Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Thu Aug 07, 2008 5:15 pm Post subject: Oil Movements: OPEC Exports to Fall 360,000 BPD
The oil tanker tracker firm, Oil Movements, sees a considerable fall off in OPEC exports in late August - due to "overproduction" from OPEC countries. There are significant indications this is mostly due to Saudis scaling back their much proclaimed recent increase in output.
While not indicated below, other industry sources state the incremental increase in Saudi output (500,000 bpd) the last few months is mostly heavy crude. The amount of supply of this type of crude currently exceeds available refinery capacity. However later in the year Reliance of India plans to open a major refinery that can utilize this type of crude. One of the new customers for Reliance is Iran, which lacks refinery capacity.
Anyway, this is the biggest fall off in shipments we've seen since about six months ago.
Quote:
DJ OPEC Exports In 4 Weeks To Aug 23 Seen Dn 0.36M B/D - Tracker
Last update: 11:30 a.m. EDT Aug. 7, 2008
LONDON, Aug 07, 2008 (Dow Jones Commodities News via Comtex) -- Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' - minus Angola and Ecuador - crude oil shipments are projected to drop by 360,000 barrels a day in the four weeks to Aug. 23 as Gulf countries cut sailings in anticipation of lower seasonal consumption, U.K.-based tanker tracker Oil Movements said Thursday.
Shipments from OPEC members are expected to drop to a total of 24.46 million barrels a day in the four-week period to Aug. 23, up from 24.82 million barrels a day in the four weeks to July 26, Oil Movements said.
Roy Mason, head of the consultancy, said the drop is logical, anticipating on the low point of crude consumption in the West in late September.
He said, however, that shipments expected in the week to Aug. 23 were still higher on the year by 640,000 barrels a day.
Still, he said the drop is "bigger than expected" and there has been signs of "overproduction" from OPEC countries.
Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, announced earlier this summer in two separate announcements it would raise production by a total of 500,000 barrels a day to 9.7 million barrels a day in July, the highest level in many years, to meet new customer demand.
Shipments from key Middle Eastern OPEC producers, and mostly from Saudi Arabia, are projected to drop by 490,000 barrels a day to 17.46 million barrels a day in the four-week period to Aug. 23 from 17.95 million barrels a day in the four weeks to July 26.
Joined: Dec 18, 2004 Posts: 4994 Location: One Mile From the Columbia River
Posted: Thu Aug 07, 2008 5:21 pm Post subject: Re: Oil Movements:OPEC Exports to Fall 360,000 BPD
Interesting and possibly very bullish news. This combined with drum beats about Iran, and a hurricane or two could very well bring oil back over to $140.
I wonder if this is more on the lines of SA production flattening out? _________________ Got Dharma?
Posted: Thu Aug 07, 2008 5:53 pm Post subject: Re: Oil Movements:OPEC Exports to Fall 360,000 BPD
Which bear the question:
How much would it cost to build a refinery able to process heavy crude?
Of course the cost would depend on the size of the refinery, but let's say for an average refinery, how much would it cost?
Joined: Jul 02, 2008 Posts: 591 Location: Canterbury, UK
Posted: Thu Aug 07, 2008 6:06 pm Post subject: Re: Oil Movements:OPEC Exports to Fall 360,000 BPD
So, the increase has shown we have hit Peak Refining, at least until the big Diesel refinery opens in India.
The fact that there's been overproduction and that the drop is so big, could it mean the Saudis have been keeping the price under control artificially, with an unsustainable production rate? _________________ Environmental News and Clippings:
http://www.google.co.uk/reader/shared/10279555364898696533
Joined: Jun 30, 2005 Posts: 769 Location: northern California
Posted: Thu Aug 07, 2008 6:12 pm Post subject: Re: Oil Movements:OPEC Exports to Fall 360,000 BPD
CarlosFerreira wrote:
The fact that there's been overproduction and that the drop is so big, could it mean the Saudis have been keeping the price under control artificially, with an unsustainable production rate?
Or, they may have been supplementing production at capacity by drawing from their tank farms. Of course this can only go on for a relatively short time, so they may have lucked out once again. _________________ "When men yield up the privilege of thinking, the last shadow of liberty quits the horizon."
Thomas Paine
Posted: Thu Aug 07, 2008 6:40 pm Post subject: Re: Oil Movements:OPEC Exports to Fall 360,000 BPD
Prices for OPEC crude are falling rapidly:
Quote:
The price for crude oil produced by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dropped by nearly $4.60 on Tuesday, the lowest in two months, as markets continued to react to lower demand outlook.
One barrel (159 litres) of OPEC-produced crude stood at $116.22 a barrel Tuesday, down $4.58 from $120.80 on the previous day, data released by OPEC showed Wednesday.
The price for crude oil produced by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has dropped below $115, to its lowest price since early May, figures released by OPEC showed Thursday.
Joined: Jul 02, 2008 Posts: 591 Location: Canterbury, UK
Posted: Thu Aug 07, 2008 6:44 pm Post subject: Re: Oil Movements:OPEC Exports to Fall 360,000 BPD
JohnDenver wrote:
Prices for OPEC crude are falling rapidly:
Quote:
The price for crude oil produced by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) dropped by nearly $4.60 on Tuesday, the lowest in two months, as markets continued to react to lower demand outlook.
One barrel (159 litres) of OPEC-produced crude stood at $116.22 a barrel Tuesday, down $4.58 from $120.80 on the previous day, data released by OPEC showed Wednesday.
The price for crude oil produced by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has dropped below $115, to its lowest price since early May, figures released by OPEC showed Thursday.
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Thu Aug 07, 2008 7:10 pm Post subject: Re: Oil Movements: OPEC Exports to Fall 360,000 BPD
Quote:
Platts Oilgram Price Report
July 24, 2008
Section: Market by Market
Reliance Jamnagar refinery 94% complete
Vandana Hari
Reliance Petroleum Limited's 580,000 b/d refinery and polypropylene project at Jamnagar in the western Indian state of Gujarat is now 94% complete and expected to be finished ahead of the original schedule of December 2008, the company said July 22.
RPL did not specify the commissioning time frame for the greenfield refinery, located in a Special Economic Zone of Jamnagar, not far from the existing 660,000 b/d refinery operated by parent company Reliance Industries Limited.
"A final decision has not yet been taken" on whether the refinery would be commissioned before December, a company spokesman said July 23. But "all indications are that perhaps it [the commissioning] will be ahead of schedule." The export-oriented refinery and the 900,000 mt/year polypropylene plant would be commissioned together, the spokesman added.
RPL said it had "mobilized sufficient resources to sustain precommissioning and commissioning activities on fast track and expects to complete the refinery ahead of its initial schedule of December 2008."
The refinery will be the sixth largest in the world and will have a Nelson Complexity Index of 14. The plant will be able to process heavy, sour crudes to churn out high-quality products for export to markets in the US, Africa, Europe and the Middle East.
The refinery, which is being completed less than 36 months from the start of construction on December 1, 2005, will maximize production of transport fuels gasoline and gasoil, Reliance Industries Chairman Mukesh Ambani said in a statement last month (ON 6/10). Reliance Industries holds 70.99% of RPL, with US major Chevron holding 5% and the public 24.01%.
The new facility will bump up India's total refining capacity of about 149 million mt/year (2.98 million b/d) by nearly 20% and turn it into a bigger products exporter.
AHMEDABAD: The export-oriented Rs.270 bn (over $6.3 bn) refinery that Reliance Petroleum Ltd (RPL) is setting up in Jamnagar will incur half the cost of a similar Greenfield plant anywhere in the world, the company said in its 2007-08 annual report.
Economic Times - India _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Posted: Thu Aug 07, 2008 7:19 pm Post subject: Re: Oil Movements: OPEC Exports to Fall 360,000 BPD
"Overproduction"? Wasn't OPEC saying that they though an acceptable floor was ~$60/bbl a year ago. Looks like they've changed their tune. I wish there was more transparency in order to figure out if they simply can't produce any more or are just defending the market price. _________________
Joined: Oct 23, 2004 Posts: 5928 Location: New Jersey
Posted: Thu Aug 07, 2008 7:29 pm Post subject: Re: Oil Movements:OPEC Exports to Fall 360,000 BPD
dunewalker wrote:
CarlosFerreira wrote:
The fact that there's been overproduction and that the drop is so big, could it mean the Saudis have been keeping the price under control artificially, with an unsustainable production rate?
Or, they may have been supplementing production at capacity by drawing from their tank farms. Of course this can only go on for a relatively short time, so they may have lucked out once again.
There was some mention by Petrologistics earlier this year that the Saudis took at least part of an earlier 'production' increase from storage tanks. However I have not seen this mentioned lately.
The Saudis are now undertaking a massive expansion of storage tanks, so they must see some need to have a large amount of tanks. _________________ It's already over, now it's just a matter of adjusting.
Posted: Thu Aug 07, 2008 7:29 pm Post subject: Re: Oil Movements: OPEC Exports to Fall 360,000 BPD
$60 a barrel floor probably looked good then, but when you combine the psychological effect of looking at the $$$ coming in combined with a falling dollar value I suspect that any normally greedy human [which probably includes OPEC] is now looking at $125 as a nice stable floor price.
Joined: Apr 28, 2005 Posts: 3918 Location: West shore Lake Eire, MI, USA
Posted: Fri Aug 08, 2008 4:53 pm Post subject: Re: Oil Movements: OPEC Exports to Fall 360,000 BPD
If India starts importing 580,000 bbl/d more for this new refinery later this year how much of the workd heavy/sour crude supply will that soak up off the market? In turn how much will this decrease the price gap between light and heavy grades of petroleum on the world market? Everyone wants the finished products but Europe and the USA are hesitant to increase absolute refinery capacity. If India is adding this significantly to world refinery capacity and they are deliberatly orienting themselves for heavier more sour crude they could very well plug the gap in capacity for a year or so, but then what?
As it stands right now the USA has been importing a lot of heavy from Mexico but those sources are declining rapidly, I had always assumed that the US refineries currently using Mexican heavy would switch to OPEC heavy as Mexico declines, but if India is building this kind of capacity that might not be realistic. _________________ Always appeal to a man's enlightened self interest, you can trust him to look out for himself honestly, It's when you appeal to his Honor or the Common Good that he stops paying attention.
A total of 318,000 barrels per day (bpd) of new secondary refining capacity is coming online in Saudi Arabia in the fourth-quarter at PetroRabigh, a joint venture between Aramco and Japan's Sumitomo Chemicals <4005.T>. The new upgrades will cut fuel oil production and exports as the units convert the dirty leftovers of refining into higher value clean products, a senior company official from PetroRabigh said earlier this month.
The upgrade will include a 60,000 bpd gasoline making unit, a 200,000 bpd vacuum distillation unit, a 92,000 bpd catalytic cracking unit and a 26,000 bpd alkylation unit. Traders said that the lower fuel oil exports from Saudi Arabia could further thin out supply flows into Asia.
"As it is we are expecting thinner flows from the West into Asia, over the next few months, lower Middle East exports will only aggravate the situation," a fuel oil trader with an oil major said. Western arbitrage flows into Asia for July were pegged at around 1.83 million tonnes, with August arrivals expected to be about 1.9-2 million tonnes, around a third less than the monthly average in the year to date.
Iran has ca. 300 kbpd of new production online as well. _________________ Cogito, ergo non satis bibivi
C'mon man, who're you gonna believe?
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