Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Posted: Fri Aug 08, 2008 2:26 am Post subject: Re: Is the world actually Cooling not warming?
Good graph, wxman.
A year or even a decade of reduced increase or even slight decrease in global temperature does not negate the long term near certainty that global temperatures will rise over time with increases in GW gasses.
Those who doubt it might as well say that the recent dip in oil prices disproves PO.
Joined: Jun 26, 2007 Posts: 1620 Location: The Canada of America
Posted: Fri Aug 08, 2008 6:24 am Post subject: Re: Is the world actually Cooling not warming?
Golgo13 wrote:
Lore wrote:
The answer to what came first, temperature or CO2...
Notice that CO2 spikes at the end of that graph and temp has yet to catch up.
Well done.
I think the whole "rising temps causes more CO2" argument's ass-backwards. It's a positive feedback loop that would turn the Earth into something more like Venus, limited only by the Earth's supply of oxidized carbon. If, instead, the rise in heat is caused by the release of CO2, then we should see what we're seeing: rises in the overall global temperature mitigated by the actual amount of CO2 released into the air, and following a rise in CO2 concentrations, not preceding it. _________________ I can has cheezburger?
Joined: Apr 12, 2007 Posts: 1198 Location: Central NC
Posted: Fri Aug 08, 2008 6:52 am Post subject: Re: Is the world actually Cooling not warming?
Golgo13 wrote:
Cashmere wrote:
No.
The problem is there is ZERO correlation. That's the problem.
400,000 years of positive correlation would like to have a word with you.
Based on Golgo's graph would the deniers provide an explanation of why they expect global temperature to fall and where the "zero correllation" is? _________________ "The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences…"
Sir Winston Churchill
Posted: Fri Aug 08, 2008 8:02 am Post subject: Re: Is the world actually Cooling not warming?
Quote:
I think the whole "rising temps causes more CO2" argument's ass-backwards. It's a positive feedback loop that would turn the Earth into something more like Venus, limited only by the Earth's supply of oxidized carbon. If, instead, the rise in heat is caused by the release of CO2, then we should see what we're seeing: rises in the overall global temperature mitigated by the actual amount of CO2 released into the air, and following a rise in CO2 concentrations, not preceding it.
the ice core data is what it is....it clearly shows rising temperature preceeding rising CO2. The positive feedback loop you mention is mitigated to a degree by natural CO2 buffering in plants, soils and the ocean. The fact that such a disasterous feedback loop has not occurred also argues that the CO2 part of the greenhouse effect is not as important as the models imply.
Joined: Apr 12, 2007 Posts: 1198 Location: Central NC
Posted: Fri Aug 08, 2008 8:19 am Post subject: Re: Is the world actually Cooling not warming?
Yes indeed, the ice core data is what it is. .
What the science says...
The CO2 record confirms both the amplifying effect of atmospheric CO2 and how sensitive climate is to change.
Does temperature rise cause CO2 rise or the other way around? A common misconception is that you can only have one or the other. In actuality, the answer is both.
Milankovitch cycles - how increased temperature causes CO2 rise
Looking over past climate change, scientists have observed a cycle of ice ages separated by brief warm periods called interglacials. This pattern is due to Milankovitch cycles - gradual, regular changes in the earth's orbit and axis. While there are several different cycles, the dominant climate signal is the 100,000 year eccentricity cycle as the Earth's orbit changes from a more circular to a more elliptical orbit (Petit 1999, Shackleton 2000).
The eccentricity cycle causes changes in insolation (incoming sunlight). When springtime insolation increases in the southern hemisphere, this coincides with rising temperatures in the south, retreating Antarctic sea ice and melting glaciers in the southern hemisphere (Shemesh 2002). As temperature rises, CO2 also rises but lags the warming by 800 to 1000 years (Monnin 2001, Caillon 2003, Stott 2007).
How does warming cause a rise in atmospheric CO2? As the oceans warm, the solubility of CO2 in water falls (Martin 2005). This causes the oceans to give up more CO2, emitting it into the atmosphere. The exact mechanism of how the deep ocean gives up its CO2 is not fully understood but believed to be related to vertical ocean mixing (Toggweiler 1999).
The greenhouse effect - how increased CO2 causes temperature rise
When there's more CO2 in the atmosphere, the earth absorbs more heat. Shortwave radiation from the sun passes straight through our atmosphere and is absorbed by the earth. The earth reemits it as longwave (infrared) radiation which is partially absorbed by atmospheric CO2. This is the greenhouse effect. CO2 lets energy in, doesn't let as much get out.
CO2 warming explains how the relatively weak forcing from Milankovitch cycles can bring the planet out of an ice age. It begins with the high southern latitudes (eg - Antarctica) warming and releasing CO2 from the oceans. The CO2 mixes through the atmosphere, amplifying and spreading the warming to northern latitudes (Cuffey 2001). This is why warming in the southern hemisphere precedes warming in the northern hemisphere (Caillon 2003). This is confirmed by marine cores that show tropical temperatures lag southern warming by ~1000 years (Stott 2007).
Climate sensitivity - how CO2 amplifies temperature increase
Climate sensitivity is defined as how much global temperature increase if we doubled CO2. Studies of past CO2 and temperature records have helped quantify how sensitive our climate is to changes in CO2.
Temperature and various forcings (including CO2) over the past few centuries shows a climate sensitivity between 1.5 to 6.2°C (Hegerl 2006). One study combines the results from various paleontological studies to narrow climate sensitivity to around 2.5 to 3.5°C (Annan 2006). Basically, multiple studies covering many different periods of earth's history confirm that when CO2 is doubled, global temperatures go up around 3°C.
So what does the CO2 lag tell us? The behaviour of CO2 in the past confirms the amplifying effect of CO2 in the atmosphere. Sharp temperature rises in the past indicate how sensitive climate is to change. Our past history shows how our climate is prone to "tipping points" where warming can lead to positive feedbacks sparking a warming effect.
Link: http://www.skepticalscience.com/co2-lags-temperature.htm _________________ "The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close. In its place we are entering a period of consequences…"
Sir Winston Churchill
Joined: Aug 26, 2005 Posts: 1009 Location: "Mad as Hell !"
Posted: Fri Aug 08, 2008 8:59 am Post subject: Re: Is the world actually Cooling not warming?
Nickel wrote:
Golgo13 wrote:
Lore wrote:
The answer to what came first, temperature or CO2...
Notice that CO2 spikes at the end of that graph and temp has yet to catch up.
Well done.
I think the whole "rising temps causes more CO2" argument's ass-backwards. It's a positive feedback loop that would turn the Earth into something more like Venus, limited only by the Earth's supply of oxidized carbon. If, instead, the rise in heat is caused by the release of CO2, then we should see what we're seeing: rises in the overall global temperature mitigated by the actual amount of CO2 released into the air, and following a rise in CO2 concentrations, not preceding it.
It's to be expected that a time lag would occur between a rapid rise in CO2 levels and increasing temperatures by the mitigating factors of the earths large heat sinks, oceans, land mass, ect. Ocean heat, like surface temperature, doesn't follow a monotonically warming trend during global warming. J ust as rapid temperature rises in the past were proceeded by CO2 being released many years later. _________________ The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
... Theodore Roosevelt
Posted: Fri Aug 08, 2008 9:07 am Post subject: Re: Is the world actually Cooling not warming?
Quote:
So what does the CO2 lag tell us? The behaviour of CO2 in the past confirms the amplifying effect of CO2 in the atmosphere. Sharp temperature rises in the past indicate how sensitive climate is to change. Our past history shows how our climate is prone to "tipping points" where warming can lead to positive feedbacks sparking a warming effect.
that explaination is somewhat bizarre. So the temperature rise causes CO2 to rise...yes we see that in the isotope record...and then of course that rising CO2 causes temperature to rise also. Makes theoretical sense, unfortunately the record does not show that. If you can pull that out of the isotope history then you are most certainly a wizard. I think it is important to separate factual record from theory, the writer of this particular article does not.
Joined: Jun 26, 2007 Posts: 1620 Location: The Canada of America
Posted: Fri Aug 08, 2008 9:21 am Post subject: Re: Is the world actually Cooling not warming?
rockdoc123 wrote:
the ice core data is what it is....it clearly shows rising temperature preceeding rising CO2.
Does it? Where?
And if so, why is the modern level of CO2 currently higher than any recorded level in the past half million years or so, but the current average global temperature has NOT yet exceeded record temperatures? By your model, we should long ago have seen blistering temperatures and only now should CO2 be rising, having been "released" by the heat that, according to you, "clearly" precedes such events.
By what mechanism is the excess heat generated in the first place?
rockdoc123 wrote:
The positive feedback loop you mention is mitigated to a degree by natural CO2 buffering in plants, soils and the ocean.
So you're saying heat releases CO2, but the plants and the ocean -- the places the CO2 ought to be released from -- hold onto the CO2.
Does this actually make sense to you? _________________ I can has cheezburger?
Posted: Fri Aug 08, 2008 9:23 am Post subject: Re: Is the world actually Cooling not warming?
phaeryen wrote:
I have not seen a decent winter here since maybe 2004, or 03?
Last winter was especially ridiculous. They have this field very near where I live see, its like this football court during the summer, and its supposed to be cleared out as an ice skating rink during the winter. Every winter before the last one they had an ice skating thing going on there for atleast a number of weeks, but last winter... Man! They got the shabby little dressing room out there, where youre supposed to change to your skating gear, but no ice. Not even a dream of ice. It was like late fall for the whole of winter until spring started to break out. Im telling you, sh*t was insanely.
Round where Im living, sh*t is definately not cooling down, quite the opposite. And Im a young man, as is, you get someone with more age around his/her belt going when it comes to winters... Theres no end to it.
Well, here in South Dakota we just had one of the coldest winters we've experienced in the last century.
Joined: Jun 26, 2007 Posts: 1620 Location: The Canada of America
Posted: Fri Aug 08, 2008 9:32 am Post subject: Re: Is the world actually Cooling not warming?
bshirt wrote:
Well, here in South Dakota we just had one of the coldest winters we've experienced in the last century.
Maybe "Global warming" forgot us.
Where I'm living, we didn't have our coldest, but we did have our snowiest in about 80 years. Cold winters, though, are rarely snowy, and vice versa. Snow mostly falls between 0 C and -10 C, and winters can get a lot colder than that. _________________ I can has cheezburger?
Joined: May 22, 2004 Posts: 1438 Location: Ottawa, Ontario
Posted: Fri Aug 08, 2008 11:54 am Post subject: Re: Is the world actually Cooling not warming?
rockdoc wrote:
that explaination is somewhat bizarre. So the temperature rise causes CO2 to rise...yes we see that in the isotope record...and then of course that rising CO2 causes temperature to rise also. Makes theoretical sense, unfortunately the record does not show that. If you can pull that out of the isotope history then you are most certainly a wizard. I think it is important to separate factual record from theory, the writer of this particular article does not.
The ice core isotope record certainly doesn't conflict with the CO2 greenhouse effect being present. The key way that the ice core record supports the green house theory is that the amplitude of the temperature changes are so large. If there isn't a greenhouse feedback effect then there must be some other very large forcing that just happens to be well corelated with the relatively small solar cycle forcing. _________________ Biofuels: The "What else we got to burn?" answer to peak oil.
Posted: Fri Aug 08, 2008 12:03 pm Post subject: Re: Is the world actually Cooling not warming?
Quote:
The ice core isotope record certainly doesn't conflict with the CO2 greenhouse effect being present. The key way that the ice core record supports the green house theory is that the amplitude of the temperature changes are so large. If there isn't a greenhouse feedback effect then there must be some other very large forcing that just happens to be well corelated with the relatively small solar cycle forcing.
look at the curve. There is first a rise in temperature followed in the next couple of hundred years by a rise in CO2....does temperature rise immediately after that? Absolutely not, in fact it mostly falls.
Not sure what data you are looking at but it isn't from Vostok or any of the other published information.
Posted: Fri Aug 08, 2008 12:17 pm Post subject: Re: Is the world actually Cooling not warming?
dohboi wrote:
Good graph, wxman.
A year or even a decade of reduced increase or even slight decrease in global temperature does not negate the long term near certainty that global temperatures will rise over time with increases in GW gasses.
Those who doubt it might as well say that the recent dip in oil prices disproves PO.
Ridiculous.
Peak Oil must occur there is only one variable - the rate of extraction.
GW may occur - there are too many variables to consider.
To compare GW theory to PO certainty is to piss on PO. _________________ Massive Human Dieoff must occur as a result of Peak Oil. Many more than half will die. It will occur everywhere, including where you live. If you fail to recognize this, then your odds of living move toward the "going to die" group.
Posted: Fri Aug 08, 2008 12:18 pm Post subject: Re: Is the world actually Cooling not warming?
dohboi said:
Quote:
Good graph, wxman.
A year or even a decade of reduced increase or even slight decrease in global temperature does not negate the long term near certainty that global temperatures will rise over time with increases in GW gasses.
Those who doubt it might as well say that the recent dip in oil prices disproves PO.
The world land & ocean temperature differential between the ‘02-’07 six month mean and the first six months of ‘08 was 0.242 F. That is several orders of magnitude greater than anything that is shown on the graph posted by wxman to demonstrate La Nina cooling. On that bases alone, there is no evidence to support that we are even talking about the same pheromone.
Actually if you notice, there was no periods of cooling, just some plateaus between 1980 and 2000. Even the very strong ‘98-99 La Nina did not produce a cooler year.
Quote:
El Nino-Southern Oscillation conditions transitioned to a neutral phase during June.
With the ‘08 La Nina having come to an end, the next few months should be interesting. The July ‘08 data should be published by the NOAA shortly. If the world is continuing to display its cooling trend, the La Nina as the only explanation for the cooler weather will have to be discarded.
Posted: Fri Aug 08, 2008 12:57 pm Post subject: Re: Is the world actually Cooling not warming?
Cashmere wrote:
When the "deniers" mentioned that CO2 is a minor gas, the "believers" screamed even louder and cited to lots of experts.
As this global dimming documentary points out:
...we may be much more sensitive than CO2 than we ever thought. The thing is, we have pollution from jet aircraft blocking out solar energy, accounting for the dimming effect.
So now with Peak Oil we have airlines going bankrupt and therefore less planes flying, meaning less jet aircraft pollution blocking solar radiation, and therefore rapid warming.
So if this is accurate, then we could end up with a hyperthermal scenario the likes of which the climate doomsayers aren't even talking about. Especially as we resort to falling back on our coal reserves for energy.
Last edited by Golgo13 on Fri Aug 08, 2008 12:59 pm; edited 1 time in total
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