence time, natural CO2 buffering, feedbacks etc. to consider as well, not all of which are completely understood.
The effect of water vapor and clouds is between 66 and 85%
Also, water vapor is not an external forcing like CO2. The level of water vapor in the atmosphere is a function of temperature. Any amount of additional water added to the atmosphere simply falls out in the form of rain or snow, unlike CO2 which can be added to the atmosphere. If anything water vapor acts as a deadly positive feedback loop to rising temperatures. _________________ The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
... Theodore Roosevelt
Joined: Jun 26, 2007 Posts: 1620 Location: The Canada of America
Posted: Thu Aug 07, 2008 5:39 pm Post subject: Re: Is the world actually Cooling not warming?
rockdoc123 wrote:
There are numerous cases in the prehistoric past where CO2 levels were an order of magnitude higher than they are currently and the earth was much colder based on the various proxy data.
For example?
rockdoc123 wrote:
when this data is examined in detail the CO2 increase actually follows and increase in temperature by a few hundred years, not the other way around. The ocean is a tremendous buffer system for CO2 and it is temperature dependant which might be an explaination for this relationship.
One thing that's not in dispute, I trust, given the example of Venus just off the port bow there, is that carbon dioxide functions as a heat-retaining substance, relative to most of the gases in the atmosphere, particularly nitrogen. If a rise in heat CAUSED a rise in CO2 levels, then it stands to reason that the liberated CO2 would retain heat, raise the temperature, liberate more CO2, and on and on. In a circumstance like that, we would likely have long ago ended up with a planet uninhabitable by beings like ourselves. On the face of it, this argument doesn't hold up for me.
Meanwhile, we are living in a world where CO2 levels have risen precipitously within just three or four generations, and we are seeing attendant effects the likes of which we haven't seen in recorded history, in spite of heat waves, eruptions, "little ice ages" and thaws, and what have you. We're looking at an ice-free Arctic in summer within just a few years. Shelves of ice are slipping away from Greenland and Antarctica. Again, that's not in and of itself conclusive, but I certainly find it compelling. I haven't heard anyone come up with any other explanation for this.
I was a skeptic too; I used to walk around and say that a few hot summers in a row, a few mild winters, didn't prove anything was even happening; the trend was too short. But this, this IS happening. You can see it month by month, year by year in satellite images. There's no waving it away anymore as a momentary anomaly; something is causing this, and it's unheralded in our experience. I haven't heard anyone come up with a better explanation or mechanism than the one that's proposed: we've been pouring billions of tonnes of a known insulating gas into the atmosphere for a century, and temperatures at the poles are rising to a sobering extent. I doubt we understand everything about the cause and effect; the world's a big system. But Jesus, haven't we seen enough ecological horror in the past 50 years or so that we can't escape the fact we've had a huge, undeniable impact on the planet, and most of it unimagined and unintentional? I used to say it was hubris to imagine we could cause an effect so large, but the atmosphere's not infinite; nothing like... So actually, now I think it's irresponsible folly to imagine we're incapable of having a detrimental impact. Even if it turns out we're not, we don't know that yet, and it's our responsibility to take that seriously. _________________ I can has cheezburger?
Joined: Aug 26, 2005 Posts: 1009 Location: "Mad as Hell !"
Posted: Thu Aug 07, 2008 5:57 pm Post subject: Re: Is the world actually Cooling not warming?
The answer to what came first, temperature or CO2, is that you can actually have it both ways. Its not a one or the other answer. The fact that CO2 laged temperatue in the past in some instances does not negate the amplifying effect of CO2 in the atmosphere.
CO2 levels were much higher in the distant past, and we can be thankful they were, otherwise life would probably not have formed the way it has. As always, there are many factors that determine climatic temperature, back then CO2 was a good counter for a young sun, and massive amounts of volcanic dust and gas. _________________ The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
... Theodore Roosevelt
Posted: Thu Aug 07, 2008 7:25 pm Post subject: Re: Is the world actually Cooling not warming?
Quote:
If anything water vapor acts as a deadly positive feedback loop to rising temperatures.
not necessarily true, it depends on what the cloud level created is. There is a fair bit of research pointing to the negative feedback element of water vapor. If you wish I can point you in that direction.
Quote:
The fact that CO2 laged temperature in the past in some instances does not negate the amplifying effect of CO2 in the atmosphere.
this is where we split from theory and reality. If the models argue that rising CO2 must cause higher temperatures but the paleo record tells us the opposite it seems to me that the reasonable arguement is something has a much greater forcing than CO2...it overwhelms the greenhouse effect. No one argues that CO2 is not a greenhouse gas, what they argue is how important it is in determining overall climate patterns.
Quote:
As always, there are many factors that determine climatic temperature,
yes indeed, which is exactly what the so-called deniers have been saying for the past decade or so. There are a lot of unknowns, there are knowns that aren't that well known .....yet we continually are told the science is settled, man made CO2 is responsible for any sort of climate change we might experience.
Quote:
For example?
end Ordovician temperature ~ 12 C CO2 4500 ppm, end Devonian temperature ~ 17 C CO2 2000 ppm, end Jurassic temperature ~16 C CO2 2000 ppm.
Check out Chris Scotese website for such info. (an acquaintance of mine and a very bright scientist)
Also be aware that the average temperature during the mideval warm period was slightly higher than now....virtually no anthropogenic CO2.
Quote:
We're looking at an ice-free Arctic in summer within just a few years. Shelves of ice are slipping away from Greenland and Antarctica.
and this has all happened before in the not that distant past. The Vikings inhabited Greenland during the mideval warm period...they had a successful farming, fishing existence. This all happened well before man started pumping CO2 into the atmosphere. You need to remember that on a long term basis we are coming out of an ice age, not surprising to see deterioration of the ice pack through that period.
Quote:
I haven't heard anyone come up with a better explanation or mechanism than the one that's proposed: we've been pouring billions of tonnes of a known insulating gas into the atmosphere for a century, and temperatures at the poles are rising to a sobering extent.
How about natural variation? BTW temperatures at the poles are not rising to a sobering extent. Even the most rabid AGW fanatic would be hard pressed to come up with any evidence that the Antarctic has done anything more than stay statistically the same surface temperature for the past 50 years. Although the Arctic ice pack is thinning there are parts of the Arctic in Russia where it is more extensive than in the past.
Quote:
Is it legit to point to a few variations and imperfect matchups and claim that the overall clear pattern is meaningless?
Absolutely...this is the scientific method (and I are one!). Questioning correlations, models, predictions etc. is what it is supposed to be about. I am honestly completely astounded by the attitude of those scientists who rather than question their models because of anamolies they might have overlooked choose to stick with them and call their critics "deniers".
Joined: May 22, 2004 Posts: 1438 Location: Ottawa, Ontario
Posted: Thu Aug 07, 2008 8:44 pm Post subject: Re: Is the world actually Cooling not warming?
rockdoc wrote:
this is where we split from theory and reality. If the models argue that rising CO2 must cause higher temperatures but the paleo record tells us the opposite it seems to me that the reasonable arguement is something has a much greater forcing than CO2...it overwhelms the greenhouse effect. No one argues that CO2 is not a greenhouse gas, what they argue is how important it is in determining overall climate patterns.
The paleo record doesn't indicate the "opposite", it does point to a positive correlation between temperature and CO2, however the interaction is that higher temperatures cause the CO2 to leave the oceans and enter the atmosphere. Climatoligists argue that this is a positive feedback and that without this positive feedback loop it is hard to imagine what might be causing the large swings in temperature that have occured in the past million years. We can glean even less from the rocks of the Jurassic and Ordovician which are a couple orders of magnitude more ancient than the ice core records. I don't doubt there are some forcings such as solar output that vary over a very long time scale that might swamp the GHG effect.
Quote:
and this has all happened before in the not that distant past. The Vikings inhabited Greenland during the mideval warm period...they had a successful farming, fishing existence. This all happened well before man started pumping CO2 into the atmosphere. You need to remember that on a long term basis we are coming out of an ice age, not surprising to see deterioration of the ice pack through that period.
The deterioration of the ice pack in the past few years has been quite phenomenal and if this was the normal pattern since the ice age all the ice would be long gone. I don't think the scientists have a good handle on what is going on with the ice pack and to claim it is all due to global warming is premature. On the other hand to attempt to dismiss it because we are still coming out of an ice age is like ignoring a tsunami because the tide is coming in. _________________ Biofuels: The "What else we got to burn?" answer to peak oil.
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