Like the illusion of Wall Street, with its vast and powerful investment banks, now shuttered, China too is an illusion perpetuated by the Globalists that gave us the 15,000 mile Caesar salad, poisoned cat food and lead based paint on babies' pacifiers. Like the illusion that money would come from thin air to always push housing prices higher, China has spent a generation pursuing its illusion. Pursuing an unattainable dream to be like the West, while 6000 years of its carefully shepherded top soil blows into the sea.
Posted: Fri Aug 08, 2008 12:59 pm Post subject: Re: Is the world actually Cooling not warming?
Quote:
Does it? Where?
the following references all document the ice core data which clearly shows CO2 rise following temperature rise:
Siegenthaler, U. et al, 2005, Stable carbon cycle-climate relationship during the late Pleistocene, Science 310, p 1313-1317
Monnin, E., et al, 2001, Atmospheric CO2 concentrations over the last glacial termination, Science 291, p 112-114
Petit, J. R., et al, 1999, Climate and atmospheric history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok ice core, Anatarctica, Nature 399, p 429-436
Fischer, H., 1999, Ice core records of atmospheric CO2 around the last three glacial terminations, Science 282, p 1712-1714
Mudelsee, M, 2001, The phase relations amoung atmospheric CO2 content, temperature and global ice volume over the past 420 ka, Quaternary Science Reviews 20, p 583-589
Quote:
And if so, why is the modern level of CO2 currently higher than any recorded level in the past half million years or so, but the current average global temperature has NOT yet exceeded record temperatures? By your model, we should long ago have seen blistering temperatures and only now should CO2 be rising, having been "released" by the heat that, according to you, "clearly" precedes such events.
you're assuming there is only one element affecting climate....there are a host of competing variables that at any given time contribute to rising temperatures and/or rising CO2 levels. There is no argument that man has contributed greatly to CO2 increases since the mid part of the last century. The important point to remember is the lag time between temperature rise and CO2 rise isn't months, years or tens of years ...it is hundreds of years.
Quote:
So you're saying heat releases CO2, but the plants and the ocean -- the places the CO2 ought to be released from -- hold onto the CO2.
Does this actually make sense to you?
Uhh, me and pretty much every scientist whose ever picked up a natural science journal.
Cebrian, J. 2002. Variability and control of carbon consumption, export, and accumulation in marine communities. Limnology and Oceanography 47: 11-22.
Talks about the important ability of marshes to sequester carbon
Wang, Z.A. and Cai, W.-J. 2004. Carbon dioxide degassing and inorganic carbon export from a marsh-dominated estuary (the Duplin River): A marsh CO2 pump. Limnology and Oceanography 49: 341-354.
Talks about the CO2 pump mechanism where CO2 fixation in marshes occurs followed by degassing and further fixation. A classic buffer.
Hussein, A.H. and Rabenhorst, M.C. 2002. Modeling of nitrogen sequestration in coastal marsh soils. Soil Science Society of America Journal 66: 324-330.
Quote:
The negative feedback effect is initiated by the photosynthetic removal of CO2 from the atmosphere by tidal-marsh vegetation and magnified by the enhanced sequestration of the biologically-captured carbon in submerged organic soils, which process is driven by rising sea levels that are sustained by the rising temperature. This interim effect of enhanced organic matter sequestration either lowers the air's CO2 content, stabilizes it, or slows its rate of rise, which leads to a reduction in the atmosphere's greenhouse effect that either reverses, stops or slows the temperature rise.
Wolf-Gladrow, D.A., Riebesell, U., Burkhardt, S. and Bijma, J. 1999. Direct effects of CO2 concentration on growth and isotopic composition of marine plankton. Tellus 51B: 461-476.
increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations may lead to (1) significant increases in phytoplanktonic growth rates, (2) significant increases in carbon:phosphorus ratios in marine phytoplankton, and (3) decreases in biogenic calcification. The three effects noted all tend to increase the ocean's capacity to take up and store atmospheric CO2
Riebesell, U., Schulz, K.G., Bellerby, R.G.J., Botros, M., Fritsche, P., Meyerhofer, M., Neill, C., Nondal, G., Oschlies, A., Wohlers, J. and Zollner, E. 2007. Enhanced biological carbon consumption in a high CO2 ocean. Nature 450: 545-548.
Talks about the increased ability of phytoplankton to take up greater amounts of CO2 in a CO2 enriched environment. The Ocean thus becomes a sink for additional CO2.
Christopher L. Sabine et al., 2004, The Oceanic Sink for Anthropogenic CO2, Science 16, Vol. 305. no. 5682, pp. 367 – 371
Quote:
we estimate a global oceanic anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) sink for the period from 1800 to 1994 of 118 ± 19 petagrams of carbon. The oceanic sink accounts for 48% of the total fossil-fuel and cement-manufacturing emissions
Theres lots more where that came from but I think the point is made.
Quote:
By what mechanism is the excess heat generated in the first place
Posted: Fri Aug 08, 2008 2:40 pm Post subject: Re: Is the world actually Cooling not warming?
Quote:
For the contiguous United States, the average temperature for July was 74.9°F (23.9°C), which was 0.7°F (0.4°C) above the 20th century mean and ranked as the 30th warmest July on record, based on preliminary data.
Almost anecdotal, as we are discussing world wide temperatures, but July for the US was very cool. Rated as 30th since 1890, it was much cooler than the last decade in general. Since the La Nina influence, according to them, ended in June this most likely represents some other variable.
The NOAA world wide temperature data will be released on 8/15.
Posted: Fri Aug 08, 2008 3:00 pm Post subject: Re: Is the world actually Cooling not warming?
shortonoil wrote:
dohboi said:
The world land & ocean temperature differential between the ‘02-’07 six month mean and the first six months of ‘08 was 0.242 F. That is several orders of magnitude greater than anything that is shown on the graph posted by wxman to demonstrate La Nina cooling. On that bases alone, there is no evidence to support that we are even talking about the same pheromone.
Actually if you notice, there was no periods of cooling, just some plateaus between 1980 and 2000. Even the very strong ‘98-99 La Nina did not produce a cooler year.
With the ‘08 La Nina having come to an end, the next few months should be interesting. The July ‘08 data should be published by the NOAA shortly. If the world is continuing to display its cooling trend, the La Nina as the only explanation for the cooler weather will have to be discarded.
Joined: May 22, 2004 Posts: 1438 Location: Ottawa, Ontario
Posted: Sat Aug 09, 2008 1:03 am Post subject: Re: Is the world actually Cooling not warming?
rockdoc wrote:
look at the curve. There is first a rise in temperature followed in the next couple of hundred years by a rise in CO2....does temperature rise immediately after that? Absolutely not, in fact it mostly falls.
Not sure what data you are looking at but it isn't from Vostok or any of the other published information.
From the graphs, the lag is on the order of hundreds of years while the up slope of the peaks is on the order of thousands of years. There is a period of overlap where the temperature is rising at the same time that the CO2 is rising.
I'm looking at the Vostok graph and I don't know how you can say "in fact it mostly falls" unless you are looking at the peak CO2 and asking what happens to the temperature immediately after that. There are certainly some periods in that graph that makes me wonder what is driving the temperature but when the CO2 first derivative is strongly positive the temperature first derivative is usually also positive. _________________ Biofuels: The "What else we got to burn?" answer to peak oil.
What is it exactly that I am supposed to deduce from that set of numbers? Warming relative to what? The previous month, previous year, 1890 to present mean. Without a description of the data, it is sort of useless!
Posted: Sat Aug 16, 2008 12:55 pm Post subject: Re: Is the world actually Cooling not warming?
NOAA JULY ‘08 CLIMATE REPORT
July ‘08 turned out to be another very cool month for the world. This is seven months in a row that world ocean and land temperatures have dropped below the ‘02 to ‘07 mean. The last seven months have been much cooler than the same period of the previous six years (which is all we have data for).
After the new year begins, we will be able to compare temperatures on a long term bases to establish a trend. If global warming has been primarily the result of jet exhaust, as NASA has stated, this will be very good news. With oil’s declining energy contribution getting to the critical point, coal, which the US has an adequate reserve of, can be used to augment some of oil’s decline without the fear of cooking the planet.
Of course, we will need “clean coal” technologies to advert poisoning the planet with heavy metals, but some good advances have been made in that area recently.
Joined: Aug 26, 2005 Posts: 1009 Location: "Mad as Hell !"
Posted: Sat Aug 16, 2008 9:04 pm Post subject: Re: Is the world actually Cooling not warming?
shortonoil wrote:
NOAA JULY ‘08 CLIMATE REPORT
July ‘08 turned out to be another very cool month for the world. This is seven months in a row that world ocean and land temperatures have dropped below the ‘02 to ‘07 mean. The last seven months have been much cooler than the same period of the previous six years (which is all we have data for).
After the new year begins, we will be able to compare temperatures on a long term bases to establish a trend. If global warming has been primarily the result of jet exhaust, as NASA has stated, this will be very good news. With oil’s declining energy contribution getting to the critical point, coal, which the US has an adequate reserve of, can be used to augment some of oil’s decline without the fear of cooking the planet.
Of course, we will need “clean coal” technologies to advert poisoning the planet with heavy metals, but some good advances have been made in that area recently.
What are you talking about? The NOAA monthly report puts this past July well within the top 10.
Global Warming is primarily due to jet exhaust? I understood the cause to be over weight American's thighs rubbing together.
NOAA wrote:
Based on preliminary data, the globally averaged combined land and sea surface temperature was the fifth warmest on record for July and the ninth warmest for the January-July year-to-date period.
The ranks found in the tables are based on records that began in 1880.
The combined global land and ocean surface temperature tied with 2001 and 2003 as the fifth warmest July on record, while the January-July year-to-date was the ninth warmest on record.
_________________ The things that will destroy America are prosperity-at-any-price, peace-at-any-price, safety-first instead of duty-first, the love of soft living, and the get-rich-quick theory of life.
... Theodore Roosevelt
Posted: Sun Aug 17, 2008 10:07 am Post subject: Re: Is the world actually Cooling not warming?
Lore said:
Quote:
What are you talking about? The NOAA monthly report puts this past July well within the top 10.
The July-January mean is still more than 2.5 std. from the ‘02-07 mean for the same period. ‘02 was the first year that we had monthly data. There is still less than a 2.5% chance that July-Jan ‘08 is from the same population as the last six years.
Quote:
Global Warming is primarily due to jet exhaust? I understood the cause to be over weight American's thighs rubbing together.
If you can provide as thorough a study as NASA has to back that statement up, it would be interesting reading?
Posted: Sun Aug 17, 2008 2:35 pm Post subject: Re: Is the world actually Cooling not warming?
There certainly appears to be a lag time between elevated temperatures and elevated CO2 levels. If this is true, then what elevated the temperatures to begin with? Methane could be the culprit in this scenario, acting as an undetectable third variable. Being 21 times more powerful a greenhouse gas than CO2, it has a half life of less than 100 years. It breaks down into CO2 and H2O. Elevating temperatures and CO2 levels.
Even though there are 4000 trillion tons of methane hydrate on the continental shelves to drive this process, I doubt that it will be seriously considered. There is no way to detect methane levels 400,000 years ago, so this obvious connection won’t be looked at!
What is it exactly that I am supposed to deduce from that set of numbers? Warming relative to what? The previous month, previous year, 1890 to present mean. Without a description of the data, it is sort of useless!
Posted: Sun Aug 17, 2008 3:22 pm Post subject: Re: Is the world actually Cooling not warming?
shortonoil wrote:
There certainly appears to be a lag time between elevated temperatures and elevated CO2 levels. If this is true, then what elevated the temperatures to begin with? Methane could be the culprit in this scenario, acting as an undetectable third variable. Being 21 times more powerful a greenhouse gas than CO2, it has a half life of less than 100 years. It breaks down into CO2 and H2O. Elevating temperatures and CO2 levels.
Even though there are 4000 trillion tons of methane hydrate on the continental shelves to drive this process, I doubt that it will be seriously considered. There is no way to detect methane levels 400,000 years ago, so this obvious connection won’t be looked at!
Posted: Sun Aug 17, 2008 4:18 pm Post subject: Re: Is the world actually Cooling not warming?
Sea surface temperatures have been cooling significantly since 2003.
Quote:
The cause of the recent cooling is not yet clear. Research suggests it may be due to a net loss of heat from the Earth. "Further work will be necessary to solve this cooling mystery," he said.
Sorry about pointing out the obvious, but wouldn't the recent dramatic melt-off of polar ice caps cause a short term cooling of sea surface temperatures?
An influx of less-dense but colder fresh water from the Greenland melt-off would tend to remain in the upper ocean longer, thus reducing the average surface temperature. Winds blowing over the cooler sea-surface would then become cooler, thus increasing the perception that the climate is becoming cooler. The loss of stored ice would lead to a short-term cooling period. _________________ "I eat the pretzel, it get stuck in the throat and I pass out..." - George W Bush
March 7, 2007 Remarks by the President to Political Appointees
Posted: Sun Aug 17, 2008 4:50 pm Post subject: Re: Is the world actually Cooling not warming?
gw wrote:
Sea surface temperatures have been cooling significantly since 2003.
Quote:
The cause of the recent cooling is not yet clear. Research suggests it may be due to a net loss of heat from the Earth. "Further work will be necessary to solve this cooling mystery," he said.
Sorry about pointing out the obvious, but wouldn't the recent dramatic melt-off of polar ice caps cause a short term cooling of sea surface temperatures?
An influx of less-dense but colder fresh water from the Greenland melt-off would tend to remain in the upper ocean longer, thus reducing the average surface temperature. Winds blowing over the cooler sea-surface would then become cooler, thus increasing the perception that the climate is becoming cooler. The loss of stored ice would lead to a short-term cooling period.
IIRC, it takes a very long time for that meltwater to be propagated throughout the oceans. so if you are saying there's a surface cooling across all the earth's oceans, then i don't think we can account for it by pointing at the melting caps.
Joined: Dec 09, 2004 Posts: 493 Location: Around somewhere
Posted: Sun Aug 17, 2008 7:14 pm Post subject: Re: Is the world actually Cooling not warming?
No data here but 2008 has been a very cool spring and summer in Illinois. Temps in the high 50s sometimes at night in August. One of the nicest summers I have experienced in my lifetime and I lived in San Diego for 8 years.
No sunspots yet. plus the La nina. Maybe thats it. Hope this doesn't mean a cold winter.
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